2021 Canadian federal election

The 2021 Canadian federal election (formally the 44th Canadian general election) was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary May Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election.[2]

2021 Canadian federal election

← 2019 September 20, 2021 (2021-09-20) 45th →

338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout62.3%[1] (Decrease 4.7 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Erin O'Toole March 18, 2021 portrait (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Seats before 155 119 32
Seats won 160[a] 119 32
Seat change Increase 5 Steady Steady
Popular vote 5,556,629 5,747,410 1,301,615
Percentage 32.62% 33.74% 7.64%
Swing Decrease 0.50 pp Decrease 0.60 pp Increase 0.01 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Annamie Paul in Toronto Regent Park (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (lost) Ran in Beauce (lost)
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55% 0 seats, 1.62%
Seats before 24 2 0
Seats won 25 2 0
Seat change Increase 1 Steady Steady
Popular vote 3,036,348 396,988 840,993
Percentage 17.82% 2.33% 4.94%
Swing Increase 1.84 pp Decrease 4.22 pp Increase 3.32 pp

Canada Election 2021 Results Map.svg
Canada Election 2021 Results Map Gains.svg

Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Trudeau won a third term as prime minister, his second minority government.[3] Though the Liberals were hoping to win a majority government to govern alone,[4] the results were mostly unchanged from the 2019 Canadian federal election.[5] The Liberals won the most seats at 160; as this falls short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, they are expected to form a minority government with support from other parties.[6][7] The Liberals set a record for the lowest vote share of a party that would go on to form government, winning 32.6% of the popular vote, while losing the popular vote to the Conservatives as they did in 2019.[8]

The Conservatives led by Erin O'Toole won 119 seats, 2 fewer than their result in 2019, and continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet won 32 seats, unchanged from the prior election. The New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh won 25 seats, a net increase of 1 seat, but nonetheless fell short of expectations.[9] The Green Party maintained 2 seats but party leader Annamie Paul was defeated for the third[b] time in her riding of Toronto Centre. The party received 2.3% of the popular vote, approximately a third of what they won in 2019.[10][11][12] Paul resigned as Green Party leader a week after the election.[13] The People's Party did not win any seats, despite winning nearly 5% of the popular vote, and party leader Maxime Bernier was defeated for the second time[c] in his riding of Beauce.[10]

BackgroundEdit

The 2019 Canadian federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs (twelve) for official party status, and no other party won any seats.[14][15]

In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 federal election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the 43rd Canadian Parliament.[16][17][18] Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th federal election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[19][20] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[21][22] On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[23] He stayed on until his successor Erin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[24][25]

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[2] The election was called on the same day as the fall of Kabul. In the first two weeks of the campaign, Trudeau received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War in Afghanistan.[26]

Criticism of Trudeau's decision to call an early election, particularly amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, was a major theme of his opponents' campaigns, and commentators noted a lack of support for a snap election amongst the public.[27][28][29]

Political parties and standingsEdit

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, and the standings at dissolution. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

 
A polling station on election day
Name Ideology Position Leader 2019 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism
Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
33.12%
157 / 338
155 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism
Centre-right to right-wing Erin O'Toole
34.34%
121 / 338
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Social democracy
Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.63%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
15.98%
24 / 338
24 / 338
Green Green politics Annamie Paul
6.55%
3 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.41%
1 / 338
5 / 338
Vacant seats N/A
0 / 338
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-electionEdit

Below are the 31 MPs who chose not to run in the 2021 federal election.

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Will Amos[30] Pontiac Quebec August 8, 2021
  Larry Bagnell[31] Yukon Yukon August 5, 2021
  Navdeep Bains[32] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[33] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[34] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[35] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[36] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[37] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Karen McCrimmon[38] Kanata—Carleton Ontario August 8, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[39] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[40] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Gagan Sikand[41] Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario August 15, 2021
  Adam Vaughan[42] Spadina—Fort York Ontario August 8, 2021
  Kate Young[43] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[44] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[45][46] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[47][48] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[49][50] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[51][52] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[53] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[54] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  David Yurdiga[55] Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Alberta August 14, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[56] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[56] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[57][58] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[59][60] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[61] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Yasmin Ratansi[d] Don Valley East Ontario No announcement
  Ramesh Sangha[d] Brampton Centre Ontario No announcement
  Marwan Tabbara[d] Kitchener South—Hespeler Ontario No announcement
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[62] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

Incumbent not renominatedEdit

Below are the MPs who were not renominated by their parties.

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Michel Boudrias[63] Terrebonne Quebec August 4, 2021

TimelineEdit

Changes in seats held (2020–2021)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[64] Marwan Tabbara  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1]  Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[65] Bill Morneau  Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien  Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[66] Michael Levitt  Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks  Liberal
Don Valley East November 9, 2020[67] Yasmin Ratansi  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 4]  Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington January 20, 2021[68][69] Derek Sloan  Conservative Expelled from caucus[a 5]  Independent
Brampton Centre January 25, 2021[70][71] Ramesh Sangha  Liberal Removed from caucus[a 6]  Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk May 11, 2021[72] Diane Finley  Conservative Resigned  Vacant
Fredericton June 10, 2021[73] Jenica Atwin  Green Changed affiliation  Liberal
  1. ^ laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
  2. ^ to pursue leadership of OECD
  3. ^ to become a non-profit executive
  4. ^ revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
  5. ^ accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
  6. ^ made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement

2019Edit

2020Edit

  • August 23–24, 2020: Erin O'Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party.
  • October 3, 2020: Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party.

2021Edit

  • August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped.[74]
  • September 2, 2021: 1st French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
  • September 8, 2021: 2nd French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
  • September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
  • September 20, 2021: Election Day.

EndorsementsEdit

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal Conservative New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green People's
Media Toronto Star[75] National Post[76]
Toronto Sun[77]
Le Devoir[78]
Public figures Hillary Clinton[79]
Bruce Heyman[80]
Andrew Leach[80]
Hazel McCallion[81]
Barack Obama[79]
Andrew Weaver[82]
Conrad Black[83]
Celina Caesar-Chavannes[84]
Rick Hillier[85]
François Legault[86]
Brian Lilley[87]
Mark Norman[88]
Cindy Blackstock[89]
Bernie Sanders[90]
Rashida Tlaib[91]
Unions and business associations United Steelworkers[92]

CampaignEdit

Liberal PartyEdit

On August 27, 2021, Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader, was forced to cancel a campaign rally set for Bolton, Ontario, over security concerns. There were reports of dozens of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau. This was not the first time, as there were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies, with individuals criticizing COVID-19 vaccines and public health measures.[93]

On September 14, 2021, Trudeau invited notable politicians, including former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien and former Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion, to a campaign rally in Brampton.[94]

Conservative PartyEdit

On August 24, 2020, Erin O'Toole, a Member of Parliament (MP) and former Minister of Veterans Affairs under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, defeated three other candidates, notably his main rival, former cabinet minister Peter MacKay, to become the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Although he ran on a 'true blue' platform,[95] O'Toole immediately softened his rhetoric and took a more moderate approach after becoming party leader. In March 2021, O'Toole announced a carbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberal carbon tax, despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax. O'Toole's plan included a levy from fuel purchases that would go into a tax-free "low carbon savings account". The plan was to start at $20 per tonne and go to a maximum of $50 per tonne, compared to the Liberals' plan, in which it would start at $40 per tonne and go up to $170 per tonne by 2030.[96]

In September 2021, O'Toole changed his position on gun control. Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau's May 2020 ban on assault weapons, he changed his stance on the issue, promising that he would not repeal the ban.[97] Political commentators and analysts described O'Toole's leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to the political centre.[98]

New Democratic PartyEdit

Jagmeet Singh. the leader of the New Democratic Party, did not rule out the possibility of working with the Conservatives if they had won a minority government.[99]

Bloc QuébécoisEdit

During the English-language federal leaders' debate on September 9, the moderator, Shachi Kurl, controversially asked Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, "You denied that Quebec has problems with racism yet you defend legislation such as bills 96 and 21, which marginalize religious minorities, anglophones and allophones. Quebec is recognized as a distinct society, but for those outside the province, please help them understand why your party also supports these discriminatory laws." This question prompted Blanchet, to challenge her use of the word "discriminatory". Blanchet's response to Kurl was seen as a turning point in the Bloc's election campaign, as they saw an upsurge in the polls days after the debate.[100] The Bloc Québécois reportedly had set a campaign target of winning 40 out of the 78 Quebec seats.[101]

Green PartyEdit

The Green Party of Canada had experienced a period of infighting, beginning in June 2021 when Jenica Atwin, one of its three MPs, crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis. Although there were calls for the party leader Annamie Paul to resign, she stayed on as leader through the federal election. Paul did not start the election with a seat in the House of Commons, and spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding of Toronto Centre and failed to win the seat.[citation needed]

People's PartyEdit

The People's Party of Canada, led by former Conservative cabinet minister Maxime Bernier, enjoyed a surge of support in the polls in August and September, going from as low as 3% to as high as 10%. Some political commentators believe that the sudden increase in support came as a result of large groups of individuals opposing COVID-19 pandemic vaccine passports, as the People's Party is known for its opposition towards COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates.[102]

Campaign slogansEdit

Party English French (translation)
Liberal Party of Canada "Forward. For Everyone."[103] "Avançons ensemble." ("Let's move forward together.")
Conservative Party of Canada "Secure the Future"[104] "Agir pour l'avenir." ("Act for the Future.")
New Democratic Party "Fighting for You"[105] "Oser ensemble" ("Dare Together")
Bloc Québécois
N/A
"Québécois" ("Quebecers")
Green Party of Canada "Be Daring."[106] "Faites le saut." ("Take the Leap.") and "Il faut de l'audace." ("Boldness is needed.")
People's Party of Canada "Common Sense Policies that put Canadians First" "Des politiques fondées sur le gros bon sens qui priorisent des Canadiens" (as in English)

Policy platformsEdit

Party Full platform PDF Reference
Liberal Party of Canada Forward. For Everyone. [107]
Conservative Party of Canada Canada's Recovery Plan [108]
New Democratic Party Ready for Better [109]
Bloc Québécois Québécois [110]
Green Party of Canada Platform 21. Be Daring. [111]
People's Party of Canada Not available (see reference) [112]

Leaders' debatesEdit

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[113][114] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates every future election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[113][114]

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date Organizers Location Language Moderator  P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited Source
Trudeau O'Toole Blanchet Singh Paul Bernier
September 2, 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N N [115][116]
September 8, 2021 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P N [117][118]
September 9, 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P N [117][118]

Opinion pollsEdit

 
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
 
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

ResultsEdit

Graph of Canadian national election results, 1993–2021; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2% of the vote as well as those who campaigned intermittently.

Summary resultsEdit

 
Pie chart of popular vote and seat counts
Elections Canada September 21, 2021, federal election results
160 119 32 25 2
Liberal Conservative BQ NDP G

Full resultsEdit

The Liberals maintained their status as largest party in the House of Commons. The results were very close to those of the 2019 federal election.[5]

edit Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissol. 2021 Change
from 2019
% seats Votes Vote
change
% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[e] 157 155 160[f]   3 47.34% 5,556,629   462,099 32.62%   0.50pp 32.62%
Conservative Erin O'Toole 337[g] 121 119 119   2 35.21% 5,747,410   491,817 33.74%   0.60pp 33.83%
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 78 32 32 32   9.47% 1,301,615   85,415 7.64%   0.01pp 32.11%
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338[h] 24 24 25   1 7.40% 3,036,348   132,626 17.82%   1.84pp 17.82%
Green Annamie Paul 252[i] 3 2 2   1 0.59% 396,988   792,619 2.33%   4.22pp 3.07%
People's Maxime Bernier 312 840,993   546,901 4.94%   3.32pp 5.31%
Free Michel Leclerc 59 N/A 47,252 N/A 0.28% N/A 1.49%
Maverick Jay D. Hill (interim) 29 N/A 35,178 N/A 0.21% N/A 2.30%
  Independent or No Affiliation 91 1 5   1 32,481   41,810 0.19%   0.22pp 0.69%
Christian Heritage Rodney L. Taylor 25 8,985   9,916 0.05%   0.05pp 0.67%
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 27 6,085   3,453 0.04%   0.01pp 0.41%
Libertarian Jacques Boudreau 13 4,765   3,602 0.03%   0.02pp 0.71%
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 26 4,700   795 0.03%   0.01pp 0.36%
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 36 4,532   408 0.03%   0.01pp 0.26%
Pour l'Indépendance du Québec Michel Blondin 10 2,934   881 0.02%   0.51%
Animal Protection Liz White 10 2,546   1,862 0.01%   0.01pp 0.48%
Marijuana Blair T. Longley 9 2,031   1,111 0.01%   0.42%
Veterans Coalition Randy David Joy 7 1,246   5,054 0.01%   0.02pp 0.30%
Centrist A.Q. Rana 4 N/A 648 N/A 0.00% N/A 0.40%
National Citizens Alliance Stephen J. Garvey 4 476   34 0.00%   0.22%
Patriote Carl Brochu 2 N/A 244 N/A 0.00% N/A 0.21%
Canada's Fourth Front Partap Dua 2 105   577 0.00%   0.09%
Canadian Nationalist Gus Stefanis 1 52   229 0.00%   0.14%
  Vacant 1
Total valid votes 17,034,243   1,136,637 100.00%
Total rejected ballots 175,568   3,697 1.02%   0.04pp
Total 2,010 338 338 338 100.00% 17,209,811   1,140,334 100.00% 100.00%
Electorate/turnout 27,366,297   6,761 62.89%   4.14pp
Source: House of Commons,[126] validated and judicial recount results;[127] full results spreadsheet[128]

Special ballots in the electionEdit

Special ballot voting kits issued and returned[129]
Reason Issued Returned
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from inside their riding 1,014,708 899,819
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from outside their riding 199,629 151,117
Living outside of Canada 55,700 27,253
Total 1,270,037 1,078,189

Judicial recountsEdit

In a federal election, a judicial recount is automatically ordered in a riding where the margin of victory is less than 0.1% (one one-thousandth) of the votes cast. In cases where there is a larger but still narrow margin of victory, an elector can request a judicial recount. As no validated results triggered an automatic recount in this election, judicial recounts were requested in four ridings: Brome—Missisquoi, Davenport, Châteauguay—Lacolle and Trois-Rivières. Liberal incumbent MP Brenda Shanahan was the only applicant successful in overturning the initial result. After the recount in the riding of Châteauguay—Lacolle, she was proclaimed the ultimate winner with only 12 votes more than the Bloc candidate Patrick O'Hara.[130] Being the closest result in the entire election, it is also the first time validated results were reversed by a judicial recount since the 2008 election. [131] Recounts in Brome—Missiquoi and Davenport began on October 12; however, in both ridings the early count appeared to confirm the initial validated results, leading both challengers to concede defeat and the recount to be terminated.[132][133]

Riding Initial validated results, first and second place Recount date Judicially certified results, first and second place
Candidate Votes % Candidate Votes %
Brome—Missisquoi, Quebec[134]   Pascale St-Onge, Liberal 21,488 34.96% October 12, 2021 (terminated) [135] Judicial recount terminated at the request of the candidate who had requested it
  Marilou Alarie, BQ 21,291 34.64%
Davenport, Ontario[136]   Julie Dzerowicz, Liberal 19,930 42.13% October 12, 2021 (terminated)[137]
  Alejandra Bravo, NDP 19,854 41.97%
Châteauguay—Lacolle, Quebec[138]   Patrick O'Hara, BQ 18,028 36.98% October 4, 2021   Brenda Shanahan, Liberal 18,029 37.03%
  Brenda Shanahan, Liberal 17,742 36.39%   Patrick O'Hara, BQ 18,017 37.01%
Trois-Rivières, Quebec[139][140]   René Villemure, BQ 17,119 29.51% October 5, 2021   René Villemure, BQ 17,136 29.49%
  Yves Lévesque, Conservative 17,027 29.35%   Yves Lévesque, Conservative 17,053 29.35%

Initially, the preliminary results of Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley in the province of Manitoba were so close that the Liberal former MP Doug Eyolfson had just 24 votes less than the Conservative incumbent MP Marty Morantz, and that margin would trigger an automatic recount.[141] On 28 September, Eyolfson conceded after the validated results had widened the gap to 460 votes, which is approximately 1% of the total vote.[142]

10 closest ridingsEdit

Incumbents are denoted in bold and followed by (I).

Riding Winner Runner-up Vote difference
Châteauguay—Lacolle   Brenda Shanahan (I)   Patrick O'Hara 12
Davenport   Julie Dzerowicz (I)   Alejandra Bravo 76
Trois-Rivières   René Villemure   Yves Levesque 83
Brome—Missisquoi   Pascale St-Onge   Marilou Alarie 197
Sault Ste. Marie   Terry Sheehan (I)   Sonny Spina 247
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame   Clifford Small   Scott Simms (I) 281
Vancouver Granville   Taleeb Noormohamed   Anjali Appadurai 431
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley   Marty Morantz (I)   Doug Eyolfson 460
Fredericton   Jenica Atwin (I)   Andrea Johnson 502
Kitchener—Conestoga   Tim Louis (I)   Carlene Hawley 577

MapsEdit

Elections Canada 2021 results[1]
 
Map showing results by riding
 
Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal-area ridings

Analysis and aftermathEdit

The remarkable similarity of the results and those of the 2019 federal election may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre results have left their mark on the electorate. A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77% of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever, and 52% feel that Canada's democratic system is broken.[143]

Political partiesEdit

Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results. Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC's better performance, compared to the 2019 federal election, contributed to the Conservatives under Erin O'Toole losing to the Liberals. Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi and University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings.[144][145][146] The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc; however, it has been described as not a simple generalization, as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.[147]

Unusual vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significant Chinese-Canadian populations, with especially large ones arising in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre.[148] This was uncovered early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research, which observed that they "were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections."[148] While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China-Canada issues,[148] others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese-language media.[149][150]

Even before the mail-in ballots were counted, the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33.1% to 32.3%. Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Trudeau, praised the result as a "smart campaign" that prioritized "vote efficiency"; this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign.[151] Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit, commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since the Unite the Right movement and the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003.[152]

O'Toole faces a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023, and a member of the national council has already called for a petition to accelerate the process.[153] Other Conservatives are urging continued support of O'Toole, and are calling for the party to unify around him.[154] Most party and caucus members appear to favour a post-mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the 2004 federal election.[155]

The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3%, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May has called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it.[156] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27.[157]

Calls for electoral reformEdit

Commentators at The Conversation noted that for a second election in a row the Liberals won the greatest number of seats but lost the popular vote to the Conservatives under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system.[158] During the campaign, Trudeau said he remains open to getting rid of Canada's FPTP if re-elected, provided there is consensus on the issue; he also expressed his preference for ranked voting over proportional representation. Trudeau had promised during the 2015 campaign that the 2015 federal election would be the last federal election to use FPTP.[159][160]

Candidates electedEdit

Forty-nine MPs were elected for the first time, and two more (Randy Boissonnault and John Aldag) returned after having been defeated in 2019. The number of female MPs—103, up from 100 in 2019—is a record high for the House, and 22 of the first-time MPs are women.[161]

Kevin Vuong, whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed, still won the riding of Spadina—Fort York. Vuong has announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in.[162] Adam Vaughan, the previous incumbent, has called on Vuong to resign as his victory was "compromised".[163]

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He is not expected to be seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. ^ Annamie Paul lost the by-election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election.
  3. ^ Maxime Bernier was unseated in 2019.
  4. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Liberal banner
  5. ^ Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini who withdrew, and Spadina—Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate, both after the deadline for candidate registration, and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals.[119][120]
  6. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal and is still counted as a Liberal until sworn in. Vuong has announced that he will sit as an independent when parliament convenes.[121]
  7. ^ Includes Beaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative.[122] The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline.[123]
  8. ^ Includes Toronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats.[124]
  9. ^ Includes Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Green.[125]

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