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Next Australian federal election
← 2016
On or before 18 May 2019 (half-Senate)

On or before 2 November 2019 (House of Representatives)

All 151 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls
  Malcolm Turnbull Anthony Albanese
Leader Malcolm Turnbull Anthony Albanese
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 14 September 2015 (2015-09-14) 13 October 2013 (2013-10-13)
Leader's seat Wentworth [[Division of Grayndler|Grayndler]
Last election 76 seats 69 seats
Current seats 76 seats 69 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase7
2016 TPP 50.36% 49.64%
TPP polling 47% 53%
  Richard Di Natale Nick Xenophon
Leader Richard Di Natale Nick Xenophon
Party Greens Xenophon Team
Leader since 6 May 2015 (2015-05-06) 1 June 2013 (2013-06-01)
Leader's seat Senator for Victoria Not Contesting
Last election 1 seat 1 seat
Current seats 1 seat 1 seat
Seats needed Increase75 Increase75
  Bob Katter
Leader Bob Katter
Party Katter's Australian
Leader since 3 June 2011 (2011-06-03)
Leader's seat Kennedy
Last election 1 seat
Current seats 1 seat
Seats needed Increase75
Incumbent Prime minister

Malcolm Turnbull
Liberal/National coalition



The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 double dissolution federal election.

Except for another double dissolution, the next election must be held between 4 August 2018 and 18 May 2019 for half of the Senators (from the States) and on or before 2 November 2019 for the House of Representatives and the Senators from the territories.

Australia has compulsory voting; it uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single member seats for the lower house, the House of Representatives (currently 150 seats, but will be 151 seats at the next election),[1] and optional-preference single transferable voting in the proportionally represented upper house, the 76-seat Senate.

Previous election edit

Main article: Australian federal election, 2016

Though federal election outcomes are traditionally called by political commentators on election night, even during the following day the outcome could not be predicted, with many close seats in doubt.[2][3][4][5][6] After a week of vote counting, still no party had won enough seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives to form a majority government.[7][8][9] Neither the incumbent Turnbull Government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of the Liberal/National Coalition nor the Shorten Opposition led by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of the Australian Labor Party were in a position to concede defeat or claim victory.[10][11] Many political commentators predicted a hung parliament such as occurred at the 2010 election.[9][12][13]

Turnbull repeatedly claimed prior to the election that a vote for a Labor, Green or Independent candidate was a vote for "the Labor/Green/Independent alliance",[14][15] and also refused to countenance a hung parliament.[16] However, during the uncertain week following the election, Turnbull negotiated with the crossbench and secured confidence and supply support from Bob Katter and from independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan in the event of a hung parliament and resulting minority government.[17] During crossbench negotiations, Turnbull pledged additional staff and resources for crossbenchers, and stated "It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament".[18] On 10 July, eight days after the election took place and following Turnbull's negotiations with the crossbench where he secured sufficient confidence and supply support, Shorten conceded defeat, acknowledging that the incumbent Coalition had enough seats to form either a minority or majority government. Turnbull claimed victory later that day.[19] In the closest federal majority result since the 1961 election, the ABC declared on 11 July that the incumbent Coalition would be able to form a one-seat majority government.[20] It was the first election result since federation where the post-election opposition won more seats than the post-election government in both of Australia's two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.[21]

Result edit

See also: Results of the Australian federal election, 2016 (House of Representatives)
See also: Senate results for the Australian federal election, 2016

In the 150-seat House of Representatives, the one-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government suffered a 14-seat swing, reducing it to 76 seats, a bare one-seat majority. Resulting from the national three percent two-party swing against the government, the Labor opposition picked up a significant number of previously government-held seats − totaling 69 seats. On the crossbench the Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team, Katter's Australian Party, and independents Wilkie and McGowan won a seat each. On 19 July the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced a re-count for the Coalition-held but provisionally Labor-won Division of Herbert. At the start of the Herbert re-count, Labor led by eight votes.[22][23] The AEC announced on 31 July that Labor had won Herbert by 37 votes.[24][25][26]

The final outcome in the 76-seat Australian Senate took over four weeks to complete despite significant voting changes. Earlier in 2016, legislation changed the Senate voting system from a full-preference single transferable vote with group voting tickets to an optional-preferential single transferable vote.[27] The final Senate result was announced on 4 August: Liberal/National Coalition 30 seats (−3), Labor 26 seats (+1), Greens 9 seats (−1), One Nation 4 seats (+4) and Nick Xenophon Team 3 seats (+2). Derryn Hinch won a seat, while Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm and Family First's Bob Day retained their seats. The number of crossbenchers increased by two to a record 20. The Liberal/National Coalition will require at least nine additional votes to reach a Senate majority, an increase of three.[28][29][30] As per convention, the government and opposition agreed to support a motion in the parliament that the first six senators elected in each state would serve a six-year term, while the last six elected would serve a three-year term.[31][32][33][34][35]

Marginal seat pendulum edit

Main article: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016

Based on the 2016 post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, this Mackerras pendulum has the Liberal/National Coalition government on 76 of 150 seats with the Labor opposition on 69 seats and a crossbench of five seats.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require Labor with 51.0% of the two-party vote from a 1.4-point two-party swing or greater, while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require the Coalition with 49.8% of the two-party vote from a 0.6-point two-party swing or greater.

The key marginal seats are as follows:

Marginal Coalition seats
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.63
^^^ Government loses majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 50.63
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 50.73
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 51.04
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 51.14
Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks LIB 51.24
Dunkley (Vic) Chris Crewther LIB 51.43
^^^ Opposition wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.44
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 51.46
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 51.60
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 51.65
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 51.95 v NXT
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 52.05
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.30
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 53.13
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 53.34
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.39
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB 53.50
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 53.59
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 53.63
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 53.95
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 54.56 v IND
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 54.69
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 54.74 v NXT
Murray (Vic) Damian Drum NAT 55.13 v LIB
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 55.68
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 55.89
Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP 55.92
Marginal Labor seats
Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 50.02
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 50.58
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.68
Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 50.79
Batman (Vic) David Feeney ALP 51.03 v GRN
Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.11
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.38
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.60
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.19
Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 52.20
Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 52.31
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.93
Perth (WA) Tim Hammond ALP 53.33
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.74
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 53.96
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.02
Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP 54.08
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 54.65
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 54.67
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.81
Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP 54.88 v GRN
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 55.32
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 55.73
 
150-seat House of Representatives Government (75)
Coalition
  Liberal (45)
  LNP (21)[a]
  National (9)

Opposition (69)
  Labor (69)

Crossbench (5)
  Greens (1)
  Xenophon (1)
  Katter (1)
  Independent (2)[b]  
 
76-seat Senate Government (30)
Coalition
  Liberal (21)
  LNP (5)[c]
  National (3)
  CLP (1)[d]

Opposition (26)
  Labor (26)

Crossbench (20)
  Greens (9)
  One Nation (4)
  Xenophon (3)
  Family First (1)
  Liberal Democrat (1)
  Hinch (1)
  Lambie (1)  

Retiring MPs and senators edit

Members and senators who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

House Of Representatives edit

Electorate Departing MP Party First Elected Date Announced
Adelaide Kate Ellis Labor 2004 9 March 2017[36]

Senate edit

State Departing Senator Party First Elected Date Announced
NSW John Williams National 2007 31 May 2016[37]
NSW Doug Cameron Labor 2007 24 July 2016[38]

Opinion polls edit

Graphical summary edit

 
Two-party-preferred vote.
 
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

Voting intention edit

House of Representatives (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
11−15 Jan 2018 Essential[39] 37% 38% 9% 6% 10% 47% '53%
14−17 Dec 2017 Newspoll[40] 36% 37% 10% 7% 10% 47% 53%
30 Nov − 3 Dec 2017 Newspoll[41] 36% 37% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
29 Nov 2017 ReachTEL[42] 33% 36% 10% 9% 12% 47% 53%
21 Nov 2017 Essential[43] 35% 38% 9% 8% 7% 46% 54%
14 Nov 2017 YouGov[44] 31% 34% 11% 11% 14% 48% 52%
14 Nov 2017 Essential[45] 36% 38% 9% 8% 7% 46% 54%
13 Nov 2017 Newspoll[46] 34% 38% 9% 10% 9% 45% 55%
30 Oct 2017 Essential[47] 36% 37% 10% 7% 6% 46% 54%
26-29 Oct 2017 Newspoll 35% 37% 10% 9% 9% 46% 54%
24 Oct 2017 Essential[48] 37% 36% 9% 8% 10% 48% 52%
12-15 Oct 2017 Newspoll 36% 37% 10% 9% 8% 46% 54%
4 Oct 2017 Essential[49] 36% 38% 10% 7% 7% 46% 54%
1 Oct 2017 ReachTEL[50] 36% 38% 9% 8% 9% 47% 53%
26 Sep 2017 Essential[51] 37% 37% 10% 7% 9% 47% 53%
21–24 Sep 2017 Newspoll[52] 36% 38% 9% 8% 9% 46% 54%
19 Sep 2017 Essential[53] 38% 36% 10% 8% 8% 48% 52%
14–18 Sep 2017 YouGov[54] 34% 35% 11% 9% 11% 50% 50%
12 Sep 2017 Essential[55] 36% 37% 10% 9% 8% 46% 54%
6–9 Sep 2017 Ipsos[56][57] 35% 34% 14% 1% 15% 47% 53%
5 Sep 2017 Essential[55] 36% 37% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
31 Aug – 4 Sep 2017 YouGov[58] 34% 32% 12% 9% 13% 50% 50%
28 Aug – 2 Sep 2017 Newspoll[59] 37% 38% 9% 8% 8% 47% 53%
29 Aug 2017 Essential[60] 37% 36% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
23 Aug 2017 ReachTEL[61] 34.5% 36.7% 10.3% 10.4% 8.2% 48% 52%
22 Aug 2017 Essential[62] 37% 37% 9% 8% 9% 47% 53%
17–21 Aug 2017 YouGov[63] 34% 33% 10% 10% 13% 51% 49%
17–20 Aug 2017 Newspoll[64] 35% 38% 9% 9% 9% 46% 54%
15 Aug 2017 Essential[65] 37% 39% 9% 8% 7% 46% 54%
8 Aug 2017 Essential[66] 37% 39% 9% 8% 7% 46% 54%
3–6 Aug 2017 Newspoll[67] 36% 36% 11% 8% 9% 47% 53%
1 Aug 2017 Essential[68] 38% 36% 10% 8% 8% 48% 52%
25 Jul 2017 Essential[69] 38% 37% 10% 7% 8% 47% 53%
20–24 Jul 2017 YouGov[70] 36% 33% 10% 8% 13% 50% 50%
20–23 Jul 2017 Newspoll[71] 36% 37% 9% 9% 9% 47% 53%
19 Jul 2017 ReachTEL[72] 37.2% 35.1% 8.8% 11.7% 7.2% 49% 51%
18 Jul 2017 Essential[73] 36% 38% 10% 7% 9% 46% 54%
6–11 Jul 2017 YouGov[74] 36% 33% 12% 7% 12% 52% 48%
6–9 Jul 2017 Newspoll[75] 35% 36% 10% 11% 8% 47% 53%
29 Jun 2017 ReachTEL[76] 36.4% 35.4% 10.2% 9.6% 8.3% 48% 52%
22–27 Jun 2017 YouGov[77] 33% 34% 12% 7% 14% 49% 51%
15–18 Jun 2017 Newspoll[78] 36% 37% 9% 11% 7% 47% 53%
14 Jun 2017 Essential[79] 38% 36% 10% 8% 8% 48% 52%
26–29 May 2017 Newspoll[80] 36% 36% 10% 9% 9% 47% 53%
23 May 2017 Essential[81] 37% 38% 10% 6% 9% 46% 54%
12–15 May 2017 Newspoll[82] 36% 36% 10% 9% 9% 47% 53%
11 May 2017 ReachTEL[83] 38% 34.1% 10.9% 11% 6% 47% 53%
10–11 May 2017 Ipsos[84] 37% 35% 13% 2% 13% 47% 53%
26–30 Apr 2017 Essential[85] 38% 37% 9% 7% 9% 47% 53%
20–23 Apr 2017 Newspoll[86] 36% 35% 9% 10% 10% 48% 52%
13–16 Apr 2017 Essential[87] 36% 37% 10% 8% 10% 46% 54%
6–9 Apr 2017 Essential[88] 37% 36% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
1–4 Apr 2017 Essential[89] 37% 36% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
30 Mar – 2 Apr 2017 Newspoll[90] 36% 36% 10% 10% 8% 47% 53%
24–27 Mar 2017 Essential[91] 35% 37% 10% 8% 11% 46% 54%
22–25 Mar 2017 Ipsos[92][93] 33% 34% 16% 2% 15% 45% 55%
17–20 Mar 2017 Essential[94] 34% 37% 9% 10% 9% 45% 55%
16–19 Mar 2017 Newspoll[95] 37% 35% 9% 10% 9% 48% 52%
10–13 Mar 2017 Essential[96] 35% 36% 9% 11% 9% 47% 53%
3–6 Mar 2017 Essential[97] 37% 37% 9% 9% 8% 47% 53%
23–26 Feb 2017 Newspoll[98] 34% 37% 10% 10% 9% 45% 55%
16–19 Feb 2017 Essential[99] 36% 34% 10% 10% 10% 48% 52%
9–12 Feb 2017 Essential[100] 36% 35% 9% 10% 9% 48% 52%
2–5 Feb 2017 Newspoll[101] 35% 36% 10% 8% 11% 46% 54%
20–23 Jan 2017 Essential[102] 35% 37% 10% 9% 8% 46% 54%
13–16 Jan 2017 Essential[103] 38% 37% 9% 8% 8% 47% 53%
12 Jan 2017 ReachTEL[104] 37.1% 35.0% 9.8% 10.6% 7.5% 46% 54%
9–12 Dec 2016 Essential[105] 37% 37% 9% 7% 9% 47% 53%
1–4 Dec 2016 Newspoll[106] 39% 36% 10% 5% 10% 48% 52%
25–28 Nov 2016 Essential[107] 39% 36% 9% 7% 9% 49% 51%
24–26 Nov 2016 Ipsos[108] 36% 30% 16% 7% 9% 49% 51%
17–20 Nov 2016 Newspoll[109] 38% 38% 10% 4% 10% 47% 53%
11–14 Nov 2016 Essential[110] 37% 37% 11% 6% 9% 47% 53%
3–6 Nov 2016 Newspoll[111] 39% 38% 10% – 13% 47% 53%
20–23 Oct 2016 Newspoll[112] 39% 37% 10% 5% 9% 48% 52%
14–17 Oct 2016 Essential[113] 37% 37% 11% 5% 9% 47% 53%
7–10 Oct 2016 Essential[114] 38% 36% 10% 6% 10% 48% 52%
6–9 Oct 2016 Newspoll[115] 39% 36% 10% 6% 9% 48% 52%
22–25 Sep 2016 Newspoll[116] 38% 37% 10% – 15% 48% 52%
9–12 Sep 2016 Essential[117] 38% 37% 10% 5% 11% 48% 52%
8–11 Sep 2016 Newspoll[118] 41% 36% 9% – 14% 50% 50%
26–29 Aug 2016 Essential[119] 40% 37% 10% – 13% 49% 51%
25–28 Aug 2016 Newspoll[120] 41% 36% 9% – 14% 50% 50%
19–22 Aug 2016 Essential[121] 39% 36% 10% – 15% 49% 51%
12–15 Aug 2016 Essential[122] 39% 37% 10% – 14% 48% 52%
5–8 Aug 2016 Essential[123] 40% 37% 10% – 13% 48% 52%
27 Jul – 1 Aug 2016 Essential[124] 39% 37% 10% – 14% 48% 52%
20–24 Jul 2016 Essential[125] 39% 37% 10% – 14% 48% 52%
13–17 Jul 2016 Essential[126] 39% 36% 10% – 15% 49% 51%
6–10 Jul 2016 Essential[127] 41% 36% 10% – 13% 49% 51%
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2016 Essential[128] 41% 37% 10% – 12% 50% 50%
2 Jul 2016 election 42.0% 34.7% 10.2% 1.3% 11.8% 50.4% 49.6%
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll[129] 42% 35% 10% – 13% 50.5% 49.5%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL[130] 42.8% 34.6% 10.7% – 12% 51% 49%
27–30 Jun 2016 Essential[131] 42.5% 34.5% 11.5% – 12% 50.5% 49.5%
28–29 Jun 2016 Galaxy[132] 43% 36% 10% – 11% 51% 49%
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos[133] 40% 33% 13% – 14% 50% 50%

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction edit

Leadership polling ^
Date Firm Preferred prime minister Turnbull Shorten
Turnbull Shorten Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
26–30 Apr 2017 Essential[85] 39% 28% 35% 47% 33% 47%
20–23 Apr 2017 Newspoll[86] 42% 33% 32% 57% 33% 53%
30 Mar – 2 Apr 2017 Newspoll[90] 41% 32% 30% 59% 32% 54%
22–25 Mar 2017 Ipsos[92] 45% 33% - - - -
17–20 Mar 2017 Essential[94] 43% 29% - - - -
16–19 Mar 2017 Newspoll[95] 43% 29% 30% 57% 29% 57%
10–13 Mar 2017 Essential[96] 38% 26% 33% 50% 30% 49%
23–26 Feb 2017 Newspoll[134] 40% 33% 29% 59% 30% 56%
2–5 Feb 2017 Newspoll[101] 42% 30% 35% 54% 32% 54%
1–4 Dec 2016 Newspoll[106] 41% 32% 32% 55% 34% 51%
24–26 Nov 2016 Ipsos[108] 51% 30% 45% 45% 37% 53%
17–20 Nov 2016 Newspoll[109] 43% 33% 34% 54% 36% 51%
3–6 Nov 2016 Newspoll[111] 42% 32% 30% 58% 36% 51%
20–23 Oct 2016 Newspoll[112] 42% 32% 29% 57% 36% 51%
6–9 Oct 2016 Newspoll[115] 45% 30% 31% 56% 35% 51%
9–12 Sep 2016 Essential[117] 41% 26% 35% 43% 36% 41%
8–11 Sep 2016 Newspoll[118] 43% 31% 34% 53% 35% 52%
25–28 Aug 2016 Newspoll[120] 43% 32% 34% 52% 36% 50%
5–8 Aug 2016 Essential[123] 40% 30% 38% 43% 37% 41%
6–10 Jul 2016 Essential[127] 39% 31% 37% 48% 39% 41%
2 Jul 2016 election
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll[129] 48% 31% 40% 47% 36% 51%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL[130] 52.9% 47.1% - - - -
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos[133] 49% 35% 49% 41% 42% 50%
23–26 Jun 2016 Essential[135] 40% 29% 40% 40% 37% 39%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Timeline edit

  • 30 August 2016 — First sitting of 45th Parliament

Election date edit

Section 13 of the Constitution of Australia requires that in half-Senate elections the election of State senators must take place within one year before the places become vacant. As the terms of half the senators end on 30 June 2019, the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2018, and the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is 4 August 2018.[136] There is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, and there are precedents for separate elections; however, governments and the electorate have long preferred that elections for the two Houses take place simultaneously. The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the new senators take office on 1 July 2019. This took over a month in 2016, so practically the half-Senate election needs to be held no later than 18 May 2019.

A House-only election can be called at any time during the parliamentary term. Whether held simultaneously with an election for the Senate or separately, an election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before 2 November 2019,[136] which is calculated under provisions of the Constitution and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA). Section 28 of the Constitution provides that the term of a House of Representatives expires three years from the first sitting of the House, unless it is dissolved earlier. The last federal election was held on 2 July 2016. The 45th Parliament opened on 30 August 2016[137] and its term would expire on 29 August 2019.[138] Writs for election can be issued up to ten days after a dissolution or expiry of the House.[139] Up to 27 days can be allowed for nominations,[140] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations,[141] resulting in the latest election date for the House of Representatives of Saturday, 2 November 2019.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[142] That means any double dissolution must be granted by 28 February 2019. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 4 May 2019.[136] This could only occur if a bill that had passed the House of Representatives was rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

Constitutional and legal provisions edit

The Constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[143]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[144] Since the 45th Parliament of Australia opened on 30 August 2016, it will expire on 29 August 2019.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 29 August 2019 is 8 September 2019.
  • Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[140] Twenty-seven days after 8 September 2019 is 5 October 2019.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".[141] Thirty-one days after 5 October 2019 is 5 November 2019, a Tuesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[145] The Saturday before 5 November 2019 is 2 November 2019. This is therefore the latest possible date for the lower house election.

Redistributions edit

Changes to representation entitlement edit

A South Australian seat will be abolished due to national population shifts which have occurred since the state's last redistribution in 2011—although South Australia's population is still increasing, faster increases in other states will see a reduction in South Australia's representation from 11 to 10 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives. South Australia only relatively recently experienced this, twice, with the seats of Bonython and Hawker ending in 2004 and 1993 respectively. South Australia held a state-record 13 seats between the 1984 enlargement of parliament until 1993. For almost a century beforehand, only one other single-member seat was ever abolished in South Australia, Angas and Angas' earlier incarnation. South Australia is the least-populated state where the current number of seats can decrease, as Tasmania's current representation is the minimum guaranteed by the Constitution.[146][147][148]

Under the new census figures released on 27 June 2017, the Parliamentary Library calculated that under the new numbers, the next election will be held to elect 151 MPs, with one lost in South Australia, and one gain each in Victoria and the ACT.[149]

On 31 August 2017, the Australian Electoral Commission announced that a redistribution of federal electoral divisions will be required in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. As a result of the determination the total number of members to be elected to the House of Representatives at the election will increase from 150 to 151 members.[150] Victoria's number of seats will increase to 38 (+1), the Australian Capital Territory's number of seats will increase to 3 (+1), and South Australia's number of seats will decrease to 10 (−1).[150] If a redistribution is not completed by the time of the election, the AEC can invoke a never-used provision to perform a rapid mini-redistribution based on divisional enrolment figures.[151] A parliamentary library paper suggested the two outer rural South Australian Liberal seats of Barker and Grey would likely be combined into one.[152][153][154]

Northern Territory edit

On 7 December 2016, the augmented Electoral Commission for the Northern Territory announced the results of its deliberations into the boundaries of Lingiari and Solomon, the two federal electoral divisions in the Northern Territory. New boundaries gazetted from 7 February 2017 will see the remainder of the Litchfield Municipality and parts of Palmerston (the suburbs of Farrar, Johnston, Mitchell, Zuccoli and part of Yarrawonga) transferred from Solomon to Lingiari. Both divisions will retain their current names.[155]

Tasmania edit

A scheduled redistribution began in Tasmania on 1 September 2016, and will be finalised in November 2017.[156] The determinations were announced on 27 September 2017. In addition to boundary changes, the Division of Denison will be renamed the Division of Clark after Andrew Inglis Clark.[157]

Queensland edit

A scheduled redistribution began in Queensland on 6 January 2017, and is expected to be finalised in March 2018.[158]

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ 15 LNP MPs sit in the Liberal party room and 6 in the National party room
  2. ^ Current independent MPs: Andrew Wilkie (Denison) and Cathy McGowan (Indi).
  3. ^ 3 LNP Senators sit in the Liberal party room and 2 in the National party room
  4. ^ Sits in National party room

References edit

  1. ^ "Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives". Australian Electoral Commission. 31 August 2017. Retrieved 31 December 2017.
  2. ^ "Insiders 90-minute post-election program". ABC TV. 3 July 2016.
  3. ^ "Swing against Malcolm Turnbull's Coalition leaves election on a knife-edge". ABC News. Australia. 2 July 2016.
  4. ^ "We don't have a winner, so what happens now?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016.
  5. ^ "What. Just. Happened?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016.
  6. ^ "How the night unfolded with no clear winner". The Guardian. Australia. 3 July 2016.
  7. ^ "Election 2016: Ballot count could take a month to finalise, AEC says". ABC News. Australia. 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  8. ^ Gough, Deborah (3 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: No results until at least ... Tuesday". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  9. ^ a b Smith, Jennifer (3 July 2016). "'I can form a majority government': Malcolm Turnbull's confident he'll win the election and avoid a hung parliament as Bill Shorten praises Labor's 'magnificent campaign'... but there may not be a result until TUESDAY". Daily Mail Australia. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
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