Talk:Opinion polling for the 2020 Irish general election

Independents4Change

Tommy Broughan, the grouping's second last TD, has retired, though they are standing candidates in Dublin Fingal and Wexford, and Joan Collins is still a member. Culloty82 (talk) 14:45, 22 January 2020 (UTC)

@Culloty82: I looked at her website back then and just now and she has not airbrushed I4C off it in the last week. She is technically party leader as well. Mind you so is Séamus Healy of the WUA in Tipp. Wikimucker (talk) 13:39, 29 January 2020 (UTC)

References

Red C poll

Regarding the Red C poll graph, a new poll came out showing FF ahead of FG but the graph hasn't been updated. — Preceding unsigned comment added by LeeIaccoca1992 (talk • contribs) 20:51, 30 January 2020 (UTC)

Updated now. Apologies - there were... distractions... when this should have been updated. Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 13:48, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

And updated again with the latest Red C poll. Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 19:03, 2 February 2020 (UTC)

Panelbase poll

I'm not familiar with Panelbase, and from what people have been saying, it was online only. Should it be included (with better sourcing)? Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 13:47, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Seems to be a UK-based membership-only market-research company, offering cash rewards for participation. So, not in any way like Red C, B&A, IPSOS, or even Ireland Thinks. Hmm. I'm leaning against inclusion. Wikimucker, 2a00:23c6:ae82:1101:f4ab:187:7aef:81b9, Bondegezou, Karma1998, CaneFluteMan, Spleodrach, thoughts? Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 14:03, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

They're a reputable polling organisation with a history of polling in the UK (see many polls by them at Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election). I'd include them here too. An online panel approach with awards is used by multiple companies to produce polls that reliable sources recognise as valid. Bondegezou (talk) 14:11, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

My personal opinion is that their sampling controls are not the best and that only stupid people willingly sign up for online or telephone polls anyway, which then leads to a bias within the sampled data towards the stupid . A bias towards the stupid would also explain why S-PBP performs better in this poll than in any poll in the entire history of Ireland.

But I cannot prove that so I think they should stay in.

Data cleaning works better in the UK because a full postcode is granular to 50 premises while an Irish eircode routing key covers 1000s of premises. You can spot an anomalous AB voter in a rundown street of ex miners in Yorkshire within the UK 'panel' and control it out. Wikimucker (talk) 14:39, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

I would be interested in seeing what constituency these UK residents would be voting in... because apparently they will only accept registrations from UK residents. Now, UK citizens can vote in Irish general elections - but they need to be living in Ireland to do so. I'm going to try registering with an Irish address and I'll report what happens... Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 14:45, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Yeah - not so much. Can't register with a valid Irish address. Which is... odd. Who participated in this poll? How were they selected? Can they actually vote? Bondegezou, would this change your opinion? Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 14:53, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

They probably acquire data from 'competitions' and 'Win a Prize Instantly' surveys too, Of pertinient interest here is this page. >

" https://www.panelbase.net/Winners " where they encourage the stupid with an opportunity to win a huge plasma TV

The last plasma TV was manufactured in late 2013, by Panasonic. > https://www.cnet.com/news/rip-panasonic-plasma-tvs-reactions-from-industry-experts/

Perhaps I should have said that the Panelbase Panel is self selecting stupid and good luck finding any AB cohort in there too. Wikimucker (talk) 16:12, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Self-selecting and UK based? I dont think it should be included then. Spleodrach (talk) 16:58, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Ah! But they also claim "access to" 5m panellists worldwide > https://www.drg.global/divisions/panelbase/ Wikimucker (talk) 17:12, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Red C poll tonight some time > https://twitter.com/businessposthq Bastun I think that might be the last one for the proposed short GE campaign poll section on the main page, I am easy if you leave Panelbase out of it too. Wikimucker (talk) 19:15, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

If there's another reliable national poll then yes, will include here and on the main article, based on the "mild hybrid consensus". Rugby at Donnybrook may impact on timing. ;-) Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 19:46, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Rumour is we may also need a new background colour, I was going to suggest This! to save us from any more a dem conniptions that erupt out of nowhere. Wikimucker (talk) 19:51, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

Further rumour, there is a B&A poll due too but it does not have any eyepopping data points, both RedC and BandA are embargoed until midnight Wikimucker (talk) 21:42, 1 February 2020 (UTC)

I followed up with my own sources on the missing B&A poll and the information I got was that they started to poll but could not agree on a price, resulting in an economic pivot to Panelbase during the week. What this means for any future B&A polls is uncertain. 13:28, 2 February 2020 (UTC)

That's disappointing. I mean, The Times is a UK paper, they're free of course to use whatever polling companies they want - but one that doesn't seem open to Irish residents is a bit odd... Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 19:43, 2 February 2020 (UTC)

Ah but they have "access to" us @Bastun: https://www.drg.global/divisions/panelbase/ , so that's all right then. Wikimucker (talk) 19:49, 2 February 2020 (UTC)

That, and access to 6=year-olds signed up by parents? Where do I sign up?! Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 20:03, 2 February 2020 (UTC)

You could try, but do appear highly susceptible to being 'influenced' on Instagram and Pinterest like a good lad. Wikimucker (talk) 08:21, 3 February 2020 (UTC)

One graphic just for the anoraks > https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224448364281917440/photo/1 far far too many NPOV issues to ever include it in the article. Wikimucker (talk) 22:01, 3 February 2020 (UTC)

Five-poll moving average

What is the "five-poll moving average" and how does it differ from the from the graphic immediately above it? Do we need both? Bastun^{Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ!} 14:13, 4 February 2020 (UTC)

Probably not, they're very similar anyway. Let's just keep the one with the individual polls as points. --Gbuvn (talk) 15:01, 4 February 2020 (UTC)

I on't like jaggy moving averages anyway, I think a cubic spline graph is more elegant on a trendline. Wikimucker (talk) 15:24, 4 February 2020 (UTC)