Talk:Greek government-debt crisis

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Effects of bailoutEdit

Skartsis has several times added or restored the section header Effects of Applied programmes on the severity of the Debt Crisis and IMF's "apology", and the text "The 25% drop in Greece's GDP connected with the bailout programmes, had a catastrophic effect on the debt crisis itself". I disagree with this. In the first place, the section header is just too long--but that's trivial. More serious is that this introduces blatant neutral point of view, original research, and citation violations. In particular:

  • The use of scare quotes in a section header is not acceptable, nor is any attempt to use the section header to draw a conclusion.
  • The statement "The 25% drop in Greece's GDP connected with the bailout programmes, had a catastrophic effect on the debt crisis itself" absolutely requires a citation.
    • Without a citation, the causal connection of the GDP drop with the bailout is original research.
    • Unless a citation can be found to support the whole statement, there is a strong possibility of unwarranted synthesis between what's before the comma and what's after it.

Will other editors weight in, please? NewEnglandYankee (talk) 14:31, 28 July 2018 (UTC)

Hello. Let me present my case, since NewEnglandYankee has brought the issue here - after several times altering the original title and text. This little section, other than the absolutely obvious result of the 25% GDP drop on the Debt to GDP ratio (this is only math), is based on a 2013 IMF report about underestimating the effects of austerity on the country's GDP. I give some citations, there are tons available with a little internet search.
Each time my text was removed/altered, I tried a more "compromising" version. Now the title just reads "Effects of Applied programmes on the severity of the Debt Crisis", while some words in the text that might seem arbitrary, have been removed (I am doing one more revision, trying to make it as "neutral" as possible). I am trying to see where the "original research" / "personal point of view" is:
  • Is the GDP drop not connected with the austerity measures through the bailout programmes ? The IMF report, and all the relevant publications, some of which are cited, provide enough reference material. The IMF has admitted using a wrong coefficient in a formula calculating the resulting GDP drop.
  • Does the GDP drop not increase, mathematically, the Debt to GDP ratio - i.e, the level of the Debt crisis ?
An encyclopedia should include a complete coverage of such an important issue, and not be affected (I apologize if I offend anyone) by "taboo" issues, or personal preferences. I find it unbelievable, that the miscalculations in the Greek programmes, which, following Greece's own failures, have lead to such results, heated debates and analyses (and regularly brought up by the Greek president and other officials), do not merit the slightest mention in an extensive encyclopedia article about the Greek crisis. Skartsis (talk) 16:06, 30 July 2018 (UTC)
Skartsis, you're still not talking about my two very specific points. To your rhetorical questions:
  • "Is the GDP drop not connected with the austerity measures through the bailout programmes ?" The only answer is: "It is if the sources say it is."
  • "Does the GDP drop not increase, mathematically, the Debt to GDP ratio - i.e, the level of the Debt crisis ?" First: same answer. Second: you are asserting a strict causal connection between the "Effects of the applied programs" and the GDP drop. Nobody cares how "obvious" you think it is; it still requires a citation.
Furthermore, your text reads: "The GDP drop naturally had a very pronounced effect on the debt crisis itself." Wikipedia's Manual of Style, under "Words to Avoid" specifically says

Clearly, obviously, naturally, and of course all presume too much about the reader's knowledge and perspective and often amount to excess verbiage.

(emphasis added in both cases).
Finally, your assertion that the title now reads "Effects of Applied programmes on the severity of the Debt Crisis" is not true. The title reads "Effects of Applied programmes on the severity of the Debt Crisis and IMF's 'apology'", complete with scare quotes around "apology". This is still not remotely acceptable.
Please do not attempt to interpret my motives. I neither agree nor disagree with the point you're trying to make; I don't know enough. I am just pointing out Wikipedia policy. Please provide sources for your assertions, and please edit the section heading to remove scare quotes and remove implications of fault. If you would prefer to seek dispute resolution, such as a discussion at the dispute resolution noticeboard or the original research noticeboard, I'm perfectly amenable. NewEnglandYankee (talk) 17:34, 30 July 2018 (UTC)
P.S. For your reference, some relevant links:
  • Verifiability, which says (among other things): "All content must be verifiable. The burden to demonstrate verifiability lies with the editor who adds or restores material, and is satisfied by providing an inline citation to a reliable source that directly supports" and "A source 'directly supports' a given piece of material if that information is directly present in the source, so that using this source to support this material is not a violation of Wikipedia:No original research." (emphasis in original)
  • "Words to watch" in the Manual of Style, specifically "Expressions of doubt": "Misused punctuation can also have similar effects. Quotation marks, when not marking an actual quotation, may be interpreted as 'scare quotes', indicating that the writer is distancing herself or himself from the otherwise common interpretation of the quoted expression." That is obviously the case here. NewEnglandYankee (talk) 19:00, 30 July 2018 (UTC)
I don't want this discussion to go on forever. There are citations (as I said above), I enriched them and made them more clear (one shouldn't need a citation for the fact that when the denominator decreases, the value of a fraction increases). The quotes on IMF's apology were used because the apology was informal, I have no problem removing them, it actually makes the statement stronger. Hopefully, this is the last revision.Skartsis (talk) 19:46, 31 July 2018 (UTC)
In my personal opinion, the statement "solely due to the GDP drop (i.e., for the same Debt)" still could use a citation, and I think mentioning the apology in the heading borders on undue weight. However, I am no expert in this area, and the section is notably better than it had been. So I'm content to compromise on the current version. Thanks. NewEnglandYankee (talk) 04:40, 1 August 2018 (UTC)

Duration of crisisEdit

Okey, i question that crisis hasnt finished yet. 388,515,150,560 dollars is the current external debt of Greece according to bank of Greece. inflation is a little increased 1.0% according to Hellenic Statistic Authority. In 176.1% of GDP the debt of Greece[] unemployment rate is 18,6. Greek Daily Government Securities Rates and Quotations (For each benchmark, the daily net prices on a nominal reference value of € 100 are quoted and the corresponding returns on a percentage basis):bank of Greece rates markets. In order for a country to come out of international stocks it needs to issue a bond. Greece will therefore ask for a loan from individuals who will get interest to borrow money in the country. A country's interest rate is directly related to solvency. Simply put, if the economy is healthy, the country is rated favour from rating agencies, so private individuals buy the bond at a low interest rate, believing that they can not lose their money. So borrows a country. The bond holder may sell it or keep it until its maturity or provide it with a guarantee to get a loan itself. Greece is obviously still in a special situation. It has not borrowed from the markets for years. Greece is not in the markets (the borrowing costs and interest rates were high and out of the question) because it does not qualify. The Bailout deal (Third Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece) expired at 21th of August 2018 and that does not means tha crisis belongs in past because expiration. A deficit of € 2.1 billion in the January-October 2018, current account balance, was € 1.6 billion higher than in the same period of 2017, the Bank of Greece announced today.[1]. Some sectors are going better and some other worse, statistical, but by what criteria did you find that the crisis is over? (sorry for my bad English) — Preceding unsigned comment added by (talk) 23:40, 21 December 2018 (UTC)

Shall me compare statistics with previous years/months? Shall me explain something more? — Preceding unsigned comment added by (talk) 07:50, 22 December 2018 (UTC)

Let's not forget that EU troika (lenders) carried out the last financial third assessment in March (which was too late) while the fourth is still pending, which means that the Greek economy is supervised by International Monetary Fund, European Union and needs ESM. I'm waiting for yours response and questions. — Preceding unsigned comment added by (talk) 09:51, 22 December 2018 (UTC)

The article currently cites a Reuters story. "Greece has successfully exited its final, three-year bailout program, agreed in August 2015 to help it cope with the continued fallout from a debt crisis, the euro zone’s ESM rescue fund said on Monday."[2] In other words, this is a published, reliable secondary source directly the crisis is over. Do any of those sources you cite directly say the crisis continues, or are you just drawing conclusions from original research? —C.Fred (talk) 15:54, 22 December 2018 (UTC)

C.Fred That's right! "Greece has successfully exited its final, three-year bailout program" not from crisis. from when an economy can be considered that is in crisis only when are signed bailout programmes? And turkish economy is in crisis, same and Argentinian but there arent any bailout programme (memorandum). You should definite bailout programmes and an financial crisis. By the way, are statistics from Bank of Greece and Hellenic Statistic Authority unoriginal research? Statistical Greek economy is better but not out of crisis, as i said greek state cant borrow from international stocks/markets. If you want something more than statistics:[ Washington post, Greece's economic crisis is over only if you dont live there], [ Is the Greek financial crisis over at last?] that says «And after years of depression and then stagnation, the economy is growing again. But the crisis is not yet firmly in the rear-view mirror» and «Even euro-zone creditors have said they will return to the issue—but only in 15 years’ time. The return to normality will be slow.»

— Preceding unsigned comment added by (talk) 16:16, 22 December 2018 (UTC) 
A general argument: this is an encylopedia, not an area to express personal opinions. Greece's fundamentals are still weak, but not such, that would make it obvious that it requires a bailout. Growth 2-2.5% is not spectacular, but it means a lot for the economy. Unemployment is ten pct points lower from its high, and falling. The country has a budget surplus, not a deficit. And the Debt to GDP (according to all projections) is not increasing, but will slowly be falling. A 4.3% interest for the 10-year government bonds, is not what one would like, but it is not one that leads to need for bailout (the country could perfectly borrow with these rates, if inflation was up by 1 pct point), In other words, there is no comparison with the bailout times. I do agree that, with some definition, Greece is still in crisis, but with this definition several dozens of countries on the globe are also in crisis. Skartsis (talk) 13:01, 23 December 2018 (UTC)

Skartsis In my opinion, If Greece were going to the international stocks/markets, which would mean that rating agencies such as Moody's and Fitch would upgrade it, permanently and not temporarily, as last July (which would mean that borrowing rates would be slightly lower than, what last year and that's why we were again out of) then I would agree that the country no longer has a crisis, statistically because socially the crisis remains rooted.-- (talk) 14:31, 24 December 2018 (UTC)

All of you forgot that Greece is under capital controls. According to of the decision of the Minister of Finance (Government Gazette (B'4315 / 28.9.2018) of the ministerial decision "Limitations on issues of cash withdrawal and transfer of funds" from October 1, 2018, cash withdrawals abroad are allowed, with debit, credit and prepaid cards issued by banks operating in Greece up to the amount of € 5,000 or the equivalent in foreign currency per calendar month month, per Customer ID, per bank. the following eight (8) general categories of online transactions are not allowed, as online stores clear their card transactions in an account they hold with a foreign bank:

(a) Money transfers abroad.

(b) Purchase of works of art and auctions.

c) Transactions with betting companies and gambling.

d) Purchases in jewelers.

(e) General codes identifying a majority of transactions relating to pornographic material.

g) Personal services (escorts and appointments).

h) Payments to charitable organizations.

(i) Markets for food services.

Any business that denies payment by credit, debit and prepaid cards is penalized with severe fines and / or imprisonment, according to the provisions: • Articles 288 (1) and 452 of the Penal Code,

• Article 13a of Law 2251/1994 (A 191),

• Article 18 Law 146/1914 (A 21), and

• Article 19 of Law 4177/2013 (A 173) as applicable

Transfers of funds abroad are not allowed unless they fall under the exceptions they process on a daily basis

(a) the Special Sub-Committees of the Banks, as provided for in Decision No 26 / 15.11.2017 (Government Gazette B 4050) and

(b) the Bank Transaction Banking Committee, as defined in the Act on Legislative Content, as in force. Also, without the approval of the Bank's Special Sub-Committees or the Bank Transaction Adoption Committee:

• non-acceptance and execution of orders to transfer funds to banks abroad up to the amount of Euro 4,000 (4,000) per Customer ID and per calendar month from 1 July 2018 onwards up to a monthly limit in euro for the total of the banks operating in Greece and accepting deposits, which is defined and allocated by bank to the Banking Commission for Approval,

• transactions of legal persons or traders abroad in the course of their business activities, which do not exceed one hundred thousand (100.000) euro each, per day, per customer, upon presentation of the relevant invoices and other documents and supporting documents, which will be accompanied mandatory declaration by which the above persons declare that the documents presented above are genuine and have not been submitted to another bank. These transactions will be processed directly from the branch network of banks, credited to the counterparty's account, and will be calculated within the weekly limit set by the Bank Transaction Banking Commission for each bank,

• Transactions of natural persons imposed on serious health grounds or for exceptional social reasons, involving the execution of payments abroad, or cash withdrawals, upon presentation of the necessary supporting documents to the bank, proving the fulfillment of the relevant conditions and with a monthly limit of two thousand (€ 2,000) per person (with one or more transactions) to all banks operating in Greece. The aforementioned requests will be accompanied by a responsible declaration, in which the aforementioned natural persons declare that the above documents are genuine and have not been submitted to another bank.

The above permitted transactions will be processed directly from the branch network of the banks.

in a summary, before that the withdrawal was until 492 euros monthly. — Preceding unsigned comment added by (talk) 18:58, 25 December 2018 (UTC)

I made some changes. Does anyone disagree? (talk) 14:46, 7 January 2019 (UTC)

I do not think crisis started in late 2009 as other events had preceded it. 20.2.2008 Bank of Greece Report on Monetary Policy. Recommendations for fiscal consolidation, contribution of social partners to achieve price stability and to improve international competitiveness. As well as decisive structural reforms in a wide range of sectors of the economy. 22.4.2008 Report of the Governor of Bank of Greece. In its limits the pattern of development. It is necessary to continue the reforms to improve productivity and the structural economic economy. 15.9.2008 Lehman Brothers colapsed. Merrill Lynch's acquisition agreement with Bank of America for 50 billion lore. One day later, a rescue plan was announced and AIG.M22.9.2008 Visit of Prime Minister K. Karamanlis and the Minister of Economy and Finance G. Alogoskoufis to the Bank of Greece. 30.9.2008 For the second time within a month, the Governor of Bank of Greece meets the Chief of Staff Opposition Officer G. Papandreou. 3.10.2008 Greece is the second eurozone country that guarantee the deposits in commercial banks. 8.10.2008 Interim Report of the Bank of Greece on Monetary Policy 2008: "The economy presents serious structural weaknesses and chronic imbalances that have not been adequately addressed for a long period. As much as the international conjuncture deteriorates, macroeconomic imbalances and structural problems will and their treatment will become more difficult ". 9.10.2008 A coordinated interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Fed and five other central banks pedestrians. ECB cuts interest rates by 50 basis points. 25.11.2008 The Law on Strengthening the Liquidity of the Economy is being voted on in order to deal with the consequences of international financial crisis. 14.01.2009 Standard & Poor's rating agency reduces Greece's credit rating from Grade A to A-, citing the worsening of the country's public finances, in an environment of international economic growth. 15.01.2009 Yield of 10-year Greek bonds is at 5.43% as Ireland advances the nationalization of the Anglo Irish bank. 16.2.2009 Bank of Greece Report on Monetary Policy 2008-2009. The widening of there is a higher future tax burden on taxpayers. The need for a multiannual plan, which will it takes the necessary reforms that have not been implemented over the past 15 years, with immediate priority fiscal consolidation and the implementation of a grid of reforms in the public sector and the beings, services and productive factors. 3.3.2009 Ioannis M. Papadakis is sworn in as Deputy Governor of the Bank of Greece. 15.4.2009 Report by the Governor of the Bank of Greece: "First of all, we must reject the impasse the past, over consumption, massive imports, persistent deficits, external and external, and debts. 27 April 2009 By decision of EU's ECOFIN Council, Greece officially enters into the excessive deficit procedure. 23.6.2009 Bank of Greece makes a Report on Financial Stability. 28.7.2009 Statistical Junction - July Economic Bulletin: The Central Government Deficit in semester exceeds the total deficit projected for the whole of 2008, reaching 7.2% of GDP (17.9% billion). 6 August 2009 In a report on Greece (IMF), IMF warns that structural reforms and deficit reduction measures "can no longer be postponed" because, owing to the high debt and the erosion of its competitiveness, Greek economy vulnerable to global crisis ". 8.9.2009 The Governor of Bank of Greece informs the President of PASOK G. Papandreou (that became PM after elections of 4th of October 2009) and Papakonstantinou (Minister of Economics and Financial Affairs from 4/10) and L. Katseli on the state of economy. In October 2008, the euro area countries agreed to coordinated action to stabilize the banking system. Paris Declaration, signed by the leaders of the countries of euro on 12 October 2008 and was subsequently adopted by European Council on 15-16 October provided for a coordinated approach measures to restore confidence and improve conditions financing in the economy. These measures included provision State guarantees for the issuance of bank bonds and the recapitalization of banks. In December 2008, the European Council adopted the European Economic Recovery, whose purpose was to support the economic activity by stimulating aggregate demand and stepping up efforts to implement structural reforms. Αlso, in December 2008, the ECOFIN Council set the general the proposal for a Directive to increase the ceiling Deposit Guarantee Schemes from € 20,000 to € 50,000 in June 2009 and its harmonization at 100,000 euros as of 31.12.2011, so as to confidence in the banking sector. In the same month, ECOFIN an increase in total funding through the medium- financial support for the balance of payments for Member States other than of the euro area, from € 12 billion to € 25 billion. Three EU Member States (Hungary, Latvia and Romania) made use of this mechanism two years 2008-2009 (see Box 2.1 below). Interventions to tackle the financial crisis in the Euro-level was intensified in 2009 and concrete proposals were tabled the strengthening of the financial stability framework. These proposals were based on the report of the Group chaired by Jacques de Larosière, 1 which was published in February 2009 and contained recommendations for one new institutional oversight framework in the EU. Following these recommendations. European Commission has tabled legislative proposals to the EU Council and European Parliament, which concerned the establishment of (a) the European Parliament Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), which is responsible for the exercise of the and (b) European System of Financial ESFS, which would be responsible for micro-prudence and would consist of a network comprising three Euro- Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) and their respective competent national supervisory. In global level, the Summit of the "Group" was the milestone 20 "(G20) in London in April 2009. The Summit decided on the establishment of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) as its successor Financial Stability Forum, with expanded composition and responsibilities with regard to the preservation of financial stability. Group Summit kicked off a large reform of the supervisory framework, which they undertook to you were the global standard setting bodies and European Commission. (talk) 15:37, 7 January 2019 (UTC)

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