Division of Eden-Monaro
Australian House of Representatives Division
|Namesake||Eden and Monaro|
|Area||41,617 km2 (16,068.4 sq mi)|
The division was proclaimed in 1900, and was one of the original 65 divisions to be contested at the first federal election. It is named for the town of Eden and the Monaro district of southern New South Wales.
Until 1943 the seat was held by non-Labor parties for all but three years. Since then, it has been consistently marginal, though it was in Labor hands for all but one term from 1943 to 1975. This is mainly because of the seat's demographics. The Eden area tilts toward the Liberals; most of the area is part of the historically safe Liberal state seat of Bega. In contrast, the Monaro area has traditionally been more of a swing area.
Up to the 2016 election, Eden-Monaro was long regarded as Australia's most well-known "bellwether seat". From the 1972 election until the 2013 election, Eden-Monaro was won by the party that also won the election. During this time, all of its sitting members were defeated at the polls – none retired or resigned.
Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy was defeated by Labor's Mike Kelly at the 2016 election. Kelly had previously represented Eden-Monaro from 2007 to 2013. Kelly's 2016 victory made him the seat's first opposition MP elected since 1969. The nation's new bellwether became the seat of Robertson – continually won by the party that also won government since the 1983 election. "Best" bellwether aside, ABC psephologist Antony Green classed a total of eleven electorates as bellwethers in his 2016 election guide.
|Shooters, Fishers, Farmers||Matthew Stadtmiller||5,066||5.34||+5.34|
|Sustainable Australia||Joy Angel||944||0.99||+0.99|
|Liberal Democrats||Dean McCrae||651||0.69||+0.69|
|Christian Democrats||Narelle Storey||614||0.65||−0.52|
|Australian Federation||Jason Potter||170||0.18||+0.18|
|Total formal votes||94,935||93.29||+0.09|