Next Italian general election

The next Italian general election is due to be held no later than 28 May 2023.

Next Italian general election

← 2018 No later than 28 May 2023

All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
200 seats in the Senate of the Republic
Opinion polls
  Vito Claudio Crimi datisenato 2018 (cropped).jpg MatteoSalvini2018 (cropped).jpg Nicola Zingaretti 2012 crop.jpg
Leader Vito Crimi (acting) Matteo Salvini Nicola Zingaretti
Party Five Star Movement League Democratic Party
Leader since 22 January 2020 15 December 2013 17 March 2019
Leader's seat Lombardy (S) Lazio (S)[a] Did not stand
Last election 227 C / 112 S
32.7%
125 C / 58 S
17.4%
112 C / 53 S
18.8%
Current seats 191 C / 92 S 130 C / 63 S 92 C / 36 S

Incumbent Prime Minister

Giuseppe Conte
Independent



Under the current Constitution, voters would elect 400 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 200 members of the Senate of the Republic for the 19th Legislature of the Italian Republic.

BackgroundEdit

In the 2018 Italian general election, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.[4] On 4 March, the centre-right alliance, in which Matteo Salvini's League emerged as the main political force, won a plurality of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate, while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) led by Luigi Di Maio became the party with the largest number of votes. The centre-left coalition, led by Matteo Renzi, came third.[5] As a result, protracted negotiations were required before a new government could be formed.

The talks between the Five Star Movement and the League resulted in the proposal of the so-called "government of change" under the leadership of university professor Giuseppe Conte, a law professor close to the M5S.[6] After some bickering with President Sergio Mattarella,[7][8] Conte's cabinet, which was dubbed by the media as Western European "first all-populist government", was sworn in on 1 June.[9]

In August 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced a motion of no confidence against Conte, after growing tensions within the majority.[10][11] Many political analysts believe the no confidence motion was an attempt to force early elections to improve Lega's standing in Parliament, ensuring Salvini could become the next Prime Minister.[12] On 20 August, following the parliamentary debate in which Conte harshly accused Salvini of being a political opportunist who "had triggered the political crisis only to serve his personal interest",[13] the Prime Minister resigned his post to President Sergio Mattarella.[14]

On 21 August, Mattarella started the consultations with all the parliamentary groups. On the same day, the national direction of the Democratic Party (PD) officially opened to a cabinet with the Five Star Movement,[13] based on pro-Europeanism, a green economy, sustainable development, the fight against economic inequality and a new immigration policy.[15] However, the talks with President Mattarella resulted in an unclear outcome; thus, Mattarella announced a second round of consultation for 27 or 28 August.[16]

In the days that preceded the second round, a confrontation between the PD and M5S started,[17] while the left-wing Free and Equal (LeU) announced that they would support a potential M5S–PD cabinet.[18] On 28 August, the leader of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti, announced at the Quirinal Palace his favorable position on forming a new government with the Five Stars with Giuseppe Conte at its head.[19] On same day, Mattarella summoned Conte to the Quirinal Palace for the 29 August to give him the task of forming a new cabinet.[20] On 3 September, the members of the Five Star Movement voted on the so-called "Rousseau Platform" in favor of an agreement with the Democrats, under the premiership of Giuseppe Conte, with more than 79% of votes out of nearly 80,000 voters.[21] On 4 September, Conte announced the ministers of his new cabinet, which was sworn in at the Quirinal Palace on the following day.[22]

Under Conte's governments, the Italian Parliament approved the so-called "Fraccaro Reform", from the name of the M5S deputy who was the bill's first signatory.[23] The reform was finally approved by the Parliament, with the fourth and final vote in the Chamber of Deputies on 8 October 2019 with 553 votes in favor and 14 against. In the final vote, the bill was supported both by the majority and the opposition;[24] only the liberal party More Europe (+Eu) and other small groups voted against.[25] The reform provided a cut in the number of MPs, which would shrink from 630 to 400 deputies and from 315 to 200 senators.[26] On 20 and 21 September 2020, Italians largely approved the reform with nearly 70% of votes.[27]

Electoral systemEdit

The Italian electoral law of 2017 (Rosatellum) used in 2018 Italian general election had to be modified, after the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, to function with 600 MPs with its FPTP single-member districts redesigned on the Italian territory for the 2023 election.[28][29] The single-member districts changes were eventually approved and published on December 30 in the Italian government gazette Gazzetta Ufficiale: the Chamber of Deputies went down from 232 to 147 districts, the Senate down from 116 to 74.[30][31]

Date of the electionEdit

According to articles 60 and 61 of the Italian Constitution the election of both Houses of Parliament must take place every five years and no later than seventy days after the end of the previous legislature.[32]

Parties and leadersEdit

This is a list of the main active parties which would likely participate in the election and are polled in most opinion surveys.

Party Ideology Leader Current seats
Deputies Senators
Five Star Movement (M5S) Populism Vito Crimi (acting)
191
92
League (Lega) Right-wing populism Matteo Salvini
130
63
Forza Italia (FI) Liberal conservatism Silvio Berlusconi
91
54
Democratic Party (PD) Social democracy Nicola Zingaretti
92
36
Brothers of Italy (FdI) National conservatism Giorgia Meloni
33
19
Italia Viva (IV) Liberalism Matteo Renzi
30
17
Article One (Art. 1) Social democracy Roberto Speranza
6
1
Cambiamo! (C!) Liberal conservatism Giovanni Toti
5
2
The Left (LS) Democratic socialism collective leadership
3
2
Action (Azione) Social liberalism Carlo Calenda
3
1
More Europe (+Eu) Liberalism Benedetto Della Vedova
1
1
Green Europe (EV) Green politics collective leadership
0
0

Opinion pollsEdit

 
6-point average trend line of poll results from 4 March 2018 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  M5S
  PD
  Lega
  FI
  FdI
  LeU/LS (A1+SI)
  +Eu
  NcI
  PaP
  EV
  C!
  A
  IV

NotesEdit

  1. ^ At the 2018 Italian general election Salvini ran as capolista (list leader) for the League in five constituencies, namely Calabria 1, Lazio 1, Lombardy 4, Liguria 1 and Sicily 2.[1] He was originally elected in the Calabria 1 constituency. On 31 July 2019 the electoral commission of the Senate finally ruled for assigning Salvini's contested seat to Forza Italia; Salvini then took the Lazio 1 seat in substitution of the League senator Papaevangeliu.[2][3]

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Elezioni: Salvini Capolista al Senato in 5 circosrizioni" (in Italian). agvilvelino.it. 29 January 2018. Retrieved 12 September 2019.
  2. ^ Tornago, Andrea (17 July 2019). "Salvini vicino a perdere il seggio in Calabria. Traballa la maggioranza del governo in Senato". Repubblica.it (in Italian). Retrieved 19 September 2019.
  3. ^ "senato.it - Scheda di attività di Matteo SALVINI - XVIII Legislatura". senato.it (in Italian). Senate of the Republic. Retrieved 19 September 2019.
  4. ^ Sala, Alessandro (2018). "Elezioni 2018: M5S primo partito, nel centrodestra la Lega supera FI".
  5. ^ "Elezioni politiche: vincono M5s e Lega. Crollo del Partito democratico. Centrodestra prima coalizione. Il Carroccio sorpassa Forza Italia". 4 March 2018.
  6. ^ "Conte says to be Italians' defence lawyer in govt of change" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  7. ^ "Mattarella meets Conte, 'vetoed' Savona" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  8. ^ "Conte drops govt bid" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  9. ^ "Governo Conte, la lista di tutti i ministri: Salvini all’Interno e Di Maio al Welfare. Saranno vicepremier" Archived 1 June 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  10. ^ "La Lega presenta al Senato una mozione di sfiducia a Conte. M5S attacca Salvini: "Giullare"". rainews.
  11. ^ "Il Senato ha bocciato la mozione del M5S sulla TAV". Il Post (in Italian). 7 August 2019. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
  12. ^ Squires, Nick (August 9, 2019). "Italy's League files no confidence motion in prime minister in bid to trigger election". The Telegraph – via www.telegraph.co.uk.
  13. ^ a b Giuffrida, Angela (August 20, 2019). "Italian PM resigns with attack on 'opportunist' Salvini". The Guardian – via www.theguardian.com.
  14. ^ Horowitz, Jason (August 20, 2019). "Italy's Government Collapses, Turning Chaos Into Crisis". The New York Times.
  15. ^ "Governo, Zingaretti: "I 5 punti per trattare con il M5S. No accordicchi, governo di svolta"". Repubblica.it. August 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "Crisi di governo, secondo giro di consultazioni al Colle". Tgcom24. Archived from the original on 2019-08-27. Retrieved 2019-09-04.
  17. ^ "Ecco l'accordo sul Conte bis: Zingaretti dà il via libera, nodo su ministeri e manovra". Fanpage.
  18. ^ "Grasso, possibile intesa M5s-Pd-Leu - Ultima Ora". Agenzia ANSA. August 19, 2019.
  19. ^ "Italy's Conte might be back at helm with Salvini shut out". Washington Post.
  20. ^ "C'è l'accordo tra M5s e Pd. Governo giallorosso ai nastri di partenza". Agi.
  21. ^ "Governo, via libera di Rousseau all'intesa M5s-Pd con il 79% dei voti. Conte domattina al Quirinale". Repubblica.it. September 3, 2019.
  22. ^ "Italy swears in new coalition government | DW | 05.09.2019". Deutsche Welle. 5 September 2019. Retrieved 1 October 2019.
  23. ^ "La Camera approva la riforma Fraccaro. Via al taglio dei parlamentari - TGR Trento". TGR. Archived from the original on 24 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  24. ^ Sciorilli Borrelli, Silvia (8 October 2019). "Italian lawmakers want fewer Italian lawmakers". POLITICO. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  25. ^ "Taglio dei parlamentari, Orfini: "La riforma fa schifo". Chi sono i contrari". it.notizie.yahoo.com. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  26. ^ "Italy shrinks parliament 'to save €1bn'". BBC News. 8 October 2019. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  27. ^ Elezioni e Referendum 2020, risultati in diretta: vince il Sì con il 69%. Toscana e la Puglia restano a sinistra: vittorie di Giani ed Emiliano. Marche a destra. Plebisciti per Zaia e De Luca, Toti si tiene la Liguria, Il Fatto Quotidiano
  28. ^ "La nuova legge elettorale, il testo base è in commissione" [New electoral law, the text entered evaluation]. Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (in Italian). 7 September 2020. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  29. ^ "Taglio dei parlamentari: perché serve anche una nuova legge elettorale" [MPs cut: why a new electoral law is needed]. Corriere della Sera (in Italian). 23 August 2019. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  30. ^ "Simulazione YouTrend: se si votasse oggi con i nuovi collegi del Rosatellum?" [YouTrend simulation: what if we would vote today with the new Rosatellum districts?]. YouTrend (in Italian). 11 January 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  31. ^ "Riduzione dei parlamentari, pubblicati in Gazzetta i nuovi collegi di Camera e Senato" [MPs reduction, new districts of Chamber and Senate published in the Gazzetta]. Centropagina.it (in Italian). 30 December 2020. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  32. ^ "Constitution of the Italian Republic" (PDF). senato.it. Senate of the Republic. Retrieved 14 November 2019.