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2019 Saxony state election

State elections in Saxony were held on 1 September 2019, as required by the state constitution. Incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer was standing for reelection.[1]

2019 Saxony state election

← 2014 1 September 2019 2024 →

All 119 seats of the Landtag of Saxony
60 seats needed for a majority
Turnout66.5% Increase 17.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–166.jpg 2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–079.jpg 2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–189.jpg
Leader Michael Kretschmer Jörg Urban Rico Gebhardt
Party CDU AfD Left
Last election 59 seats, 39.4% 14 seats, 9.7% 27 seats, 18.9%
Seats won 45 38 14
Seat change Decrease14 Increase24 Decrease13
Popular vote 695,560 595,671 224,354
Percentage 32.1% 27.5% 10.4%
Swing Decrease7.3 pp Increase17.7 pp Decrease8.5 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party
  2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–092.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–111.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–148.jpg
Leader Katja Meier
& Wolfram Günther
Martin Dulig
Party Green SPD
Last election 8 seats, 5.7% 18 seats, 12.4%
Seats won 12 10
Seat change Increase4 Decrease8
Popular vote 187,015 167,289
Percentage 8.6% 7.7%
Swing Increase2.9 pp Decrease4.6 pp

Sachsen Landtagswahlkarte 2019.svg
A map showing the winning party of each constituency seat

Minister-President before election

Michael Kretschmer
CDU

Minister-President after election

TBD

BackgroundEdit

Saxony last held state elections in August 2014. The CDU won those elections with 40% of the vote,[2] and entered into a coalition with the SPD. Since then, Saxony has emerged as a stronghold of the AfD, which achieved the highest percentage of the state's votes both in the 2017 federal elections and in the 2019 EU election in Germany.[3]

On May 2019, Saxony's electoral commission ruled that more than half of the AFD's candidate list was invalid.[4] However, in July 2019, a court in the eastern German state handed a partial victory to the AfD after partly overturning the state electoral committee's decision to restrict the party's number of candidates.[5]

Opinion pollsEdit

Graphical summaryEdit

 

Vote shareEdit

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Linke SPD AfD Grüne NPD FDP Others Lead
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 32.1 10.4 7.7 27.5 8.6 0.6 4.5 8.6 4.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2019 1,657 32 14 8.5 24.5 11 5 5 7.5
Civey 4–28 Aug 2019 5,015 29.0 15.0 8.9 24.9 10.9 5.7 5.6 4.1
INSA 19–26 Aug 2019 1,018 29 15 8 25 11 5 7 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2019 1,068 31 14 9 25 10 5 6 6
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2019 1,002 30 16 7 24 11 5 7 6
Civey 23 Jul–20 Aug 2019 5,016 28.0 15.0 8.5 25.2 11.4 5.5 6.4 2.8
FB Czaplicki 8–15 Aug 2019 700 28.0 16.0 8.0 26.0 13.0 5.0 4.0 2
INSA 22–31 Jul 2019 1,011 28 16 8 25 12 5 6 3
Civey 27 Jun–25 Jul 2019 5,019 27.1 15.0 8.7 25.4 10.8 5.6 7.4 1.7
Infratest dimap 24–29 Jun 2019 1,000 26 15 9 26 12 5 7 Tie
Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 5,001 29.7 16.6 10.3 23.5 10.6 4.6 4.7 6.2
INSA 4–11 Jun 2019 1,057 24 16 7 25 16 6 6 1
FB Czaplicki 29 May–4 Jun 2019 703 24 15 8 24 14 6 9 Tie
2019 European election 26 May 2019 23.0 11.7 8.6 25.3 10.3 0.8 4.7 15.6 2.3
INSA 17–24 Apr 2019 1,000 28 16 10 26 9 6 5 2
Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 3,852 29.4 17.4 11.6 20.8 9.9 6.1 4.8 8.6
INSA 7–18 Mar 2019 1,028 28 17 9 25 9 6 6 3
FB Czaplicki 4–13 Mar 2019 703 27 17 11 18 16 5 6 9
INSA 10–17 Dec 2018 1,000 29 18 10 25 9 6 3 4
IM Field 2–14 Nov 2018 1,002 29 17 11 24 8 6 5 5
INSA 27–30 Aug 2018 1,040 28 18 11 25 7 7 4 3
uniQma 20–28 Aug 2018 703 28.9 18.6 11.4 23.9 6.8 5.6 4.5 5.0
Infratest dimap 20–25 Aug 2018 1,000 30 18 11 25 6 5 5 5
INSA 4–11 Jun 2018 1,009 32 19 9 24 6 6 4 8
IM Field 16 Nov–2 Dec 2017 1,000 33 18 12 23 4 7 3 10
IM Field 23–26 Oct 2017 1,005 31 17 14 21 4 7 5 10
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 26.9 16.1 10.5 27.0 4.6 1.1 8.2 5.6 0.2
Infratest dimap 12–17 Jun 2017 1,000 41 15 10 21 4 5 4 20
Infratest dimap 15–19 Nov 2016 1,002 34 16 12 25 7 6 9
INSA 19–23 Sep 2016 1,003 37.5 16 13 21.5 6 1.5 2 2.5 16
Infratest dimap 9–14 Sep 2015 1,001 38 17 13 13 7 5 3 4 21
2014 state election 31 Aug 2014 39.4 18.9 12.4 9.7 5.7 4.9 3.8 5.1 20.5

Election resultEdit

Summary of the 1 September 2019 election results[6] for the Landtag of Saxony
 
Party Ideology Votes Votes % (change) Seats (change) Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Christian democracy 695,560 32.1% −7.3pp 45 −14 37.8%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) German nationalism 595,671 27.5% +17.7pp 38 +24 31.9%
The Left (Die Linke) Democratic socialism 224,354 10.4% −8.5pp 14 −13 11.8%
Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen) Green politics 187,015 8.6% +2.9pp 12 +4 10.1%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Social democracy 167,289 7.7% −4.6pp 10 −8 8.4%
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Liberalism 97,438 4.5% +0.7pp 0 ±0 0%
Free Voters Direct democracy 72,897 3.4% +1.8pp 0 ±0 0%
Others 126,233 5.8% −2.7pp 0 ±0 0%
Total 2,166,457 100.0% 119 −7 100.0%
Blank and invalid votes 22,029 1.02
Registered voters / turnout 3,288,643 66.5

Alternative for Germany (AfD) received its highest share of the vote in any state or federal election, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Die Linke both fell to record lows in Saxony. The AfD should have received 39 seats in the Landtag, however due to positions 31-61 being removed from the AfD state list the party failed to allocate a candidate to the final seat, thus the seat remains vacant and only 119 seats remain in the Landtag.

Government formationEdit

Incumbent Minister-President Kretschmer (CDU) is likely to retain his job as his party remains the largest bloc. Kretschmer ruled out working with AfD or leading a minority government during the campaign; as the CDU also rejects working with Die Linke, this leaves as the only realistic possibility the so-called "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens. Such a coalition has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2016.[7] Kretschmer and Green leaders Meier and Günther publicly supported exploratory discussions in the week following the election, and the Greens scheduled a party vote on opening negotiations for 12 October.[8]

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Umfrage-Beben in Sachsen: AfD auf Augenhöhe mit der CDU". merkur.de (in German). 2019-04-27. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
  2. ^ http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2014/landtagswahl-sachsen-2014.html
  3. ^ https://www.dw.com/en/eu-election-afd-surge-in-eastern-germany-sets-up-clash-of-cultures/a-48909859
  4. ^ https://www.politico.eu/article/afd-in-regional-election-administrative-oversight/
  5. ^ https://www.politico.eu/article/german-court-partially-overturns-restrictions-on-far-right-afd-election-list/
  6. ^ [1]
  7. ^ Anzlinger, Jana (2 September 2019). "Landtagswahl: Diese Koalitionen sind möglich". Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German).
  8. ^ "CDU-Landeschef in Sachsen: Kretschmer für Kenia-Koalition". ZDF (in German).

External linksEdit