Talk:Vaccine trial

Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment

This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 1 September 2021 and 15 December 2021. Further details are available on the course page. Student editor(s): MBhuttor.

Above undated message substituted from Template:Dashboard.wikiedu.org assignment by PrimeBOT (talk) 12:13, 17 January 2022 (UTC)

Success for each phase?

I was a bit surprised to see there's no information about the general transition rates from Phase I/II, Phase II/III, III/approved, and then approved/phase IV trials.

Like, for every 1000 vaccines/drugs in phase 1 trial, how many go on to phase 2? In phase 2, how many go on to phase 3? etc.

A quick google search came up with nothing, so I figured I'd ask around here since you would know where to find that information. Interest in the article will be high during the pandemic, and I feel that's something many will wonder about. Headbomb {t · c · p · b} 21:26, 26 May 2020 (UTC)

Yes, and I'm also curious about the negative rate? e.g. how often does phase III find that not only the candidate not work but it is also harmful? SuaveLion21 (talk) 21:05, 14 August 2020 (UTC)

Headbomb, I wonder if the problem is that there aren't 1000 vaccines going into Phase 1 trials. For non-vaccines, the rates vary over time, by type of drug (biologics have better success rates these days than small-molecule drugs), type of disease (some diseases are just hard), etc., but you could estimate that if you start a Phase 1 trial, then you have approximately a 10% chance of being allowed to sell the drug. WhatamIdoing (talk) 22:17, 14 August 2020 (UTC)

Anyone have thoughts about using some of the data in this source for success rates? https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845 It looks to cover 15 years worth of trial data. Jiltedsquirrel (talk) 04:43, 12 December 2022 (UTC)