Talk:Tornado outbreak sequence of May 19–27, 2024

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Move to May 24 / future move to May 25 / 26 / 27

Multiple confirmed tornadoes associated with the system over Nebraska on May 23 have been reported with future confirmation / surveys expected from NWS Quad Cities IA / IL near Coal Valley and Illinois City. As well, the SPC is predicting a potentially significant outbreak on the day of May 25, with a MDT risk being issued and the 1730z update explicitly stating that "[o]nly reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time." while also stating May 25 could be a historic outbreak given the favorable environment, as well as risks continuing into Day 3 / 4 (May 26/27). (I understand it's not the policy to move a page for a predicted outbreak until it's happened, but if and when it does happen it should be moved.) GeorgeMemulous (talk) 22:00, 24 May 2024 (UTC)

It really depends on how much activity tomorrow and the 26th produce. Should they overperform on their own (i.e, if say we get multiple violent tornadoes and a 24-hr count over 75 or so) I might be in more favor of creating a separate page for them instead of grouping into the sequence and leaving the 24th as a break period between outbreaks (the 23rd was associated with the remains of the 21st outbreak or at least its southern tail end). If it is not too different from the previous days I would be in favor of grouping those here. MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 22:29, 24 May 2024 (UTC)

If we're going to split the article, shouldn't we split it at May 20? Tornado activity that day was limited to landspouts. GeorgeMemulous (talk) 23:23, 24 May 2024 (UTC)

That might work. Not sure what the threshold is for moving it to May 24th. We just had a tornado emergency in Texas. TornadoLGS (talk) 00:36, 25 May 2024 (UTC)

There were tornadoes in Illinois earlier (with damage done), plus broadcast media confirmed a tornado in North Dakota. Once a survey comes out, we can move it to the 24th and if/when stuff occurs on the 25th/26th, we can just expand it at that point. Long outbreak sequence articles have been done in the past (Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 is an example of a 14-day one), so no reason to not just continue expanding it as long as we have tornadoes each day. The Weather Event Writer (Talk Page) 01:27, 25 May 2024 (UTC)

Scratch that. We need to add May 28th to the list. The NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DVD sized hail (5 inches in diameter) which was the first time that the NWS issued a warning for hail that large ANYWHERE in the United States. West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 02:15, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

Don't think that's relevant; large hail is not exactly indicative of tornado activity, especially here. If that potentially violent tornado a few days later hit Midland / Odessa directly, I'd consider that worthy of adding to the article. Plus, that area of Texas gets large hail all the time (a new record of 7 inch hail, the largest in the state, was set 3 days ago).

On the 28th, there were only 2 tornado reports; one was a landspout, and the other produced no damage. Hardly worthy of extending the article. GeorgeMemulous (talk) 12:01, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

It's still a tornado though. With that logic, you could have a million EF0 tornadoes that wouldn't count. While I agree that hail is not tornadic, the tornado in Eldorado was still part of the sequence. WxTrinity (talk to me!) 16:15, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

And it was also from the same storm system and trough (I may be wrong, though.) It's a continuation of the outbreak. WxTrinity (talk to me!) 16:15, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

Well there should be a mention of it somewhere. Maybe in a section on Weather in 2024? West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 16:58, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

Or maybe in a list of most notable hailstorms article/section? West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 17:00, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

This is based on existing Wikipedia precedent; the Tornado outbreak of May 6–10, 2024 ended at the 10th, despite tornados occuring multiple days before and after. For outbreak sequences, the one in May 2019 could have extended through June 9 by this logic. The last major outbreak of our sequence was on the 27th, and that's where we have it capped. GeorgeMemulous (talk) 17:41, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

Yeah, now that you explain it like that it makes more sense. WxTrinity (talk to me!) 17:43, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

Well the Texas hailstorm at least needs to be in the list of costly hailstorms because it was notable for the precedent set by the NWS. West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 19:54, 10 June 2024 (UTC)

Pryor

it's actually Pryor Creek, not Pryor Weather article creator (talk) 18:42, 26 May 2024 (UTC)

Sources are calling it Pryor, so we should go with WP:COMMONNAME. ChessEric 19:34, 7 June 2024 (UTC)

Did the outbreak continue into the 28th?

There was a confirmed tornado in Eldorado, OK on May 28. Does this count as part of the sequence (hence continuing it into the 28th), or is this tornado unrelated? MemeGod ._. (My talk page, my contributions and my creations!) 14:07, 29 May 2024 (UTC)

As a matter of fact @WxTrinity; it seems like it did.

The NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DVD sized hail on May 28th. First time on record that they issued a warning for hailstones that big. I didn’t even know that the WarnGen software supported dissemination of warnings for 5-inch hail until today. There are sources that I can back up here. Iowa Environmental Mesonet archived the warning and keeps records back to 2005 (and in some cases back to the ‘80s and ‘90s.), there was also an article from the Washington Post about it.

I’ll list the text of the warning (which should go on Wikisource in my opinion):

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL HOCKLEY COUNTY...

At 632 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of Levelland, moving southeast at 20 mph. Giant hail to 5 inches in diameter was reported with this storm northwest of Levelland.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR LEVELLAND AND SMYER!

HAZARD...DVD size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT... People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 21:49, 3 June 2024 (UTC)

Daily Statistics

Once all of the tornadoes from this outbreak are confirmed, should we consider the addition of a "Daily Statistics" table for this article? There doesn't seem to be any official guidelines for when such a table can be added to tornado outbreaks, but I feel that an event with over 10 EF3 tornadoes spanning over a week may warrant one.

Of course, this should wait until the remaining EF? are confirmed (approaching 190–200 tornadoes), but I am curious about what the users think.

Additionally, I would be more than welcome to add "Daily Statistics" tables to other articles, but only if a standard for adding them is agreed upon. There are several older articles that could benefit from having them, and other articles that likely should not qualify for them. 174.171.152.215 (talk) 17:10, 29 May 2024 (UTC)

I did that on the list page. ChessEric 19:35, 7 June 2024 (UTC)

Derecho?

There were multiple likely derechos that happened during this time period. None of the storm complexes are even mentioned.

I experienced one of the derechos back on Sunday afternoon with high winds, trash cans being blown in the road (or even going missing altogether); it traveled at least 600 miles from where I started tracking it when it was near Paducah (it probably traveled further) to where it dissipated near Washington, DC.

My question to the more experienced Wikipedians is why is the derecho aspect of this NOT mentioned? West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 17:52, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

I’m not exactly sure, but I know that the derechos that did happen were relatively minor (may be wrong). They should definitely be mentioned, though. WxTrinity :3 (My talk page, my contributions and my creations!) 17:58, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

If they are mentioned, they should probably be covered in the “non-tornado impacts” section, as wind damage is mainly non-tornadic. WxTrinity :3 (My talk page, my contributions and my creations!) 18:00, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

If there are reliable sources covering this aspect, yes they should be. Otherwise, we shouldn't. Stefen Tower_{s among the rest!} ^{Gab • Gruntwerk} 18:00, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

Well we need to LOOK 👀! West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 18:02, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

I’ll get to it in a sec :D WxTrinity :3 (My talk page, my contributions and my creations!) 18:03, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

But why on earth is the straight line winds not mentioned in the non-tornadic section. Especially the effects around Louisville and out into western Kentucky. There were counties out towards Paducah and Hopkinsville where most of the county was without power. There were well over 40k power outages in the Louisville Metro area. Tons of tree damage. Why is that not mentioned? Or barely mentioned? West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 18:18, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

Not sure. I know that areas near Marietta got it pretty bad as well. WxTrinity :3 (My talk page, my contributions and my creations!) 18:28, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

Marietta, Oklahoma? Might I ask how we went from talking about West Virginia and Kentucky to talking about Oklahoma? West Virginia WXeditor (talk) 18:31, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

Honestly, I thought that we were talking about areas affected. Best to stay on topic, because this is turning into a forum. WxTrinity :3 (My talk page, my contributions and my creations!) 19:13, 30 May 2024 (UTC)

We have added some of the derecho impacts now. ChessEric 19:36, 7 June 2024 (UTC)

Greenfield wind speed

In the DAT the maximum wind speed of the tornado is 180 mph, but in the article it's 175-185 mph. Should we keep it at that or revise it to 180 mph? Poodle23 (talk) 20:05, 17 June 2024 (UTC)