Opinion polling for the 2016 Serbian parliamentary election

In the run up to the 2016 parliamentary elections in the Serbia, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Serbia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls range from the previous parliamentary election, held on 16 March 2014, to the 2016 election, held on 24 April 2016. Most opinion polls predicted that the SNS was going to fare around 50%, while their partners in the ruling coalition SPS were stable at above 10%. Serbian Radical Party, strengthened by the return of their leader Vojislav Šešelj from the Hague Tribunal, seemed the only party certain to make it to the Parliament with the support of 6–8% polled, while all other major lists undulated around the 5% threshold.

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Date	Polling Firm	SNS et al.	SPS JS	DS	SRS	Dveri	DSS	SDS	LDP	DJB	Others	Lead
24 Apr 2016	2016 Election result	48.4	10.9	6.0	8.1	5.0		5.0 (+LSV)		6.0	10.6	37.5
21 Apr	CeSid	54.0	11.0	5.0	7.0	5.0		6.0 (+LSV)		6.0	6	43.0
20 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.9	12.3	5.5	7.9	5.2		5.1 (+LSV)		4.6	8.5	38.6
6–13 Apr	Ninamedia	47.2	13.3	5.1	9.3	6.3		5.6 (+LSV)		4.9	8.3	33.9
7–14 Apr	NSPM	44.8	12.7	7.5	9.8	6.3		6.9 (+LSV)		4.2	7.8	32.1
19 Apr	ProPozitiv	50.6	11.4	4.9	8.2	5.6		6.9 (+LSV)		5.3	7.1	39.2
mid–Apr	FPN	27.2	11.6	5.6	17.5	8.1		12.0 (+LSV)		8.8	9.2	9.7
3–10 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.9	12.3	5.7	7.8	5.1		5.0 (+LSV)		4.5	8.7	38.3
31 Mar	ProPozitiv	52.4	12.3	4.6	6.5	7.4		7.3 (+LSV)		5.7	3.8	40.1
28–31 Mar	CeSID	53.0	13.0	5.0	7.0	8.0		6.0 (+LSV)		5.0	3	40
27 Mar	Faktor Plus	52.6	11.9	6.1	6.1	5.5		5.0 (+LSV)		3.3	9.5	40.7
3 Mar	Faktor Plus	49.4	12.7	6.4	6.0	5.7		5.0 (+LSV)		3	11.8	36.7
28 Jan–7 Feb	NSPM	44.9	11.8	10.8	7.0	6.8		8.5 (+LSV)		3.4	6.8	33.1
3 Feb	Faktor Plus	49.5	12.0	6.8	6.0	5.6		5.2 (+LSV)		2.3	12.6	37.5
2016
20–27 Dec	Ninamedia Research	47.7	11.1	6.0	5.9	4.0	2.4	4.8		–	18.1	36.6
15–25 Dec	Faktor Plus	51.4	9.5	6.5	6.0	5.2		4.1		2.2	15.1	41.9
c. 24 Dec	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	52.0	11.0	5.9	6.2	5.0	–	6.9		–	13	41.0
mid–Dec	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	52	10	5	3	5	2	4	2	2	15	42
25 Nov–3 Dec	NSPM	42.1	10.7	11.1	5.3	4.9	3.5	3.0	2.8	2.8	13.8	31.0
24–30 Nov	Faktor Plus	51.6	8.7	6.5	6.2	3.1	2.8	2.9	1.3	2.0	14.9	42.9
24–27 Nov	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	52	10	5	5	4	3	7		–	14	42
26–30 Oct	Faktor Plus	51.5	8.7	6.0	6.6	3.3	2.9	2.8	1.2	2.0	15	42.8
10–18 Oct	NSPM	45.8	10.4	9.4	5.8	4.5	3.9	3.2	2.5	1.6	12.9	35.4
c. 12 Oct	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	50	10	5–6	5–6	–	–	–	–	–	28–30	40
1–7 Oct	Ninamedia Research	48.1	14.3 (+PUPS)	5.8	6.2	3.2	3.0	3.3	2.6	2.2	11.3	33.8
25 Sep–4 Oct	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	54	9	5	6	3	4	2	3	2	12	45
25–30 Sep	Faktor Plus	51.5	8.8	7.0	6.0	3.1	3.0	3.0	1.2	1.5	14.9	42.7
5–14 Sep	NSPM	39.1	11.6	11.1	5.9	4.6	4.3	2.8	3.3	2.3	15	27.5
late Aug–early Sep	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	48	10	6	4	3	3	4	5	3	14	38
26–30 Aug	Faktor Plus	51.0	9.0	7.0	5.8	2.9	2.8	3.1	1.2	1.0	16.2	42.0
24–30 Jul	Faktor Plus	50.7	9.2	7.1	5.8	2.8	2.5	3.0	1.2	1.0	16.7	41.5
18–26 Jun	NSPM	45.0	10.7	10.9	3.5	4.5	4.0	3.4	–	0.8	17.2	34.1
18–25 Jun	Faktor Plus	50.5	9.3	7.0	6.4	2.9	2.2	3.2	1.2	1.0	16.3	41.2
21–27 May	Faktor Plus	50.6	9.5	7.0	6.1	3.0	2.0	3.1	1.3	1.2	16.2	41.1
late May	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	50.0	12.0 (+PUPS)	6.1	6.8	6.6		4.9	2.5	1.4	9.7	38.0
25–29 Apr	Faktor Plus	52.1	9.5	8.3	6.4	–	–	4.1	–	–	19.6	42.6
17–24 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.8	10.1	7.2	6.0	3.5	1.9	3.3	1.3	1.4	14.5	40.7
10–22 Apr	NSPM	42.4	10.7	12.5	6.1	4.2	4.8	2.4	2.4	0.8	13.7	29.9
30 Mar–3 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.6	10.8	7.1	4.8	3.7	2.0	3.4	1.5	1.6	14.5	39.8
early Mar	Faktor Plus	50.1	10.2	7.1	4.6	3.9	1.8	3.2	1.7	1.6	15.8	39.9
24–30 Jan	TNS Medium Gallup	48.7	6.4	3.2	3.4	2.2	0.8	3.6	1.6	–	30.1	42.3
27 Dec–5 Jan	NSPM	47.9	12.0	10.8	3.3	3.4	4.4	3.9	2.7	0.7	10.9	35.9
2015
16–19 Dec	Faktor Plus	51.1	10.8	6.6	4.6	3.9	1.1	4.5	1.0	–	16.4	40.3
late Nov	Faktor Plus	51.0	10.5	6.5	4.6	3.8	–	4.5	–	–	19.1	40.5
late Nov	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	50	10	6	3	5	3	3	3	3	14	40
10–15 Oct	NSPM	46.7	13.3	6.5	3.7	3.1	3.4	5.9	3.7	–	13.7	33.4
8–10 Oct	Faktor Plus	50.5	10.8	6.1	3.0	2.6	–	4.8	–	–	22.2	39.7
24 Sep–1 Oct	Ninamedia Research	49.6	10.9	5.9	3.4	5.1	4.1	4.5	3.1	2.2	11.2	38.7
1–6 Sep	Faktor Plus	50.5	11.0	5.9	3.1	2.0	–	4.8	–	–	22.7	39.5
9–13 Aug	Faktor Plus	50.6	11.0	5.2	3.9	–	–	4.8	–	–	24.5	39.6
26 Jun–2 Jul	Faktor Plus	50.5	10.5	6.1	4.3	–	–	5.6	–	–	23	40.0
27–29 May	Faktor Plus	50.1	12.8	6.2	–	–	–	5.8	–	–	25.1	37.3
22–29 May	Danas	55	13 (+PUPS)	5	3	4	4	5	5	2	4	42
mid–Apr	Faktor Plus	51.1	12.5	6.3	–	–	3.9	5.9	–	–	20.3	38.6
16 Mar 2014	2014 Election result	48.4	13.5 (+PUPS)	6.0	2.0	3.6	4.2	5.7	3.4	2.1	11.1	34.9

Notes

• SNS–PUPS–SDPS–PS 51
• SPS–JS 12
• SDS–LDP 8
• Dveri–DSS 6
• LSV–LS–DJB 6
• DS–NOVA 5
• SRS 4

Dveri–DSS coalition 7.8. (1–7 Oct 2015)

If the parties were to run in coalition: (24 Sep–4 Oct 2015)

• SNS–PUPS–SDPS–NS–SPO–SNP–PS 51
• SPS–JS 14
• Dveri–DSS 8
• DS–NOVA–DJB 7
• SDS–LDP 7
• SRS 7

Ipsos Strategic Marketing poll for International Republican Institute (IRI).

Between 13–15 if in coalition with JS and PUPS. (26–30 Aug 2015)

If in coalition: (24–30 Jul 2015)

• SPS–JS–PUPS about 13.
• Dveri–DSS slightly more than 5.

Based on 800 respondents aged 18–25 years.

Percentages would be higher if undecided voters were excluded.

• SPS–JS–PUPS coalition 8.5. (24–30 Jan 2015)