Wikipedia

User:NickMartin/SecondColdWarDrafting

< User:NickMartin

Russia-United States tensions

edit
See also: Russia–United States relations, Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, Cyberwarfare by Russia, and Cyberwarfare in the United States

Debate over the term

edit

Sources disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future,[1][2][3][4][5] while others have used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions, hostilities, and political rivalries that intensified dramatically in 2014 between Russia, the United States and their respective allies.[6] Stephen F. Cohen,[7] Robert D. Crane,[8] and Alex Vatanka[9] have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War".

Sources opposed to the term argue that while new tensions between Russia and the West have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences,[10] and provide Russia with new avenues for exerting influence, such as in Belarus and Central Asia, which have not seen the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like Ukraine and the Caucasus region.[11]

In June 2014, the North Macedonian Ministry of Defense published an article asserting that the term "Cold War II" was as a misnomer.[12] In an interview with Time magazine in December 2014, Mikhail Gorbachev said that the US under Barack Obama was dragging Russia into a new cold war.[13]

In February 2016, at the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War",[14] while Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy on Russia, said "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War".[15] In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg said that NATO did not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia.[16][17]

In February 2016, a Higher School of Economics university academic and Harvard University visiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote on E-International Relations that "the world is not entering Cold War II", asserting that the current tensions and ideologies of both sides are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that situations in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilise other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was".[18] In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, argued that current tensions were not comparable to the Cold War. He noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, saying that conflicts were no longer ideologically bipolar.[19]

In August 2016, Daniel Larison of The American Conservative magazine wrote that tensions between Russia and the United States would not "constitute a 'new Cold War'" especially between democracy and authoritarianism, which Larison found more limited than and not as significant in 2010s as that of the Soviet-Union era.[20] Andrew Kuchins, an American political scientist and Kremlinologist speaking in December 2016, believed the term was "unsuited to the present conflict" as it may be more dangerous than the Cold War.[21]

In August 2017, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denied claims that the US and Russia were having another cold war, despite ongoing tensions between the two countries and newer US sanctions against Russia.[22] A University of East Anglia graduate student Oliver Steward[23] and the Casimir Pulaski Foundation senior fellow Stanisław Koziej[24] in 2017 attributed Zapad 2017 exercise, a military exercise by Russia, as part of the new Cold War.

In March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalist Megyn Kelly in an interview: "My point of view is that the individuals that have said that a new Cold War has started are not analysts. They do propaganda."[25] Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at the CNA Corporation and a fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute said that the new cold war for Russia "is about its survival as a power in the international order, and also about holding on to the remnants of the Russian empire". Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the US Naval War College claims that the situations in Georgia and Ukraine "seemed to offer the requisite storyline for new Cold War".[26] Also in March 2018, Harvard University professors Stephen Walt[27] and then Odd Arne Westad[28] criticised application of the term to increasing tensions between the Russia and the West as "misleading",[27] "distract[ing]",[27] and too simplistic to describe the more complicated contemporary international politics.

In October 2018, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer told Deutsche Welle that the new Cold War would make the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and other Cold War-era treaties "irrelevant because they correspond to a totally different world situation."[29] In February 2019, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the withdrawal from the INF treaty would not lead to "a new Cold War".[30][31][32][33]

Russian news agency TASS reported the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying "I don't think that we should talk about a new Cold War", adding that the US development of low-yield nuclear warheads (the first of which entered production in January 2019[34]) had increased the potential for the use of nuclear weapons.[30]

On May 8, 2022, Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson said at the Milken Institute Global Conference that "Cold War II began some time ago".[35] He also said "Cold War II is different, though, because in Cold War II, China's the senior partner, and Russia's the junior partner",[35] and "in Cold War II, the first hot war breaks out in Europe, rather than Asia."[35]

Middle East conflicts

edit

In 2013, Michael Klare compared in RealClearPolitics tensions between Russia and the West to the ongoing proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.[36] Oxford Professor Philip N. Howard argued that a new cold war was being fought via the media, information warfare, and cyberwar.[37]

Some observers, including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,[38] judged the Syrian civil war to be a proxy war between Russia and the United States,[39][40] and even a "proto-world war".[41] In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues".[42]

In April 2018 relations deteriorated over a potential US-led military strike in Middle East after the Douma chemical attack in Syria, which was attributed to the Syrian Army by rebel forces in Douma, and poisoning of the Skripals in the UK. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, told a meeting of the UN Security Council that "the Cold War was back with a vengeance". He suggested the dangers were even greater, as the safeguards that existed to manage such a crisis "no longer seem to be present".[43] Dmitri Trenin supported Guterres' statement, but added that it began in 2014 and had been intensifying since, resulting in US-led strikes on the Syrian government on 13 April 2018.[44]

In February 2022, journalist Marwan Bishara held the US and Russia responsible for pursuing "their own narrow interests", including then-US President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel and Putin's 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and for "pav[ing] the way for, well, another Cold War".[45]

Russo-Ukrainian War

edit
See also: Russo-Ukrainian War

2014-2015 Annexation of Crimea and war in Donbas

edit

In 2014, notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Russo-Ukrainian War,[46][47] that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring.[48][49] The American political scientist Robert Legvold also believes it started in 2013 during the Ukraine crisis.[50][51] Others argued that the term did not accurately describe the nature of relations between Russia and the West.[52][53]

The term "Cold War II" gained currency and relevance as tensions between Russia and the West escalated throughout the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine followed by the Russian military intervention and especially the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and European Union, imposed punitive measures on Russia, which introduced retaliatory measures.[54][55]

2015-2022

edit

In October 2016, John Sawers, a former MI6 chief, said he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington".[56] Similarly, Igor Zevelev, a fellow at the Wilson Center, said that "it's not a Cold War [but] a much more dangerous and unpredictable situation".[57] CNN opined: "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict".[57]

In January 2017, a former US Government adviser Molly K. McKew said at Politico that the US would win a new cold war.[58] The New Republic editor Jeet Heer dismissed the possibility as "equally troubling[,] reckless threat inflation, wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power in support of a costly policy", and too centred on Russia while "ignoring the rise of powers like China and India". Heer also criticised McKew for suggesting the possibility.[59] Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution, wrote in his blog post at RealClearPolitics, referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result".[60]

Speaking to the press in Berlin on 8 November 2019, a day before the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, U.S. secretary of state Mike Pompeo warned of the dangers posed by Russia and China and specifically accused Russia, "led by a former KGB officer once stationed in Dresden", of invading its neighbours and crushing dissent. Jonathan Marcus of the BBC opined that Pompeo's words "appeared to be declaring the outbreak of a second [Cold War]".[61]

2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine

edit
See also: 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and Prelude to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

In February 2022, journalist H. D. S. Greenway cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine and 4 February joint statement between Russia and China (under Putin and Xi Jinping) as one of the signs that Cold War II had officially begun.[62]

In March 2022, Yale historian Arne Westad and Harvard historian Fredrik Logevall in a videotelephony conversation asserted "that the global showdown over Ukraine" would "not signal a second Cold War". Furthermore, Westad said that Putin's words about Ukraine resembled, which Harvard journalist James F. Smith summarized, "some of the colonial racial arguments of imperial powers of the past, ideas from the late 19th and early 20th century rather than the Cold War."[63]

In June 2022, journalist Gideon Rachman asserted the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the start of the second Cold War.[64]

  1. ^ Mamlyuk, Boris N. (6 July 2015). "The Ukraine Crisis, Cold War II, and International Law". The German Law Journal. SSRN 2627417. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  2. ^ Pavel Koshkin (25 April 2014). "What a new Cold War between Russia and the US means for the world". Archived from the original on 16 November 2015. Retrieved 11 November 2015.
  3. ^ Rojansky & Salzman, Matthew & Rachel S (20 March 2015). "Debunked: Why There Won't Be Another Cold War". The National Interest. The National Interest. Archived from the original on 6 March 2016. Retrieved 25 February 2016.
  4. ^ Lawrence Solomon (9 October 2015). "Lawrence Solomon: Cold War II? Nyet". Financial Post. Archived from the original on 16 November 2015. Retrieved 6 November 2015.
  5. ^ "Russia v the West: Is this a new Cold War?". BBC News. 1 April 2018. Archived from the original on 16 July 2019. Retrieved 9 September 2019.
  6. ^ "Welcome to Cold War II". Foreign Policy. 4 March 2014. Archived from the original on 9 November 2014. Retrieved 10 November 2014.
  7. ^ Cohen, Stephen F. (14 February 2018). "If America 'Won the Cold War,' Why Is There Now a 'Second Cold War with Russia'?". The Nation. Archived from the original on 1 April 2018. Retrieved 1 April 2018.
  8. ^ Crane, Robert D. (12 February 2015). "Psychostrategic Warfare and a New U.S.-Russian Cold War". The American Muslim (Tam). Archived from the original on 16 March 2015. Retrieved 1 April 2018.
  9. ^ Vatanka, Alex (16 August 2016). "Russian Bombers in Iran and Tehran's Internal Power Struggle". The National Interest. Archived from the original on 1 April 2018. Retrieved 1 April 2018.
  10. ^ Stewart, James (7 March 2014). "Why Russia Can't Afford Another Cold War". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 1 December 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  11. ^ "Putin's 'Last and Best Weapon' Against Europe: Gas". 24 September 2014. Archived from the original on 6 January 2015. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  12. ^ "The Cold War II: Just Another Misnomer?". Archived 8 December 2015 at the Wayback Machine, Contemporary Macedonian Defence, vol. 14. no. 26, June 2014, pp. 49–60
  13. ^ Shuster, Simon (11 December 2014). "Exclusive: Gorbachev Blames the U.S. for Provoking 'New Cold War'". TIME. Archived from the original on 28 February 2016. Retrieved 25 February 2016.
  14. ^ "Russian PM Medvedev says new cold war is on". BBC News. BBC. 13 February 2016. Archived from the original on 14 February 2016. Retrieved 13 February 2016.
  15. ^ "Russian PM Medvedev equates relations with West to a 'new Cold War'". CNN. 13 February 2016. Archived from the original on 14 February 2016. Retrieved 13 February 2016.
  16. ^ "NATO chief says alliance 'does not want new Cold War'". BBC. 28 October 2016. Archived from the original on 13 April 2017. Retrieved 12 April 2017.
  17. ^ Palmer, Elizabeth (14 March 2017). "What our allies, and Putin, make of Trump's NATO ultimatum". CBS News. Archived from the original on 13 April 2017. Retrieved 12 April 2017.
  18. ^ Weber, Yuval (7 March 2016). "Are We in a Cold War or Not? 1989, 1991, and Great Power Dissatisfaction". E-International Relations. Archived from the original on 19 May 2017. Retrieved 11 June 2017.
  19. ^ Lavrov, Sergey (1 September 2016). "Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's remarks and answers to questions at a meeting with students and faculty at MGIMO University, Moscow, September 1, 2016". The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Archived from the original on 9 September 2016. Retrieved 8 September 2016.
  20. ^ Larison, Daniel (29 August 2016). "No, There Isn't A 'New Cold War' Between Democracy And Authoritarianism". The American Conservative. Archived from the original on 3 December 2019. Retrieved 2 December 2019.
  21. ^ "Elevation and Calibration: A New Russia Policy for America". Archived 13 December 2016 at the Wayback Machine: II. The Current Impasse: Not a New Cold War but Potentially More Dangerous, Center on Global Interests, December 2016, p. 9–12.
  22. ^ Isachenkov, Vladimir (23 August 2017). "Russian official says US and Russia aren't in new Cold War". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 5 September 2017. Retrieved 5 September 2017.
  23. ^ Steward, Oliver (9 December 2017). "Zapad 2017: Flashpoint of a new Cold War between West and Russia?". UK Defence Journal. Archived from the original on 21 December 2019. Retrieved 9 September 2019.
  24. ^ Koziej, Stanisław (21 September 2017). "ANALYSIS: Strategic findings from the 'Zapad 2017' military exercises: Russia is constructing strategic "circuit breaker" in its neo-Cold War game with the West". Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego. Translated by Albert Świdziński. Archived from the original on 25 December 2019. Retrieved 9 September 2019.
  25. ^ Lee Yen Nee (1 March 2018). "Putin: Our new weapons 'easily' beat anti-missile systems – but this is no Cold War". CNBC. Archived from the original on 4 March 2018. Retrieved 4 March 2018.
  26. ^ Marcus, Jonathan (1 April 2018). "Russia v the West: Is this a new Cold War?". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 April 2018. Retrieved 5 April 2018.
  27. ^ a b c Walt, Stephen M. (12 March 2018). "I Knew the Cold War. This Is No Cold War". Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 1 August 2018. Retrieved 8 February 2019.
  28. ^ Westad, Odd Arne (27 March 2018). "Has a New Cold War Really Begun?". Foreign Affair. Archived from the original on 9 February 2019. Retrieved 9 February 2019.
  29. ^ Felgenhauer, Pavel (22 October 2018). "Prepare for a 'new Cold War' without INF, Russia analyst says". DW (Interview). Archived from the original on 25 July 2019. Retrieved 25 July 2019.
  30. ^ a b "Lavrov predicts Cold War won't re-ignite following suspension of INF". Tass. 4 February 2019. Archived from the original on 7 February 2019. Retrieved 4 February 2019.
  31. ^ Ellyatt, Holly (7 February 2019). "Cold War has not been renewed despite breakdown of arms treaty, Russia foreign minister says". CNBC. Archived from the original on 8 February 2019. Retrieved 7 February 2019.
  32. ^ Ostroukh, Andrey; Balmforth, Tom (4 February 2019). Louise Heavens (ed.). "Russia: U.S. exit from nuclear pact would not mean new Cold War – RIA". Reuters. Archived from the original on 6 February 2019. Retrieved 7 February 2019.
  33. ^ "Лавров прокомментировал прекращение действия договора о РСМД" [Lavrov discusses the termination of the INF Treaty]. РИА Новости (in Russian). 4 February 2019. Archived from the original on 4 August 2019. Retrieved 4 August 2019.
  34. ^ "US nuclear weapons: first low-yield warheads roll off the production line". The Guardian. 28 January 2019. Archived from the original on 3 February 2019. Retrieved 4 February 2019.
  35. ^ a b c "Historian Niall Ferguson details 'Cold War II' — which 'began some time ago'". Yahoo Finance. May 8, 2022. Archived from the original on May 9, 2022.
  36. ^ Klare, Michael (1 June 2013). "Welcome to Cold War II". Tom Dispatch. RealClearWorld. Archived from the original on 15 February 2017. Retrieved 20 December 2016.
  37. ^ Cite error: The named reference Philip N. Howard was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  38. ^ "'The Cold War never ended...Syria is a Russian-American conflict' says Bashar al-Assad". The Telegraph. 14 October 2016. Archived from the original on 1 February 2017. Retrieved 24 January 2017.
  39. ^ "U.S. Weaponry Is Turning Syria Into Proxy War With Russia". The New York Times. 12 October 2015. Archived from the original on 15 October 2015. Retrieved 14 October 2015.
  40. ^ "U.S., Russia escalate involvement in Syria". CNN. 13 October 2015. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  41. ^ "Untangling the Overlapping Conflicts in the Syrian War". The New York Times. 18 October 2015. Archived from the original on 19 October 2015. Retrieved 19 October 2015.
  42. ^ "Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategy / Exclusive: UK warns of 'new Cold War' as Kremlin seeks to divide and rule in Europe". The Daily Telegraph. 16 January 2016. Archived from the original on 17 January 2016. Retrieved 17 January 2016.
  43. ^ "Syria crisis: UN chief says Cold War is back". BBC News. 13 April 2018. Archived from the original on 13 April 2018. Retrieved 13 April 2018.
  44. ^ Trenin, Dmitir (14 April 2018). "The New Cold War Is Boiling Over in Syria". BBC News. Archived from the original on 15 April 2018. Retrieved 14 April 2018.
  45. ^ Bishara, Marwan (24 February 2022). "And so, Cold War II begins". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 1 March 2022.
  46. ^ Conant, Eve (12 September 2014). "Is the Cold War Back?". National Geographic. Archived from the original on 20 December 2014. Retrieved 19 December 2014.
  47. ^ Malyarenko, Tatyana; Wolff, Stefan (15 February 2018). "The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia, Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas". Post-Soviet Affairs. 34 (4): 191–212. doi:10.1080/1060586X.2018.1425083.
  48. ^ Kendall, Bridget (12 November 2014). "Rhetoric hardens as fears mount of new Cold War". BBC News. Archived from the original on 18 January 2015. Retrieved 20 December 2014.
  49. ^ Freedman, Lawrence (14 March 2018). "Putin's new Cold War". New Statesman. Archived from the original on 14 March 2018. Retrieved 15 March 2018.
  50. ^ "Robert Legvold on the New Cold War, Interview with Columbia University Professor and Leading Russia Scholar". Archived 1 January 2017 at the Wayback Machine 10 November 2015.
  51. ^ Robert Legvold, Return to Cold War. Cambridge: Polity, 2016
  52. ^ Bremmer, Ian (29 May 2014). "This Isn't A Cold War. And That's Not Necessarily Good". Time. Archived from the original on 13 January 2015. Retrieved 19 December 2014.
  53. ^ Walt, Stephen (12 March 2018). "I Knew the Cold War. This Is No Cold War". Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 19 March 2018. Retrieved 18 March 2018.
  54. ^ "U.S. and other powers kick Russia out of G8". CNN.com. 25 March 2014. Archived from the original on 8 August 2014. Retrieved 7 August 2014.
  55. ^ Johanna Granville, ""The Folly of Playing High-Stakes Poker with Putin: More to Lose than Gain over Ukraine". Archived 13 March 2015 at the Wayback Machine". 8 May 2014.
  56. ^ Osborne, Samuel (12 October 2016). "World entering era 'more dangerous than Cold War′ as Russian power grows, former MI6 boss warns". The Independent. Archived from the original on 28 October 2016. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  57. ^ a b Labott, Elise; Gaouette, Nicole (18 October 2016). "Russia, US move past Cold War to unpredictable confrontation". CNN. Archived from the original on 28 October 2016. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  58. ^ McKew, Molly K. (1 January 2017). "Putin's Real Long Game". Politico. Archived from the original on 14 January 2017. Retrieved 15 January 2017.
  59. ^ Heer, Jeet (4 January 2017). "A 'New Cold War' Against Russia Is a Terrible Idea". The New Republic. Archived from the original on 14 January 2017. Retrieved 15 January 2017.
  60. ^ Shapiro, Jeremy (11 January 2017). "Reordering Europe?". RealClearWorld. Archived from the original on 14 January 2017. Retrieved 15 January 2017.
  61. ^ "Pompeo attacks Russia and China in Berlin speech". BBC. 8 November 2019. Archived from the original on 8 November 2019. Retrieved 9 November 2019.
  62. ^ Greenway, H.D.S. (25 Feb 2022). "Welcome to Cold War II". Boston Globe. Retrieved 1 March 2022.
  63. ^ Smith, James F. (March 8, 2022). "Are we entering another Cold War? Probably not—but it could be even worse". Harvard Kennedy School. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
  64. ^ Gideon Rachman (6 June 2022). "Ukraine and the start of a second cold war". The Financial Times. The Financial Times Limited. Retrieved 31 July 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:NickMartin/SecondColdWarDrafting&oldid=1102744770"