Wikipedia

2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

The 2024 general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats will be up for election in Wales as the general election will occur after the recently completed boundary review took effect.

2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
← 2019 4 July 2024 Next →
All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party Third party
  Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth
Leader Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 4 April 2020 24 October 2022 16 June 2023
Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 14 seats, 36.1% 4 seats, 9.9%
Seats before 21 13 3

Election

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Date of the election

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On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]

Number of Welsh MPs

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Welsh constituencies to be used in the election, labelled. A decrease to 32 constituencies.

As required by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, the number of seats in Wales must be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coinciding with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales is responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it must abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November.[5] and came into force on 29 November.[6]

Constituencies

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Welsh MPs not seeking re-election

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Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[7]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[8]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023[9]
Christina Rees Neath 2015 Labour 1 February 2024[10]
Kevin Brennan Cardiff West 2001 Labour 27 May 2024[11]
Geraint Davies Swansea West 1997[a] Labour[b] 28 May 2024[12]
Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 Plaid Cymru[c] 28 May 2024[13]

Candidates

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Main article: Results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election by constituency § Wales
Parties Number of candidates[14]
Conservative Party 32
Green Party of England and Wales 32
Labour Party 32
Liberal Democrats 32
Plaid Cymru 32
Reform UK 31
Independents 17 (15 constituencies)
Heritage Party 6
Workers Party of Britain 4
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 3
Co-operative Party 3[15]
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 2
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 2
Women's Equality Party 2
Climate Party 1
Communist Party of Britain 1
English Democrats 1
Libertarian Party (UK) 1
Propel 1
Socialist Labour Party (UK) 1
True and Fair Party 1
UKIP 1
Total 235

Opinion polling

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election § Wales

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

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This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)
 
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Reform Green Others Lead
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 45% 18% 11% 5% 18% 4% 0% 27
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 45% 18% 12% 5% 13% 4% 1% 27
22–27 May 2024 More in Common N/A 805 45% 21% 13% 4% 12% 3% 1% 24
22 May 2024 Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 43% 19% 14% 3% 15% 6% 1% 24
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 40% 18% 14% 6% 18% 4% 0% 22
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 49% 16% 10% 5% 15% 5% 1% 33
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[16]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 45% 22% 10% 5% 13% 5% 1% 23
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 48% 20% 10% 4% 12% 4% 1% 28
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 47% 22% 11% 6% 10% 2% 0% 25
4–7 Dec 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,004 42% 20% 15% 7% 12% 3% 1% 22
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 44% 24% 13% 4% 9% 5% 1% 20
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 46% 26% 10% 3% 10% 4% 0% 20
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 44% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 50% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 41% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 46% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 43% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[17]
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 49% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[18]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov ? ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[19]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% – 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
 9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[20]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

Seat projections

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Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Notes
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,237 35 0 4 1 Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 22 14 4 0

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
  2. ^ Sat as an independent from June 2023.
  3. ^ Sat as an independent from July 2020.

References

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  1. ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  2. ^ Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  3. ^ Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  4. ^ "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  5. ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
  6. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
  7. ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
  8. ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  9. ^ "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
  10. ^ "Christina Rees readmitted to Labour after apology over bullying claims". The Guardian. 1 February 2024. Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...
  11. ^ @KevinBrennanMP (27 May 2024). "I'm announcing my decision to stand down as Cardiff West MP after 23 years - thank you to local Labour members and constituents for your friendship and support" (Tweet). Retrieved 28 May 2024 – via Twitter.
  12. ^ "Geraint Davies says he is 'unable' to stand for Labour because of suspension". Express & Star. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  13. ^ "MP cautioned for assaulting his wife confirms he wont be standing for re-election/". Nation.Cymru. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Democracy Club Candidates". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
  15. ^ In electoral pact with the Labour Party, all candidates are also standing for the Labour Party
  16. ^ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  17. ^ "Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth". 16 June 2023. Archived from the original on 20 November 2023. Retrieved 20 November 2023 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  18. ^ "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  19. ^ "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  20. ^ "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
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