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Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election

  (Redirected from Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008)

This article provides a collection of statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the United States presidential election, 2008.

Contents

Opinion pollingEdit

 AlabamaEdit

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 AlaskaEdit

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 ArizonaEdit

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 ArkansasEdit

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 CaliforniaEdit

55 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 ColoradoEdit

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 ConnecticutEdit

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 DelawareEdit

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 District of ColumbiaEdit

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 FloridaEdit

27 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 GeorgiaEdit

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 HawaiiEdit

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 IdahoEdit

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 IllinoisEdit

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 IndianaEdit

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 IowaEdit

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000)
(Republican in 2004)

 KansasEdit

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 KentuckyEdit

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 LouisianaEdit

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 MaineEdit

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 MarylandEdit

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 MassachusettsEdit

12 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 MichiganEdit

17 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 MinnesotaEdit

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 MississippiEdit

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 MissouriEdit

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 MontanaEdit

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

‡ Ron Paul replaced Chuck Baldwin on the ballot in Montana.

 NebraskaEdit

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 NevadaEdit

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 New HampshireEdit

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000)
(Democrat in 2004)

 New JerseyEdit

15 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 New MexicoEdit

5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000)
(Republican in 2004)

 New YorkEdit

31 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 North CarolinaEdit

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 North DakotaEdit

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 OhioEdit

20 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 OklahomaEdit

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 OregonEdit

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 PennsylvaniaEdit

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 Rhode IslandEdit

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 South CarolinaEdit

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 South DakotaEdit

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 TennesseeEdit

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 TexasEdit

34 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 UtahEdit

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 VermontEdit

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 VirginiaEdit

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 WashingtonEdit

11 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 West VirginiaEdit

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

 WisconsinEdit

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

 WyomingEdit

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  • * a scientific poll conducted via the Internet (not used in calculating results below).
  • ** a poll commissioned by an organization affiliated with a specific candidate (not used in calculating results below).

Latest results (using latest polling when available)Edit

This results section uses only the last polls for each state. It is for indicative purposes only, and is highly susceptible to polling errors. The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of electoral votes awarded to each state. A total of 538 electoral votes are distributed among the states and DC. Margins of 10% or more are considered "safe"; margins of 5% to 9.9% are considered "likely" and margins of 0.1% to 4.9% are considered "leaning". Margins of multiple polls concluded the same day are averaged out. Because of small sample size, it is highly volatile and should only be taken as examples.

Maps of recent polling dataEdit

Map and totals updated at 11-3-08 11:10AM EST. Maps are based on a weighted average for the previous 10 polling results, and as such may be slow to show changes in countrywide opinion – click on the image to view its history. The second map is altered to convey the proportional amount of electoral votes of each state. The number of electoral votes of a given state is based on its population. Candidates must win at least 270 electoral votes to win the election, and the House of Representatives votes in the event no one qualifies.

   

Safe Obama – over 10% (243) Likely Obama – over 5% (291) (48) Leans Obama – over 1% (338) (47) Tossup – within 1% (29) Leans McCain – over 1% (171) (39) Likely McCain – over 5% (132) (14) Safe McCain – over 10% (118)
District of Columbia (3) – 69.0%

Hawaii (4) – 38.3%
New York (31) – 29.0%
Vermont (3) – 27.4%
Delaware (3) – 23.8%
Illinois (21) – 22.8%
California (55) – 22.7%
Massachusetts (12) – 20.3%
Connecticut (7) – 20.1%
Maryland (10) – 18.2%
Rhode Island (4) – 17.0%
New Jersey (15) – 16.5%
Oregon (7) – 15.4%
Washington (11) – 14.6%
Maine (4) – 14.0%
Michigan (17) – 13.8%
Iowa (7) – 13.0%
New Hampshire (4) – 12.9%
Minnesota (10) – 11.9%
Wisconsin (10) – 11.3%
New Mexico (5) – 10.1%

Pennsylvania (21) – 7.4%

Colorado (9) – 7.2%
Nevada (5) – 6.1%
Virginia (13) – 5.6%

Ohio (20) – 4.6%

Florida (27) – 3.1%

North Carolina (15) – 0.9% Obama

Missouri (11) – 0.1% McCain
North Dakota (3) – 0.5% McCain

Arizona (10) – 4.7%

Georgia (15) – 4.1%
Montana (3) – 2.5%
Indiana (11) – 1.3%

Arkansas (6) – 9.7%

South Dakota (3) – 9.0%
West Virginia (5) – 7.9%

Oklahoma (7) – 29.3%

Utah (5) – 26.2%
Idaho (4) – 25.2%
Wyoming (3) – 23.6%
Alabama (9) – 23.4%
Nebraska (5) – 20.7%
Kansas (6) – 16.8%
Alaska (3) – 16.7%
Tennessee (11) – 15.2%
Kentucky (8) – 13.7%
Texas (34) – 11.9%
South Carolina (8) – 11.5%
Mississippi (6) – 11.0%
Louisiana (9)- 10.2%

Totals

  • Obama leads: 338 electoral votes
  • McCain leads: 171 electoral votes


Election Day projectionEdit

 

FINAL UPDATE: 22:32, 4 November 2008 (UTC)

  • Data derived from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com weighted averages and statistical polling analysis, which determines what the best guess as to what will happen on Election Day is rather than what would happen if the election were held today. (Methodology)
  • Each state is colored according to which candidate is currently projected to win, and both the state's total electoral votes and the winning candidate's projected margin of victory are listed.
  • The actual result matches this map with the exceptions that Barack Obama won Indiana and Nebraska's second congressional district.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Poll: Obama Leading McCain In Mich – Politics News Story – WDIV Detroit". Clickondetroit.com. Retrieved 2008-09-05.

External linksEdit