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World Football Elo Ratings as of 30 July 2019.[1]
Top 20 rankings
Rank Change Team Points
1 Increase 1  Brazil 2126
2 Decrease 1  France 2050
3 Steady  Belgium 2049
4 Steady  Spain 2029
5 Increase 4  Colombia 2012
6 Increase 2  Portugal 1981
7 Increase 4  Netherlands 1979
8 Decrease 3  Germany 1971
9 Decrease 3  Uruguay 1956
10 Steady  England 1940
11 Increase 2  Argentina 1926
12 Increase 2  Italy 1922
13 Increase 3   Switzerland 1901
14 Decrease 2  Denmark 1890
15 Decrease 8  Croatia 1886
16 Increase 3  Mexico 1885
17 Decrease 3  Peru 1876
18 Steady  Sweden 1827
19 Increase 9  Ukraine 1825
20 Decrease 3  Chile 1810
*Change from one year ago
Complete rankings at eloratings.net

The World Football Elo Ratings is a ranking system for men's national association football teams that is published by the website eloratings.net. It is based on the Elo rating system but includes modifications to take various football-specific variables into account, like the margin of victory, importance of a match, and home field advantage. Other implementations of the Elo rating system are possible and there is no single nor any official Elo ranking for football teams.

Since being developed, the Elo rankings have been found to have the highest predictive capability for football matches.[2] FIFA's official rankings, both the FIFA World Rankings for men and the FIFA Women's World Rankings are based on a modified version of the Elo formula, the men's rankings having switched away from FIFA's own system for matches played since June 2018.[3]

Contents

Ranking by matches played as leaderEdit

The following is the list of nations who have achieved the number-one position in the World Football Elo Ratings since the first international match in 1872, ranked by number of days at the top position.[4]

Nation Games[a] Days as
leader[b]
First date
as leader
Last date
as leader
  Brazil 301 8,772 12 Jun 1958 current
  England 154 10,605 30 Nov 1872 11 Jun 1988
  Germany [c] 139 4,704 25 Jul 1966 9 Nov 2017
  Argentina 123 9,165 20 Jul 1902 10 Nov 2016
  Spain 78 2,869 28 Aug 1920 12 Oct 2013
  France 73 2,022 12 Sep 1984 11 Oct 2018
  Hungary 57 1,897 20 Sep 1952 13 Mar 1960
  Scotland 42 5,966 4 Mar 1876 20 Oct 1926
  Italy 41 2,694 7 Jun 1934 16 Aug 2006
  Soviet Union [d] 41 1,367 21 Mar 1963 25 Jun 1988
  Uruguay 37 1,794 29 Aug 1920 16 Jun 1929
  Netherlands 32 1,039 1 Jun 1978 4 Jul 2014
  Denmark 6 676 5 Jun 1914 8 Oct 1916
  Austria 3 11 27 May 1934 7 Jun 1934
  Czech Republic 2 8 27 Jun 2004 8 Jun 2005
  1. ^ Number of games played (started) with the highest Elo rating amongst nations
  2. ^ Days spent as co-leaders are counted as a ½ day
  3. ^ Combined record of the Germany (1908–1950 & 1990–present) and West Germany (1950–1990) national football teams.
  4. ^ So far, only the Soviet Union national football team (1924–1992) has reached the #1 position, but any future efforts by the Russia national football team (1992–present) will be included.

History and overviewEdit

The Elo system, developed by Hungarian-American mathematician Arpad Elo, is used by FIDE, the international chess federation, to rate chess players, and by the European Go Federation, to rate Go players. In 1997, Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football and posted the results on the Internet.[5] He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site, currently maintained by Kirill Bulygin. Other implementations of the Elo rating system are possible [2] but the Runyan system is the best known.

The Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result.

The factors taken into consideration when calculating a team's new rating are:

  • The team's old rating
  • The considered weight of the tournament
  • The goal difference of the match
  • The result of the match
  • The expected result of the match

The different weights of competitions in descending order are:

The ratings consider all official international matches for which results are available. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches.[6] Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches are considered provisional.

Comparison with other systemsEdit

A 2009 comparative study of eight methods found that the implementation of the Elo rating system described below had the highest predictive capability for football matches, while the men's FIFA ranking method (2006–2018 system) performed poorly.[2]

The FIFA World Rankings is the official national teams rating system used by the international governing body of football. The FIFA Women's World Rankings system has used a modified version of the Elo formula since 2003. In June 2018, the FIFA ranking switched to an Elo-based ranking as well, starting from the current FIFA rating points.[7]

Calculation principlesEdit

The ratings are based on the following formulae:

 

where

 

Where;

  = The new team rating
  = The old team rating
  = Weight index regarding the tournament of the match
  = A number from the index of goal differences
  = The result of the match
  = The expected result
  = Points change

"Points Change" is rounded to the nearest integer before updating the team rating.

Status of matchEdit

The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The constant reflects the importance of a match, which, in turn, is determined entirely by which tournament the match is in; the weight constant for each major tournament is:

Tournament or Match type K
World Cup, Olympic Games (1908–1980) 60
Continental championship and intercontinental tournaments 50
World Cup and Continental qualifiers and major tournaments 40
All other tournaments 30
Friendly matches 20

Number of goalsEdit

The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index.

If the game is a draw or is won by one goal

 

If the game is won by two goals

 

If the game is won by three or more goals

  • Where N is the goal difference
 

Table of examples:

Goal Difference G
0 1
+1 1
+2 1.5
+3 1.75
+4 1.875
+5 2
+6 2.125

Result of matchEdit

W is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss). This also holds when a game is won or lost on extra time. If the match is decided on penalties, however, the result of the game is considered a draw (W = 0.5).

Expected result of matchEdit

We is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following formula:

 

where dr equals the difference in ratings (add 100 points for the home team). So dr of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher-ranked team and 0.334 to the lower, and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher-ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.

Examples for clarificationEdit

The same example of a three-team friendly tournament on neutral territory is used as on the FIFA World Rankings page. Beforehand team A had a rating of 630 points, team B 500 points, and teams C 480 points.
The first table shows the points allocations based on three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker team B:

Team A Team B Team A Team B Team A Team B
Score 3 : 1 1 : 3 2 : 2
  20 20 20 20 20 20
  1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
  1 0 0 1 0.5 0.5
  0.679 0.321 0.679 0.321 0.679 0.321
Total (P) +9.63 −9.63 −20.37 +20.37 −3.58 +3.58

When the difference in strength between the two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The next table illustrates how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved:

Team B Team C Team B Team C Team B Team C
Score 3–1 1–3 2–2
  20 20 20 20 20 20
  1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
  1 0 0 1 0.5 0.5
  0.529 0.471 0.529 0.471 0.529 0.471
Total (P) +14.13 −14.13 −15.87 +15.87 −0.58 +0.58

Team B drops more points by losing to Team C, which has shown about the same strength, than by losing to Team A, which has been considerably better than Team B.

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b c d Elo rankings change compared to one year ago. "World Football Elo Ratings". eloratings.net. 30 July 2019. Retrieved 30 July 2019.
  2. ^ a b c J. Lasek, Z. Szlávik and S. Bhulai (2013), The predictive power of ranking systems in association football, Int. J. Applied Pattern Recognition1: 27-46.
  3. ^ "2026 FIFA World Cup™: FIFA Council designates bids for final voting by the FIFA Congress". fifa.com. FIFA. 10 June 2018. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
  4. ^ Graph of rankings at eloratings.net. Yearly graphs, like this one for 2018, give enough resolution. For individual dates, the Elo ratings table is also a good source.
  5. ^ Lyons, Kieth. "What are the World Football Elo Ratings?". The Conversation. Retrieved 16 July 2018.
  6. ^ "The World Football Elo Rating System". Eloratings.net. Retrieved 26 February 2012.
  7. ^ FIFA Council, 2026 FIFA World Cup™: FIFA Council designates bids for final voting by the FIFA Congress, 10 Jun 2018

External linksEdit