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2016 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

The 2016 Rhineland-Palatinate state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect all 101 members to the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. Seats are allotted by proportional representation with a 5% threshold. State elections were held on the same day in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt.

2016 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

← 2011 13 March 2016 (2016-03-13) 2021 →

All 101 seats of the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate.
51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout70.4 %
  First party Second party Third party
  WLP RLP 9648 Malu Dreyer.jpg Kloeckner 2010.jpg Landtagswahl Rheinland-Pfalz LPK Spitzenkandidaten by Olaf Kosinsky-12.jpg
Leader Malu Dreyer Julia Klöckner Uwe Junge
Party SPD CDU AfD
Last election 42 seats, 35.7% 41 seats, 35.2% Did not contest
Seats before 42 41 0
Seats won 39 35 14
Seat change Decrease3 Decrease6 Increase14
Popular vote 771,848 677,507 268,628
Percentage 36.2 31.8 12.6
Swing Increase0.5 Decrease3.4 Increase12.6

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Volker Wissing-2617.jpg Eveline Lemke.jpg No image.svg
Leader Volker Wissing Eveline Lemke Jochen Bülow
Party FDP Green Left
Last election 0 seats, 4.2% 18 seats, 15.4% 0 seats, 3.2%
Seats before 0 17[1] 0
Seats won 7 6 0
Seat change Increase7 Decrease12 Steady
Popular vote 132,294 113,261 60,074
Percentage 6.2 5.3 2.8
Swing Increase2.0 Decrease10.2 Decrease0.2

RP Landtagswahl 2016.svg

Minister-President before election

Malu Dreyer
SPD

Minister-President

Malu Dreyer
SPD

After the election, Malu Dreyer of the Social Democratic Party led a coalition government of her party with Greens and Free Democratic Party, nicknamed the "traffic light coalition".

Contents

Issues and campaignEdit

PollsEdit

The reference for the polls is wahlrecht.de.[2]

Poll Date SPD CDU Green FDP Left FW Pirate AfD Other
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3] 03/10/2016 36% 35% 5.5% 7% 3% 9% 4.5%
YouGov[3] 03/10/2016 35% 36% 6% 6% 4% 11% 2%
Forsa[3] 03/09/2016 35% 35% 6% 6% 4% 9% 5%
INSA[3] 03/07/2016 35% 35% 7% 5% 3% 9% 6%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3] 03/04/2016 34% 35% 6% 6% 4% 10% 5%
Infratest dimap[3] 03/03/2016 34% 36% 7% 5% 4% 9% 5%
Infratest dimap[3] 03/01/2016 32% 36% 8% 6% 4% 9% 5%
INSA[3] 02/28/2016 32.5% 35% 10% 6% 4% 8.5% 4%
GESS Phone & Field[3] 02/25/2016 33% 37% 8% 5% 3% 2% 9% 3%
INSA[3] 02/22/2016 33% 35% 9% 7% 4% 8.5% 3.5%
Infratest dimap[3] 02/11/2016 31% 37% 8% 6% 4% 9% 5%
INSA[3] 02/05/2016 32% 36% 10% 6% 3% 8% 5%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3] 01/22/2016 31% 38% 7% 5% 5% 9% 5%
Infratest dimap[3] 01/14/2016 31% 37% 9% 5% 5% 8% 5%
Infratest dimap[3] 12/10/2015 31% 39% 9% 5% 5% 7% 4%
INSA[3] 11/25/2015 31% 38.5% 11% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 7% 2%
GESS Phone & Field[3] 11/19/2015 33% 40% 9% 5% 3% 2% 5% 3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3] 11/06/2015 30% 41% 8% 4% 5% 6% 6%
Infratest dimap[3] 09/24/2015 31% 41% 10% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Infratest dimap[3] 07/23/2015 33% 42% 10% 4% 3% 3% 5%
GESS Phone & Field[3] 06/26/2015 33% 40% 11% 4% 3% 2% 4% 2%
Infratest dimap[3] 02/19/2015 32% 42% 11% 3% 3% 5% 4%
GESS Phone & Field[3] 12/17/2014 30% 43% 10% 3% 4% 1% 1% 5% 3%
Infratest dimap[3] 11/13/2014 31% 43% 11% 2% 4% 5% 4%
Infratest dimap[3] 09/25/2014 31% 43% 10% 2% 4% 6% 4%
GESS Phone & Field[3] 06/24/2014 32% 41% 10% 3% 4% 2% 4% 4%
Infratest dimap[3] 05/08/2014 31% 41% 11% 3% 4% 4% 6%
Infratest dimap[3] 04/03/2014 33% 41% 11% 3% 4% 3% 5%
State election 2011[3] 03/27/2011 35.7% 35.2% 15.4% 4.2% 3.0% 2.3% 1.6% N/A 2.5%

ResultsEdit

e • d Results for the 13 March 2016 election to the 17th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate
< 2011     < 2021
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Social Democratic Party
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD
771,848 36.2  0.5 39  3
Christian Democratic Union
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU
677,507 31.8  3.4 35  6
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland – AfD
268,628 12.6  12.6 14  14
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP
132,294 6.2  2.0 7  7
Alliance '90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
113,261 5.3  10.1 6  12
The Left
Die Linke
59,970 2.8  0.2
Free Voters Rhineland-Palatinate
Freie Wähler
47,924 2.2  0.1
Pirate Party
Piratenpartei
16,708 0.8  0.8
Alliance for Progress and Renewal
Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA
13,154 0.6  0.6
National Democratic Party
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD
10,565 0.5  0.6
Ecological Democratic Party
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP
8,623 0.4  
The Republicans
Die Republikaner – REP
5,090 0.2  
The Unity [de]
Die Einheit
3,105 0.1  0.1
The Third Way [de]
Der III. Weg
1,944 0.1  0.1
Other parties
Valid votes 2,130,621 98.6  0.7
Invalid votes 30,885 1.4  0.7
Totals and voter turnout 2,161,506 70.4  8.6 101
Electorate 3,071,972 100.0
Source: Landeswahlleiter[4]

Post-electionEdit

 
Malu Dreyer photographed in the evening the state election in the boardroom of the SPD

A coalition of the existing ruling parties, the SPD and the Greens, would not have sufficient votes in the Landtag to be able to muster a majority (they would have 45 seats – 7 short of a majority). Neither would a coalition of the CDU and the returning FDP (they would have 42 seats – 10 seats short). A große Koalition (‘grand coalition’) of the SPD and CDU would have an absolute majority of 22 seats, but with the SPD having ruled out a grand coalition with Klöckner and the CDU ahead of the election, Dreyer looks most likely to work towards a "traffic light coalition," which would see the SPD, Free Democrats (FDP), and Greens join forces. These three parties would be able to form a state government with the SPD holding 39 seats, the Greens 6, and the FPD 7 – this would have a bare majority of 1 vote (52 seats) in the Landtag. A "Jamaica Coalition" of the CDU, FDP, and Greens would fall 4 seats short of the necessary majority. An unlikely, although theoretically possible, coalition between the CDU and AfD would also fall short by 3 seats in the Landtag.

Alternatively, a minority government of the SPD and Greens could take power with the "toleration" of the FDP and/or the CDU, or a FDP/SPD coalition with the toleration of the Greens and/or CDU. This has not had much of a precedent in western Germany, but is entirely possible.[5]

Eventually, a "traffic-light coalition" between the SPD, The Greens and the FDP was formed, and Malu Dreyer remained the minister-president.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Greens MP Rahim Schmidt [de] left his party in 2015 and has since been an independent member of the Landtag. "Abgeordneter verlässt die Grünen" (in German). SWR. 30 September 2015. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
  2. ^ "Umfragen Rheinland-Pfalz". wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 30 January 2016.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl in Rheinland-Pfalz
  4. ^ "Landesergebnis Rheinland-Pfalz – Endgültiges Ergebnis" (in German). Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz. 13 March 2016. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
  5. ^ http://www.dw.com/en/rhineland-palatinate-plays-it-safe-re-electing-spd-for-sixth-consecutive-term/a-19112416

External linksEdit