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2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

The Maryland gubernatorial election of 2018 was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were eligible to run for a second term in office and pursued a successful re-election against former NAACP CEO Ben Jealous and his running mate Susan Turnbull. Hogan and Rutherford became the first Republican gubernatorial ticket in Maryland to win reelection since 1954.[1]

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018

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  Denton Visitor Center Groundbreaking (27264387634) (cropped).jpg Ben Jealous crop.jpg
Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull
Popular vote 1,275,644 1,002,639
Percentage 55.4% 43.5%

Maryland Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County results
Hogan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Jealous:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Larry Hogan
Republican

Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

BackgroundEdit

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony G. Brown by a margin of 52–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[2] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.[3] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[4]

Republican primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NominatedEdit

DeclinedEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Larry Hogan
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

ResultsEdit

Republican primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 210,935 100.00%
Total votes 210,935 100.00%

Democratic primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NominatedEdit

Eliminated in primaryEdit

DeceasedEdit

WithdrewEdit

  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings[59]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember[60]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman[61]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so notices were posted at polling places informing voters that votes for Kamenetz and Ervin would be counted as votes for Ervin and Johnson. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race.[62])

DeclinedEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Rushern Baker
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate[81]
  • David Trone, businessman[16]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Ervin (withdrew)
U.S. Representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council[103]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council[103]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. Representatives
Attorney General
State Senators
  • Susan Lee, state senator
  • Will Smith, state senator
State Delegates
  • Al Carr, state delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, state delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, state delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, state delegate
  • Karen Young, state delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, state delegate
  • Marice Morales, state delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, state delegate
  • David Moon, state delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, state delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, state delegate
Local officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase[16]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
Individuals
Alec Ross
Individuals
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, state delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, state delegate
Local officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council
Krish Vignarajah
Individuals
Organizations

PollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rushern
Baker
Valerie
Ervin
Ben
Jealous
Kevin
Kamenetz
Richard
Madaleno
Jim
Shea
Krish
Vignarajah
Other Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 505 ± 4.5% 25% 7% 23% 9% 6% 5% 2%[a] 22%
OpinionWorks May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 16% 5% 16% 4% 4% 4% 7%[b] 44%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 532 ± 6.0% 16% 8% 21% 6% 4% 4% 2%[c] 39%
Mason-Dixon February 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 26% 14% 15% 4% 3% 2% 3%[d] 32%
Goucher College February 12–18, 2018 409 ± 4.8% 19% 10% 12% 2% 2% 2% 6%[109] 47%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 501 ± 4.5% 24% 14% 14% 5% 1% 2% 8%[e] 33%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 28% 10% 11% 3% <1% 1% 1%[f] 46%
Goucher College September 14–18, 2017 324 ± 5.4% 13% 6% 8% 2% 2% 1% 22%[g] 44%
Notes
  1. ^ Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe and James Jones with <1%
  2. ^ Alec Ross with 1%, someone else with 6%
  3. ^ Alec Ross with 2%
  4. ^ Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%
  5. ^ Maya Rockeymoore 6%, Alec Ross with 1%, Ralph Jaffe with 0%
  6. ^ Alec Ross with 1%</
  7. ^ Doug Gansler 11%, Maya Rockeymoore 8%, Alec Ross with 1%. Other 2%

ResultsEdit

 
A county map of the democratic primary results with Ben Jealous in blue and Rushern Baker in green.
Democratic primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Jealous 231,895 39.6%
Democratic Rushern Baker 171,696 29.3%
Democratic Jim Shea 48,647 8.3%
Democratic Krish O'Mara Vignarajah 48,041 8.2%
Democratic Rich Madaleno 34,184 5.8%
Democratic Kevin Kamentez/Valerie Ervin 18,851 3.2%
Democratic Alec Ross 13,780 2.4%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 9,405 1.6%
Democratic James Jones 9,188 1.6%
Total votes 585,687 100.0%

Green nominationEdit

CandidatesEdit

DeclaredEdit

ResultsEdit

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018 deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[112]

Green State Central Committee Designation[112]
April 20 - April 25
Candidate Delegates in favor Delegates against Delegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers 15 0 5

Libertarian conventionEdit

CandidatesEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010[113]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith
Candidate Votes in favor Votes against Not voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith 32 1 0

General electionEdit

ControversiesEdit

More than 74,000 potentially voters were affected during the primaries, when the Motor Vehicle Administration was not able to convey information to voters due to problems with ByteGrid. This is a company that provides key services for Maryland elections, and was bought days before the 2018 primary elections by AltPoint Capital Partners, whose manager is Vladimir Potanin. This failure made voters unable to be registered and vote and where forced to fill provisional ballots.[114] No changes were announced for the 2018 gubernatorial election.[115][116]

DebatesEdit

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.[117]

PredictionsEdit

Source Ranking As of
FiveThirtyEight[118] Solid R November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[119] Likely R November 5, 2018
Fox News[120][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[121] Likely R November 5, 2018
The Cook Political Report[122] Likely R October 26, 2018
Governing[123] Likely R November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[124] Likely R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[125] Likely R November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[126] Likely R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[127] Likely R November 1, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

PollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Ben
Jealous (D)
Other Undecided
University of Maryland October 4–7, 2018 648 LV ± 4.5% 58% 38% 0% 3%
814 RV ± 4.0% 56% 36% 0% 2%
Gonzales Research October 1–6, 2018 806 ± 3.5% 54% 36% 2%[a] 9%
Mason-Dixon September 24–26, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 52% 37% 2%[a] 9%
Goucher College September 11–16, 2018 472 ± 4.5% 54% 32% 2%[a] 9%
Gonzales Research August 1–8, 2018 831 ± 3.5% 52% 36% 1%[b] 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) July 10–14, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 34% 14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 51% 39% 10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 44% 31% 22%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 50% 33% 17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 823 ± 3.5% 49% 36% 15%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 49% 33% 18%
Notes
  1. ^ a b c Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  2. ^ Shawn Quinn (L) with 1%, Ian Schlakman (G) with 0%

ResultsEdit

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018[128]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Larry Hogan / Boyd Rutherford (incumbent) 1,275,644 55.35% +4.32%
Democratic Ben Jealous / Susan Turnbull 1,002,639 43.51% -3.74%
Libertarian Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith 13,241 0.57% -0.89%
Green Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers 11,175 0.48% N/A
n/a Write-ins 1,813 0.08% -0.18%
Total votes 2,304,512 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Ng, Greg; Amara, Kate (November 6, 2018). "Gov. Larry Hogan makes history with re-election in Maryland". WBAL-TV. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  2. ^ Wagner, John; Johnson, Jenna (November 5, 2014). "Republican Larry Hogan wins Md. governor's race in stunning upset". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 2018-08-03. Retrieved 2018-08-10.
  3. ^ DuBose, Brooks. "Larry Hogan is the second-most popular governor in the US, a poll shows". The Diamondback. Retrieved 31 October 2018.
  4. ^ Thompson, Steve; Clement, Scott (April 24, 2018). "Poll: Hogan's approval ratings sky-high; Democrats stronger among women, millennials". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 12, 2018.
  5. ^ "Maryland governor raises nearly $4M in past year". 18 January 2017.
  6. ^ Butler, Erika (July 21, 2017). "County exec Glassman says he plans to run for re-election". The Aegis. Retrieved July 31, 2017.
  7. ^ Yeager, Amanda (July 22, 2017). "Senator, county executive or governor? Grasso eyes three seats in 2018". The Capital. Retrieved July 24, 2017.
  8. ^ Yeager, Amanda (August 2, 2017). "Grasso to run for Anne Arundel county executive". The Capital. Retrieved August 3, 2017.
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  12. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Hogan For Governor Announces Fifteen New Democratic Endorsements". Larry Hogan for Governor. July 11, 2018.
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  109. ^ Alec Ross 3%, Ralph Jaffe 1%, Other 2%
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