43rd Ontario general election

The 43rd Ontario general election will be held on or before June 2, 2022. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[2] The Legislative Assembly of Ontario can be dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggers a snap election. Since the current government has a majority, it is a near-certainty that any non-confidence vote would not pass. In terms of an unexpected snap election, on October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[3][4]

43rd Ontario general election

← 2018 On or before June 2, 2022 (2022-06-02)

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Doug Ford in Toronto - 2018 (41065995960) (cropped).jpg Horwath infobox.PNG Steven Del Duca - 2015.png
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath Steven Del Duca
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009 March 7, 2020
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre Running in
Vaughan—Woodbridge[1]
Last election 76 seats, 40.50% 40 seats, 33.56% 7 seats, 19.59%
Current seats 71 40 8
Seats needed Steady Increase23 Increase55

  Mike Schreiner and Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped2).jpg
NBP
Leader Mike Schreiner Jim Karahalios
Party Green New Blue
Leader since May 16, 2009 November 8, 2020
Leader's seat Guelph TBA
Last election 1 seat, 4.60% pre-creation
Current seats 1 1
Seats needed Increase62 Increase62

Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



StandingsEdit

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party Party leader Seats
2018 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 76 71
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 40 40
Liberal Steven Del Duca 7 8
Green Mike Schreiner 1 1
New Blue Jim Karahalios 0 1
  Independent 3
Vacant 0
Total 124 124

Note that for purposes of the administration of the Assembly, parties with fewer than 12 seats are not recognized, and their members are treated as independent MPPs.[5]

TimelineEdit

2018Edit

2019Edit

2020Edit

2021Edit

CandidatesEdit

See also: Candidates of the 43rd Ontario general election

Incumbents not running for reelectionEdit

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MPP
Don Valley West   Kathleen Wynne[24]
Simcoe—Grey   Jim Wilson[25]
Thornhill   Gila Martow[26]

Opinion pollsEdit

Polling organisation Last date of polling Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Polling type Sample size Margin of error Lead
Angus Reid June 7, 2021 HTML 37 33 22 6 3 Online 791 ±2% 4
Leger May 23, 2021 HTML 34 25 26 9 n/a Online 1,001 ±3.1% 8
Mainstreet Research May 16, 2021 PDF 33 28 27 6 6 Online 958 ±3% 5
Campaign Research May 8, 2021 HTML 36 25 28 7 4 Online 2,009 ±2% 8
Innovative Research Group May 4, 2021 PDF 32 22 36 8 2 Online 481 N/A 4
Abacus Data April 21, 2021 HTML 34 23 35 5 2 Online 1,007 ±3.1% 1
Innovative Research Group April 20, 2021 PDF 30 26 35 8 1 Online 800 N/A 5
Abacus Data April 14, 2021 HTML 34 23 34 5 4 Online 817 ±3.5% 0
Innovative Research Group April 13, 2021 PDF 32 24 33 8 2 Online 704 N/A 1
EKOS April 12, 2021 HTML 34.6 23.5 29.9 8.9 3 IVR 1204 ±2.8% 4.7
Campaign Research April 6, 2021 HTML 41 22 24 10 2 Online 1,886 ±2.3% 17
Leger March 22, 2021 PDF 38 28 23 8 3 Online 1,002 ±3.1% 10
Campaign Research March 11, 2021 HTML 43 25 20 9 3 Online 1,344 ±2.7% 18
Mainstreet Research February 16, 2021 HTML 43 22 25 6 4 IVR 1,011 ±3.08% 18
Campaign Research January 31, 2021 HTML 44 25 21 8 3 Online 1,427 ±2.6% 19
Abacus Data January 12, 2021 HTML 34 25 29 8 3 Online 793 ±3.48% 5
Mainstreet Research December 5, 2020 PDF 46.2 23.4 19.9 6.2 4.3 IVR 1,014 ±2.94% 22.8
Campaign Research December 3, 2020 PDF 45 20 24 8 5 Online 1,001 ±3% 21
Angus Reid November 30, 2020 HTML 42 28 22 5 3 Online 1,049 N/A 14
Campaign Research November 2, 2020 HTML 48 21 23 7 1 Online 1,118 ±3% 25
Abacus Data October 30, 2020 HTML 36 25 29 7 3 Online 1,000 ±3.1% 7
Abacus Data October 12, 2020 HTML 36 29 26 6 2 Online 1,000 ±3.1% 7
Campaign Research October 2, 2020 HTML 46 24 20 9 2 Online 1,017 ±3% 22
Campaign Research September 3, 2020 HTML 48 22 24 6 2 Online 1,129 ±3% 24
Angus Reid September 1, 2020 PDF 45 28 22 4 1 Online 1,026 ±3% 17
Campaign Research August 13, 2020 HTML 41 23 26 8 3 Online 2,013 ±2% 15
Innovative Research Group July 20, 2020 PDF 36 18 37 8 1 Online 974 N/A 1
Campaign Research July 10, 2020 HTML 45 20 27 7 1 Online 1,395 ±3% 18
Innovative Research Group June 23, 2020 PDF 31 21 39 9 1 Online 838 N/A 8
Mainstreet Research June 7, 2020 HTML 41.8 23.0 27.7 5.5 2.0 IVR 1,068 ±3% 14.1
Campaign Research June 2, 2020 PDF 44 22 27 6 2 Online 1,512 ±2.5% 17
Innovative Research Group June 1, 2020 PDF 33 20 38 9 0 Online 698 N/A 5
Angus Reid May 24, 2020 HTML 43 26 25 6 1 Online 1,061 N/A 17
Abacus Data May 22, 2020 HTML 36 19 38 5 2 Online 597 ±4.1% 2
Innovative Research Group May 5, 2020 PDF 34 18 39 7 1 Online 791 N/A 5
EKOS March 26, 2020 HTML 31.5 17.9 40.4 7.1 3.1 IVR 774 ±3.5% 8.9
Mainstreet Research March 20, 2020 HTML 33.1 23.2 33.0 6.9 3.8 IVR 1,017 ±2.73% 0.1
7 March 2020 Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Campaign Research March 5, 2020 PDF 32 28 28 10 2 Online 1,144 ±2.9% 4
Angus Reid February 28, 2020 PDF 36 31 24 8 1 Online 1,051 ±3.0% 5
Campaign Research February 26, 2020 PDF 32 28 29 9 3 Online 1,003 ±3.1% 3
Campaign Research February 9, 2020 PDF 30 26 30 11 3 Online 1,536 ±2.5% 0
EKOS January 19, 2020 HTML 31.1 21.2 36.2 9.1 2.3 IVR 634 ±3.9% 5.1
Pollara January 11, 2020 PDF 29 27 33 9 2 Online 2,198 ±2.1% 4
EKOS December 10, 2019 PDF 29.9 24.4 32.4 9.4 3.9 IVR 811 ±3.4% 2.5
Campaign Research September 9, 2019 PDF 32 27 28 11 2 Online 957 ±3.17% 4
Corbett Communications August 16, 2019 PDF 30 28 30 11 2 Online 1,099 ±3.0% 0
Corbett Communications July 10, 2019 PDF 28 26 28 15 3 Online 936 ±3.0% 0
Corbett Communications June 6, 2019 PDF 32 27 26 13 1 Online 1,555 ±3.0% 5
Mainstreet Research May 22, 2019 HTML 22.4 24.2 39.9 11.7 1.8 IVR 996 ±3.1% 15.7
Ipsos May 21, 2019 HTML 30 29 32 10[a] Online 1,000 ±3.5% 2
Corbett Communications May 3, 2019 PDF 35 25 27 12 1 Online 1,836 ±2.4% 8
Pollara May 1, 2019 PDF 30 31 26 11 1 Online 1,527 ±2.5% 1
Mainstreet Research March 22, 2019 HTML 34.4 26.6 26.0 9.4 3.6 IVR 1,290 ±2.73% 7.8
Innovative Research Group January 24, 2019 PDF 33 23 36 7 1 Online 751 3
Mainstreet Research January 17, 2019 HTML 41.4 27.0 22.6 7.0 2.2 IVR 1,127 ±2.92% 14.4
EKOS December 3, 2018 PDF 34.3 26.1 28.0 9.4 2.3 IVR 1,025 ±3.1% 6.3
Campaign Research November 9, 2018 HTML 34 25 32 7 2 Online 1,830 ±2.3% 2
Mainstreet Research November 7, 2018 HTML 42.2 26.5 21.3 6.4 3.5 IVR 1,229 ±2.79% 15.7
Innovative Research Group October 28, 2018 PDF 35 25 32 7 1 Online 1,628 3
Abacus Data October 1, 2018 HTML 36 29 24 8 3 Online 1,500 7
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 HTML 41.7 27.8 21.3 6.7 2.5 IVR 1,861 ±2.27% 13.9
29 June 2018 Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario
Innovative Research Group June 21, 2018 PDF 37 36 19 7 2 Telephone 607 ±4.0% 1
14 June 2018 John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
7 June 2018 Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
2018 election June 7, 2018 N/A 40.50 33.56 19.59 4.60 1.75 N/A 5,744,860 N/A 6.94

Target seatsEdit

Below are listed all the electoral districts in which the winning candidate won by a margin of less than 5%. The Green Party's most marginal opportunity was in Parry Sound—Muskoka where the party finished 3rd with the PCs having a 28.05% margin.

PC targetsEdit

Rank Electoral District Winning party 2018 2018 Margin PC's place 2018 Result
1 Scarborough—Guildwood   Liberal 0.21% 2nd
2 Brampton Centre   New Democratic 0.26% 2nd
3 Don Valley West   Liberal 0.40% 2nd
4 Brampton North   New Democratic 1.25% 2nd
5 Don Valley East   Liberal 2.84% 2nd
6 St. Catharines   New Democratic 3.02% 2nd
7 York South—Weston   New Democratic 3.12% 2nd
8 Oshawa   New Democratic 3.15% 2nd
9 Orléans   Liberal 3.85% 2nd
10 Essex   New Democratic 4.97% 2nd

NDP targetsEdit

Rank Electoral District Winning party 2018 2018 Margin NDP's place 2018 Result
1 Ottawa West—Nepean   PC 0.35% 2nd
2 Brantford—Brant   PC 1.09% 2nd
3 Sault Ste. Marie   PC 1.289% 2nd
4 Brampton West   PC 1.291% 2nd
5 Kitchener—Conestoga   PC 1.60% 2nd
6 Kitchener South—Hespeler   PC 1.81% 2nd
7 Scarborough—Rouge Park   PC 2.29% 2nd
8 Thunder Bay—Superior North   Liberal 2.71% 2nd
9 Peterborough—Kawartha   PC 3.92% 2nd
10 Cambridge   PC 4.48% 2nd

Liberal targetsEdit

Rank Electoral District Winning party 2018 2018 Margin Liberal's place 2018 Result
1 Thunder Bay—Atikokan   New Democratic 0.25% 2nd
2 Eglinton—Lawrence   PC 1.93% 2nd
3 Toronto—St. Paul's   New Democratic 2.57% 2nd
4 Ottawa West—Nepean   PC 3.52% 3rd

Notes

  1. ^ Includes the Ontario Green Party.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Benzie, Robert (March 7, 2020). "Vaughan's Del Duca wins Ontario Liberal leadership on first ballot". YorkRegion.com. Torstar. Metroland Media. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  2. ^ Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
  3. ^ "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford". Toronto Star. September 28, 2020.
  4. ^ "Hansard, October 5, 2020". www.ola.org. October 5, 2020.
  5. ^ https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ontario-government-to-raise-threshold-for-official-party-status-1.4175699
  6. ^ Janus, Andrea (June 7, 2018). "Kathleen Wynne ready to 'pass the torch,' quits as Ontario Liberal leader". CBC News. Retrieved June 15, 2018.
  7. ^ "Ottawa-area MPP John Fraser selected interim Ontario Liberal leader". CBC News. June 14, 2018. Retrieved June 15, 2018.
  8. ^ Crawley, Mike (June 29, 2018). "Doug Ford's 'truly humbled' as new Ontario PC government sworn in at Queen's Park". CBC News. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  9. ^ "Ted Arnott new Speaker of the Ontario Legislative Assembly". Toronto Star. July 11, 2018. Retrieved July 11, 2018.
  10. ^ Goodfield, Kayla (November 7, 2018). "Ford confirms PC MPP Jim Wilson resigned over sexual misconduct allegation". CP24. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  11. ^ "MPP Amanda Simard leaving PCs, will sit as an independent". CBC News. November 29, 2018. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  12. ^ "MPP Randy Hillier suspended from Ontario PC caucus after autism debate". CBC News. February 21, 2019. Retrieved February 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "Randy Hillier expelled from Ontario PC caucus". CBC News. March 15, 2019. Retrieved March 15, 2019.
  14. ^ "Liberal MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers officially resigns". Ottawa Citizen. July 31, 2019. Retrieved July 31, 2019.
  15. ^ "Liberals nominate Lalonde in Orléans riding". Ottawa Citizen. September 19, 2019.
  16. ^ Ferguson, Rob; Benzie, Robert (January 16, 2020). "Amanda Simard joins Liberals a year after quitting Doug Ford's Tories over French-language cuts". Toronto Star.
  17. ^ Holder, Gord (February 27, 2020). "Liberals hold Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa-Orleans seats in provincial byelections". Ottawa Citizen. Archived from the original on March 8, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  18. ^ Stone, Laura (March 7, 2020). "Steven Del Duca wins Ontario Liberal leadership race". Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on March 8, 2020.
  19. ^ "Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios booted from PC caucus after voting against COVID-19 emergency bill". CBC News. July 21, 2020.
  20. ^ "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford". Toronto Star. September 28, 2020.
  21. ^ "Hansard, October 5, 2020". www.ola.org. October 5, 2020.
  22. ^ "Premier Doug Ford Turfs MPP Roman Baber from Tory Caucus for Opposing COVID-19 Lockdown". Toronto Star. January 15, 2021.
  23. ^ Belinda C. Karahalios, Ontario Legislative Assembly, retrieved January 27, 2021
  24. ^ Herhalt, Chris (October 20, 2020). "Former Premier Kathleen Wynne not running again in 2022". cp24.com. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
  25. ^ Benzie, Robert (September 24, 2020). "MPP Jim Wilson won't seek re-election after ejection from PC caucus". thestar.com.
  26. ^ Nanji, Sabrina (December 9, 2020). "'Not an option': Gila Martow won't run for PCs in 2022, whether or not she makes the jump to federal politics". politicstoday.news.

External linksEdit