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Division of Lindsay

The Division of Lindsay is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

Lindsay
Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of LINDSAY 2016.png
Division of Lindsay in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election.
Created1984
MPMelissa McIntosh
PartyLiberal
NamesakeNorman Lindsay
Electors118,801 (2019)
Area339 km2 (130.9 sq mi)
DemographicOuter Metropolitan

Ever since Lindsay was first contested at the 1984 federal election the seat had always elected a member of the government of the day − a pattern known as a "bellwether" seat. However, Lindsay's bellwether run ended at the 2016 federal election when Labor's Emma Husar defeated one-term Liberal Fiona Scott. Ahead of the 2016 election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed Lindsay in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed a bellwether electorate.[1]

HistoryEdit

 
Norman Lindsay, the division's namesake

The division is named after Norman Lindsay, the prominent Australian artist, writer and sculptor. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984 and was first contested at the 1984 federal election.

The Division of Lindsay has bellwether status. The 2016 federal election is the only instance where the member to win the seat has not been from the party to form government. This has been widely attributed to Lindsay's buildup as an economically sensitive seat. The mortgage belt status of the electorate means fiscal matters such as interest rates, job security, petrol prices and quality of transportation are always critical issues at federal elections. The geographic buildup of the seat consists of Liberal voting areas in the west, Labor voting areas in the east and swing areas in the centre.

Prior to the 1996 election, it was considered a safe Labor seat, as it was located in Labor's longstanding heartland of west Sydney. This ended in 1996, when then member Ross Free was thrown from office by Liberal challenger Jackie Kelly on a swing of nearly 12 percent. Free was one of 13 New South Wales Labor MPs to lose their seats in Labor's heavy defeat that year. However a by-election was called when it was revealed that questions about Kelly's citizenship raised eligibility problems. Kelly won the subsequent by-election with an additional 6.69% swing towards her.

Kelly announced her retirement in 2007 which, together with the 2006 redistribution, made Lindsay vulnerable to the Labor candidate, Penrith Mayor David Bradbury. In his third bid for the seat, Bradbury won with a swing of 9.7% after distribution of preferences, defeating the unsuccessful Liberal candidate Karen Chijoff. Three days before the 2007 federal election Liberal Party supporters, including Jackie Kelly's husband, were caught in Lindsay distributing fake pamphlets in residents' letterboxes which linked the Labor Party to Islamic terrorism. For more details see Lindsay pamphlet scandal. Bradbury narrowly retained the seat in 2010 against Liberal Fiona Scott, but she defeated him at the 2013 election receiving a favourable swing towards her in both elections of 5.16% in 2010 and 4.11% in 2013.

However, the bellwether streak ended at the 2016 federal election as Labor's Emma Husar defeated Scott to claim the seat, while overall the Liberal/National coalition narrowly retained government.

BoundariesEdit

MembersEdit

Image Member Party Term Notes
    Ross Free
(1943–)
Labor 1 December 1984
2 March 1996
Previously held the Division of Macquarie. Served as minister under Hawke and Keating. Lost seat
    Jackie Kelly
(1964–)
Liberal 2 March 1996
17 October 2007
Served as minister under Howard. Retired
    David Bradbury
(1976–)
Labor 24 November 2007
7 September 2013
Served as minister under Gillard and Rudd. Lost seat
    Fiona Scott
(1977–)
Liberal 7 September 2013
2 July 2016
Lost seat
    Emma Husar
(1980–)
Labor 2 July 2016
11 April 2019
Retired
    Melissa McIntosh
(1977–)
Liberal 18 May 2019
present
Incumbent

Election resultsEdit

2019 Australian federal election: Lindsay[2]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Liberal Melissa McIntosh 45,247 46.45 +7.16
Labor Diane Beamer 34,690 35.61 −5.47
Greens Nick Best 4,781 4.91 +1.33
United Australia Christopher Buttel 2,831 2.91 +2.91
Independent Mark Tyndall 2,785 2.86 +2.86
Conservative National Brandon Lees 2,374 2.44 +2.44
Christian Democrats Mark Moody-Basedow 1,997 2.05 −0.98
Australia First Jim Saleam 1,372 1.41 +0.21
Sustainable Australia Geoff Brown 1,326 1.36 +1.36
Total formal votes 97,403 88.92 +0.69
Informal votes 12,135 11.08 −0.69
Turnout 109,538 92.26 +0.03
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Melissa McIntosh 53,614 55.04 +6.15
Labor Diane Beamer 43,789 44.96 −6.15
Liberal gain from Labor Swing +6.15

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ The Bellwether Contests: Antony Green ABC
  2. ^ Lindsay, NSW, Tally Room 2019, Australian Electoral Commission.

External linksEdit