Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Science/2020 August 30

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August 30

Will social distancing meant to curb COVID-19 cause common cold viruses to go extinct?

COVID-19 spreads better than common cold viruses. If we reduce the R-number for COVID-19, then we should also be reducing the R-number of the other common cold viruses. But because the R-number of these other common cold viruses is lower to begin with, they n umber of people with the common cold should decline exponentially fast. So, will the other common cold viruses go extinct? Count Iblis (talk) 03:26, 30 August 2020 (UTC)

. Basic reproduction number gives 2–6 for COVID-19 and 2-3 for common cold. To be fair, it doesn't try to distinguish different viruses and the source for common cold seems totally crap, but since you asked the question, what are your sources for your fundamental basic assumptions? Nil Einne (talk) 05:55, 30 August 2020 (UTC)

Their going extinct is a very strong demand. For one thing, as you can see, many people make a mockery of the social distancing advice. And, inasmuch as it has a noticeable effect, you can expect even more people to ignore it, so it is not at all clear that the effective reproduction number will go down by enough and long enough to have much effect. Then, there may be zoonotic reservoirs that are not affected at all.  --Lambiam 10:29, 30 August 2020 (UTC)

It should be noted that the expectation that we cause any disease pathogen to go extinct should not even be considered. In all of human history, exactly one global human diseases have been made entirely extinct: smallpox. So, discussions of something as porous and uncontrolled as general "social distancing" causing any disease to go extinct, where the concerted effort of all of humanity has caused exactly one disease to go extinct, well, those sorts of presumptions have no basis in reality. --Jayron32 16:13, 31 August 2020 (UTC)

Correct. Certainly concerted efforts can bring about regional extinction of previously pervasive pathogens, and certainly that is the hope with COVID19 and vaccination. Measles, for example, is extremely contagious and used to be a common childhood illness. Prior to vaccination programs, there were half a million to a million annual cases of measles in the US per year. Following vaccine introduction in the mid-1960s, the annual infection rate dropped extremely quickly, basically never hitting 100,000 annual cases after 1968, and from the 1990s until recent anti-vaxxer caused outbreaks, there were less than 1000 cases per year in the US, and it was essentially functionally extinct here. Aggressive vaccination can lead an extremely contagious pathogen to being something present only as very small background numbers. --OuroborosCobra (talk) 18:48, 31 August 2020 (UTC)

Well, polio may be on the way out - the final eradication is held up mostly by political difficulties in the few states that still have polio cases (and are politically very unstable). But this is only possible for pathogens that have no zoonotic source, and that are relatively stable. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 21:20, 31 August 2020 (UTC)

Why didn't any Atlantic tropical cyclone on record reach 7.1°N? (1851-now)

List of near-Equatorial tropical cyclones shows at least one under 2.9 degrees from the equator in all 4 sides of the Indian Ocean and 2 out of 4 semihemispheres of the Pacific. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 23:18, 30 August 2020 (UTC)

Because it's an exceedingly rare event anywhere in the world, and it should not be expected to happen; where it has happened in other ocean basins has been so rare as to be considered a fluke, and should not be used to extrapolate expectations. --Jayron32 15:24, 31 August 2020 (UTC)