Opinion polling for the 2013 Philippine Senate election

Opinion polling (locally known as "surveys") for the 2013 Philippine Senate election is carried out by two major polling firms: Social Weather Stations (SWS), and Pulse Asia, with a handful of minor polling firms. A typical poll asks a voter to name twelve persons one would vote for in the senate election. The SWS and Pulse Asia's surveys are usually national in scope, while other polling firms usually restrict their samples within Metro Manila.

Candidates edit

There two major coalitions in this election: Team PNoy (known as the LP-Akbayan-NPC-NP-LDP Coalition until January 27, 2013), and the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). The two coalitions used to share three common candidates, until UNA dropped them. A third coalition, the Makabayang Koalisyon ng Mamamayan (Makabayan; Patriotic Coalition of the People) share four candidates from Team PNoy. A further two more parties put up ticket of three candidates each, two parties had a ticket made up of one candidate each, and three candidates are independents that are not a part of any ticket.

These are aside from the parties that put up candidates, and may belong to any coalition. In the tables below, the colors refer to the parties, unless otherwise stated in the seat totals sections.

  • Key: Green tick: regular candidate, yellow tick: guest candidate.
Candidates Alliances
AKP BP DPP Maka-
bayan
SJS Team PNoy UNA None
Samson Alcantara  
Sonny Angara  
Bam Aquino  
Greco Belgica  
Nancy Binay  
Teodoro Casiño  
Alan Peter Cayetano    
Tingting Cojuangco  
Rizalito David  
John Carlos de los Reyes  
JV Ejercito  
Jack Enrile  
Francis Escudero    
Baldomero Falcone  
Richard J. Gordon  
Edward Hagedorn  
Gregorio Honasan  
Risa Hontiveros  
Loren Legarda    
Marwil Llasos  
Ernesto Maceda  
Jamby Madrigal    
Mitos Magsaysay  
Ramon Magsaysay Jr.  
Ramon Montaño  
Ricardo Penson  
Aquilino Pimentel III    
Grace Poe    
Christian Señeres  
Antonio Trillanes  
Eddie Villanueva  
Cynthia Villar    
Juan Miguel Zubiri  
Totals (regulars+guests) 3 1 3 1+7 1 9+3 9 3

Note:

  • Francis Escudero, Loren Legarda and Grace Poe were included as guest candidates of UNA until they were dropped from the ticket on February 21. Polls that are taken before that date includes the three as part of the UNA ticket in the tables below; those that are after on or after the date excludes them from the UNA tallies.

Voting preferences per candidate edit

Top 12 in the survey
Outside the top 12 but within the margin of error

Key dates:

  • Period of submission of certificates of candidacies: October 1 to 5, 2012
  • Start of campaign period for Senate candidates: February 12, 2013
  • Start of campaign period for local candidates: March 29, 2013 (Due to that date being a Good Friday, campaigning officially starts on March 30.)
  • News blackout on election surveys for the Senate election: April 28–May 12, 2013
  • Election day: May 13, 2013

Until filing of certificates of candidacy edit

Pollster Pulse Asia[1] Pulse Asia[2] Pulse Asia[3] SWS[4] The Center[5] Pulse Asia[6]
Date(s) administered November 10–23, 2011 February 26–March 9, 2012 May 20–26, 2012 August 24–27, 2012 August 24–30, 2012 August 31–September 7, 2012
Sample size 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Margin of error ±3.0% ±3.0% ±3.0% ±3.0% ±3.0% ±3.0%
Candidates 1    Escudero (Ind.), 65.8%    Legarda (NPC), 58.5%    Escudero (Ind.), 65.1%    Escudero (Ind.), 62%    Escudero (Ind.), 66%    Legarda (NPC), 67.3%
2    Legarda (NPC), 58.9%    Escudero (Ind.), 52.7%    Legarda (NPC), 63.6%    Legarda (NPC), 57%    Legarda (NPC), 59.3%    Escudero (Ind.), 61.2%
3    Roxas (LP), 43.0%    Roxas (LP), 41.8%    Cayetano (NP), 50.2%    Cayetano (NP), 49%    Cayetano (NP), 54%    Cayetano (NP), 49.9%
4    Cayetano (NP), 40.3%    Cayetano (NP), 41.6%    Enrile (NPC), 49.1%    Enrile (NPC), 48%

   Pimentel (PDP), 46.6%
   Enrile (NPC), 46.6%

   Ejercito (PMP), 49.9%
5    de Castro (Ind.), 34.8%    Enrile (NPC), 38.2%    Roxas (LP), 47.5%    Honasan (Ind.), 40%    Enrile (NPC), 47.4%
6    Ejercito (PMP), 30.4%    de Castro (Ind.), 34.6%    Honasan (Ind.), 39.5%    Angara (LDP), 40%    Honasan (Ind.), 43%    Trillanes (NP), 41.2%
7    Honasan (Ind.), 29.6%    Trillanes (Ind.), 33.7%    Pimentel (PDP), 38.9%    Trillanes (NP), 40%    K. Aquino (Ind.), 39.8%    Honasan (Ind.), 40.6%
8    Enrile (NPC), 29.5%    Honasan (Ind.), 32.1%    Ejercito (PMP), 36.3%    Ejercito (PMP), 38%    Ejercito (PMP), 37.3%    Pimentel (PDP), 39.2%
9    Pimentel (PDP), 29.4%    Ejercito (PMP), 31.3%    Trillanes (Ind.), 34.8%    Pimentel (PDP), 38%    Villar (NP), 35%    Zubiri (PMP), 37.4%
10    de Lima (Ind.), 29.4%    Pimentel (PDP), 29.0%    Zubiri (PMP), 30.4%    Zubiri (PMP), 34%    Gordon (B-VNP), 30.2%
   Zubiri (PMP), 30.2%
   Angara (LDP), 35.9%
11    Trillanes (Ind.), 28.7%    Failon (Ind.), 26.9%    Gordon (B-VNP), 29.6%
   Villar (NP), 32.7%    Villar (NP), 34%
12    Zubiri (Ind.), 26.9%    de Lima (Ind.), 26.6%    Angara (LDP), 28.9%    Gordon (B-VNP), 28%

   Biazon (LP), 27%
   Angara (LDP), 27%

   Binay (PDP), 27.4%
13    Angara (LDP), 24.3%    Biazon (LP), 22.5%    Binay (PDP), 27.5%    de Lima (Ind.), 27%    Gordon (B-VNP), 26.2%
14    Madrigal (Ind.), 24.0%    Zubiri (Ind.), 22.4%    Villar (NP), 25.1%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 24%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 23%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 25.4%
15    Gordon (B-VNP), 22.1%
   Madrigal (Ind.), 21.8%    Madrigal (Ind.), 23.4%    Biazon (LP), 23%

   de Venecia (PDP), 20.2%
   Santos-Recto (LP), 20.2%
   M. Magsaysay (PDP), 20.2%

   Madrigal (Ind.), 23.2%
None/refused/undecided 5.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3% 6.0%

Until the campaign period for the Senate election edit

Pollster StratPOLLS[7] Pulse Asia[8] SWS[9] The Center[10] SWS/Business World[11] Pulse Asia[12]
Date(s) administered October 8–17, 2012 November 23–29, 2012 November 29–December 3, 2012 January 9–17, 2013 January 17–19, 2013 January 19–30, 2013
Sample size 300 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,800
Margin of error <3%, >4% ±3.0% ±3.0% ±3.0% ±2.0%
Candidates 1    Legarda (NPC), 64%    Escudero (Ind.), 74.1%    Legarda (NPC), 68%    Legarda (NPC)    Legarda (NPC), 65%    Legarda (NPC), 58.6%
2    Escudero (Ind.), 63%    Legarda (NPC), 69.3%    Escudero (Ind.), 61%    Escudero (Ind.)    Escudero (Ind.), 62%    Escudero (Ind.), 54.3%
3    Cayetano (NP), 58%    Cayetano (NP), 60.1%    Cayetano (NP), 58%    Cayetano (NP)    Cayetano (NP), 60%    Cayetano (NP), 48.9%
4    Pimentel (PDP), 45%    Ejercito (UNA), 57.0%    Villar (NP), 51%    Ejercito (UNA)    Ejercito (UNA), 53%    Binay (UNA), 43.6%
5    Villar (NP), 42%    Enrile (NPC), 53.2%    Ejercito (UNA), 49%    Pimentel (PDP)

   Honasan (UNA), 48%
   Pimentel (PDP), 48%

   Ejercito (UNA), 43.5%
6    Angara (LDP), 40%    Villar (NP), 52.2%

   Pimentel (PDP), 46%
   Enrile (NPC), 46%

   Villar (NP)    Trillanes (NP), 41.1%
7    Ejercito (UNA), 37%    Pimentel (PDP), 50.2%    Honasan (UNA)    Zubiri (UNA), 47%    Pimentel (PDP), 40.7%
8    Gordon (UNA), 35%    Honasan (UNA), 44.9%    Honasan (UNA), 43%    Zubiri (UNA)

   Villar (NP), 46%
   Enrile (NPC), 46%

   Enrile (NPC), 40.4%
9    Zubiri (UNA), 33%    Trillanes (NP), 43.2%

   Binay (UNA), 41%
   Zubiri (UNA), 41%

   Enrile (NPC)    Villar (NP), 39.1%
10

   Enrile (NPC), 29%
   Honasan (UNA), 29%

   Binay (UNA), 41.3%    Binay (UNA)

   Trillanes (NP), 45%
   Poe (Ind.), 45%

   Zubiri (UNA), 37.6%
11    Angara (LDP), 40.8%    Trillanes (NP), 40%    Trillanes (NP)    Angara (LDP), 37.1%
12    Madrigal (LP), 28%    Zubiri (UNA), 40.5%    Gordon (UNA), 37%    Poe (Ind.)    Binay (UNA), 43%    Honasan (UNA), 36.8%
13    Trillanes (NP), 27%    Madrigal (LP), 34.4%    Angara (LDP), 35%    Angara (LDP), 39%    Aquino (LP), 31.4%
14    Hagedorn (Ind.), 25%    Gordon (UNA), 29.7%    Madrigal (LP), 30%    Gordon (UNA), 36%    Poe (Ind.), 30.9%
15    Poe (Ind.), 23%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 28.8%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 29%    Aquino (LP), 34%    Gordon (UNA), 30.0%
16    Aquino (LP), 27.9%    Maceda (UNA), 25%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 33%    Madrigal (LP), 26.8%
17    Poe (Ind.), 24.7%    Aquino (LP), 24%    Madrigal (LP), 28%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 23.8%
18    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 21.2%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 21%

   Hontiveros (Akbayan), 25%
   Maceda (UNA), 25%

   Hontiveros (Akbayan), 17.5%
19    Maceda (UNA), 16.7%    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 14%    Maceda (UNA), 15.5%
20    Cojuangco (UNA), 14.2%    Poe (Ind.), 13%    Cojuangco (UNA), 14%    Cojuangco (UNA), 11.8%
21    Hagedorn (Ind.), 8.8%    Hagedorn (Ind.), 11%

   M. Magsaysay (UNA), 13%
   Hagedorn (Ind.), 13%

   M. Magsaysay (UNA), 9.9%
22    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 7.7%

   Cojuangco (UNA), 10%
   Casiño (Makabayan), 10%

   Hagedorn (Ind.), 9.3%
23    Casiño (Makabayan), 5.3%    Villanueva (BP), 12%    Villanueva (BP), 9.2%
24 Alcantara (SJS), 4.0%    David (AKP), 7%    Casiño (Makabayan), 11%    Casiño (Makabayan), 5.7%
25    Montaño (Ind.), 3.3%

Alcantara (SJS), 4.0%
   Montaño (Ind.), 3.3%

   Montaño (Ind.), 6%
   David (AKP), 6%
Alcantara (SJS), 6%

Alcantara (SJS), 3.8%
26    David (AKP), 2.8%

   David (AKP), 3.6%
   Montaño (Ind.), 3.6%

27    de los Reyes (AKP), 2.7%    de los Reyes (AKP), 5%
28    Falcone (DPP), 1.9%    Belgica (DPP), 4%    de los Reyes (AKP), 5%    de los Reyes (AKP), 2.8%
29    Penson (Ind.), 1.8%

   Penson (Ind.), 3%
   Falcone (DPP), 3%

   Belgica (DPP), 3%
   Penson (Ind.), 3%
   Falcone (DPP), 3%
   Señeres (DPP), 3%

   Señeres (DPP), 1.3%
30    Belgica (DPP), 0.7%    Penson (Ind.), 1.2%
31    Llasos (AKP), 0.7%

   Llasos (AKP), 2%
   Señeres (DPP), 2%

   Belgica (DPP), 0.8%
32    Señeres (DPP), 0.5%

   Falcone (DPP), 0.5%
   Llasos (AKP), 0.5%

33    Llasos (AKP), 2%
None
Refused
Undecided
NA 4.2% 1% 2% 8.6%

Until the campaign period for local elections edit

Pollster SWS/BW[13] Pulse Asia[14] StratPOLLS[15] SWS/BW[16] Pulse Asia[17]
Date(s) administered February 15–17, 2013 February 24–28, 2013 March 8–13, 2013 March 15–17, 2013 March 16–20, 2013
Sample size 1,200 1,800 1,200 1,200 1,800
Margin of error ±3% ±2% ±3.5% ±3% ±2%
Candidates 1    Legarda (NPC), 64%    Legarda (NPC), 56.7%    Legarda (NPC), 75.2%    Legarda (NPC), 59%    Legarda (NPC), 55.3%
2    Escudero (Ind.), 62%    Escudero (Ind.), 54.9%    Escudero (Ind.), 63.2%    Cayetano (NP), 57%    Escudero (Ind.), 51.5%
3    Cayetano (NP), 58%    Cayetano (NP), 52.8%    Poe (Ind.), 63.0%

   Ejercito (UNA), 48%
   Escudero (Ind.), 48%

   Cayetano (NP), 48.7%
4    Villar (NP), 53%    Villar (NP), 44.0%    Cayetano (NP), 62.1%    Poe (Ind.), 42.1%
5

   Poe (Ind.), 48%
   Pimentel (PDP), 48%

   Ejercito (UNA), 43.8%    Binay (UNA), 59.7%

   Binay (UNA), 47%
   Villar (NP), 47%
   Pimentel (PDP), 47%

   Pimentel (PDP), 41.7%
6    Aquino (LP), 43.2%    Ejercito (UNA), 59.0%    Villar (NP), 40.8%
7    Binay (UNA), 47%    Binay (UNA), 42.5%

   Trillanes (NP), 54.7%
   Enrile (NPC), 54.7%

   Binay (UNA), 39.6%
8    Trillanes (NP), 46%    Poe (Ind.), 42.1%    Trillanes (NP), 44%

   Aquino (LP), 38.6%
   Ejercito (UNA), 38.6%

9

   Ejercito (UNA), 42%
   Aquino (LP), 42%

   Pimentel (PDP), 40.1%    Angara (LDP), 54.0%    Honasan (UNA), 43%
10    Honasan (UNA), 37.9%    Zubiri (UNA), 52.1%    Aquino (LP), 42%    Trillanes (NP), 37.7%
11

   Angara (LDP), 39%
   Zubiri (UNA), 39%

   Enrile (NPC), 36.6%    Aquino (LP), 50.0%    Poe (Ind.), 40%    Honasan (UNA), 36.8%
12    Trillanes (NP), 36.1%    Pimentel (PDP), 49.4%    Angara (LDP), 39%    Angara (LDP), 34.6%
13    Enrile (NPC), 38%    Angara (LDP), 35.1%    Villar (NP), 49.1%

   Enrile (NPC), 37%
   R. Magsaysay (LP), 37%

   Zubiri (UNA), 32.5%
14    Madrigal (LP), 36%    Zubiri (UNA), 33.2%    Honasan (UNA), 48.1%    Enrile (NPC), 32.4%
15    Honasan (UNA), 34%    Gordon (UNA), 32.2%    Gordon (UNA), 38.7%    Zubiri (UNA), 35%    Gordon (UNA), 30.7%
16    R. Magsaysay (LP), 32%    Madrigal (LP), 30.6%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 37.7%

   Madrigal (LP), 33%
   Gordon (UNA), 33%

   R. Magsaysay (LP), 28.2%
17    Gordon (UNA), 31%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 27.0%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 34.7%    Madrigal (LP), 27.3%
18    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 25%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 24.1%    Madrigal (LP), 29.8%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 29%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 24.3%
19    Maceda (UNA), 15%    Maceda (UNA), 16.3%    Maceda (UNA), 23.6%    Maceda (UNA), 18%    Maceda (UNA), 14.1%
20

   Cojuangco (UNA), 13%
   Villanueva (BP), 13%
   M. Magsaysay (UNA), 13%

   M. Magsaysay (UNA), 14.5%    Cojuangco (UNA), 23.4%

   Cojuangco (UNA), 14%
   M. Magsaysay (UNA), 14%

   M. Magsaysay (UNA), 12.7%
21    Cojuangco (UNA), 14.4%    Villanueva (BP), 21.0%

   Cojuangco (UNA), 12.7%
   Hagedorn (Ind.), 12.7%

22    Hagedorn (Ind.), 13.3%    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 20.8%    Villanueva (BP), 13%
23    Hagedorn (Ind.), 10%    Villanueva (BP), 12.7%
   Hagedorn (Ind.), 16.3%    Hagedorn (Ind.), 11%    Villanueva (BP), 10.2%
24    Casiño (Makabayan), 9%    Casiño (Makabayan), 7.7%    de los Reyes (AKP), 12.3%    Casiño (Makabayan), 7%    Casiño (Makabayan), 7.2%
25    David (AKP), 5%    de los Reyes (AKP), 4.2%    Casiño (Makabayan), 8.7%

   Llasos (AKP), 4%
Alcantara (SJS), 4%
   Penson (Ind.), 4%
   Montaño (Ind.), 4%
   Falcone (DPP), 4%

   de los Reyes (AKP), 3.0%
26

   Montaño (Ind.), 4%
   de los Reyes (AKP), 4%

   Montaño (Ind.), 4.0%    Montaño (Ind.), 8.5%    Montaño (Ind.), 2.9%
27 Alcantara (SJS), 3.4%    Belgica (DPP), 6.2% Alcantara (SJS), 2.6%
28

   Penson (Ind.), 3%
Alcantara (SJS), 3%
   Belgica (DPP), 3%

   Belgica (DPP), 3.2%    David (AKP), 5.9%    David (AKP), 2.3%
29    David (AKP), 2.8%    Penson (Ind.), 5.4%

   Belgica (DPP), 2.0%
   Falcone (DPP), 2.0%    Penson (Ind.), 2.0%

30    Falcone (DPP), 2.5%    Llasos (AKP), 5.1%

   David (AKP), 3%
   Señeres (DPP), 3%
   de los Reyes (AKP), 3%

31

   Señeres (DPP), 2%
   Falcone (DPP), 2%
   Llasos (AKP), 2%

   Penson (Ind.), 2.4% Alcantara (SJS), 4.6%
32    Señeres (DPP), 2.3%    Señeres (DPP), 4.0%    Llasos (AKP), 1.7%
33    Llasos (AKP), 1.6%    Falcone (DPP), 3.6%
   Belgica (DPP), 2%    Señeres (DPP), 1.0%
None
Refused
Undecided
2% undecided
4% invalid markings
5.5% none/refused/don't know
2.6% invalid votes
2% undecided
5% invalid markings
7.7% none/refused/don't know
5.2% invalid votes

Until election day edit

Pollster SWS[18] Pulse Asia[19] SWS[20] Pulse Asia[21]
Date(s) administered April 13–15, 2013 April 20–22, 2013 May 2–3, 2013 May 10–11, 2013
Sample size 1,800 1,800 2,400 1,800
Margin of error ±2% ±2% ±2% ±2%
Candidates 1    Legarda (NPC), 59%    Legarda (NPC), 51.5%    Legarda (NPC), 57%    Legarda (NPC), 55.8%
2    Cayetano (NP), 52%    Escudero (Ind.), 48.3%    Cayetano (NP), 50%    Escudero (Ind.), 52.7%
3

   Binay (UNA), 49%
   Villar (NP), 49%

   Poe (Ind.), 42.4%

   Binay (UNA), 48%
   Escudero (Ind.), 48%

   Cayetano (NP), 51.1%
4    Cayetano (NP), 40.0%    Poe (Ind.), 49.9%
5    Escudero (Ind.), 47%    Villar (NP), 37.7%    Poe (Ind.), 45%    Binay (UNA), 46.9%
6    Aquino (LP), 44%    Trillanes (NP), 35.8%

   Ejercito (UNA), 44%
   Villar (NP), 44%

   Villar (NP), 46.6%
7

   Pimentel (PDP), 43%
   Ejercito (UNA), 43%

   Aquino (LP), 35.7%    Aquino (LP), 45.9%
8    Ejercito (UNA), 34.7%    Pimentel (PDP), 43%    Angara (LDP), 42.4%
9    Angara (LDP), 42%    Binay (UNA), 34.6%    Aquino (LP), 41%    Ejercito (UNA), 41.7%
10

   Poe (Ind.), 39%
   Trillanes (NP), 39%

   Pimentel (PDP), 32.7%

   Angara (LDP), 38%
   Trillanes (NP), 38%

   Pimentel (PDP), 39.6%
11    Angara (LDP), 31.2%    Trillanes (NP), 37.7%
12

   Enrile (NPC), 37%
   Honasan (UNA), 37%

   Zubiri (UNA), 29.7%    Honasan (UNA), 37%    Honasan (UNA), 36.7%
13    Honasan (UNA), 27.9%    Enrile (NPC), 35%    Enrile (NPC), 35.7%
14

   Zubiri (UNA), 35%
   R. Magsaysay (LP), 35%

   Enrile (NPC), 27.2%

   R. Magsaysay (LP), 33%
   Zubiri (UNA), 33%

   R. Magsaysay (LP), 33.3%
15    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 25.8%    Zubiri (UNA), 32.1%
16    Madrigal (LP), 30%    R. Magsaysay (LP), 25.6%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 29%    Gordon (UNA), 31.8%
17    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 29%    Gordon (UNA), 22.4%    Gordon (UNA), 27%    Hontiveros (Akbayan), 29.9%
18    Gordon (UNA), 27%    Madrigal (LP), 20.4%    Madrigal (LP), 25%    Madrigal (LP), 26.2%
19    Hagedorn (Ind.), 17%    Hagedorn (Ind.), 13.7%    Hagedorn (Ind.), 16%    Hagedorn (Ind.), 19.8%
20    Maceda (UNA), 16%    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 11.0%    Villanueva (BP), 15%    Villanueva (BP), 16.4%
21    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 15%    Villanueva (BP), 10.8%    Maceda (UNA), 14%    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 13.5%
22    Cojuangco (UNA), 14%    Maceda (UNA), 9.1%    M. Magsaysay (UNA), 13%    Maceda (UNA), 11.6%
23    Villanueva (BP), 13%    Cojuangco (UNA), 7.3%    Cojuangco (UNA), 11%    Cojuangco (UNA), 11.3%
24    Casiño (Makabayan), 7%    Casiño (Makabayan), 6.5%    Casiño (Makabayan), 9%    Casiño (Makabayan), 10.3%
25    Montaño (Ind.), 5% Alcantara (SJS), 2.4%    Montaño (Ind.), 5% Alcantara (SJS), 3.4%
26    David (AKP), 4%

   de los Reyes (AKP), 2.1%
   Montaño (Ind.), 2.1%

Alcantara (SJS), 3%
   de los Reyes (AKP), 3%
   David (AKP), 3%

   de los Reyes (AKP), 2.9%
27

   de los Reyes (AKP), 3%
Alcantara (SJS), 3%
   Penson (Ind.), 3%

   Belgica (DPP), 2.8%
28    David (AKP), 1.6%    Montaño (Ind.), 2.4%
29    Belgica (DPP), 1.3%

   Penson (Ind.), 2%
   Falcone (DPP), 2%
   Llasos (AKP), 2%
   Belgica (DPP), 2%

   David (AKP), 2.2%
30

   Falcone (DPP), 2%
   Señeres (DPP), 2%
   Llasos (AKP), 2%
   Belgica (DPP), 2%

   Falcone (DPP), 1.1%
   Penson (Ind.), 1.1%

   Falcone (DPP), 1.9%
31    Llasos (AKP), 1.7%
32    Llasos (AKP), 1.0%    Penson (Ind.), 1.6%
33    Señeres (DPP), 0.7%    Señeres (DPP), 1%    Señeres (DPP), 1.6%
None
Refused
Undecided
2% undecided
4% invalid markings
6.1% none/refused/don't know
4.1% invalid votes
3% undecided
3% invalid markings
2.8% none/refused/don't know
5.0% invalid votes

Rankings edit

Top 12 in the survey
Outside the top 12 but within the margin of error
  • Polls administered after October 2010, the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies.
  • The rankings below are from the pollsters that published them. The pollsters may or may not consider "statistical ties", or candidates whose voting preferences' margins are within the margin of error .
Candidate Strat-POLLS[7] Pulse Asia[8] SWS[9] The Center[10] SWS[11] Pulse Asia[12] SWS[13] Pulse Asia[14] Strat-POLLS[15] SWS[16] Pulse Asia[17] SWS[18] Pulse Asia[19] SWS[20] Pulse Asia[21]
10/8−17 11/23−29 11/29−12/3 1/9−17 1/17−19 1/19−30 2/15−17 2/24−28 3/8−13 3/15−17 3/16−20 4/13−15 4/13−15 5/2−3 5/10−11
Samson Alcantara 23–27 25–26 25–27 24–28 28–30 25–32 31 25–29 25–32 27–29 25–29 26–28 25−30
Sonny Angara 6 8–12 13 13 6–12 11–12 10–15 9 12 8–15 9 8–14 10–11 5–10
Bam Aquino 14–17 17 15 13–15 9–10 4–9 11 10 4–12 6 4–10 9 4–9
Greco Belgica 28–32 28 29–32 29–33 28–30 25–32 27 33 25–33 30–33 25–33 30–32 25–33
Nancy Binay 8–12 9–10 10 12 4–9 7 4–9 5 5–7 4–11 3–4 5–11 3–4 3–8
Teodoro Casiño 22–25 22–23 24 24–25 24 24 25 24 24 24 23–24 24 22–24
Alan Peter Cayetano 3 3–4 3 3 3 3 3 1–3 4 2 2–3 2 3–7 2 2–6
Tingting Cojuangco 19–20 22–23 20 20–23 20–22 19–23 20 20–21 19–23 22 22–24 23 21–24
Rizalito David 24–29 24 25–27 25–28 25 25–33 28 30–32 25–32 26 25–33 26–28 25–33
John Carlos de los Reyes 24–29 27 28 25–28 26–27 25–29 24 30–32 25–32 27–29 25–32 26–28 25–33
JV Ejercito 7 3–6 5 4 4 4–9 9–10 4–9 6 3–4 4–12 7–8 5–11 6–7 7–11
Jack Enrile 10–11 4–7 6–7 9 8–9 4–12 13 9–15 7–8 13–14 11–16 7–8 11–16 13 10–16
Francis Escudero 2 1–2 2 2 2 1–2 2 1–3 2 3–4 1–3 5 1–2 3–4 1–2
Baldomero Falcone 28 25–31 29–32 29–33 31–33 26–33 33 25–29 25–33 30–33 26–33 29–32 25–33
Richard J. Gordon 8 13–17 12 14 13-16 17 11–16 15 16–17 12–17 18 14–18 17 13–17
Edward Hagedorn 14 21–22 21 21–22 20–23 23 19–23 23 23 19–23 19 19–21 19 19–20
Gregorio Honasan 10–11 7–12 8 7 5–6 6–12 15 8–13 14 9 6–14 12–13 11–16 12 10–14
Risa Hontiveros 17–18 18 18–19 18–19 18 17–18 16 18 16–18 17 12–17 16 14–18
Loren Legarda 1 1–2 1 1 1 1–2 1 1–3 1 1 1–2 1 1–2 1 1–2
Marwil Llasos 28–32 31 33 29–33 31–33 29–33 30 25–29 25–33 30–33 26–33 29–32 26–33
Ernesto Maceda 19–20 16 18–19 18–19 19 19–22 19 19 19–22 20 20–23 21 21–24
Jamby Madrigal 12 13–14 14 17 14–17 14 14–17 18 16–17 15–18 16 17–18 18 17–18
Mitos Magsaysay 21–23 19 21–22 16–17 20–22 19–23 22 20–21 19–23 21 19–22 22 20–23
Ramon Magsaysay Jr. 14–17 15 16 16–17 16 16–18 17 13–14 13–18 14–15 12–17 14–15 11–17
Ramon Montaño 23–29 25–26 25–27 25–28 26–27 25–31 26 25–29 25–32 25 25–32 25 25–33
Ricardo Penson 25–31 29 29–32 29–33 28–30 26–33 29 25–29 25–33 27–29 26–33 29–32 26–33
Aquilino Pimentel III 4 5–8 6–7 5 5–6 4–12 5–6 4–12 12 5–7 4–10 7–8 6–12 8 8–13
Grace Poe 15 14–18 20 12 10–11 13–16 5–6 4–10 3 11 4–10 10–11 3–4 5 2–7
Christian Señeres 30–32 31–32 29–32 29–33 31–33 27–33 32 30–32 29–33 30–33 28–33 33 26–33
Antonio Trillanes 13 8–12 11 11 10–11 4–12 8 9–15 7–8 8 4–12 10–11 4–10 10–11 9–14
Eddie Villanueva 23 20–23 20–22 20–23 21 22 20–23 23 19–22 20 19–21
Cynthia Villar 5 4–7 4 6 8–9 4–12 4 4–9 13 5–7 4–11 3–4 4–9 6–7 3–8
Juan Miguel Zubiri 9 8–12 9–10 8 7 6–12 11–12 11–16 10 15 11–16 14–15 10–16 14–15 13–17

Graph edit

 

The result of each candidate's opinion poll (survey) result is denoted by a plot point, or a "period" (per.). The lines denote moving averages (mov. avg.) of the last three polls (each poll given equal weight) for each candidate; as pollsters may use different methodologies, it is invalid to plot each period from all pollsters as if it is a single series. Hence, a moving average is used to link all polls from all pollsters into one series. Some candidates may not appear on some polls, and these do not include candidates who are not on the final list but were included in other polls. The twelfth ranking candidate in each poll is denoted by a line, for easy reference.

Seats won edit

The first figure denotes the number of candidates from the party or coalition that made it to the top 12 in each survey; the figures inside the parenthesis are other candidates that made it within the margin of error. The figure of the party or coalition (except independents) the most seats is highlighted; those that outright win a majority of seats contested (7, if 12 seats will be contested) is italicized, while the party or coalition that outright wins a majority of seats in the Senate (13) is boldfaced.

Some of the totals might not add up as most slates have shared candidates.

Before the filing of certificates of candidacy edit

Pollster Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
B-VNP LDP LP NP NPC PDP
Laban
PMP Ind.
2010 election May 10, 2010 38.1 million NA 0 0 3 2 1 0 2 1
Pulse Asia[1] Nov 10–23, 2011 1,200 ±3.0% 0 0 (1) 1 1 2 1 1 6 (1)
Pulse Asia[2] Feb 26–Mar 6, 2012 1,200 ±3.0% 0 0 1 (1) 1 2 1 1 5 (2)
April 4, 2012 The Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino and the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan announced that they will form the United Nationalist Alliance.[22]
Pulse Asia[3] May 20–26, 2012 1,200 ±3.0% 1 1 1 1 (1) 2 1 (1) 2 3 (1)
July 5, 2012 The Liberal Party announced they will form a united ticket with the Nacionalista Party and the Nationalist People's Coalition.[23]
SWS[4] Aug 24–27, 2012 1,200 ±3.0% 1 1 0 (2) 3 2 1 2 1 (1)
The Center[5] Aug 24–30, 2012 1,200 ±3.0% 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 4
Pulse Asia[6] Aug 31–Sept 7, 2012 1,200 ±3.0% 0 (1) 1 0 (1) 3 2 2 2 2 (1)
October 1, 2012 President Aquino presents the united ticket of the LP-Akbayan-NP-NPC-LDP coalition.[24]
October 4, 2012 The United Nationalist Alliance completes its slate with the announcement of Nancy Binay as its 12th candidate.[25]

After the filing of certificates of candidacy edit

  • Polls administered after October 5, 2010, the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies.
Pollster Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Parties Alliances
Ak-
bayan
LDP LP NP NPC PDP
Laban
UNA Ind. Others Maka-
bayan
Team PNoy SC UNA Others
October 5, 2012 Deadline of submitting candidacies.
StratPOLLS[7] Oct 8–17, 2012 300 <3%, >4% 0 1 1 2 (1) 2 1 4 1 (1) 0 4 5 (1) 2 5 0 (1)
Pulse Asia[8] Nov 23–29. 2012 1,200 ±3% 0 1 0 3 2 1 4 1 0 4 5 2 5 0
SWS[9] Nov 29–Dec 3, 2012 1,200 ±3% 0 0 (1) 0 3 2 1 5 1 0 4 4 (1) 2 6 0
January 7, 2013 United Nationalist Alliance releases its first TV advertisement.[26]
January 9, 2013 On the Senate funds controversy, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile admits to giving "cash gifts" to all but four senators that are known critics of his.[27]
The Center[10] Jan 9–17, 2013 1,200 0 0 0 3 2 1 4 2 0 5 4 3 5 0
SWS/BW[11] Jan 17–19, 2013 1,200 ±3% 0 0 0 3 2 1 4 2 0 5 4 3 5 0
January 21−23, 2013 On the Senate funds controversy, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile was retained as senate president in a virtual vote of confidence.[28] Two days later, he and Minority Floor Leader Alan Peter Cayetano engaged in a word war that turned personal.[29]
Pulse Asia[12] Jan 19–30, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 0 3 2 1 4 1 0 4 5 2 5 0
January 28, 2013 United ticket of the Liberal Party, Nacionalista Party and the NPC is rebranded as "Team PNoy", and releases its first TV advertisement.[30]
February 12, 2013 Start of campaign period for the Senate election.
SWS[13] Feb 15–17, 2013 1,200 ±3% 0 1 1 (1) 3 1 (1) 1 3 2 0 5 6 (1) 3 3 (1) 0
February 21, 2013 United Nationalist Alliance drops Francis Escudero, Loren Legarda and Grace Poe as guest candidates.[31]
Pulse Asia[14] Feb 24–28, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 0 (1) 1 3 2 1 3 (2) 2 0 5 8 (1) 4 (2) 0
March 1, 2013 A standoff between the Malaysian authorities and armed men claiming to be from the Sultanate of Sulu erupted into a military crisis that lasted for the rest of the month.[32]
StratPOLLS[15] Mar 8–13, 2013 1,200 ±3.5% 0 1 1 2 (1) 2 1 3 (1) 2 0 4 (1) 8 (1) 4 (1) 0
SWS[16] Mar 15–17, 2013 1,200 ±3% 0 1 1 (1) 3 1 (1) 1 3 2 0 5 9 (1) 3 (1) 0
March 20, 2013 The parents of actress Heart Evangelista held a press conference to announce their disapproval of their daughter's relationship with Senator Francis Escudero.[33]
Pulse Asia[17] Mar 16–20, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 1 3 1 (1) 1 3 (2) 2 0 5 9 3 (3) 0
March 30, 2013 Start of campaign period for local positions. As this was a Good Friday, campaigning in earnest was not allowed to start until March 31.
SWS[18] Apr 13–15, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 1 (1) 3 2 1 3 (1) 2 0 5 9 (1) 4 (1) 0
Pulse Asia[19] April 20–22, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 (1) 1 1 (1) 3 1 (1) 1 3 (1) 2 0 5 9 (2) 3 (2) 0
SWS[20] May 2–3, 2013 2,400 ±2% 0 1 1 (1) 3 1 (1) 1 3 (1) 2 0 6 9 (1) 3 (2) 0
Pulse Asia[21] May 10–11, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 1 (1) 3 1 (1) 1 3 2 0 5 9 (1) 3 (1) 0

Composition of the Senate edit

The first figure denotes the number of candidates from the party or coalition that made it to the top 12 in each survey; the figures inside the parenthesis are other candidates that made it within the margin of error. The figure of the party or coalition (except independents) that has the most seats is highlighted; those that outright wins a majority of seats in the Senate (13) is boldfaced.

These are polls administered after October 5, 2010, the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies.

Overview edit

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Before
election
Senate bloc Minority bloc Majority bloc Min
Party ‡^
Coalition Team PNoy (guest) UNA Unaffiliated
After
election
Senate bloc
Party ‡^  
Coalition Team PNoy Seats up UNA Unaffiliated

Key:

  • ‡ Seats up
  • ‡^ Vacant seat up
  • * Gained by a party from another party
  • √ Held by the incumbent
  • + Held by the same party with a new senator

Polls edit

Pollster Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Parties Alliances
Ak-
bayan
LDP LP NP NPC PDP
Laban
UNA Ind. Others Maka-
bayan
Team PNoy UNA Others
Current 0 1 4 5 2 2 3 2 4 4 14 3 6
October 5, 2012 Deadline of submitting candidacies.
StratPOLLS[7] Oct 8–17, 2012 300 <3%, >4% 0 1 4 4 (1) 3 2 6 1 (1) 3 4 13 (1) 9 4
Pulse Asia[8] Nov 23–29. 2012 1,200 ±3% 0 1 3 5 3 2 6 1 3 4 13 9 4
SWS[9] Nov 29–Dec 3, 2012 1,200 ±3% 0 0 (1) 3 5 3 2 7 1 3 4 12 (1) 10 4
January 7, 2013 United Nationalist Alliance releases its first TV advertisement.[26]
The Center[10] Jan 9–17, 2013 1,200 NA 0 0 3 5 3 2 6 2 3 5 13 10 4
SWS[11] Jan 17–19, 2013 1,200 ±3% 0 0 3 5 3 2 6 2 3 5 13 10 4
Pulse Asia[12] Jan 19–30, 2012 1,800 ±2% 0 1 3 5 3 2 6 1 3 4 13 9 4
January 28, 2013 United ticket of the Liberal Party, Nacionalista Party and the NPC is rebranded as "Team PNoy", and releases its first TV advertisement.[30]
February 12, 2013 Start of campaign period for the Senate election.
SWS[13] Feb 15–17, 2013 1,200 ±3% 0 1 4 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 15 (1) 8 (1) 4
February 21, 2013 United Nationalist Alliance drops Francis Escudero, Loren Legarda and Grace Poe as guest candidates.[31]
Pulse Asia[14] Feb 24–28, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 0 (1) 4 5 3 2 5 (2) 2 3 5 14 (1) 6 (2) 4
StratPOLLS[15] Mar 8–13, 2013 1,200 ±3.5% 0 1 4 4 (1) 3 2 5 (1) 2 3 4 (1) 14 (1) 6 (1) 4
SWS[16] Mar 15–17, 2013 1,200 ±3% 0 1 4 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 15 (1) 5 (1) 4
Pulse Asia[17] Mar 16–20, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 4 5 2 (1) 2 5 (2) 2 3 5 15 5 (3) 4
March 30, 2013 Start of campaign period for local positions. As this was a Good Friday, campaigning in earnest was not allowed to start until March 31.
SWS[18] Apr 13–15, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 4 5 3 2 5 2 3 5 15 (1) 6 (1) 4
Pulse Asia[19] Apr 20–22, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 (1) 1 4 (1) 5 2 (1) 2 5 (1) 2 3 5 15 (2) 5 (2) 4
SWS[20] May 2–3, 2013 2,400 ±2% 0 1 4 (1) 5 2 (1) 2 5 (1) 2 3 5 15 (1) 5 (2) 4
Pulse Asia[21] May 10–11, 2013 1,800 ±2% 0 1 4 (1) 5 2 (1) 2 5 2 3 5 15 (1) 5 (1) 4

References edit

  1. ^ a b "2013 elections: Senatorial preferences". Pulse Asia. Philippine Daily Inquirer. 2011-12-06. Retrieved 2011-12-07.
  2. ^ a b "Filipinos' Senatorial Preferences". Pulse Asia. 2012-03-22. Archived from the original on 2012-04-19. Retrieved 2012-03-25.
  3. ^ a b "Chiz, Loren lead Pulse Asia survey on Senate bets". Pulse Asia. Philippine Star. 2012-06-07. Retrieved 2012-07-04.
  4. ^ a b "August 24-27, 2012 BW-SWS Senatorial Preference Survey: Escudero, Legarda, and Cayetano lead Senatorial hopefuls". Social Weather Stations. 2012-10-03. Archived from the original on 2013-07-17. Retrieved 2012-10-17.
  5. ^ a b Santos, Vernice (2012-09-10). "Six reelectionists led by Escudero top Pulso ng Pilipino survey". Philippine Chronicle. Retrieved 2012-09-10.
  6. ^ a b "Loren, Chiz top Pulse Asia survey". Pulse Asia. Philippine Star. 2012-09-17. Retrieved 2012-09-17.
  7. ^ a b c d "LEGARDA, ESCUDERO LEAD LATEST STRATPOLLS SURVEY". StratPOLLS. StratPOLLS. 2012-10-18. Archived from the original on 2013-04-16. Retrieved 2012-10-29.
  8. ^ a b c d "LP, UNA bets top Pulse Asia survey". Rappler. 2012-12-11. Retrieved 2012-12-11.
  9. ^ a b c d "SWS November 29-December 3, 2012 Pre-Election Survey: The Senate score: UNA Coalition 5 or 6, LP Coalition 4 or 5, common candidates 2; Legarda and Escudero lead; Villar improves". Social Weather Stations. 2012-12-14. Archived from the original on July 17, 2013. Retrieved 2012-12-16.
  10. ^ a b c d "Survey shows UNA-LP split on senate slates". Solar News. 2013-02-04. Archived from the original on 2013-04-16. Retrieved 2013-02-06.
  11. ^ a b c d "SWS-BW January 2013 Pre-Election Survey: Senate race standing: common candidates 2, UNA 4, LP Coalition 3; 2 LP Coalition, 1 UNA, and 1 common candidate contend for last 3 seats; Legarda and Escudero lead, Poe joins magic 12". Social Weather Stations. 2013-01-28. Archived from the original on 2013-01-30. Retrieved 2013-01-28.
  12. ^ a b c d Esmaquel, Paterno II (2013-02-08). "Enrile son drops in latest survey". Rappler. Retrieved 2013-02-08.
  13. ^ a b c d "SWS-BW February 2013 Pre-Election Survey: Independent candidates 3, Team PNoy 4, UNA 1 in the top 8; 4 UNA and 3 Team PNoy contend for last 4 seats; Aquino enters circle of 12". Social Weather Stations. 2013-02-26. Archived from the original on 2013-03-01. Retrieved 2013-02-26.
  14. ^ a b c d "February 2013 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos' Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections". Pulse Asia. 2013-03-11. Retrieved 2013-03-11.
  15. ^ a b c d "The StratPOLLS-Business Mirror Nationwide Poll" (PDF). StratPOLLS. 2013-03-15. Retrieved 2013-03-26.[permanent dead link]
  16. ^ a b c d "SWS-BW March 2013 Pre-Election Survey: 6 Team PNoy, 2 UNA in the top 8; 4 Team PNoy, 3 UNA contend for last 4 seats; Honasan back in circle of 12". Social Weather Stations. 2013-03-26. Archived from the original on 2016-02-07. Retrieved 2013-03-26.
  17. ^ a b c d Pedrasa, Ira (2013-04-03). "Chiz hangs tough in Pulse Asia survey; JV down 5 pts". ABS-CBNnews.com. Retrieved 2013-04-03.
  18. ^ a b c d "SWS-BW April 2013 Pre-Election Survey: Senate score at 7 Team PNoy, 2 UNA in the top 9; 3 Team PNoy, 3 UNA compete for last 3 seats". Social Weather Stations. 2013-04-22. Archived from the original on 2013-04-24. Retrieved 2013-04-22.
  19. ^ a b c d "Pulse Asia: 11 Team PNoy, 5 UNA bets likely senatorial poll winners". Philippine Star. 2013-04-30. Retrieved 2013-04-30.
  20. ^ a b c d "SWS-BW Final Pre-Election Survey of May 2-3, 2013: 9 Team PNoy, 3 UNA In Top 12; 7 Team PNoy, 2 UNA Safe". Social Weather Stations. 2013-05-08. Archived from the original on 2013-06-23. Retrieved 2013-05-10.
  21. ^ a b c d "Pulse Asia's May 2013 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos' Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections". Pulse Asia. 2013-05-13. Retrieved 2013-09-23.
  22. ^ Sy, Marvin (2012-04-04). "From UNO to UNA, Erap, Binay unite". Philippine Star. Yahoo! Philippines News. Archived from the original on 2012-04-06. Retrieved 2012-04-05.
  23. ^ Diaz, Jess (2012-07-05). "LP, NP, NPC eye common ticket". Philippine Star. Retrieved 2012-07-05.[permanent dead link]
  24. ^ Michael Lim Ubac, Leila B. Salaverria (2012-10-01). "Aquino leads launch of administration coalition". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Retrieved 2012-10-04.
  25. ^ Reyes, Fat (2012-10-04). "UNA names Nancy Binay as 12th senatorial candidate". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Retrieved 2012-10-04.
  26. ^ a b Macaraig, Ayee (2013-01-08). "Campaign begins as UNA launches sorties". Rappler. Retrieved 2013-01-24.
  27. ^ Macaraig, Ayee (2013-01-09). "Enrile's 'cash gifts' exclude 4 critics". Rappler. Retrieved 2013-02-13.
  28. ^ "Enrile offers to quit, but 11 senators reject move". Rappler. 2013-01-21. Retrieved 2013-02-13.
  29. ^ "Enrile, Cayetano in an ugly word war". Rappler. 2013-01-21. Retrieved 2013-02-13.
  30. ^ a b Esguerra, Christian V. (2013-01-27). "Estrada, UNA slam LP restrictions on 'common bets' Legarda, Escudero, Poe". Philippine Daily Inquirer.
  31. ^ a b "UNA drops 3 senatorial bets, says campaign manager". Philippine Daily Inquirer. 2013-02-21. Retrieved 2013-02-21.
  32. ^ "Malaysia standoff with armed Filipinos ends in violence". Yahoo! News. Reuters. 2013-03-01. Archived from the original on 2013-03-03. Retrieved 2013-04-03.
  33. ^ "Leave our daughter, Heart's parents tell Chiz". ABS-CBNnews.com. 2013-03-20. Retrieved 2013-04-03.