2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats were up for election in Wales as the general election occurred after the recently completed boundary review took effect. The Labour Party won a landslide victory of Welsh MPs, gaining six seats for a total of 27. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats gained one seat each, taking them to four seats and one seat respectively. The Conservatives lost all thirteen seats they had held previously, leaving the party without Westminster representation from Wales for the first time since 2001.

2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

← 2019 4 July 2024 Next →

All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
Turnout56.0% Decrease10.6%
  First party Second party Third party
  Keir Starmer Rhun ap Iorwerth Ed Davey
Leader Keir Starmer Rhun ap Iorwerth Ed Davey
Party Labour Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 4 April 2020 16 June 2023 27 August 2020
Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 4 seats, 9.9% 0 seats, 6.0%
Seats before 21 3 0
Seats won 27 4 1
Seat change Increase6 Increase1 Increase1
Popular vote 487,636 194,812 85,911
Percentage 37.0% 14.8% 6.5%
Swing Decrease3.9% Increase4.9% Increase0.5%

Results by constituency

Election

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Date of the election

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On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]

Number of Welsh MPs

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Welsh constituencies to be used in the election, labelled. A decrease to 32 constituencies.

As required by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, the number of seats in Wales must be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coinciding with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales is responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it must abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November.[5] and came into force on 29 November.[6]

Constituencies

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Welsh MPs not standing for re-election

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Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[7]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[8]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023[9]
Christina Rees Neath 2015 Labour 1 February 2024[10]
Kevin Brennan Cardiff West 2001 Labour 27 May 2024[11]
Geraint Davies Swansea West 1997[a] Labour[b] 28 May 2024[12]
Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 Plaid Cymru[c] 28 May 2024[13]
Jamie Wallis Bridgend 2019 Conservative 22 October 2023[14]
Beth Winter Cynon Valley[d] 2019 Labour 7 June 2023[15]

Candidates

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Parties Number of candidates[16]
Conservative Party 32
Green Party of England and Wales 32
Labour Party 32
Liberal Democrats 32
Plaid Cymru 32
Reform UK 31
Independents 17 (15 constituencies)
Heritage Party 6
Workers Party of Britain 4
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 3
Co-operative Party 3[17]
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 2
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 2
Women's Equality Party 2
Climate Party 1
Communist Party of Britain 1
English Democrats 1
Libertarian Party (UK) 1
Propel 1
Socialist Labour Party (UK) 1
True and Fair Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Total 235

Results

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A summarised results of the parties that won seats at the election is shown below.[18]

Party Leader MPs Votes
Of total Of total
Labour Party Keir Starmer 27 84.4%
27 / 32
487,636 37%
Conservative Party Rishi Sunak 0 0.0%
0 / 32
240,003 18.2%
Reform UK Nigel Farage 0 0.0%
0 / 32
223,018 16.9%
Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth 4 12.5%
4 / 32
194,811 14.8%
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 1 3.1%
1 / 32
85,911 6.5%
Green Party of England and Wales Carla Denyer
Adrian Ramsay
0 0.0%
0 / 32
61,662 4.7%

By constituency

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Candidates in bold won their respective constituency election.

Opinion polling

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The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

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Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Reform Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[19] 37.0% 18.2% 14.8% 6.5% 16.9% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8
27 Jun1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 40% 16% 14% 7% 16% 5% 2% 24
24–28 Jun 2024 More in Common N/A 848 42% 22% 9% 4% 14% 5% 4% 20
19–20 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 930 46% 15% 10% 7% 17% 4% 1% 29
14–18 Jun 2024 Savanta N/A 1,026 49% 19% 12% 5% 12% 3% - 30
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 45% 18% 11% 5% 18% 4% 0% 27
30 May3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 45% 18% 12% 5% 13% 4% 1% 27
22–27 May 2024 More in Common N/A 805 45% 21% 13% 4% 12% 3% 1% 24
22 May 2024 Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 43% 19% 14% 3% 15% 6% 1% 24
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 40% 18% 14% 6% 18% 4% 0% 22
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 49% 16% 10% 5% 15% 5% 1% 33
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[20]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 45% 22% 10% 5% 13% 5% 1% 23
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 48% 20% 10% 4% 12% 4% 1% 28
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 47% 22% 11% 6% 10% 2% 0% 25
4–7 Dec 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,004 42% 20% 15% 7% 12% 3% 1% 22
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 44% 24% 13% 4% 9% 5% 1% 20
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 46% 26% 10% 3% 10% 4% 0% 20
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 44% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 50% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 41% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 46% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 43% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[21]
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 49% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[22]
25 Feb1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep1 Oct 2021 YouGov ? ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[23]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[24]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

Seat projections

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Dates
conducted
Pollster Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Notes
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,237 35 0 4 1 Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election 22 14 4 0

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
  2. ^ Sat as an independent from June 2023.
  3. ^ Sat as an independent from July 2020.
  4. ^ Constituency was abolished and Winter lost the contest to be selected for another seat
  5. ^ Incumbent MP for Islwyn
  6. ^ Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
  7. ^ An MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
  8. ^ Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
  9. ^ Was not reselected as a candidate
  10. ^ Baynes was the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and stood in North Shropshire in England.
  11. ^ Incumbent MP for Swansea East

References

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  1. ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  2. ^ Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  3. ^ Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  4. ^ "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  5. ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
  6. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
  7. ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
  8. ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  9. ^ "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
  10. ^ "Christina Rees readmitted to Labour after apology over bullying claims". The Guardian. 1 February 2024. Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...
  11. ^ @KevinBrennanMP (27 May 2024). "I'm announcing my decision to stand down as Cardiff West MP after 23 years - thank you to local Labour members and constituents for your friendship and support" (Tweet). Retrieved 28 May 2024 – via Twitter.
  12. ^ "Geraint Davies says he is 'unable' to stand for Labour because of suspension". Express & Star. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  13. ^ "MP cautioned for assaulting his wife confirms he wont be standing for re-election/". Nation.Cymru. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Conservative MP seeking new seat for next election". BBC News. 22 October 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  15. ^ "Welsh Labour: Frontbench MP beats left-winger in seat battle". BBC News. 7 June 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  16. ^ "Democracy Club Candidates". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
  17. ^ In electoral pact with the Labour Party, all candidates are also standing for the Labour Party
  18. ^ "UK General Election 2024: The results in Wales". research.senedd.wales. 5 July 2024.
  19. ^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  20. ^ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  21. ^ "Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth". 16 June 2023. Archived from the original on 20 November 2023. Retrieved 20 November 2023 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  22. ^ "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  23. ^ "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  24. ^ "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.