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2018 United States Senate election in Vermont

The 2018 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, U.S. House election, and other state and local elections. Incumbent independent Senator Bernie Sanders was re-elected to a third term.[1] The primaries were held on August 14.[2]

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018

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Turnout55.57%
  Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg LawrenceZupan (cropped).jpg
Nominee Bernie Sanders Lawrence Zupan
Party Independent Republican
Popular vote 183,649 74,815
Percentage 67.4% 27.5%

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018.svg
County Results
Sanders:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%

U.S. Senator before election

Bernie Sanders
Independent

Elected U.S. Senator

Bernie Sanders
Independent

BackgroundEdit

Two-term independent Senator Bernie Sanders was reelected with 71% of the vote in 2012. Sanders, a former candidate for president in the 2016 election and one of three independent members of Congress, is a self-described democratic socialist.[3][4]

Sanders has caucused with the Democratic Party since taking office in 2007, and he is the Ranking Member of the Budget Committee. He will be 77 years old in 2018. Sanders ran for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. After losing, he announced that he would return to the Senate as an independent,[5] and later stated that he would run for reelection as an independent in 2018.[6]

IndependentsEdit

CandidatesEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Bernie Sanders
Organizations

Democratic primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NomineeEdit

Eliminated in primaryEdit

  • Folasade Adeluola, activist [15]

Not on ballotEdit

  • Jon Svitavsky, homelessness activist[15]

WithdrawnEdit

ResultsEdit

 
Results by county:
  Sanders—>90%
  Sanders—80–90%
Democratic primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bernie Sanders (incumbent) 63,683 94.02%
Democratic Folasade Adeluola 3,766 5.56%
Write-in 281 0.41%
Total votes 67,730 100%

Republican primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NomineeEdit

  • Lawrence Zupan, real estate broker[18] (nominated by party)

Withdrew nominationEdit

  • H. Brooke Paige, former CEO of Remmington News Service

Eliminated in primaryEdit

Did not fileEdit

ResultsEdit

 
Results by county:
  Paige—50–60%
  Paige—40–50%
  Paige—<40%
  Zupan—<40%
  Zupan—40–50%
  Zupan—50–60%
  Zupan—60–70%
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican H. Brooke Paige 9,805 37.47%
Republican Lawrence Zupan 9,383 35.86%
Republican Jasdeep Pannu 4,527 17.30%
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 1,057 4.04%
Write-in 1,394 5.33%
Total votes 26,166 100%

Post-primaryEdit

H. Brooke Paige, who also won the Republican nominations for U.S. House, state Attorney General, state Secretary of State, state Treasurer and state Auditor, withdrew from all but the Secretary of State race on August 24 in order to allow the Vermont Republican Party to name replacement candidates.[23] The Vermont Republican Party picked Lawrence Zupan, who came in 2nd place in the primary, to be the Republican nominee.[24]

General electionEdit

Lawrence Zupan

PredictionsEdit

Source Ranking As of
CNN[25] Solid D (Sanders) July 12, 2018
Fox News[26] Likely* D (Sanders) July 9, 2018
RealClearPolitics[27] Safe I (Sanders) June 6, 2018
The Cook Political Report[28] Solid I (Sanders) October 11, 2017
Inside Elections[29] Solid I (Sanders) September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Safe I (Sanders) September 27, 2017

*Highest rating given

PollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bernie
Sanders (I)
Lawrence
Zupan (R)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing October 30 – November 1, 2018 885 ± 3.3% 66% 30% 4%
Braun Research October 5–14, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 60% 19% 7%[31] 16%
Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party) September 23–26, 2018 406 ± 4.9% 75% 20%

ResultsEdit

Sanders won re-election with 67.3% of the vote against eight other candidates.[32]

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Independent Bernie Sanders (incumbent) 183,649 67.44% -3.56%
Republican Lawrence Zupan 74,815 27.47% +2.57%
Independent Brad J. Peacock 3,665 1.35% N/A
Independent Russell Beste 2,763 1.02% N/A
Independent Edward S. Gilbert, Jr. 2,244 0.82% N/A
Independent Folasade Adeluola 1,979 0.73% N/A
Liberty Union Reid Kane 1,171 0.43% -0.43%
Independent Jon Svitavsky 1,130 0.42% N/A
Independent Bruce Busa 914 0.34% N/A
Write-in 294 0.11% N/A
Total votes 272,330 100% N/A
Independent hold

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Dobbs, Taylor. "Bernie Sanders to Seek Reelection to U.S. Senate". Seven Days. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  2. ^ Ember, Sydney (August 16, 2018). "Vermont Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  3. ^ Lisa Lerer (July 16, 2009). "Where's the outrage over AIG bonuses?". The Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2010.
  4. ^ Michael Powell (November 6, 2006). "Exceedingly Social But Doesn't Like Parties". Retrieved November 26, 2012.
  5. ^ Nicholas, Peter (July 26, 2016). "Bernie Sanders to Return to Senate as an Independent". Retrieved November 12, 2017.
  6. ^ a b Thomsen, Jacqueline (October 22, 2017). "Sanders to run as an independent in 2018". TheHill. Retrieved November 12, 2017.
  7. ^ Madigan, Cherise (January 7, 2018). "Newcomer Brad Peacock launches bid for Senate". The Bennington Banner. Retrieved May 21, 2018.
  8. ^ Hagen, Lisa (January 20, 2017). "Major progressive group unveils first 2018 Senate endorsements". The Hill. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
  9. ^ Kampeas, Ron (October 19, 2018). "Jewish candidates in the 2018 congressional elections: The Senate". Heritage Florida Jewish News. Miami. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  10. ^ Stewart, Brian (August 1, 2017). "MoveOn Endorses Six Senators' Re-Election Bids, Backing 'Health Care Heroes' for Helping Lead Effort to Stop Trumpcare From Becoming Law, Embracing Progressive Policies in Trump Era". MoveOn.org. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
  11. ^ Nihart, Alison (July 17, 2018). "RAD's First Crop of Endorsed Candidates for 2018". Rights and Democracy. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
  12. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
  13. ^ "Bernie Sanders". Our Revolution. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  14. ^ "Sanders to run as a Democrat — but not accept nomination". POLITICO. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  15. ^ a b Hirschfield, Peter (July 6, 2017). "Little-Known Challengers Seek To Unseat Bernie Sanders In 2018". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved July 7, 2017.
  16. ^ Sainato, Michael (July 7, 2017). "Bitter Clinton Supporters Try to Unseat Bernie Sanders in Senate Race". Observer. Retrieved May 3, 2018.
  17. ^ a b Final Canvass
  18. ^ Zupan, Lawrence (July 30, 2018). "Letter: Zupan makes case for GOP senate nomination". Manchester Journal.
  19. ^ Epp, Henry (August 3, 2018). "Campaign 2018: Rocky De La Fuente Running In Multiple US Senate Primaries, Including Vt". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved August 7, 2018.
  20. ^ McCullum, April (March 23, 2018). "Sen. Bernie Sanders' seat attracts 4 newcomer candidates". Burlington Free Press. Burlington, Vermont. Retrieved May 3, 2018.
  21. ^ Galloway, Anne (June 1, 2018). "Incumbents in top slots face little competition in 2018 primary". VTDigger. Retrieved June 2, 2018.
  22. ^ a b Gregg, John P. (April 27, 2017). "Primary Source: Looking at the Sanders Juggernaut". Valley News. Retrieved April 27, 2017.
  23. ^ Meyn, Colin (August 24, 2018). "Republicans on the clock after Paige withdraws from five statewide races". VTDigger.
  24. ^ Young, Taylor. "Vt. GOP picks candidates for 5 open slots". WCAX-TV. Gray Digital Media. Retrieved August 30, 2018.
  25. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  26. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  27. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  28. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  29. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  30. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  31. ^ Russell Beste (I), Bruce Busa (I), Reid Kane (LU), and Brad Peacock (I) with 1%; Folasade Adeluola and Jon Svitavsky with 0%; none/write in/other with 3%
  32. ^ Vermont Secretary of State (November 2018). "Vermont electoral results, 2018" (PDF). State of Vermont.

External linksEdit