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2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout71%Increase [1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,804,040 2,649,852
Percentage 50.62% 47.84%
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.[5] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[6] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.

Biden ultimately carried Michigan by a 2.78% margin. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of African American voters.[7] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump massively outperformed his polling average in the state once again, but it was not enough to win the state.

Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay County and Gogebic County, the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, and the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win without winning Macomb County. With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa voting for the losing candidate in this election, Michigan is tied with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the longest bellwether streak of recent times. The last time those states voted against the winning candidate was 2004.

Primary elections

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[8]

2020 Michigan Republican primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 640,552 93.7% 73
Uncommitted 32,743 4.8% 0
Bill Weld 6,099 0.9% 0
Mark Sanford (withdrawn) 4,258 0.6% 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 4,067 0.6% 0
Total 683,431 100% 73

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[10]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)
 
Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 840,360 52.93 73
Bernie Sanders 576,926 36.34 52
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] 73,464 4.63
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] 26,148 1.65
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] 22,462 1.41
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] 11,018 0.69
Tulsi Gabbard 9,461 0.60
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[c] 2,380 0.15
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] 1,732 0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[c] 1,536 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 840 0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 757 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 719 0.05
John Delaney (withdrawn)[d] 464 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 306 0.02
Uncommitted 19,106 1.20
Total 1,587,679 100% 125

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[13] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections[14] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean D (flip)
Politico[16] Lean D (flip)
RCP[17] Tossup
Niskanen[18] Likely D (flip)
CNN[19] Lean D (flip)
The Economist[20] Likely D (flip)
CBS News[21] Lean D (flip)
270towin[22] Lean D (flip)
ABC News[23] Lean D (flip)
NPR[24] Lean D (flip)
NBC News[25] Lean D (flip)
538[26] Solid D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[e] 		Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.9% 44.4% 5.7% Biden +5.5
Real Clear Politics October 29 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.0% 45.8% 4.2% Biden +4.2
FiveThirtyEight until November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 51.2% 43.2% 5.6% Biden +7.9
Average 50.4% 44.5% 5.1% Biden +5.9

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 4,549 (LV) ± 2% 46%[g] 52% - - – –
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 50% - - 2%[h] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 383 (LV) ± 5.01% 44% 51% 3% 1% – 1%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1 413 (LV) ± 6.5% 45% 54% 1% 0% – –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1 654 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[i] 53% 1% 0% 2%[j] –
42%[k] 52% - - 3%[l] 3%
45%[m] 53% - - 2%[n] –
Trafalgar Group Oct 30–31 1,033 (LV) ± 2.97% 48% 46% 2% - 1% 3%
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31 686 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% - - 6% –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 30–31 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% 2% - – 3%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 1,736 (LV) ± 2.0% 44.5% 52% - - – –
Emerson College Oct 29–30 700 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[o] 52% - - 3%[p] –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] Oct 29–30 745 (V) ± 3.6% 44% 54% 1% 0% – 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30 993 (LV) – 39% 53% - - 8%[q] –
CNN/SSRS Oct 23–30 907 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 53% 2% 1% 1%[r] 2%
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Oct 29 817 (LV) ± 3.43% 45% 52% 1% 1% 0%[s] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 27–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44%[i] 51% - - 3% 2%
42%[t] 53% - - 3% 2%
45%[u] 50% - - 3% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 1,212 (LV) – 41% 54% 1% 0% 1% 4%
EPIC-MRA Oct 25–28 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 48% - - 5%[v] 6%[w]
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28 1,058 (LV) ± 2.93% 49% 47% 2% - 1%[x] 1%
Kiaer Research Oct 21–28 669 (LV) ± 5.6% 41% 54% - - 2%[y] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 7,541 (LV) – 45% 53% - - – –
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Oct 25–27 759 (LV) ± 3.56% 42% 52% 3% 0% 0%[z] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 394 (LV) ± 6.7% 40% 59% 2% 0% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 23–26 856 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 49% 2% 1% 0%[aa] 6%[w]
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 20–26 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[i] 53% 1% 0% 2%[j] –
43%[k] 52% - - 3%[l] 3%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 48% - - – –
Glengariff Group/Detroit News Oct 23–25 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% - - 2%[ab] 4%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 20–25 789 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% 3% 0% 0%[ac] 1%
Gravis Marketing Oct 24 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 55% - - – 3%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[C] Oct 21–22 804 (V) – 43% 50% - - – 6%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Oct 13–21 681 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 52% - - 5%[ad] –
Citizen Data Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 41% 50% 1% 0% 1% 7%
Fox News Oct 17–20 1,032 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 52% 3% 0% 2%[ae] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–20 686 (LV) ± 4.3% 44%[i] 52% 2% 0% 2%[j] –
44%[k] 51% - - 3%[l] 2%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 1,717 (LV) ± 2.4% 44% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 718 (LV)[af] – 44% 51% - - – –
EPIC-MRA Oct 15–19 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 5%[ag] 8%[w]
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Oct 18 900 (LV) ± 3.27% 41% 51% 3% 1% 1%[x] 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[D] Oct 15–18 1,034 (LV) ± 2.97% 47% 45% 3% 2% 2%[h] 2%
Data For Progress Oct 15–18 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 50% 2% 0% – 3%
Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News Oct 11–18 2,851 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% - - 2% 3%
HarrisX/The Hill Oct 12–15 1,289 (LV) – 43% 54% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 11–14 1,025 (LV) ± 2.97% 47% 46% 3% 2% 2%[h] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 972 (LV) – 42%[af] 51% 1% 0% – –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 8–13 800 (LV) – 42%[i] 48% 2% 1% 1% 5%
39%[t] 51% 2% 1% 1% 5%
44%[u] 46% 2% 1% 1% 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–13 620 (LV) ± 4.5% 44%[i] 51% 2% 1% 2%[ah] –
43%[k] 51% - - 3%[l] 2%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Oct 8–12 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 4%[ai] 9%[w]
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[E] Oct 8–11 543 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 52% - - 4%[aj] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 6–11 614 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 48% 1% 1% 1%[ak] 8%[w]
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 1,710 (LV) ± 2.4% 44% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 827 (LV) – 41%[af] 51% 2% 1% – –
YouGov/CBS Oct 6–9 1,190 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 52% - - 2%[al] 0%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,134 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 50% 1% 1% 0%[am] 4%
Emerson College Oct 6–7 716 (LV) ± 3.6% 43%[o] 54% - - 2%[h] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 50% 1% 0% 1%[an] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[F] Oct 3–6 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 44%[o] 52% - - 2% 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 6 709 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 51% - - 2%[ao] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 676 (LV) – 43% 51% - - – –
Glengariff Group/Detroit News Sep 30 – Oct 3 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 5%[ap] 7%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] Sep 30 – Oct 1 746 (V) – 44% 50% 2% 1% – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 3,297 (LV) – 44% 53% - - – 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[D] Sep 26–28 1,042 (LV) ± 2.95% 47% 49% 2% 0% 1%[x] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–26 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 1% 0% 0%[aq] 6%
Marist College/NBC Sep 19–23 799 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 52% - - 1% 3%
ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare[G] Sep 17–23 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Sep 20–22 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 46.7% 46.0% 2.1% 0.8% 1.2%[ar] 3.2%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 1,001 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 50% 1% 0% 1%[as] 6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal 		Sep 10–21 641 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 568 (LV) – 43% 51% - - – –
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[H] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 50% - - – –
Data for Progress (D) Sep 14–19 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 42%[i] 48% 1% 0% – 9%
44%[at] 50% - - – 6%
MRG Sep 14–19 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 46% - - 8%[au] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–16 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% - - 2%[ao] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[E] Sep 11–15 517 (RV) – 42% 53% - - 3%[p] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14 930 (LV) ± 3.21% 39% 49% 2% 1% 0%[aq] 9%
EPIC-MRA Sep 10–15 600 (LV) ± 4% 40% 48% - - 5%[ag] 7%[w]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 43% 50% - - 1%[av] 5%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 1,455 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42%[aw] 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 876 (LV) – 43% 49% - - 7%[ax] –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1] Sep 2–3 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 44%[o] 53% - - 3%[ay] –
Glengariff Group Sep 1–3 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 47% - - 4%[az] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3 967 (LV) ± 3.15% 40% 51% 1% 0% 1%[an] 7%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[F] Aug 30 – Sep 2 802 (LV) ± 3.46% 44%[o] 51% 2% 1% 0%[ba] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 2,962 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 3%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 1,424 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42% 52% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] Aug 28–29 897 (V) – 44% 48% 3% 1% – 3%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 809 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Aug 14–23 1,048 (LV) ± 2.98% 47% 45% 3% - 1%[bb] 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–19 812 (LV) – 38% 50% 1% 1% 1%[bc] 9%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[E] Aug 13–17 631 (RV) – 46% 49% - - 3%[p] 1%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 1,212 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 44% 50% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[D] Aug 11–15 600 (LV) – 41% 52% - - – 7%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 413 (LV) – 43% 48% - - – –
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Jul 27 – Aug 6 761 (RV) ± 5.1% 43% 47% - - 5%[bd] 6%
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[I] Jul 30 – Aug 4 1,245 (LV) – 43% 52% - - – –
David Binder Research Jul 30–31 200 (LV) – 41% 51% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 3,083 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 2%
EPIC-MRA Jul 25–30 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 51% 3% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] Jul 28–29 876 (V) – 43% 49% - - 6%[be] 3%
Change Research/CNBC[2] Jul 24–26 413 (LV) – 42% 46% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 1,320 (LV) ± 2.7% 42% 52% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 21–24 1,156 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 48% - - 2%[bf] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–24 811 (LV) – 37% 49% 1% 1% 2%[bg] 10%
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 927 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 52% - - 5%[bh] 2%
Gravis Marketing[3] Jul 22 754 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 51% - - – 7%
Fox News Jul 18–20 756 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% - - 4%[bi] 7%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[D] Jul 13–16 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% - - – 7%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[J] Jul 11–16 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 45% - - – 5%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 824 (LV) – 42% 48% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)[K] Jul 9–10 1,041 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 51% - - – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 1,238 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – 3%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 699 (LV)[af] – 43% 48% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[B] Jun 26–27 1,237 (V) – 44% 50% - - 5%[bj] 1%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Jun 17–20 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 56% - - 2%[bk] 7%
Trafalgar Group Jun 16–18 1,101 (LV) ± 2.95% 45% 46% - - 5%[ag] 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–17 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 47% - - 8%[bl] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–16 826 (LV) ± 3.41% 36% 47% 2% 1% 2%[bm] 12%
TargetPoint Jun 11–16 1,000 (A) – 33% 49% - - 4%[bn] 14%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 353 (LV)[af] – 45% 47% - - 3%[bo] –
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[A] Jun 9–12 859 (LV) – 38% 51% - - 4%[bp] 7%
Kiaer Research May 31 – Jun 7 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 35% 50% - - 6%[bq] 8%
EPIC-MRA May 31 – Jun 4 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 55% - - – –
EPIC-MRA May 30 – Jun 3 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 53% - - – 6%[w]
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 620 (LV)[af] – 46% 48% - - 3% 3%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] May 29–30 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 44% 50% - - 4%[br] 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 1,325 (LV) – 42% 50% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[L] May 18–19 1,234 (V) ± 2.8% 45% 51% - - – 5%
Change Research/Crooked Media May 11–17 3,070 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 970 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 47% - - 3%[bs] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) May 1–5 600 (LV) ± 3% 42% 50% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[M] Apr 28–29 1,270 (V) – 42% 50% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[N] Apr 20–21 1,277 (RV) – 44% 51% - - – 5%
Fox News Apr 18–21 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 49% - - 3% 6%
Ipsos/Reuters Apr 15–20 612 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 46% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Apr 9–11 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% - - – –
Hart Research/CAP Action[O] Apr 6–8 303 (RV) – 41% 50% - - 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling Mar 31 – Apr 1 1,019 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 48% - - – 7%
SPRY Strategies Mar 30 – Apr 1 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% - - – 8%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 47% - - – 11%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 47% 48% - - 5%
Marketing Resource Group Mar 16–20 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% - - 9%[bt] 6%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 12–16 600 (RV) – 44% 50% - - – –
AtlasIntel Mar 7–9 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 44% - - 10% –
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8 566 (RV) – 41% 45% - - 6%[bu] 7%
Monmouth University Mar 5–8 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 48% - - 2% 9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 46% 44% - - – –
YouGov Feb 11–20 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% - - – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 47% - - 6%[bv] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18 500 (RV) – 43% 43% - - – 14%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[4] Jan 9–12 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 50% - - – 6%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - – 5%

2017–2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 41% 8% [bw] 5% [w]
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 56% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% 45% – –
Target Insyght Sep 24–26, 2019 800 (LV) – 35% 54% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17% –
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 49% 5%[bx] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 46% 11% –
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 7%
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 4%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 42% 45% – 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 4% –
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 53% – 5%
EPIC-MRA Apr 28–30, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 52% – 9%
Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 35% 52% – 13%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 47% 7%[by] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 41% 46% – 13%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[5] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% – 9%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 47% – 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8% [bw] 7% [w]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%[bz] 16%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 41% 47% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 45% 8%[ca] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 44% – 15%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[6] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 47% – 10%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% – 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8% [cb] 6% [w]
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%[bz] 16%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 40% 16% –
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 47% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 6%[cc] 14%
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 9%
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% – 10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 45% 6%[bv] 4%
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% – –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 39% 8% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 45% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 12–16, 2020 600 (RV) – 44% 49% – –
AtlasIntel Mar 7–9, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11% –
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 566 (RV) – 42% 43% 7%[cd] 8%
Monmouth University Mar 5–8, 2020 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 46% 2% 9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7, 2020 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 48% 41% – –
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 48% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 7%[by] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 42% 46% – 12%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[7] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 50% – 5%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 49% – 5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 42% 6% [ce] 5% [w]
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 57% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 42% 46% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17% –
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 47% 4%[cf] 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 44% 12% –
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 5%
Tulchin Research (D)[P] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 52% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 6% –
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 6%
Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 36% 54% – 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 45% 7%[cg] 4%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[8] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% – 7%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% – 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 8% [ch] 6% [w]
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 40% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17% –
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% – 8%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 6%[cc] 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 41% 16% –
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% – 9%
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 10%
Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 37% 46% – 17%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 51% – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Justin
Amash (L) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 10% 6%

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% 4% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% 6% –

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat (D) 		Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 43.2%[ci] 54.0% 2.9%[cj]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 50% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8-20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 36.4%[ci] 50.3% 13.3%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 767 (RV) ± 4% 27% 39% 25%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
EPIC-MRA Jul 25 - 30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 37% 49%[ck] 14%
EPIC-MRA May 31 – Jun 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 33% 51%[ck] 13%[cl]
EPIC-MRA[9] May 30 – Jun 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 38% 51%[ck] 8%[cl]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[10] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 34% 44%[ck] 22%[cm]
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 32% 45%[cn] 23%[co]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Mar 3–7, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 49%[cp] 20%[cq]
Glengariff Group/WDIV/Detroit News[11] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 53% 15%[cr]

General election results

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan[27][28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,804,040 50.62% +3.35%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		2,649,852 47.84% +0.34%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		60,381 1.09% -2.50%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		13,718 0.25% -0.82%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		7,235 0.13% N/A
Natural Law Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		2,986 0.05% N/A
Write-in Brian T. Carroll 963 0.02% +0.01%
Write-in Jade Simmons 89 <0.01% N/A
Write-in Tom Hoefling 32 <0.01% N/A
Write-in 6 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 5,539,302 100.00%

By county

County Joe Biden
Democratic		 Donald Trump
Republican		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % # % #
Alcona 30.32% 2,142 68.63% 4,848 0.71% 50 0.34% 24 7,064
Alger 39.98% 2,053 58.70% 3,014 0.80% 41 0.53% 27 5,135
Allegan 36.39% 24,449 61.60% 41,392 1.40% 943 0.61% 411 67,195
Alpena 35.32% 6,000 62.91% 10,686 1.30% 220 0.48% 81 16,987
Antrim 37.32% 5,960 61.03% 9,748 1.18% 189 0.47% 75 15,972
Arenac 31.38% 2,774 67.07% 5,928 1.10% 97 0.45% 40 8,839
Baraga 36.52% 1,478 62.07% 2,512 0.77% 31 0.64% 26 4,047
Barry 32.80% 11,797 65.27% 23,471 1.33% 479 0.60% 214 35,961
Bay 43.34% 26,151 54.90% 33,125 1.14% 688 0.61% 369 60,333
Benzie 44.69% 5,480 53.83% 6,601 1.04% 128 0.43% 53 12,262
Berrien 45.34% 37,438 52.71% 43,519 1.29% 1,062 0.66% 546 82,565
Branch 29.94% 6,159 68.36% 14,064 1.05% 216 0.65% 134 20,573
Calhoun 43.57% 28,877 54.65% 36,221 1.34% 890 0.44% 293 66,281
Cass 34.79% 9,130 63.63% 16,699 1.09% 286 0.48% 127 26,242
Charlevoix 40.75% 6,939 57.79% 9,841 0.94% 160 0.53% 90 17,030
Cheboygan 34.22% 5,437 64.10% 10,186 1.23% 196 0.45% 71 15,890
Chippewa 37.62% 6,648 60.44% 10,681 1.32% 233 0.62% 109 17,671
Clare 31.91% 5,199 66.65% 10,861 0.99% 162 0.45% 73 16,295
Clinton 45.84% 21,968 52.37% 25,098 1.38% 659 0.42% 202 47,927
Crawford 33.99% 2,672 64.71% 5,087 0.88% 69 0.42% 33 7,861
Delta 35.93% 7,606 62.39% 13,207 1.18% 249 0.50% 105 21,167
Dickinson 32.46% 4,744 65.80% 9,617 1.28% 187 0.46% 67 14,615
Eaton 48.66% 31,299 49.43% 31,798 1.39% 895 0.52% 335 64,327
Emmet 43.50% 9,662 54.64% 12,135 1.28% 284 0.58% 128 22,209
Genesee 53.84% 119,390 44.51% 98,714 1.01% 2,234 0.64% 1,426 221,764
Gladwin 30.95% 4,524 67.69% 9,893 0.97% 142 0.38% 56 14,615
Gogebic 43.14% 3,570 55.58% 4,600 0.81% 67 0.47% 39 8,276
Grand Traverse 47.53% 28,683 50.54% 30,502 1.32% 796 0.62% 372 60,353
Gratiot 34.95% 6,693 63.20% 12,102 1.25% 240 0.59% 113 19,148
Hillsdale 25.25% 5,883 73.11% 17,037 1.12% 261 0.52% 121 23,302
Houghton 41.82% 7,750 56.00% 10,378 1.54% 285 0.64% 120 18,533
Huron 29.77% 5,490 69.03% 12,731 0.79% 145 0.41% 76 18,442
Ingham 65.18% 94,212 32.96% 47,639 1.30% 1,873 0.58% 826 144,550
Ionia 33.84% 10,901 64.13% 20,657 1.52% 490 0.50% 161 32,209
Iosco 34.92% 5,373 63.42% 9,759 0.99% 152 0.67% 103 15,387
Iron 36.69% 2,493 62.05% 4,216 0.79% 54 0.47% 32 6,795
Isabella 47.74% 14,072 50.26% 14,815 1.24% 365 0.76% 224 29,476
Jackson 39.49% 31,995 58.47% 47,372 1.37% 1,113 0.66% 534 81,014
Kalamazoo 58.22% 83,686 39.53% 56,823 1.44% 2,064 0.81% 1,173 143,746
Kalkaska 28.24% 3,002 69.95% 7,436 1.34% 142 0.48% 51 10,631
Kent 51.91% 187,915 45.78% 165,741 1.52% 5,495 0.79% 2,880 362,031
Keweenaw 43.16% 672 55.36% 862 1.09% 17 0.39% 6 1,557
Lake 36.13% 2,288 62.32% 3,946 1.03% 65 0.52% 33 6,332
Lapeer 31.04% 16,367 67.29% 35,482 1.09% 573 0.59% 310 52,732
Leelanau 52.04% 8,795 46.84% 7,916 0.79% 134 0.33% 55 16,900
Lenawee 39.13% 20,918 59.01% 31,541 1.29% 690 0.57% 303 53,452
Livingston 37.91% 48,220 60.52% 76,982 1.19% 1,511 0.38% 484 127,197
Luce 28.00% 842 70.14% 2,109 0.90% 27 0.97% 29 3,007
Mackinac 37.47% 2,632 61.27% 4,304 0.80% 56 0.47% 33 7,025
Macomb 45.31% 223,952 53.39% 263,863 0.90% 4,462 0.40% 1,979 494,256
Manistee 41.60% 6,107 56.69% 8,321 1.05% 154 0.66% 97 14,679
Marquette 54.50% 20,465 43.37% 16,286 1.36% 511 0.77% 288 37,550
Mason 39.36% 6,802 59.06% 10,207 0.83% 143 0.76% 131 17,283
Mecosta 34.98% 7,375 62.93% 13,267 1.44% 303 0.65% 136 21,081
Menominee 34.20% 4,316 64.31% 8,117 0.99% 125 0.50% 63 12,621
Midland 41.67% 20,493 56.28% 27,675 1.43% 701 0.62% 306 49,175
Missaukee 22.47% 1,967 75.93% 6,648 1.27% 111 0.33% 29 8,755
Monroe 37.78% 32,980 60.39% 52,722 1.24% 1,086 0.59% 511 87,299
Montcalm 30.19% 9,703 67.88% 21,815 1.33% 428 0.60% 192 32,138
Montmorency 27.77% 1,628 71.14% 4,171 0.65% 38 0.44% 26 5,863
Muskegon 49.37% 45,643 48.82% 45,133 1.32% 1,219 0.48% 449 92,444
Newaygo 28.95% 7,873 69.33% 18,857 1.22% 331 0.50% 136 27,197
Oakland 56.24% 434,148 42.22% 325,971 0.94% 7,282 0.59% 4,590 771,991
Oceana 35.11% 4,944 63.15% 8,892 1.18% 166 0.55% 78 14,080
Ogemaw 29.15% 3,475 69.23% 8,253 1.12% 134 0.49% 59 11,921
Ontonagon 36.51% 1,391 61.89% 2,358 0.79% 30 0.81% 31 3,810
Osceola 26.05% 3,214 72.35% 8,928 1.09% 135 0.51% 63 12,340
Oscoda 27.50% 1,342 71.02% 3,466 0.80% 39 0.68% 33 4,880
Otsego 32.10% 4,743 66.19% 9,779 1.20% 177 0.51% 76 14,775
Ottawa 38.35% 64,705 59.81% 100,913 1.37% 2,315 0.46% 780 168,713
Presque Isle 34.84% 2,911 63.94% 5,342 0.84% 70 0.38% 32 8,355
Roscommon 34.36% 5,166 64.32% 9,670 0.80% 121 0.51% 77 15,034
Saginaw 49.37% 51,088 49.08% 50,785 0.97% 1,007 0.58% 603 103,483
Sanilac 26.58% 5,966 72.15% 16,194 0.95% 213 0.33% 73 22,446
Schoolcraft 33.49% 1,589 65.12% 3,090 0.84% 40 0.55% 26 4,745
Shiawassee 39.05% 15,347 58.90% 23,149 1.33% 524 0.71% 281 39,301
St. Clair 34.02% 31,363 64.19% 59,185 1.20% 1,109 0.59% 545 92,202
St. Joseph 33.10% 9,262 64.78% 18,127 1.49% 416 0.63% 176 27,981
Tuscola 29.55% 8,712 68.85% 20,297 1.11% 327 0.49% 143 29,479
Van Buren 42.92% 16,803 55.16% 21,591 1.29% 504 0.63% 248 39,146
Washtenaw 72.44% 157,136 25.93% 56,241 0.90% 1,956 0.74% 1,598 216,931
Wayne 68.32% 597,170 30.27% 264,553 0.75% 6,567 0.65% 5,728 874,018
Wexford 31.92% 5,838 66.16% 12,102 1.42% 259 0.51% 93 18,292

By congressional district

Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 57.9% 40.6% Jack Bergman
2nd 55% 43.2% Bill Huizenga
3rd 50.7% 47.4% Justin Amash
Peter Meijer
4th 61.1% 37.2% John Moolenaar
5th 47.1% 51.4% Dan Kildee
6th 51.3% 46.8% Fred Upton
7th 56.7% 41.6% Tim Walberg
8th 49.6% 48.8% Elissa Slotkin
9th 42.7% 55.9% Andy Levin
10th 64.2% 34.4% Paul Mitchell
Lisa McClain
11th 47.1% 51.6% Haley Stevens
12th 34.4% 64.2% Debbie Dingell
13th 20% 78.8% Rashida Tlaib
14th 19.6% 79.5% Brenda Lawrence

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[29] African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.[30] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95-3 to Biden 94-5 a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.[31]

In Oakland County Joe Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy.[32]

The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[33] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.[34]

Analysis

Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasts a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's collapse in the northern industrial states.[35][36]

Biden would carry the state by about 2.8% points; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.2% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[37]

While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a fairly sizable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[37] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[38]

Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.[39] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,[40] and flipped back Saginaw County.[41]

Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[42]

Aftermath

On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[43] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why", "when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[44]

In Antrim County, Michigan, human error led to a miscount of an unofficial tally of votes for the presidential candidates. The error was caused by a worker using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, therefore mismatched results were produced. The errors were spotted and rectified, thus the unofficial tally was changed from a Biden victory in the county to a Trump victory.[45]

Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[46]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ a b c d e f Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. ^ a b c d The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  6. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  7. ^ The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
  8. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. ^ Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
  10. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  12. ^ Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  15. ^ CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
  2. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
  3. ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
  4. ^ Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ a b c d e f g Standard VI response
  10. ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  11. ^ a b c d If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. ^ a b c d "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  13. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  16. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
  18. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  19. ^ "Someone else" with no voters
  20. ^ a b Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  21. ^ a b Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  22. ^ "Third party" with 5%
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Includes "Refused"
  24. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  25. ^ "Other/third party" with 2%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  27. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  28. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  29. ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  30. ^ Includes Undecided
  31. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  32. ^ a b c d e f Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^ a b c "Third party candidate" with 5%
  34. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  35. ^ "Third party candidate" with 4%
  36. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  38. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" with 0%
  40. ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  41. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  42. ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
  43. ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 1.2%
  45. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  46. ^ If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  47. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  48. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  49. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  50. ^ "Other/not sure" with 7%
  51. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  52. ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
  53. ^ Would not vote with 0%
  54. ^ "Another party candidate" with 1%
  55. ^ "Another third party/write-in" 1%
  56. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  57. ^ "Third party" with 6%
  58. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  59. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
  60. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
  61. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  62. ^ "Would vote third party" with 5%
  63. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  64. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
  65. ^ "other" with 2%
  66. ^ "Refused/no answer" with 4%
  67. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  68. ^ "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  69. ^ "A different candidate" with 6%
  70. ^ "Third party" with 4%
  71. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  72. ^ "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  73. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  74. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  75. ^ a b A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  76. ^ Would not vote with 5%
  77. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  78. ^ a b Would not vote with 7%
  79. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  80. ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
  81. ^ a b Would not vote with 6%
  82. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  83. ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  84. ^ Would not vote with 4%
  85. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
  86. ^ A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  87. ^ a b Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  88. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
  89. ^ a b c d Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
  90. ^ a b Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
  91. ^ 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
  92. ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
  93. ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
  94. ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
  95. ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
  96. ^ "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%

References

  1. ^ "Record 5.5M voted in Michigan; highest percentage in decades". Associated Press. November 5, 2020.
  2. ^ "Michigan Presidential Election Results 2020". NBC News. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  3. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  5. ^ Shepard, Steven. "Michigan certifies Trump as winner". POLITICO. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
  6. ^ Coleman, Justine (September 9, 2020). "Biden unveils plan to penalize companies that offshore jobs ahead of Michigan visit". TheHill. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. ^ "Michigan Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ "Michigan Will Keep Mark Sanford's Name on the Republican Presidential Primary Unless he Sends in a Withdrawal Letter | Ballot Access News". November 21, 2019.
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  10. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
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  12. ^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
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  15. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  19. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  20. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
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  30. ^ Warikoo, Niraj (November 6, 2020). "Black voters in Detroit key for Joe Biden and Gary Peters' victories, advocates say". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  31. ^ Garrison, Joey (November 13, 2020). "Donald Trump keeps baselessly claiming voter fraud in cities. But suburbs actually lost him the election". USA Today. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  32. ^ Bartkowiak, Dave Jr. (November 10, 2020). "How Detroit's Oakland County suburbs voted in 2020 presidential election". Click on Detroit. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  33. ^ Ruble, Kayla (November 23, 2020). "Detroit had more vote errors in 2016 when Trump won Michigan by a narrow margin. He didn't object then". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  34. ^ "Michigan board certifies Nov. 3 election, cementing Biden victory".
  35. ^ Alter, Charlotte (September 15, 2020). "Joe Biden is Running an Invisible Digital Campaign in All-Important Michigan. That's Making Some Democrats Nervous". Time. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  36. ^ Emmrich, Stuart (October 28, 2020). "Letter From Michigan: Trying to Win a Key Battleground State for Joe Biden, One Door at a Time". Vogue. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  37. ^ a b Spangler, Todd (November 6, 2020). "Here's how Biden beat Trump in Michigan — and it wasn't corruption". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  38. ^ Bartkowiak, Dave (November 11, 2020). "Biden wins big in Wayne, Oakland counties while Trump holds onto Macomb County". ClickOnDetroit. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  39. ^ Bartkowiak, Dave (November 11, 2020). "Biden wins big in Wayne, Oakland counties while Trump holds onto Macomb County". ClickOnDetroit. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  40. ^ Simpson-Mersha, Isis (November 8, 2020). "See how Genesee County in 2020 voted compared to past elections". MLive. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  41. ^ Johnson, Bob (November 4, 2020). "Biden narrowly wins Saginaw County". MLive. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
  42. ^ "US elections 2020: Trump's support dips among Caucasian evangelical Christians, exit polls show". Middle East Eye. November 6, 2020. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
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Further reading

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