2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2008

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  John McCain official portrait 2009.jpg Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 638,017 422,310
Percentage 58.72% 38.86%

Arkansas Presidential Election Results 2008.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic


Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.9% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush did in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain performed over 4% better than Bush did in 2004, more than any other state. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican (some by as much as a 30% swing toward the Republicans).[1] Of the 10 counties with the largest % swing to the Republicans in 2008, 6 of them, a majority, were in Arkansas.[2] Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Arkansas was one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season.

PrimariesEdit

Arkansas swung and trended more Republican than any other state in the nation during the election

CampaignEdit

PredictionsEdit

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

PollingEdit

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.[16] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.[17] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

FundraisingEdit

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.[18][19]

Advertising and visitsEdit

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.[20] Neither candidate visited the state.[21]

AnalysisEdit

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a double-digit lead among possible voters on Election Day.[22] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the state and local levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier. A possible factor for such the large swing away from the Democrats could have been the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

ResultsEdit

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2008[23]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 638,017 58.72% 6
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 422,310 38.86% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 12,882 1.19% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 4,776 0.44% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,023 0.37% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,470 0.32% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 1,139 0.10% 0
Totals 1,086,617 100.00% 6
Voter turnout 64.52%

By congressional districtEdit

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 58.69% 38.41% Marion Berry
2nd 53.98% 44.07% Vic Snyder
3rd 64.16% 33.45% John Boozman
4th 58.14% 39.33% Michael Avery Ross

By countyEdit

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Arkansas 37.53% 2,619 59.97% 4,185 2.49% 174 6,978
Ashley 34.44% 2,976 62.55% 5,406 3.01% 260 8,642
Baxter 32.73% 6,539 64.32% 12,852 2.95% 590 19,981
Benton 30.67% 23,331 67.20% 51,124 2.13% 1,618 76,073
Boone 28.66% 4,435 68.34% 10,575 3.% 464 15,474
Bradley 41.57% 1,680 55.98% 2,262 2.45% 99 4,041
Calhoun 31.17% 691 65.94% 1,462 2.89% 64 2,217
Carroll 39.44% 4,172 57.50% 6,083 3.06% 324 10,579
Chicot 58.43% 3,043 40.69% 2,119 .88% 46 5,208
Clark 46.92% 4,267 50.67% 4,608 2.41% 219 9,094
Clay 40.72% 2,244 55.02% 3,032 4.26% 235 5,511
Cleburne 26.03% 2,951 70.22% 7,962 3.75% 425 11,338
Cleveland 25.99% 911 69.93% 2,451 4.08% 143 3,505
Columbia 37.18% 3,554 61.32% 5,861 1.5% 143 9,558
Conway 38.70% 3,149 57.64% 4,691 3.66% 298 8,138
Craighead 36.47% 11,294 60.97% 18,881 2.56% 793 30,968
Crawford 25.51% 5,238 71.54% 14,688 2.95% 606 20,532
Crittenden 56.59% 10,330 41.91% 7,650 1.51% 275 18,255
Cross 36.19% 2,580 61.61% 4,393 2.2% 157 7,130
Dallas 44.33% 1,471 52.95% 1,757 2.71% 90 3,318
Desha 54.92% 2,569 42.73% 1,999 2.35% 110 4,678
Drew 39.30% 2,598 58.40% 3,860 2.3% 152 6,610
Faulkner 36.32% 14,955 61.59% 25,362 2.09% 862 41,179
Franklin 28.86% 1,869 68.12% 4,411 3.01% 195 6,475
Fulton 38.90% 1,819 57.78% 2,702 3.31% 155 4,676
Garland 36.37% 15,899 61.36% 26,825 2.28% 995 43,719
Grant 22.99% 1,562 73.94% 5,023 3.06% 208 6,793
Greene 33.36% 4,541 63.02% 8,578 3.62% 493 13,612
Hempstead 39.04% 2,869 58.14% 4,273 2.82% 207 7,349
Hot Spring 35.87% 4,288 60.30% 7,209 3.83% 458 11,955
Howard 36.03% 1,746 61.02% 2,957 2.95% 143 4,846
Independence 29.99% 3,688 67.12% 8,255 2.89% 356 12,299
Izard 34.34% 1,792 61.19% 3,193 4.47% 233 5,218
Jackson 39.54% 2,207 55.86% 3,118 4.6% 257 5,582
Jefferson 62.19% 18,465 35.89% 10,655 1.92% 569 29,689
Johnson 37.09% 3,034 60.17% 4,922 2.74% 224 8,180
Lafayette 39.04% 1,133 58.06% 1,685 2.89% 84 2,902
Lawrence 36.67% 2,138 57.58% 3,357 5.75% 335 5,830
Lee 60.14% 2,263 38.64% 1,454 1.22% 46 3,763
Lincoln 38.81% 1,710 57.04% 2,513 4.15% 183 4,406
Little River 34.03% 1,753 63.02% 3,247 2.95% 152 5,152
Logan 28.91% 2,286 67.66% 5,350 3.43% 271 7,907
Lonoke 25.14% 5,968 72.63% 17,242 2.24% 531 23,741
Madison 33.88% 2,144 62.77% 3,972 3.35% 212 6,328
Marion 33.29% 2,384 63.17% 4,524 3.55% 254 7,162
Miller 32.32% 4,869 65.81% 9,913 1.87% 281 15,063
Mississippi 47.59% 6,667 49.79% 6,976 2.62% 367 14,010
Monroe 46.83% 1,615 50.86% 1,754 2.32% 80 3,449
Montgomery 30.15% 1,092 65.30% 2,365 4.56% 165 3,622
Nevada 40.55% 1,474 56.73% 2,062 2.72% 99 3,635
Newton 29.85% 1,182 65.35% 2,588 4.8% 190 3,960
Ouachita 43.63% 4,346 54.49% 5,427 1.88% 187 9,960
Perry 31.60% 1,352 64.10% 2,743 4.3% 184 4,279
Phillips 63.50% 5,695 34.53% 3,097 1.97% 177 8,969
Pike 27.46% 1,089 68.76% 2,727 3.78% 150 3,966
Poinsett 34.59% 2,742 61.84% 4,903 3.57% 283 7,928
Polk 25.48% 1,957 71.25% 5,473 3.27% 251 7,681
Pope 27.18% 6,002 70.51% 15,568 2.31% 509 22,079
Prairie 31.00% 1,048 65.75% 2,223 3.25% 110 3,381
Pulaski 55.07% 88,854 43.52% 70,212 1.41% 2,277 161,343
Randolph 39.07% 2,469 57.21% 3,615 3.72% 235 6,319
Saline 28.43% 12,695 69.38% 30,981 2.19% 977 44,653
Scott 26.36% 1,053 69.86% 2,791 3.78% 151 3,995
Searcy 24.98% 961 70.86% 2,726 4.16% 160 3,847
Sebastian 31.64% 13,673 66.27% 28,637 2.09% 902 43,212
Sevier 28.19% 1,291 68.23% 3,125 3.58% 164 4,580
Sharp 33.59% 2,436 62.53% 4,535 3.87% 281 7,252
St. Francis 57.72% 5,486 41.21% 3,917 1.07% 102 9,505
Stone 30.02% 1,598 66.38% 3,534 3.61% 192 5,324
Union 36.03% 6,190 62.15% 10,677 1.82% 312 17,179
Van Buren 32.09% 2,151 63.79% 4,276 4.12% 276 6,703
Washington 42.44% 29,021 55.52% 37,963 2.04% 1,396 68,380
White 24.97% 6,732 72.22% 19,467 2.8% 756 26,955
Woodruff 51.14% 1,412 43.68% 1,206 5.18% 143 2,761
Yell 33.18% 2,003 63.09% 3,808 3.73% 225 6,036

ElectorsEdit

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[25]

  1. Jim Burnett
  2. Reta Hamilton
  3. Rose Bryant Jones
  4. Phyllis Kincannon
  5. Steve Lux
  6. Kermit Parks

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Arkansas Swing 2008". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2013-10-27.
  2. ^ "2008 Election Statistics". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2019-05-04.
  3. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". Dcpoliticalreport.com. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  4. ^ "Presidential | The Cook Political Report". Cookpolitical.com. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  5. ^ Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ "President, Senate, House Updated Daily". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  7. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  8. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  9. ^ "Electoral Map". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  10. ^ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  11. ^ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  13. ^ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  14. ^ "roadto270". Hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  15. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". Rasmussenreports.com. 2008-11-03. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  16. ^ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
  17. ^ "Alabama: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
  18. ^ "Map: Campaign money race - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ^ [1] Archived January 18, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  20. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  21. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arkansas". Retrieved 2008-12-17.
  23. ^ "Official General Election Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-12-12.
  24. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  25. ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved 2012-07-26.

See alsoEdit