Talk:Causes of the Great Recession

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Several reasons for concern:

There are several reasons to be very concerned about this article. One is the un-encyclopedic tone of its introduction. Another is that it appears to give undue weight to the fringe "Austrian School" of economics. Yet another is that it appears to be an unnecessary (And possibly POV) fork of [[1]].

Bkalafut (talk) 18:10, 23 January 2012 (UTC)

It's funny how you make POV accusations while referring to Austrian economics as "fringe". What a dipshit. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 203.129.23.146 (talk) 09:02, 15 April 2013 (UTC)

I'd agree with most of those points. It does look rather like a pov-fork. bobrayner (talk) 18:38, 23 January 2012 (UTC)

Surely there should be some mention in this article about the layoffs in state and local governments that occurred in response to budget crunches at those levels?CreighGordon (talk) 16:24, 8 January 2014 (UTC)

Anytime some one sinks to using expletives it convinces me that person lacks the education, upbringing or self-control to be taken seriously. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 75.134.75.111 (talk) 03:22, 17 December 2015 (UTC)

Sub-prime lending as a cause

This sentence needs more details:

"Based on the assumption that sub-prime lending precipitated the crisis, some have argued that the Clinton Administration may be partially to blame, while others have pointed to the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act by the 106th Congress, and over-leveraging by banks and investors eager to achieve high returns on capital."

Sure, some have argued this but data needs to be cited about the real state of the mortgage market during this period.

This GAO brief,

Briefing to the Committee on Financial Services, House of Representatives

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0878r.pdf

plainly shows a chart (page 11) that Alt-A and sub-prime lending was level until 2003. It went up dramatically from 2003 to 2004 the steadily rose until 2006 (the last data shown). President Bush took office on January 20, 2001.

Based on this, the sentence should be changed to:

"Based on the assumption that sub-prime lending precipitated the crisis, some have argued that the Clinton Administration may be partially to blame. However, this chart plainly demonstrates that sub-prime and Alt-A loans clearly peaked during President Bush's administration.

GAO Historical Data

Others have pointed to the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act by the 106th Congress, and over-leveraging by banks and investors eager to achieve high returns on capital."

Please let me know if there are issues and, if so, how you would recommend the data get cited. I will change it if I do not get objections on 2/4/12.

I would really appreciate all comments...

Markdart (talk) 22:48, 28 January 2012 (UTC)

Reverse Immigration?

Immigration has slowed, but despite this article's claim to the contrary, the number of illegal Mexicans in the U.S. increases annually. The slowing growth started after 2008, not in 2006.

"Approximately 0.5 million dwellings have become permanently vacant as a result of a reduction in the illegal immigrant population. The greatest impact has been on the California economy, where illegal immigrants comprise approximately 1/3 of the total population. The reduced demand for housing created permanent unemployment for hundreds of thousands of building contractors, realtors, and mortgage brokers."

The sources listed are "Trade Winds from the East" and "Mexico eager for Chinese investment".

Aside from the fact that neither source is "reliable," neither one mentions immigration. Also, 1/3 of the people in California aren't illegal immigrants. Monterey County and Los Angeles County have the highest numbers (as a per cent). Both average 1 in 7, not 1 in 3.

I propose that the entire paragraph be deleted. First, because illegal immigration continues to grow, not shrink. Second, because the sources are unreliable and don't mention immigration. Third because no serious economist would ever say that there is a link.--205.155.65.233 (talk) 20:37, 24 March 2012 (UTC)

I agree that this paragraph is political bunk and should be removed. It fails to mention that illegal immigration places an added burden on social services and assited housing and takes jobs away for locals thus contributing to the economic woes. 94.31.12.66 (talk) 09:06, 4 July 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, a supply of people who come to work but who are excluded from many government services is obviously going to drag the economy down. And the USA is the only country in the world. bobrayner (talk) 18:33, 4 July 2012 (UTC)

Austrian school

I found six mentions of "Austrian school" or "Austrian" economics in the article. Is this not rather a lot for a fringe group? --BoogaLouie (talk) 17:22, 16 May 2012 (UTC)

Agreed. (I'd argue that this is not the only article where the Austrians are overrepresented). bobrayner (talk) 18:31, 17 May 2012 (UTC)

The Austrian school may actually be larger then most so called mainstream groups which have splintered into pieces in vain attempts to explain the deficiencies in their theories. 71.174.141.4 (talk) 00:21, 3 October 2012 (UTC)

Also considering that the Austrian School was the ONLY school of economics which was endlessly predicting a bad end to the credit bubble, why should it not get outsize representation?71.174.141.4 (talk) 01:00, 3 October 2012 (UTC)

Because the "credit bubble" and the "Austrian School" are both WP:FRINGE. — ArtifexMayhem (talk) 14:26, 6 October 2012 (UTC)

This is a myth, largely perpetuated by youtube videos. Many economists predicted the recession as early as 2002. Dean Baker, Robert Shiller, Michael Hudson, Steve Keen, etc. --Frybread (talk) 22:21, 12 February 2013 (UTC)

Agreed. All "Austrian" mentions on this article can be removed WP:FRINGE. --Frybread (talk) 22:21, 12 February 2013 (UTC)

"Excessive debt levels as the cause" section

There are no citations and it's written like an opinion piece.

It needs to be totally redone or axed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 108.172.11.102 (talk) 22:53, 13 November 2012 (UTC)

I agree. There was another huge cause behind that. Debt consumers were acting in rational self-interest, but the mortgage backed security, credit default swap, and collateralized debt obligation sub-sectors of the finance industry were offering them far lower interest and far greater approval rates because they were calculating risk with gaussian copula formulas which strictly assumed the independence of components, when in fact the credit-worthiness almost every new mortgage in the world was highly correlated with that of any other because of linkages through consumer spending levels. This was an error in risk pricing, not an error on the part of consumers taking on debt, unless we believe that consumers have an ethical obligation to audit the (at that time very opaque) risk pricing methodologies of the MBS/CDS/CDO brokers, which is simply unheard of. This is one of the things I feel very strongly about and this article could certainly do a much better job of explaining it. EllenCT (talk) 22:19, 3 April 2013 (UTC)

I added a paragraph about that to this and three other closely related articles. EllenCT (talk) 22:52, 3 April 2013 (UTC)

Merge

A recent requested move discussion at Causes of the 2007–2012 global financial crisis found consensus for merging that article with this one, with "Causes of the Great Recession" being the preferred title. The merge can be undertaken by a knowledgeable editor at any time.--Cúchullain ^t/c 12:48, 3 April 2013 (UTC)

• I have made a first rough merger. I am sure this needs further work so other editors are welcome to improve this. I will also return to work on it more. Rlsheehan (talk) 21:27, 11 April 2013 (UTC)

While we don't want two article on the same topic, it seems a shame to lose dates. This name won't mean much in ten years (or maybe even now) to most people IMO. Student7 (talk) 21:10, 16 April 2013 (UTC)

Worldwide bubbles?

The reality is that the GR was caused by American policies and an American property and financial crisis. I believe that it is simply not correct to say that: "country after country, as lenders and borrowers put these savings to use, generating bubble after bubble across the globe. While these bubbles have burst, causing asset prices (e.g., housing and commercial property) to decline".

The collapsing bubbles were in the USA, not other countries.Royalcourtier (talk) 10:11, 1 April 2014 (UTC)

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