This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2019 European Parliament election in France, which will be held on 26 May 2019.
Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.
Graphical summary
editThe averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below, excluding those conducted on behalf of a political party or movement. The graphs are smoothed weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (with each poll weighted based on recency). Where possible, the scenario without gilets jaunes lists is used.
Voting intentions
editPolls marked with an asterisk (*) were conducted on behalf of a political party. The May 2018 Viavoice poll was conducted for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV). The October 2018 Ifop polls tested two scenarios: one in which Ségolène Royal did not lead the Socialist Party (PS) list (in which the PS received 6%), and the other in which she did (in which it the PS received 7.5%). The December 2018 Ipsos poll was commissioned by La République En Marche! and obtained by Le Journal du Dimanche. The Ifop poll fielded from 3 to 4 December was conducted for Raphaël Glucksmann's movement Place Publique (and included the movement in a union list of the left).
Ifop-Fiducial polls completed after 7 March listed in the table below are "rolling" polls unless otherwise denoted by two asterisks (**).[1] Starting on 15 March, the poll asked specifically about a list consisting of Place Publique and the Socialist Party, as opposed to the PS alone. Until 26 March, the poll continued to ask about a list conducted by the NPA, which later ruled out its participation in the European elections due to its lack of funds.
As in every national vote, several polling firms will release estimations of the results after the closing of ballot boxes, including Harris Interactive.[2]
In 2014, the EELV alone received 8.95% of valid votes; in 2019, the party will run in a common list with the Independent Ecological Alliance (AEI) and Régions et Peuples Solidaires (R&PS), which received 1.12% and 0.34% of the vote in 2014, respectively, for a total of 10.41% of votes in 2014. The PS, which will run in a common list alongside Place Publique, received 13.98% of valid votes in 2014; in 2019, it will also be allied with New Deal, which received 2.90% of the vote in 2014, and Cap21, which received 0.67%; together, the lists received 17.56% of the vote in 2014.
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Abs. | LO | NPA | FI | PCF | PS PP |
G.s | EELV | UÉ | REM MoDem |
UDI | Agir | LR | DLF | RN | LP | UPR | R! | GJ | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harris Interactive | 12–13 Apr 2019 | 1,031 | – | 1% | – | 9.5% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4% | 8% | – | 22.5% | 2% | – | 14% | 4% | 21% | 1% | 2% | – | – | 2% |
1% | – | 9% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4% | 7.5% | – | 22.5% | 2% | – | 14% | 4% | 20.5% | 1% | 2% | – | 2.5% | 1% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 9–12 Apr 2019 | 1,388 | 58% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 13% | 5% | 21.5% | 1.5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
BVA | 10–11 Apr 2019 | 1,402 | 50% | 1.5% | – | 8% | 2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 7% | 1% | 24% | 2% | – | 13.5% | 4% | 20% | 1% | 1% | 1.5% | 3% | 1.5% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 8–11 Apr 2019 | 1,395 | 58.5% | 1% | – | 9% | 3.5% | 5% | 3.5% | 7% | – | 22.5% | 2.5% | – | 13.5% | 5% | 22% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1% | – | 1.5% |
1% | – | 8.5% | 3% | 5.5% | 3% | 7% | – | 22.5% | 2.5% | – | 13.5% | 4.5% | 21.5% | 1.5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 6–10 Apr 2019 | 1,401 | 58.5% | 1% | – | 9% | 3% | 5.5% | 3% | 7% | – | 22.5% | 2.5% | – | 13.5% | 4.5% | 21% | 1.5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 5–9 Apr 2019 | 1,396 | 58% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 22.5% | 3% | – | 13% | 4.5% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 4–8 Apr 2019 | 1,370 | 58% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2.5% | 5% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 23% | 3% | – | 13% | 4.5% | 20.5% | 2.5% | 1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 1% |
Harris Interactive | 5–6 Apr 2019 | 1,051 | 44% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 8% | – | 23% | 2% | – | 13% | 5% | 21% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | – | 2% |
1% | – | 8.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 8% | – | 23% | 2% | – | 12% | 5% | 20% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.5% | 3% | 1.5% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,368 | 58.5% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2% | 5% | 3.5% | 7.5% | – | 23.5% | 2.5% | – | 13% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 3% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 1–4 Apr 2019 | 1,373 | 59% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 23.5% | 2% | – | 13% | 5.5% | 22% | 2.5% | 1% | 1.5% | – | 1.5% |
1% | – | 8% | 2% | 5% | 3.5% | 7.5% | – | 23.5% | 2% | – | 13% | 5.5% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 30 Mar–3 Apr 2019 | 1,370 | 59% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 23% | 1.5% | – | 13% | 5.5% | 21% | 2% | 0.5% | 1% | 3.5% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 29 Mar–2 Apr 2019 | 1,397 | 59% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 3% | 8% | – | 23% | 1.5% | – | 13.5% | 5.5% | 20.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 3.5% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 28 Mar–1 Apr 2019 | 1,370 | 59% | 1% | – | 8.5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 8% | – | 22.5% | 2% | – | 14% | 5.5% | 21% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 3.5% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 26–29 Mar 2019 | 1,366 | 58% | 1% | – | 8% | 2% | 5% | 3.5% | 8.5% | – | 22.5% | 1.5% | – | 14% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 4% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 25–28 Mar 2019 | 1,361 | 58% | 1% | <0.5% | 8% | 2% | 5.5% | 3% | 8.5% | – | 22% | 1.5% | – | 14% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 4% | 1% |
Elabe | 25–27 Mar 2019 | 1,201 | 56% | 0.5% | 7.5% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 9% | – | 22.5% | 3.5% | – | 14% | 3% | 22% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 3% | |
0.5% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 5% | 9% | – | 23% | 3.5% | – | 12.5% | 3.5% | 21% | 1% | 1% | – | 2.5% | 2.5% | |||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 23–27 Mar 2019 | 1,382 | 58.5% | 1% | <0.5% | 8% | 2.5% | 5% | 3% | 8% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 14% | 5% | 20.5% | 1.5% | 1% | 0.5% | 5% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 22–27 Mar 2019 | 1,860 | – | 1% | 0.5% | 8% | 2.5% | 5% | 3.5% | 8.5% | – | 21% | 2% | – | 14.5% | 6% | 21.5% | 1.5% | 1% | 1.5% | – | 2% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 22–26 Mar 2019 | 1,402 | 58% | 1% | 0.5% | 8.5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 8% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 14% | 5% | 20% | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 5% | 1% |
OpinionWay | 20–26 Mar 2019 | 1,889 | 59% | 2% | – | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 7% | – | 23% | 3% | – | 13% | 6% | 23% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 3% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 21–25 Mar 2019 | 1,409 | 58% | 1% | 0.5% | 8.5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 14% | 4.5% | 20% | 0.5% | 2% | 1% | 5.5% | 1% |
Harris Interactive | 22–23 Mar 2019 | 1,068 | 44% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 2.5% | 7% | – | 23% | 2% | – | 13% | 5% | 22% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | – | 2% |
1% | 0.5% | 8% | 1.5% | 7% | 2.5% | 7% | – | 23% | 2% | – | 13% | 5% | 21.5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 19–22 Mar 2019 | 1,390 | 59% | 1% | 0.5% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 23% | 2% | – | 13.5% | 4.5% | 20.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 5% | 1% |
BVA | 20–21 Mar 2019 | 1,398 | 49% | 1.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 8.5% | – | 24% | 1.5% | – | 12% | 5% | 21% | 1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 18–21 Mar 2019 | 1,402 | 59.5% | 1% | 0.5% | 8% | 2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 7.5% | – | 23.5% | 2% | – | 13% | 4.5% | 21% | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 4.5% | 1% |
Ipsos | 15–21 Mar 2019 | 10,049 | 58% | 0.5% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 6.5% | 4% | 8% | – | 23.5% | 2% | – | 12% | 5% | 22% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | – | 2.5% |
0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 6.5% | 4% | 8% | – | 23.5% | 2% | – | 12% | 4.5% | 21% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 16–20 Mar 2019 | 1,413 | 59.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 7.5% | – | 23.5% | 1.5% | – | 13% | 4.5% | 21.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 15–19 Mar 2019 | 1,399 | 59% | 0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 7.5% | – | 23.5% | 1.5% | – | 13% | 4.5% | 20.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 2% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 14–18 Mar 2019 | 1,393 | 59% | 0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 8% | – | 23.5% | 1.5% | – | 13.5% | 4.5% | 20.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 12–15 Mar 2019 | 1,398 | 59% | 0.5% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 2.5% | 8.5% | – | 23.5% | 1.5% | – | 13.5% | 5% | 21% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 4% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 10–14 Mar 2019 | 1,401 | 59% | 0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 8.5% | – | 24% | 1.5% | – | 13.5% | 4.5% | 21% | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1.5% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 9–13 Mar 2019 | 1,384 | 58% | 0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 8.5% | – | 24% | 1.5% | – | 13% | 4.5% | 21.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1.5% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 8–12 Mar 2019 | 1,378 | 58% | 0.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 8% | – | 24.5% | 1.5% | – | 12.5% | 5% | 21.5% | 1% | 1% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 7–11 Mar 2019 | 1,371 | 57.5% | 0.5% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 5.5% | 3% | 8% | – | 25% | 1.5% | – | 12.5% | 5% | 21.5% | 1% | 1% | 1.5% | 3% | 1% |
Harris Interactive | 8–9 Mar 2019 | 1,090 | 44% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 8% | – | 22% | 1% | – | 14% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
2% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 8% | – | 22% | 1% | – | 13% | 5% | 20% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 5–8 Mar 2019 | 1,386 | 58% | 0.5% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 2.5% | 7.5% | – | 24.5% | 2.5% | – | 13% | 5% | 22% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 1% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 4–7 Mar 2019 | 1,381 | 59% | 0.5% | 1% | 7% | 2.5% | 5% | 2% | 7.5% | – | 24% | 3% | – | 13% | 5.5% | 22% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
Elabe | 25–27 Feb 2019 | 1,201 | 59% | 1% | 8% | 2.5% | 5% | 3% | 10% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 13% | 5.5% | 22% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 4% | |
1% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 9% | – | 22% | 2.5% | – | 12% | 5% | 21.5% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% | 4% | |||||
OpinionWay | 20–27 Feb 2019 | 2,218 | 59% | 2% | – | 7% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 6% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 14% | 5% | 22% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 6% |
Harris Interactive | 22–23 Feb 2019 | 1,064 | 46% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 8% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 12% | 6% | 20% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 4% |
1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 8% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 12% | 5% | 19% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | ||||
BVA | 20–21 Feb 2019 | 929 | 48% | 1% | 1% | 7.5% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 9% | – | 25% | 2% | – | 10% | 6% | 19% | 1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4% | 2.5% |
Ifop | 20–21 Feb 2019 | 1,004 | – | 1% | 1% | 6.5% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 8.5% | – | 22% | 3.5% | – | 10% | 6.5% | 23% | 1% | 0.5% | 2.5% | – | 3% |
Ipsos | 15–21 Feb 2019 | 10,002 | 58% | 0.5% | 1% | 8.5% | 2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.5% | – | 23% | 2.5% | – | 12% | 6.5% | 21% | 1% | 0.5% | 2% | – | – |
0.5% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 8% | – | 23% | 2.5% | – | 12% | 6% | 19.5% | 1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.5% | – | ||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 13–15 Feb 2019 | 1,367 | – | 1% | 1% | 7.5% | 3% | 6% | 3.5% | 9% | – | 24% | 2% | – | 10% | 6% | 20% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2% | – | 3% |
1% | 1% | 7% | 2.5% | 6% | 3.5% | 8.5% | – | 24% | 2.5% | – | 10% | 6% | 20% | 1% | <0.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 2.5% | ||||
OpinionWay | 17–25 Jan 2019 | 1,810 | 57% | 1% | – | 8% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 8% | – | 20% | 3% | – | 12% | 7% | 22% | 1% | <1% | – | – | 6% |
Elabe | 22–23 Jan 2019 | 1,000 | 70% | 0.5% | 9.5% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 9% | – | 23.5% | 3% | – | 12.5% | 5% | 20.5% | 1.5% | 1% | – | – | 4% | |
0.5% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 1.5% | 8.5% | – | 22.5% | 3% | – | 11.5% | 3.5% | 17.5% | 0.5% | 1% | – | 13% | 2% | |||||
Ifop-Fiducial | 8–9 Jan 2019 | 934 | – | – | 1.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4% | 2.5% | 6.5% | – | 23% | 3.5% | – | 10% | 7.5% | 21% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 3% | – | 3.5% |
– | 1.5% | 7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 6.5% | – | 23% | 3.5% | – | 10% | 6% | 18.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2% | 7.5% | 3% | ||||
Odoxa | 19–20 Dec 2018 | 926 | – | – | 2.5% | 11.5% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 6.5% | – | 19% | 2.5% | – | 8% | 7% | 24% | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 2% |
– | 3.5% | 10.5% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 6% | – | 19% | 2% | – | 8% | 7% | 21% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 1% | ||||
Ifop | 7–10 Dec 2018 | 938 | – | – | 1.5% | 9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 8% | – | 18% | 3% | – | 11% | 8% | 24% | 1% | 0.5% | 2.5% | – | 3% |
Ipsos* | 5–6 Dec 2018 | 957 | – | 1.5% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 3.5% | 14% | – | 21% | 3% | – | 12.5% | 6% | 17% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.5% | – | – | |
1% | 9% | 1.5% | 3% | 3% | 13% | – | 21% | 3% | – | 11% | 4.5% | 14% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3% | 12% | – | |||||
BVA | 26 Nov–6 Dec 2018 | 5,456 | 50% | – | 1% | 10% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 7% | – | 20% | 3% | – | 12% | 7% | 21% | 1% | 1% | 2% | – | 3% |
Ifop* | 3–4 Dec 2018 | 944 | – | – | 1.5% | 11.5% | 14% | – | 15% | 4% | – | 13% | 7.5% | 23.5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | – | 6% | |||
– | 1.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 4% | – | 16% | 4.5% | – | 12.5% | 8% | 24% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.5% | – | 3.5% | ||||||
Ifop | 9–12 Nov 2018 | 945 | – | – | 1% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 7% | – | 19% | 4% | – | 13% | 6% | 22% | 1% | 1% | 2% | – | 3% |
Elabe | 6–7 Nov 2018 | 1,002 | 56% | 0.5% | 11% | 2.5% | 7% | 2.5% | 7% | – | 19.5% | 4% | – | 15% | 6.5% | 20% | 1% | 0.5% | – | – | 3% | |
Ifop | 30–31 Oct 2018 | 905 | – | – | 2% | 11% | 2% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 7% | – | 19% | 3% | – | 13% | 7% | 21% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 3% |
Ifop | 25–29 Oct 2018 | 1,382 | – | – | 1% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | – | 20% | 3% | – | 14% | 6.5% | 20% | 1% | 1.5% | – | – | 3% |
Odoxa | 12–13 Sep 2018 | 907 | – | – | 1% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 4% | 5% | – | 21.5% | 3% | – | 14% | 6% | 21% | 1.5% | 1% | 1% | – | 2.5% |
Ifop-Fiducial | 30–31 Aug 2018 | 1,403 | – | – | 2% | 14% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 20% | 2.5% | – | 15% | 6.5% | 17% | 1% | 0.5% | – | – | 3% |
– | 2% | 14% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 7.5% | – | 21% | – | 4% | 14% | 6.5% | 17% | 0.5% | 0.5% | – | – | 2% | ||||
Ipsos | 27 Jun–2 Jul 2018 | 998 | 58% | 1% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | – | 26% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | – | |
Ifop-Fiducial | 25–27 Jun 2018 | 1,374 | – | – | 1% | 11% | 2.5% | 6% | 3% | 6% | – | 23% | 2.5% | 15% | 6% | 19% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 3% | |
Elabe | 29–30 May 2018 | 1,004 | 67% | 1% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 1.5% | 8% | – | 24% | 2% | 15% | 5.5% | 19.5% | 1.5% | 1% | – | – | 4% | ||
Harris Interactive | 22–23 May 2018 | 1,673 | 49% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 4% | – | 28% | 2% | 13% | 7% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% | ||
Viavoice* | 7–11 May 2018 | 1,506 | – | 2% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 7% | 9% | – | 32% | – | – | 12% | 6% | 14% | – | – | – | – | – |
3% | 2% | 11% | 2% | 7% | 13% | – | 33% | – | – | 11% | 6% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | |||||
Ifop | 7–9 May 2018 | 920 | – | – | 2% | 14% | – | 7% | 3% | 3% | – | 27% | – | – | 15% | 6% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
2% | 13% | 2% | 8% | – | 4% | – | 27% | 3% | 13% | 6% | 17% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 3% | ||||||
Ifop | 29 Nov–1 Dec 2017 | 1,007 | – | 1% | 14% | 2% | 8% | – | 4% | – | 26% | 3.5% | 12% | 6% | 17% | 2% | 1.5% | – | – | 3% | ||
2014 election | 25 May 2014 | – | 57.57% | 1.17% | 0.39% | 6.61% (FG) | 17.56% | – | 10.41% | 9.94% (L'Alt.) | – | 20.81% | 3.82% | 24.86% | – | 0.41% | – | – | 4.02% |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "[COMMUNIQUE DE PRESSE] EURO-ROLLING 2019 - Le rendez-vous quotidien du scrutin européen" (PDF). Ifop. 4 March 2019. Retrieved 4 March 2019.
- ^ @TF1Pro (24 February 2019). "LE GROUPE TF1, RTL et LE FIGARO SIGNENT UN PARTENARIAT AVEC HARRIS INTERACTIVE et l'Agence EPOKA POUR LES ELECTIONS EUROPÉENNES" (Tweet). Retrieved 24 February 2019 – via Twitter.