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Opinion polling for the 2010 Philippine presidential election

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Opinion polling (popularly known as surveys in the Philippines) for the 2010 Philippine presidential election is managed by two major polling firms: Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, and several minor polling firms. The polling firms conducted surveys both prior and after the deadline for filing of certificates of candidacies on December 1, 2009.

Post-filing

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Note: Tables only include confirmed candidates by the COMELEC.

The following are results of surveys taken after the last day of filing of certificates of candidacies by the candidates (December 1).

Scores in bold indicate first place, scores in italics are within the margin of error of first place.

Presidential election

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Acosta
KBL 		Aquino
LP 		De los Reyes
AKP 		Estrada
PMP 		Gordon
B-BAYAN 		Madrigal
Ind. 		Perlas
Ind. 		Teodoro
LKS-KAM 		Villanueva
BPP 		Villar
NP 		Others/Undecided
2010
Election results May 9 36,139,102 N/A — 42.08 0.12 26.25 1.39 0.13 0.15 11.33 3.12 15.42 N/A
SWS[1] Exit poll 52,573 ±1% — 43.34 0.15 26.38 1.40 0.23 0.13 10.25 3.40 14.73 —
SWS[2] May 2–3 2,400 ±2% 0 42 0.3 20 2 0.2 0.1 9 3 19 6
StratPOLLS[3] Apr. 27–May 2 1,500 — — 45.2 0.2 22.2 1.5 0.2 0.6 10.1 3 15.1 —
The Center[4] Apr. 26–May 2 2,400 ±2.8% — 29 — 18 — — — 20 — 25 —
Manila Standard Today[5] Apr. 25–27 2,500 ±2% — 38 0.1 22 2 0.4 0.2 9 3 20 6
Pulse Asia[6] Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% — 39 0.2 20 2 0.1 0.3 7 3 20 9
Manila Standard Today[7] Apr. 18–20 2,500 ±2% — 38 — 19 1 — — 9 2 23 6
SWS[8] Apr. 16–19 2,400 ±2% 0 38 0.2 17 2 0.3 0.2 9 2 26 6
Pulse Asia[9] Mar. 21–28 3,000 ±2% 0.08 37 0.2 18 2 0.1 0.3 7 2 25 9
SWS[10] Mar. 19–22 2,100 ±2.2% — 37 0.3 19 3 0.04 0.1 6 2 28 4.56
The Center[11] Mar. 3–10 2,400 ±2.8% — 26 0.5 17 9 0 0 14 2 28 —
SWS[12] Feb. 24–28 2,100 ±2.2% 0.4 36 0.1 15 2 0.1 0.2 6 3 34 4
Pulse Asia[13] Feb. 21–25 1,800 ±2% 0.04 36 0 18 1 0.3 0.2 7 2 29 6
The Center[14] Feb. 1–8 1,800 ±2.8% — 27 — 17 8 — — 14 3 27 —
TNS[15] Jan. 28–Feb. 3 3,000 ±—% — 41.54 — 11.66 1.7 0.22 — 5.21 2 30.63 —
Pulse Asia[16] Jan. 22–26 1,800 ±2% 0.2 37 0.3 12 1 0.5 0.05 5 2 35 6
SWS[17] Jan. 21–24 2,100 ±2% 0.3 42 0.2 13 2 0.4 0.04 4 2 35 2
StratPOLLS[18] Jan. 16–22 2,400 ±2.2% — 36 0.25 15 5 1 — 11 4 26 —
2009
SWS[19] Dec. 27–28 2,100 ±2.2% — 44 0.4 15 0.5 0.4 — 5 1 33 1
Pulse Asia[20] Dec. 8–10 1,800 ±2% — 45 — 19 1 — — 5 1 23 5[p 1]
SWS[21] Dec. 5–10 2,100 ±2.2% — 46.2 0.1 16.0 1.1 0.2 0.03 4.6 1.1 27.0 3.7
The Center[22] Dec. 2–6 1,200 ±2.8% — 31 0.25 19 5 0.25 — 10 3 24 7.5

Vice presidential election

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
PDP-Laban 		Chipeco
AK 		Fernando
V-VNP 		Legarda
NPC 		Manzano
LKS-KAM 		Roxas
LP 		Sonza
KBL 		Yasay
BPP 		Others Undecided
2010
Election results May 9 35,165,531 N/A 41.65 0.15 2.89 12.21 2.30 39.58 0.18 1.04 N/A
SWS[1] Exit poll 52,573 ±1% 42.52 0.43 2.92 11.51 1.81 39.17 0.20 1.43 —
SWS[23] May 2–3 2,400 ±2% 37.2 0.2 4 12 3 37 0.3 1 6
StratPOLLS[3] Apr. 27–May 2 1,500 — 37.8 0.2 2.7 13.1 3.5 40.1 0.2 1.2 —
The Center[24] Apr. 26–May 2 2,400 ±2.8% 25.0 — — 29.0 — 34.0 — — —
Manila Standard Today[25] Apr. 25–27 2,500 ±2% 28 — 2 20 3 38 — — 9
Pulse Asia[6] Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% 28 0.05 3 20 3 37 0.03 1 9
Manila Standard Today[26] Apr. 18–20 2,500 ±2% 22 — 3 23 2 41 — — 9
SWS[27] Apr. 16–19 2,400 ±2% 25 0.3 3 24 2 39 0.4 1 5
Pulse Asia[9] Mar. 21–28 3,000 ±2% 19 0.1 3 23 2 43 0.5 1 9
SWS[28] Mar. 19–22 2,100 ±2.2% 21 0.4 3 25 3 42 0.3 1 5
SWS[12] Feb. 24–28 2,100 ±2.2% 17 0.4 3 28 2 45 1 0.4 — 3
Pulse Asia[13] Feb. 21–25 1,800 ±2% 15 0.1 4 27 2 43 1 1 7
Pulse Asia[16] Jan. 22–26 1,800 ±2% 13 0.07 2 28 2 47 0.2 1 7
SWS[17] Jan. 21–24 2,100 ±2% 16 0.2 2 28 2 49 0.3 0.4 2
StratPOLLS[18] Jan. 16–22 2,400 ±2.2% 11 2 7 25 5 47 1 1 —
2009
SWS[19] Dec. 27–28 2,100 ±2.2% 14.0 0.04 3.0 31.0 2.0 47.0 0.3 0.2 2.4
Pulse Asia[20] Dec. 8–10 1,800 ±2% 14 — 2 37 2 39 — — 1 4
SWS[21] Dec. 5–10 2,100 ±2.2% 10.2 0.0 1.8 32.0 2.6 43.3 0.3 0.1 9.7
The Center[22] Dec. 2–6 1,200 ±2.8% 16.0 — 8.0 28.0 3.0 32.0 0.25 0.37 — —

Notes:

  1. ^ 1% picked "others" while 4% picked none/refused/undecided.

Pre-filing

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The following are survey results before the deadline of filing of certificates of candidacy.

Note: Figures assigned with "–" refers that the person either wasn't included among the choices or failed to crack the top positions in the poll.

Pulse Asia

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Pulse Asia: Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today and they were presidential candidates?
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE De Castro
Ind. 		Jo. Estrada
PMP 		Legarda
NPC 		Escudero
Ind. 		Roxas
LP 		Lacson
UNO 		Villar
NP 		Fernando
V-VNP 		Binay
PDP-Laban 		Villanueva
BPP 		Gordon
V-VNP 		Teodoro
Lakas-K-C 		Puno
Lakas-K-C 		Others No answer / refused to answer / undecided
Pulse Asia[29] May 4–17, 2009 1,200 ±3% 18 15 7 17 13 4 14 0.3 4 0.4 1 1 1
2.5%
Pangilinan (Ind): 1%
Velarde (Ind): 0.3%
Panlilio (Lib): 0.2%
Others: 1%
 4
Pulse Asia[30] Oct 14–27, 2008 1,200 ±3% 18 17 13 15 6 7 17 1 1 1 – – – – –
Pulse Asia[31] July 1–14, 2008 1,200 ±3% 22 16 14 14 8 5 12 1 2 – – – 0.2 – –
Pulse Asia[32] Feb 2–Mar 8, 2008 1,200 ±3% 21.5 – 17.5 13 10.5 9.9 9.3 1.4 1.2 – 0.7 0.3 –
7.2%
Ji. Estrada (PMP): 3.3%
Trillanes (UNO): 3%
Esperon (Ind): 0.4%
Belmonte (Lib): 0.3%
Ermita (Lakas-K-C): 0.1%
Meloto (Ind): 0.1%
 6.8

Notes:

  • Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
  • Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages

Social Weather Stations

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Social Weather Stations: Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is only up to the year 2010, and there will be an election for President in May 2010. Who in your opinion are the good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President?
Person Sep '07[33] Dec '07[33] Mar '08 Jun '08 Nov '08[34] Dec '08[35] Mar '09[36] Jun '09[37] Sep '09[38]
Aquino, Benigno III -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 60%
Cayetano, Alan Peter 1% 3% -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Binay, Jejomar -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% 4% 12%
De Castro, Noli 25% 30% 35% 31% 29% 31% 27% 19% 8%
Estrada, Joseph 5% 9% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% 25% 18%
Escudero, Francis 13% 15% 19% 14% 16% 19% 23% 20% 15%
Estrada, Jinggoy 1% 2% -- -- 1% -- 1% -- --
Fernando, Bayani 5% 9% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% -- 1%
Gordon, Richard -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% 4% 9%
Lacson, Panfilo 18% 13% 12% 16% 17% 14% 14% 7% 2%
Legarda, Loren 44% 23% 30% 26% 26% 28% 25% 15% 5%
Pangilinan, Francis 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% -- --
Ramon Revilla -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% -- --
Roxas, Mar 9% 20% 16% 13% 13% 10% 15% 20% 12%
Santiago, Miriam 3% 4% -- -- 1% 1% 4% 13% 17%
Trillanes, Antonio IV 4% 3% -- -- 1% 1% -- -- --
Villar, Manny 18% 27% 17% 25% 28% 27% 26% 33% 37%
Don't know 12% 12% 11% 15% 9% 7% 13% 7% 6%
Not sure/None 6% 5% 5% 8% 9% 12% 7% 18% 4%

Notes:[39][40]

  • Participants were allowed to choose up to three persons, hence the numbers would exceed 100%.
  • Responses below 2% were excluded.
  • Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
  • Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages[41]

Controversy

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With the various surveys showing a two-horse race between Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar, other candidates had expressed doubts on the accuracy of the surveys. Presidential candidate Richard Gordon filed a temporary restraining order before the Quezon City Regional Trial Court, to stop Pulse Asia and SWS from releasing results of pre-election surveys. Gordon said that the research groups used false methodologies and that the 2 survey companies are "stealing the people's minds" and preventing voters from carefully choosing their preferred candidates, particularly those running for president."[42]

References

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  1. ^ a b "Only 0.4% separates the TV5-SWS Exit Poll from the final official tally". Archived from the original on 2010-07-07. Retrieved 2010-12-18.
  2. ^ "Aquino pads poll lead". Archived from the original on 2010-05-21.
  3. ^ a b "StratPOLLs: Aquino piles up bigger lead". PhilippineElection2010.Blogspot.com. 2010-05-05. Archived from the original on 2011-07-08. Retrieved 2010-07-13.
  4. ^ "Pre-Election Survey". gmanews.tv. People's Journal. 2010-05-07. Archived from the original on 2012-03-10. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
  5. ^ "Estrada overtakes Villar, negative attacks take toll".
  6. ^ a b "Erap catches up with Villar in Pulse Asia's latest survey". Archived from the original on 2010-06-16.
  7. ^ "Villar continues to slip as Estrada nibbles at margin".
  8. ^ "Noynoy leads by double digits over Villar in new SWS survey".
  9. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's Ulat ng Bayan March 2010 Survey for National Elective Positions". Archived from the original on 2010-07-07.
  10. ^ "Aquino opens up lead versus Villar". bworldonline.com. 2010-03-29. Archived from the original on 2015-09-23. Retrieved 2010-03-30.
  11. ^ "Pre-Election Survey". GMANews.tv. Yahoo! News Philippines. 2010-03-22. Archived from the original on 2010-03-29. Retrieved 2010-03-24.
  12. ^ a b "BusinessWorld-SWS February 24–28, 2010 Pre-Election Survey". sws.org.ph. 2010-03-11. Retrieved 2010-03-20.
  13. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's February 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions". Archived from the original on 2010-06-16.
  14. ^ "The Center Pulso ng Pilipino Pre-Poll Survey". The Center. 2010-03-21. Retrieved 2013-03-25.
  15. ^ "Noynoy regains lead over Villar in new survey".
  16. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's January 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions". Archived from the original on 2010-06-16.
  17. ^ a b "Villar gains ground versus Aquino". bworldonline.com. 2010-02-01. Archived from the original on 2015-09-23. Retrieved 2010-02-01.
  18. ^ a b "Teodoro in double digits but Aquino still leads—poll". inquirer.net. 2010-02-02. Archived from the original on 2010-02-05. Retrieved 2010-02-02.
  19. ^ a b Noynoy still leads, but Villar closing in. 1.10.2010. Philippine Star. retrieved on 01.10.2010.
  20. ^ a b "Pulse Asia's December 2009 Pre-election Survey". Archived from the original on 2010-06-16.
  21. ^ a b "BusinessWorld-SWS December 5–10, 2009 Pre-Election Survey". Archived from the original on 2010-07-07.
  22. ^ a b "Noynoy changes tack as ratings start to plunge". Archived from the original on 2013-07-28. Retrieved 2010-04-09.
  23. ^ "Businessworld: Down to the wire VP race as Binay, Roxas share lead". bworld.com.ph. 2010-05-07. Archived from the original on 2010-05-21. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
  24. ^ "Just remember". philstar.com.
  25. ^ "Binay pulls away from Legarda, has Roxas in sight". manilastandardtoday.com. 2010-05-03. Retrieved 2010-05-03.
  26. ^ ">"Binay statistically tied with Legarda in new poll". manilastandardtoday.com. 2010-04-26. Retrieved 2010-04-26.
  27. ^ ">"QTV: Noynoy has double-digit lead in new SWS survey". gmanews.tv. 2010-04-26. Retrieved 2010-04-26.
  28. ^ "Roxas maintains lead in VP race". bworldonline.com. 2010-03-29. Retrieved 2010-03-30.
  29. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2011-07-16. Retrieved 2010-04-09.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  30. ^ "Pulse Asia: No clear '10 choice". Malaya. Retrieved 2009-01-06.
  31. ^ abs-cbnnews.com, Erap back in public mind for 2010 polls[permanent dead link]
  32. ^ De Castro is top bet for 2010 polls, Inquirer.net
  33. ^ a b Social Weather Stations
  34. ^ "VP de Castro still top presidentiable -- SWS survey". ABS-CBN News.
  35. ^ Survey: De Castro top choice for 2010 Archived 2009-02-20 at the Wayback Machine, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 01/13/2009.
  36. ^ Noli, Villar, Loren, Chiz top SWS survey on Arroyo successor, GMANews.tv
  37. ^ "Second Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey: Villar tops the "best leaders to succeed PGMA in 2010"; Estrada, Escudero, and Roxas gain while de Castro drops". Social Weather Stations. 2009-07-22. Archived from the original on 2009-09-11. Retrieved 2010-04-09.
  38. ^ "Third Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey: Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar top the people's "three best leaders to succeed PGMA in 2010"". Social Weather Stations. 2009-10-14.
  39. ^ SWS: De Castro, 3 others are top 2010 bets[permanent dead link], ABS-CBNNews.com
  40. ^ "SWS Media Release". sws.org.ph.
  41. ^ sws.org, Table 1
  42. ^ "Gordon sues SWS, Pulse Asia over surveys". abs-cbnnews.com. 2010-04-22. Retrieved 2010-04-22.
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