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World population estimates from 1800 to 2100, based on "high", "medium" and "low" United Nations projections in 2015 and UN historical estimates for pre-1950 data.

Projections of population growth established in 2017 predict that the human population is likely to keep growing until 2100,[1] reaching an estimated 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100, while the 7 billion milestone was reached in 2011.[2] As the demographic transition follows its course worldwide, the population will age significantly, with most countries outside Africa trending towards a rectangular age pyramid.[3]

The world population is currently growing by approximately 83 million people each year.[1] Within many populations of the world, growth rates are slowing, resulting in the global population growth rate decreasing as below:

1995 1.55%
2005 1.25%
2015 1.18%
2017 1.10%

The median estimate for future growth sees the world population reaching 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100[1] assuming a continuing decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman in 2010–2015 to 2.2 in 2045–2050 and to 2.0 in 2095–2100, according to the medium-variant projection.[1] With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide, the main driver of future population growth is the evolution of the fertility rate.[4]:8

While most scenarios still predict continued growth into the 22nd century, there is a roughly 27% chance that the total population could stabilize or begin to fall before 2100.[4]:3 Longer-term speculative scenarios over the next two centuries can predict anything between runaway growth to radical decline (36.4 billion or 2.3 billion people in 2300), with the median projection showing a slight decrease followed by a stabilization around 9 billion people.[5]:13

By 2070, the bulk of the world's population growth is predicted to take place in Africa: of the additional 2.4 billion people projected between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion will be added in Africa, 0.9 billion in Asia and only 0.2 billion in the rest of the world. Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 16% in 2015 to 25% in 2050 and 39% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 60% in 2015 to 54% in 2050 and 44% in 2100.[4]:3 The strong growth of the African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the exceptional proportion of young people already living today. For example, the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by 2050.[4]:4 The population of the more developed regions is slated to remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion, as international migrations from high-growth regions compensate the fertility deficit of richer countries.[4]:11.In recent years rich or mainly European countries also trying to increase the fertility rate by giving some type of incentives to increase their country population.

Growth regionsEdit

 
Map of countries by fertility rate (2018), according to CIA World Factbook

From 2017 to 2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda, and Indonesia, listed according to the expected size of their contribution to that projected population growth.[6]

From 2010 to 2015, the average world fertility was 2.5 children per woman,[1] about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2045 to 2050 and to 2.0 in 2095-2100.[1]

Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950–1955 to 65 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 75 years in 2045–2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045–2050. The population of 31 countries or areas, including Ukraine, Romania, Japan and most of the successor states of the Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005.

Projected migration to developed countriesEdit

According to the United Nations, during 2005–2050 the net number of international migrants trying to reach more developed regions is projected to be 98 million, so the population in those regions will likely be influenced by international migration. Deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005–2050. In 2000–2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom.[7]

By 2050 (medium variant), India will have 1.73 billion people, China 1.46 billion, Nigeria 401 million, United States 398 million, Indonesia 327 million, Pakistan 303 million, Bangladesh 265.8 million, Brazil 232 million, Democratic Republic of Congo 195.3 million, Ethiopia 188.5 million, Mexico 164 million, Philippines 157.1 million, Egypt 142 million, Russia 133 million, Tanzania 129.4 million, Vietnam 112.8 million, Japan 107 million, Uganda 101 million, Turkey 96 million, Kenya 95.5 million, Iran 95 million, Sudan 81 million, Germany 78 million and the United Kingdom and France 75 million. [8][9]

World population in 2050Edit

 
Estimates of population levels in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations (2011 edition). The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.
 
UN estimates (as of 2017) for world population by continent in 2000 and in 2050 (pie chart size to scale).[1]
     Asia      Africa      Europe      Latin America      Northern America      Oceania

The median scenario of the UN 2017 world population prospects[1] predicts the following populations per continent in 2050 (compared to population in 2000), in billions:

2000 2050 growth p.a.
Asia 3.73 5.26 +41% +0.7%
Africa 0.82 2.53 +209% +2.3%
Europe 0.73 0.72 -2% -0.03%
South/Central America
+Caribbean
0.53 0.78 +48% +0.8%
North America 0.31 0.43 +39% +0.7%
Oceania 0.03 0.06 +84% +1.2%
World 6.14 9.77 +60% +0.9%

Walter Greiling projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion, in the 21st century, and then stop growing after a readjustment of the Third World and a sanitation of the tropics.[10]

Estimates published in the 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth will stop increasing around 2070;[11] In a 2004 long-term prospective report, the United Nations Population Division projected the world population to peak at 9.22 billion in 2075. After reaching this maximum, it would decline slightly and then resume a slow increase, reaching a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, about the same as the projected 2050 figure.[5]:1

This prediction was revised in the 2010s, to the effect that no maximum will likely be reached in the 21st century.[4] The main reason for the revision was that the ongoing rapid population growth in Africa had been underestimated. A 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division forecast that the world's population will reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[12] The UN as of 2017 predicts a decline of global population growth rate from +1.0% in 2020 to +0.5% in 2050 and to +0.1% in 2100.[1]

Jørgen Randers, one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in The Limits to Growth, offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicts a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.[13]

These projected growth patterns depend on assumptions about vital rates. Total fertility is assumed to continue to decline, at varying paces depending on circumstances in individual countries, to a below-replacement level of 1.85 children per woman by mid century. Countries already at this level or below, and other countries when they reach it, will eventually return to replacement over a period of a century and stay at replacement going forward. All countries are projected to have reached replacement fertility by 2175.

Some of the authors of the 2004 UN report say that life expectancy is assumed to rise slowly and continuously. The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. By 2100, the report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by 2300 from 87 to 106 years, depending on the country. Based on that assumption, they said that rising life expectancy will produce small but continuing population growth by the end of the projections, ranging from 0.03 to 0.07 percent annually. The hypothetical feasibility (and wide availability) of life extension by technological means would further exacerbate the overpopulation problem.[14][15][16]

Most populous nations by 2030Edit

The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. The 2015 study projects the world population in 2030 to be 8.5 billion people, with the following estimates for the top 10 countries:[4]:18

2030 rank
(projected)
2015 rank Rank change Country 2030 population
(projected)
2015 population Population
change
1 2 +1     India (demographics) 1,527,657,988 1,311,051,000 +16.5%
2 1 −1     China (demographics) 1,441,181,813 1,376,049,000 +2.9%
3 3     United States (demographics) 359,402,000 321,774,000 +10.6%
4 4     Indonesia (demographics) 295,482,000 257,564,000 +14.8%
5 7 +2     Nigeria (demographics) 264,067,527 182,202,000 +39.2%
6 5 +1     Pakistan (demographics) 244,248,000 208,925,000 +32.8%
7 6 −1     Brazil (demographics) 228,663,000 207,848,000 +10.1%
8 8     Bangladesh (demographics) 186,460,000 160,996,000 +15.9%
9 11 +2     Mexico (demographics) 148,133,000 127,017,000 +16.7%
10 9 −1     Russia (demographics) 138,652,000 143,457,000 −3.3%
 World (demographics) 8,500,766,000 7,349,472,000 +15.7%

  India 1,461,625,200 (2025 projections) * Population Pyramid

* UN on Pakistan Population

After 2050Edit

Projections for after 2050 have usually assumed that fertility rates will have declined by then and the population will be stable or will decrease. However, a study in 2014 found that fertility rates in Africa have leveled off at around 4.6 instead of continuing to decline, and that consequently world population may be as high as 12 billion by 2100. Reasons for the continuing high birth rate include better survival rates with respect to HIV, and contraception shortage.[17][18] Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself; in addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world.[19]

UN projections published in 2019 estimate the world population in 2100 to be 11.2 billion.[1]

Population projections of the 101 largest metropolitan areas in the 21st centuryEdit

Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. Currently, 757 million humans live in the 101 largest cities;[20] these cities are home to 11% of the world's population.[20] By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion;[20] the percentage of people living in the 101 largest cities is estimated to be 15% to 23%.[20]

The following 101 metropolitan areas with the largest population projections for the years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 are listed below.[20]

Rank City Projected
Population (millions)
2025
City Projected
Population (millions)
2050
City Projected
Population (millions)
2075
City Projected
Population (millions)
2100
1   Tokyo 36.40   Mumbai 42.40   Kinshasa 58.42   Lagos 88.30
2   Mumbai 26.39   Delhi 36.16   Mumbai 57.86   Kinshasa 83.53
3   Delhi 22.50   Dhaka 35.19   Lagos 57.20   Dar es Salaam 73.68
4   Dhaka 22.02   Kinshasa 35.00   Delhi 49.34   Mumbai 67.24
5   São Paulo 21.43   Kolkata 33.04   Kolkata 45.09   Delhi 57.33
6   Mexico City 21.01   Lagos 32.63   Karachi 43.37   Khartoum 56.59
7   New York City 20.63   Tokyo 32.62   Dhaka 42.45   Niamey 56.15
8   Kolkata 20.56   Karachi 31.70   Dar es Salaam 37.49   Dhaka 54.25
9   Shanghai 19.41   New York City 24.77   Cairo 33.00   Kolkata 52.40
10   Karachi 19.10   Mexico City 24.33   Manila 32.75   Kabul 50.30
11   Kinshasa 16.76   Cairo 24.03   Kabul 32.67   Karachi 49.06
12   Lagos 15.80   Manila 23.55   Khartoum 30.68   Nairobi 46.66
13   Cairo 15.56   São Paulo 22.82   Tokyo 28.92   Lilongwe 41.38
14   Manila 14.81   Shanghai 21.32   Nairobi 28.42   Blantyre 40.91
15   Beijing 14.55   Lahore 17.45   New York City 27.92   Cairo 40.54
16   Buenos Aires 13.77   Kabul 17.09   Baghdad 24.39   Kampala 40.14
17   Los Angeles 13.67   Los Angeles 16.42   Mexico City 24.18   Manila 39.96
18   Rio de Janeiro 13.41   Chennai 16.28   Lahore 23.88   Lusaka 37.74
19   Jakarta 12.36   Khartoum 16.00   Addis Ababa 23.81   Mogadishu 36.37
20   Istanbul 12.10   Dar es Salaam 15.97   Chennai 22.21   Addis Ababa 35.82
21   Guangzhou 11.84   Beijing 15.97   Bangalore 21.31   Baghdad 34.10
22   Osaka-Kobe 11.37   Jakarta 15.92   São Paulo 21.28   New York City 30.19
23   Moscow 10.53   Bangalore 15.62   Shanghai 21.05   N'Djamena 28.81
24   Lahore 11.37   Buenos Aires 15.55   Niamey 20.37   Kano 28.28
25   Shenzhen 10.20   Baghdad 15.09   Kampala 20.23   Sana'a 27.21
26   Chennai 10.13   Hyderabad 14.61   Hyderabad 19.94   Lahore 27.05
27   Paris 10.04   Luanda 14.30   Luanda 19.65   Chennai 25.81
28   Chicago 9.93   Rio de Janeiro 14.29   Los Angeles 18.51   Tokyo 25.63
29   Tehran 9.81   Nairobi 14.25   Kano 17.69   Bangalore 24.77
30   Seoul 9.74   Istanbul 14.18   Jakarta 17.55   Ibadan 23.68
31   Bangalore 9.72   Addis Ababa 13.21   Ahmedabad 16.93   Luanda 23.55
32   Lima 9.60   Guangzhou 13.00   Sana'a 16.69   Hyderabad 23.17
33   Bogotá 9.60   Ahmedabad 12.43   Rio de Janeiro 16.56   Bamako 22.95
34   Wuhan 9.34   Chittagong 12.21   Buenos Aires 16.40   Mexico City 22.22
35   Tianjin 9.24   Chicago 11.93   Chittagong 16.04   Dakar 21.18
36   Hyderabad 9.09   Ho Chi Minh City 11.86   Mogadishu 15.94   Maputo 21.07
37   London 8.62   Lima 11.57   Beijing 15.78   Shanghai 20.79
38   Bangkok 8.33   Bogotá 11.56   Abidjan 15.52   Ouagadougou 20.63
39   Hong Kong 8.31   Shenzhen 11.20   Lilongwe 15.32   Antananarivo 20.53
40   Chongqing 8.28   Paris 11.12   Blantyre 15.06   Los Angeles 20.01
41   Luanda 8.24   Bangkok 11.08   Pune 14.91   Rio de Janeiro 19.84
42   Ho Chi Minh City 8.15   Tehran 11.00   Ibadan 14.81   Ahmedabad 19.71
43   Baghdad 8.06   Pune 10.92   Istanbul 14.68   Abidjan 19.70
44   Khartoum 7.94   Abidjan 10.71   Dakar 14.56   São Paulo 19.12
45   Ahmedabad 7.74   Kano 10.44   Lusaka 14.52   Chittagong 18.82
46   Chittagong 7.64   Wuhan 10.26   N'djamena 14.48   Abuja 18.58
47   Kabul 7.18   Moscow 10.24   Ho Chi Minh City 14.22   Kigali 18.30
48   Santiago 7.03   Osaka-Kobe 10.19   Bamako 13.54   Jakarta 18.22
49   Pune 6.80   Tianjin 10.15   Chicago 13.44   Pune 17.32
50   Hanoi 6.75   Sana'a 10.05   Guangzhou 12.84   Conakry 17.32
51   Belo Horizonte 6.75   Hanoi 9.83   Bangkok 12.55   Buenos Aires 16.99
52   Santiago 6.31   London 9.75   Surat 12.51   Beijing 15.58
53   Riyadh 6.28   Seoul 9.47   Lima 12.44   Ho Chi Minh City 15.53
54   Miami 6.27   Hong Kong 9.47   Antananarivo 12.40   Istanbul 14.79
55   Dongguan 6.16   Kampala 9.43   Alexandria 11.99   Alexandria 14.72
56   Shenyang 6.16   Surat 9.17   Bogota 11.89   Lubumbashi 14.66
57   Addis Ababa 6.16   Chongqing 9.09   Hanoi 11.79   Chicago 14.54
58   Philadelphia 6.13   Ibadan 8.75   Abuja 11.75   Surat 14.53
59   Abidjan 6.03   Alexandria 8.73   Ouagadougou 11.70   Mbuji-Mayi 14.20
60   Toronto 5.95   Dakar 8.52   Paris 11.64   Mombasa 14.01
61   Madrid 5.94   Yangon 8.44   Shenzhen 11.06   Phnom Penh 13.88
62   Nairobi 5.87   Riyadh 8.09   Maputo 10.92   Kaduna 13.20
63   Yangon 5.87   Bamako 7.63   Conakry 10.63   Hanoi 12.87
64   Surat 5.70   Miami 7.53   Hong Kong 10.41   Lima 12.81
65   Dar es Salaam 5.69   Santiago 7.49   Tehran 10.36   Guangzhou 12.68
66   Alexandria 5.65   Kanpur 7.39   Yangon 10.26   Bangkok 12.14
67   DallasFort Worth 5.42   Philadelphia 7.36   Wuhan 10.13   Paris 11.86
68   Tlaquepaque 5.37   Antananarivo 7.26   Kanpur 10.09   Kanpur 11.73
69   Tonalá 5.37   Belo Horizonte 7.19   London 10.09   Al Hudaydah 11.51
70   Zapopan 5.37   Faisalabad 7.11   Tianjin 10.03   Hong Kong 11.46
71   Chengdu 5.32   Toronto 7.04   Kigali 9.79   Yangon 11.42
72   Xi'an 5.23   Abuja 6.94   Faisalabad 9.73   Monrovia 11.21
73   Barcelona 5.18   Jaipur 6.91   Lubumbashi 9.57   Bogotá 11.20
74   Atlanta 5.15   Ouagadougou 6.90   Moscow 9.51   Benin City 11.14
75   Guiyang 5.11   Niamey 6.79   Jaipur 9.43   Giza 11.00
76   Singapore 5.10   Santiago 6.77   Mbuji-Mayi 9.27   Faisalabad 11.00
77   Kano 5.06   Dongguan 6.76   Osaka-Kobe 9.03   Accra 10.99
78   Houston 5.05   Shenyang 6.76   Riyadh 9.00   Jaipur 10.95
79   Boston 5.03   Mogadishu 6.57   Chongqing 8.98   Shenzhen 10.92
80   Guadalajara 4.97   Giza 6.52   Giza 8.96   Taiz 10.82
81   Guadalupe 4.95   Madrid 6.52   Phnom Penh 8.85   Lomé 10.21
82   Washington, D.C. 4.89   Dallas-Fort Worth 6.51   Lucknow 8.65   Lucknow 10.05
83   Sydney 4.83   Lucknow 6.34   Mombasa 8.53   Wuhan 10.00
84   Nanjing 4.77   Tlaquepaque 6.22   Miami 8.49   Tianjin 9.90
85   Harbin 4.70   Tonalá 6.22   Philadelphia 8.30   Douala 9.68
86   Porto Alegre 4.63   Zapopan 6.22   Kaduna 8.26   London 9.56
87   Coimbatore 4.61   Atlanta 6.19   Accra 7.98   Riyadh 9.40
88   Kanpur 4.60   Lubumbashi 6.15   Nagpur 7.86   Port Harcourt 9.40
89   Ankara 4.59   Conakry 6.14   Toronto 7.81   Miami 9.18
90   Brasilia 4.58   Houston 6.06   Seoul 7.67   Nagpur 9.13
91   Algiers 4.50   Boston 6.04   Aleppo 7.37   Philadelphia 8.98
92   St. Petersburg 4.48   Mbuji-Mayi 5.95   DallasFort Worth 7.34   Mosul 8.87
93   Monterrey 4.41   Accra 5.94   Lomé 7.25   Chongqing 8.87
94   Sana'a 4.38   Aleppo 5.90   Monrovia 7.08   Moscow 8.42
95   Recife 4.35   Washington, D.C. 5.87   Douala 7.07   Aleppo 8.37
96   Changchun 4.34   Chengdu 5.84   Al-Hudaydah 7.06   Toronto 8.33
97   Jaipur 4.30   Sydney 5.82   Patna 7.03   Patna 8.17
98   Faisalabad 4.28   Guadalajara 5.76   Santiago 6.98   Tehran 8.17
99   Melbourne 4.24   Nagpur 5.76   Atlanta 6.97   Osaka-Kobe 8.00
100   Ibadan 4.23   Xi'an 5.75   Rawalpindi 6.97   Dallas-Fort Worth 7.93
101   Dakar 4.23   Guadalupe 5.73   Benin City 6.96   Rawalpindi 7.88

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

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  2. ^ "World Population Forecast". Worldometers. Retrieved 26 June 2016.
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  13. ^ Randers, Jørgen (2012). 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing. p. 62.
  14. ^ Newmark, PA; Sánchez Alvarado, A (2002). "Not your father's planarian: a classic model enters the era of functional genomics". Nat Rev Genet. 3: 210–219. doi:10.1038/nrg759. PMID 11972158.
  15. ^ Bavestrello, Giorgio; Sommer, Christian; Sarà, Michele (1992). "Bi-directional conversion in Turritopsis nutricula (Hydrozoa)". Scientia Marina. 56 (2–3): 137–140.
  16. ^ Martínez, DE (1998). "Mortality patterns suggest lack of senescence in hydra". Exp Gerontol. 33 (3): 217–225. doi:10.1016/S0531-5565(97)00113-7. PMID 9615920. In an essay within the 2004 U.N. report, Tim Dyson said: "A rapid increase in life expectancy, which would raise the population pyramids, seems within reach, since it responds to an old and powerful demand for longevity."
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  19. ^ Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?, BBC News, 13 October 2012
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