The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Osun State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editOsun State is a small, Yoruba-majority southwestern state with vast natural areas and rich cultural heritage but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and high debt. The state's 2019 elections were competitiveness with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari barely winning the state and all three Senate races being fairly close. Of the Senate elections, two seats went to the APC and one went to the PDP while the House of Representatives elections went 6 APC and 3 PDP. Contrastly, the APC won a large majority in the State House of Assembly. Two years later, Ademola Adeleke (PDP) unseated Gboyega Oyetola (APC)—the incumbent Governor, winning by 3.5% of the vote;[2] however, the election result was overturned by the tribunal and the court dispute continues as of January 2023.[3][4]
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 18% | 8% | 0% | 21% | – | 40% | 4% | 10% |
| Nextier (Osun crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 17.6% | 19.1% | – | 76% | 2.9% | – | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Osun crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 2% | 7% | – | 1% | – | 89% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][5] | Likely Tinubu | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 38.27% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 19.99% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25.18% | ||
| Others: | 16.56% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][7] |
Tinubu | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][8] | Abubakar | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][9] | |||
| Tinubu: | 35% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 5% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 5% | ||
| Abubakar: | 35% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 20% | ||
| The Nation[f][10][11] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Osun Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Osun East Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Osun West Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Atakunmosa East/Atakunmosa West/ Ilesa East/Ilesa West Federal Constituency[j] |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ayedaade/Isokan/Irewole Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Aiyedire/Iwo/Ola-Oluwa Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Boluwaduro/Ifedayo/Ila Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ede North/Ede South/Egbedore/Ejigbo Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ife Central/Ife East/Ife North/Ife South Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Irepodun/Olorunda/Osogbo/Orolu Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Odo-Otin/Boripe/Ifelodun Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Aiyedaade | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Aiyedire | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Atakunmosa East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Atakunmosa West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Boluwaduro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Boripe | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ede North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ede South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Egbedore | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ejigbo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ife Central | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ife East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ife North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ife South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ifedayo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ifelodun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ila | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilesa East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilesa West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Irepodun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Irewole | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isokan | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Iwo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Obokun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Odo Otin | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ola Oluwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Olorunda | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oriade | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Osogbo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Boluwaduro, Boripe, Ifedayo, Ifelodun, Ila, Irepodun, Odo Otin, Olorunda, Orolu, and Osogbo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, Ife South, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Obokun, and Oriade.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aiyedaade, Aiyedire, Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Irewole, Isokan, Iwo, and Ola-Oluwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ilesa East, and Ilesa West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aiyedaade, Irewole, and Isokan.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aiyedire, Iwo, and Ola Oluwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Boluwaduro, Ifedayo, and Ila.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, and Ejigbo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, and Ife South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Irepodun, Osun, Olorunda, Orolu, and Osogbo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Obokun and Oriade.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Boripe, Ifelodun, and Odo Otin.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Independent National Electoral Commission [@inecnigeria] (17 July 2022). "Declaration of Result of the Osun State Governorship Election, held on Saturday 16th July 2022" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Ogundapo, Abdulqudus (27 January 2023). "UPDATED: Osun tribunal sacks Adeleke declares Oyetola governor". Premium Times. Retrieved 27 January 2023.
- ^ "Osun Governorship: Adeleke rejects Tribunal ruling, heads to Appeal Court". Premium Times. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 27 January 2023.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.