Talk:Metallgesellschaft

Oil Speculation or Hedge?

So far as I have read, the oil bets on which Metall.. lost money was not in fact of speculative nature. The company had entered into a sales agreement for the coming 5 years, of refined oil products at fixed prices. This had exposed them to movements in crude oil prices. To hedge their crude oil price exposure, they had to purchase crude oil forwards. However, since 5 year crude oil forwards were not available, the company decided to purchase forwards for the near month and roll their positions every month. In theory, this is a fairly decent hedge. The problem arose because of mark-to-market requirements. When crude oil prices fell, the company was forced to put up margins. They ran out of cash. Even though they had a natural short to match the forward contract, the lack of immediate cash to cover margin requirements forced them to close out their positions much earlier locking their losses.

parijat (talk) 05:06, 23 September 2009 (UTC)

Maybe this isn't the whole story. Following are useful links that could be used by someone writing about the whole oil speculation affair:

• Re-Examining the Metallgesellschaft Affair
• Hedging oil price risk: lessons from metallgesellschaft

parijat (talk) 05:21, 23 September 2009 (UTC)

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