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2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] West Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. West Virginia had five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout63.25% Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 545,382 235,984
Percentage 68.62% 29.69%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Trump easily carried West Virginia on Election Day by 38.9 points, down from 42.1 points in 2016. Prior to the election, all 16 news organizations declared West Virginia a safe, or likely, red state. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.

With 68.62% of its vote, this would prove to be Trump's second strongest state in 2020, only behind Wyoming, and overall would be the largest share of the vote won by any presidential candidate in West Virginia.

Since West Virginia has only become a very safe Republican stronghold in recent elections, Biden is only the third Democrat ever to win the presidency without carrying the state, after Barack Obama and Woodrow Wilson.

Primary elections

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The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 12, 2020. In April, they were moved to June 9 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]

Democratic primary

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Vice President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary and received all of West Virginia's 28 pledged delegates, as well as all six unpledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) delegates, to the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary § WVresults.[edit]
2020 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 122,518 65.35 28
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 22,793 12.16
David Lee Rice 15,470 8.25
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 5,741 3.06
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 4,163 2.22
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 3,759 2.01
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 3,455 1.84
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 3,011 1.61
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 2,590 1.38
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,865 0.99
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 1,235 0.66
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 882 0.47
Total 187,482 100% 28

Republican primary

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Incumbent President Donald Trump won the Republican primary and received all of West Virginia's 35 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 West Virginia Republican presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 West Virginia Republican presidential primary
Candidate Popular vote[7] Pledged
delegates[8]
# %
Donald Trump (incumbent) 198,691 94.39 35
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 3,806 1.81 0
Bill Weld (withdrawn) 3,721 1.77 0
Rocky De La Fuente 1,537 0.73 0
Bob Ely 1,436 0.68 0
Matthew Mattern 1,315 0.62 0
Total 210,506 100% 35

Mountain (Green) primary

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West Virginia's Green Party affiliate conducted an online party-run primary, utilizing the state's original primary date of May 12, 2020, as its deadline.

West Virginia Mountain (Green) Party presidential primary[9]
Candidate Percentage National delegates
Howie Hawkins 78.3% 5
David Rolde 8.7% 0
Jesse Ventura (write-in) 8.7% 0
Dario Hunter 4.3% 0
Total 100.00% 5

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[13] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[14] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[16] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Safe R September 2, 2020
CBS News[18] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[19] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[20] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[21] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Safe R August 6, 2020
538[23] Safe R September 9, 2020

Polling

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Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[24] October 13–23, 2020 November 3, 2020 38.5% 55.5% 6.0% Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight[25] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 33.5% 62.1% 4.4% Trump +28.6
Average 36.0% 58.8% 5.2% Trump +22.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Mountain 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 816 (LV) ± 5% 67%[c] 32% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Oct 1–28, 2020 1,359 (LV) – 66% 32% – – – –
Triton Polling and Research/WMOV[27] Oct 19–21, 2020 544 (LV) ± 4.2% 58% 38% – – – 4%
Research America Inc./West Virginia Metro News[28] Oct 6–9, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 53% 39% 4% 1% – 3%
Triton Polling & Research/WMOV[29] Sep 29–30, 2020[d] 525 (RV) ± 4.3% 56% 38% – – – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Sep 1–30, 2020 516 (LV) – 62% 36% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Aug 1–31, 2020 496 (LV) – 65% 32% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Jul 1–31, 2020 494 (LV) – 67% 32% – – – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Jun 8–30, 2020 264 (LV) – 72% 27% – – – 1%
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth[30][A] Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 66% 31% – – – 3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth[30][A] Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4 % 66% 29% 5%
Tulchin Research[31] Oct 6–13, 2017 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 48% 6%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Zogby Analytics[32] Aug 17–23, 2017 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 40% 17%

Results

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Trump won West Virginia, carrying the popular vote in each of the state's 55 counties.[33]

2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia[34][35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		545,382 68.62 +0.10%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		235,984 29.69 +3.27%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		10,687 1.34 −1.88%
Mountain Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		2,599 0.33 −0.80%
Write-in 79 <0.01 +
Total votes 794,731 100.0 +

By congressional district

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Trump won all three congressional districts.[36]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 68% 30.3% David McKinley
2nd 65.4% 32.8% Alex Mooney
3rd 73.1% 25.5% Carol Miller

By county

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County Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barbour 5,116 76.62% 1,457 21.82% 104 1.56% 3,659 54.80% 6,677
Berkeley 33,279 64.57% 17,186 33.35% 1,074 2.08% 16,093 31.22% 51,539
Boone 6,816 75.62% 2,041 22.65% 156 1.73% 4,775 52.97% 9,013
Braxton 4,120 72.74% 1,457 25.72% 87 1.54% 2,663 47.02% 5,664
Brooke 7,545 70.81% 2,947 27.66% 164 1.53% 4,598 43.15% 10,656
Cabell 21,721 58.14% 14,994 40.13% 645 1.73% 6,727 18.01% 37,360
Calhoun 2,364 79.57% 568 19.12% 39 1.31% 1,796 60.45% 2,971
Clay 2,679 79.61% 641 19.05% 45 1.34% 2,038 60.56% 3,365
Doddridge 2,619 84.46% 435 14.03% 47 1.51% 2,184 70.43% 3,101
Fayette 11,580 68.64% 5,063 30.01% 227 1.35% 6,517 38.63% 16,870
Gilmer 2,012 75.58% 599 22.50% 51 1.92% 1,413 53.08% 2,662
Grant 4,871 88.40% 607 11.02% 32 0.58% 4,264 77.38% 5,510
Greenbrier 10,925 68.93% 4,655 29.37% 270 1.70% 6,270 39.56% 15,850
Hampshire 8,033 79.65% 1,939 19.22% 114 1.13% 6,094 60.43% 10,086
Hancock 9,806 71.05% 3,790 27.46% 206 1.49% 6,016 43.59% 13,802
Hardy 4,859 76.73% 1,381 21.81% 93 1.46% 3,478 54.92% 6,333
Harrison 20,683 67.89% 9,215 30.25% 567 1.86% 11,468 37.64% 30,465
Jackson 10,093 74.71% 3,207 23.74% 209 1.55% 6,886 50.97% 13,509
Jefferson 15,033 54.26% 12,127 43.77% 545 1.97% 2,906 10.49% 27,705
Kanawha 46,398 56.41% 34,344 41.76% 1,508 1.83% 12,054 14.65% 82,250
Lewis 5,782 77.52% 1,538 20.62% 139 1.86% 4,244 56.90% 7,459
Lincoln 6,012 76.77% 1,711 21.85% 108 1.38% 4,301 54.92% 7,831
Logan 10,534 80.87% 2,333 17.91% 159 1.22% 8,201 62.96% 13,026
Marion 16,300 63.18% 8,901 34.50% 598 2.32% 7,399 28.68% 25,799
Marshall 10,435 74.11% 3,455 24.54% 190 1.35% 6,980 49.57% 14,080
Mason 8,491 75.77% 2,526 22.54% 189 1.69% 5,965 53.23% 11,206
McDowell 5,148 78.87% 1,333 20.42% 46 0.71% 3,815 58.45% 6,527
Mercer 19,237 76.53% 5,556 22.10% 342 1.37% 13,681 54.43% 25,135
Mineral 10,040 77.97% 2,660 20.66% 176 1.37% 7,380 57.31% 12,876
Mingo 8,544 85.22% 1,397 13.93% 85 0.85% 7,147 71.29% 10,026
Monongalia 20,803 49.44% 20,282 48.20% 994 2.36% 521 1.24% 42,079
Monroe 5,068 78.09% 1,345 20.72% 77 1.19% 3,723 57.37% 6,490
Morgan 6,537 75.17% 1,998 22.98% 161 1.85% 4,539 52.19% 8,696
Nicholas 8,279 77.86% 2,226 20.93% 128 1.21% 6,053 56.93% 10,633
Ohio 12,354 62.08% 7,223 36.30% 323 1.62% 5,131 25.78% 19,900
Pendleton 2,782 76.03% 820 22.41% 57 1.56% 1,962 53.62% 3,659
Pleasants 2,742 78.54% 699 20.02% 50 1.44% 2,043 58.52% 3,491
Pocahontas 2,895 72.21% 1,047 26.12% 67 1.57% 1,848 46.09% 4,009
Preston 11,190 76.79% 3,163 21.70% 220 1.51% 8,027 55.09% 14,573
Putnam 20,034 70.29% 7,878 27.64% 589 2.07% 12,156 42.65% 28,501
Raleigh 24,673 74.51% 7,982 24.10% 459 1.39% 16,691 50.41% 33,114
Randolph 8,673 71.09% 3,362 27.56% 165 1.35% 5,311 43.53% 12,200
Ritchie 3,649 85.20% 586 13.68% 48 1.12% 3,063 71.52% 4,283
Roane 4,213 73.10% 1,455 25.25% 95 1.65% 2,758 47.85% 5,763
Summers 4,074 72.95% 1,448 25.93% 63 1.12% 2,626 47.02% 5,585
Taylor 5,477 74.18% 1,796 24.33% 110 1.49% 3,681 49.85% 7,383
Tucker 2,841 73.89% 938 24.40% 66 1.71% 1,903 49.49% 3,845
Tyler 3,226 82.23% 631 16.08% 66 1.69% 2,595 66.15% 3,923
Upshur 7,771 76.01% 2,256 22.07% 196 1.92% 5,515 53.94% 10,223
Wayne 12,585 74.26% 4,088 24.12% 274 1.62% 8,497 50.14% 16,947
Webster 2,759 81.10% 610 17.93% 33 0.97% 2,149 63.17% 3,402
Wetzel 4,993 74.87% 1,539 23.08% 137 2.05% 3,454 51.79% 6,669
Wirt 2,134 80.44% 466 17.57% 53 1.99% 1,668 62.87% 2,653
Wood 27,202 70.17% 10,926 28.19% 637 1.64% 16,276 41.98% 38,765
Wyoming 7,353 85.58% 1,157 13.47% 82 0.95% 6,196 72.11% 8,592
Totals 545,382 68.62% 235,984 29.69% 13,365 1.69% 309,398 38.93% 794,731
 
 

Analysis

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West Virginia, which was solidly Democratic territory for much of the 20th century, has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Republicans started making gains in the state in the 21st century due to championing of environmentalism by Democrats such as 2000 Democratic nominee Al Gore, which challenged entrenched coal-mining interests.[37][38]

West Virginia gave Trump his second-highest vote share in 2020, swapping places with Wyoming, after having been Trump's strongest state by vote share in 2016.[39] This is the best Republican performance in state history, surpassing the record set in the previous election. West Virginia was one of two states where Trump won every county, the other being Oklahoma.[40] The closest county in the state, and the only one Trump won without a majority of the vote, was Monongalia County, home to Morgantown and the main campus of West Virginia University. Biden's losing margin of 1.24% in Monongalia marked the closest a Democrat has come to winning any county in West Virginia since 2008. This was the third consecutive presidential election where every county within the state voted Republican, but the first since 1996 in which the Democratic vote share increased relative to the preceding election. Biden received over 40% of the vote in only 4 counties - Monongalia; Kanawha County, home to the state capital and largest city Charleston; Cabell County, home to Marshall University and to the state's second largest city Huntington; and Jefferson County, home to Washington, D.C., exurbs.[33]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in West Virginia came from voters who prioritized protecting and expanding production of fossil fuels, such as coal, who comprised 58% of voters and broke for Trump by 90%.[41] Trump's strongest region was southern West Virginia. This coal-mining, union-heavy region was once among the most heavily Democratic places in the nation; Logan County, for example, broke 72% of its ballots for Bill Clinton in 1996, 61% for Al Gore in 2000, 52% for John Kerry in 2004, and even 51% for George McGovern in his only statewide county win in 1972; but by 2008, John McCain flipped it to the Republican column with 54% of the vote, which increased to 68% for Mitt Romney in 2012 and by 2016 and 2020, it had voted 79.6% and 80.9% for Trump, respectively.[36]

During the same election cycle, incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito was re-elected by a margin slightly larger than Trump's, beating out Democrat Paula Jean Swearengin by 43.3 points.[42]

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Gov. Jim Justice announces WV Primary Election will move to June 9, schools will remain closed through April 30". WBOY-TV. April 1, 2020.
  4. ^ "West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  5. ^ "Results – Democratic Contests". results.enr.clarityelections.com/. West Virginia Secretary of State. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
  6. ^ "West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
  7. ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved July 1, 2020.
  8. ^ "West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved July 1, 2020.
  9. ^ "Results - 2020 Presidential Primary". Mountain Party. May 12, 2020. Retrieved May 12, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  16. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  17. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  22. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. ^ "West Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  25. ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "West Virginia : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  26. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
  27. ^ "Triton Polling and Research/WMOV" (PDF).
  28. ^ McElhinny, Brad (October 13, 2020). "West Virginians favor Trump over Biden for president, latest poll shows".
  29. ^ "Poll shows incumbents leading races for surveyed WV voters". October 6, 2020.
  30. ^ a b "WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth" (PDF).
  31. ^ "Tulchin Research" (PDF).
  32. ^ "Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll: Trump approval/Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states". zogbyanalytics.com.
  33. ^ a b "West Virginia Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
  34. ^ "West Virginia 2020 General Election". Green Papers. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  35. ^ Certificate of Ascertainment, West Virginia Secretary of State, December 9, 2020.
  36. ^ a b "2020 Presidential General Election Results - West Virginia".
  37. ^ "Deep in Virginia's craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope". Washington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  38. ^ Thomas, Zoe (November 2, 2016). "Coal country West Virginia feels forgotten by politics". BBC News. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  39. ^ "West Virginia Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  40. ^ "Oklahoma election results". Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  41. ^ "West Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  42. ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election - Official Results". West Virginia State - Clarity Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
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