2016 Baden-Württemberg state election

The Baden-Württemberg state election 2016 was held on 13 March 2016 to elect members to Baden-Württemberg's State diet, the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg in Stuttgart. It was the 15th state election since the foundation of Baden-Württemberg in 1952. Going into the election, Winfried Kretschmann of Alliance '90/The Greens led a coalition government of his party with the Social Democrats. After the election, Kretschman was confirmed in May 2016 leading a coalition with the CDU, the first time the Greens have led such a coalition in Germany.

2016 Baden-Württemberg state election

← 2011 13 March 2016 (2016-03-13) 2021 →

All 143 seats in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg
72 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
  Winfried Kretschmann 2012 (cropped).jpg Guido Wolf 2013 (portrait).jpg Jörg Meuthen 2015 (portrait).jpg
Leader Winfried Kretschmann Guido Wolf Jörg Meuthen
Party Green CDU AfD
Last election 36 seats, 24.1% 60 seats, 39.0% Did not contest
Seats before 36 60 0
Seats won 47 42 23
Seat change Increase11 Decrease18 Increase23
Popular vote 1,622,631 1,447,249 809,311
Percentage 30.3% 27.0% 15.1%
Swing Increase6.1% Decrease12.0% Increase15.1%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Nils Schmid 2012 (cropped).jpg Rülke.JPG Bernd Riexinger 2014 (portrait).jpg
Leader Nils Schmid Hans-Ulrich Rülke Bernd Riexinger
Party SPD FDP Left
Last election 35 seats, 23.1% 7 seats, 5.3% 0 seats, 2.8%
Seats before 35 7 0
Seats won 19 12 0
Seat change Decrease16 Increase5 Steady
Popular vote 679,872 445,430 156,211
Percentage 12.7% 8.3% 2.9%
Swing Decrease10.4% Increase3.0% Increase0.1%

Wahlkreisergebnisse BW 2016.svg

Minister-President before election

Winfried Kretschmann
Green

Minister-President

Winfried Kretschmann
Green

Like in all German states, elections in Baden-Württemberg follow the mixed member proportional representation. There are 70 constituency seats and at least 50 additional seats to be filled, making up a total of seats of at least 120. A higher number can be reached through overhang seats and additional seats to restore proportional representation. Unlike all other states, there are no party lists. Instead, the seats for a party which are not filled by constituency winners go to the party's remaining constituency candidates with the highest percentages of votes. The Sainte-Laguë method is used to calculate the seat allocation.

Campaign and issuesEdit

The Greens campaigned to keep Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann in office. Their central issues were energy, economics, and education. The CDU aimed to put an end to the green-red state government and usher in its own leading candidate Guido Wolf to head the state government. Themes in focus for the CDU were education policy, internal security, and the issue of infrastructure, including high-speed internet. The SPD, led by Nils Schmid, wanted to win more votes to continue the existing government coalition with The Greens. The SPD's campaign mainly focused on "good jobs", educational equality, and more time for the family. The electoral goal of the FDP, led by Hans-Ulrich Rülke, was to repeat its entry into the state parliament and possibly be involved in a governing coalition. They promised better education, the strengthening of the local business, and improvement of mobility. The AfD party campaigned to be elected into the state parliament for the first time. Its leading candidate Jörg Meuthen saw migration policy as an important election issue, alongside education, security, and energy transition.[1]

The election campaign was overshadowed by the European migrant crisis. In the crisis, Kretschmann supported the policies of Chancellor Angela Merkel.[2] Kretschmann said he saw no other person who could keep Europe together as Angela Merkel did. "Therefore, I pray every day that the Chancellor remains healthy."[3] CDU candidate Wolf also emphasized support for Merkel's "European solution" in the crisis, but in February 2016 tried to win more conservative voters by a joint proposal along with Rhineland-Palatinate CDU candidate Julia Klöckner for daily refugee quotas and border centers for migrants, which put additional pressure on Merkel.[4]

PollsEdit

The reference for the polls is wahlrecht.de.[5]

Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling
              Margin
of Error
Sample
Size
Lead
State Election March 13, 2016 27.0 30.3 12.7 8.3 2.9 0.4 15.1 3.3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10 March 2016 29 32 14 6 4 11 ±2.4 pp 1,711 3
YouGov 9 March 2016 30 32 12 8 4 11 ±3.1 pp 974 2
Forsa 8 March 2016 27 32 16 7 3 11 ±3.1 pp 1,002 5
INSA 5 March 2016 28.5 33.5 12.5 6.0 3.0 12.5 ±3.1 pp 1,005 5.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3 March 2016 30 32 13 7 4 11 ±3.0 pp 1,058 2
Infratest dimap 2 March 2016 28 32 13 8 4 13 ±3.1 pp 1,002 4
INSA 27 February 2016 30.0 30.5 16.5 6.5 3.5 9.0 ±3.1 pp 1,030 0.5
Forsa 22 February 2016 30 30 16 6 3 11 ±3.0 pp 1,069 Tie
INSA 20 February 2016 30.0 30.5 16.0 7.0 3.0 10.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 0.5
Infratest dimap 16 February 2016 31 28 14 8 4 12 ±3.1 pp 1,000 3
Customer Research 42 7 February 2016 33.1 26.1 15.6 5.1 5.5 10.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 7.0
INSA 1 February 2016 33.5 28.5 13.5 7.0 3.5 10.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 5.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20 January 2016 34 28 15 6 3 11 ±3.0 pp 1,069 6
INSA 18 January 2016 35 29 13 6.5 2.5 11.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 6
Infratest dimap 12 January 2016 35 28 15 6 3 10 ±3.1 pp 1,000 7
Forsa 11 December 2015 35 28 19 5 3 7 ±3.0 pp 1,064 7
Infratest dimap 1 December 2015 37 25 18 5 4 8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18 November 2015 37 27 18 5 3 6 ±3.0 pp 1,040 10
INSA 6 October 2015 40 24 16 5 5 8 ±3.1 pp 1,003 16
Infratest dimap 22 September 2015 39 26 17 5 4 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 13
Allensbach 12 August 2015 40.5 24.0 20.0 4.5 4.0 3.0 ±3.0 pp 1,047 16.5
Forsa 7 May 2015 38 26 20 4 4 4 ±3.1 pp 1,010 12
Infratest dimap 24 March 2015 38 25 18 5 5 4 ±3.1 pp 1,000 13
Infratest dimap 11 November 2014 41 22 20 3 4 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 19
TNS Infratest 17 September 2014 41 23 19 4 4 4 18
EP Election May 25, 2014 39.3 13.2 23.0 4.1 3.6 1.2 7.9 16.3
Infratest dimap 11 May 2014 41 21 20 3 4 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 20
Infratest dimap 5 November 2013 43 22 19 4 4 5 ±3.1 pp 1,004 21
Federal Election September 22, 2013 45.7 11.0 20.6 6.2 4.8 2.3 5.2 25.1
Infratest dimap 15 May 2013 39 28 19 4 2 3 2 ±3.1 pp 1,005 11
Infratest dimap 8 May 2012 37 28 21 4 2 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 9
Emnid 17 November 2011 34 32 20 4 3 4 ±3.1 pp 1,002 2
Infratest dimap 16 November 2011 37 29 22 3 2 4 ±2.0 pp 2,403 8
Infratest dimap 17 August 2011 36 29 23 4 3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 7
Forsa 29 April 2011 36 30 22 4 2 ±3.1 pp 1,004 6
State Election March 27, 2011 39.0 24.2 23.1 5.3 2.8 2.1 14.8

2016 state electionEdit

e • d Summary of the 13 March 2016 Landtag of Baden-Württemberg elections results
< 2011     Next >
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Alliance '90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
1,622,631 30.3  6.1 47  11
Christian Democratic Union
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU
1,447,249 27.0  12.0 42  18
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland – AfD
809,311 15.1  15.1 23  23
Social Democratic Party
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD
679,872 12.7  10.4 19  16
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP
445,430 8.3  3.0 12  5
Left Party
Die Linke
156,211 2.9  0.1 0
Alliance for Progress and Renewal
Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA
54,764 1.0  1.0 0
Ecological Democratic Party
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP
38,509 0.7  0.2 0
National Democratic Party
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD
23,605 0.4  0.6 0
Pirate Party
Piratenpartei
21,773 0.4  0.6 0
Other parties
Valid votes 5,360,351 99.0  0.4
Invalid votes 51,950 1.0  0.4
Totals and voter turnout 5,412,301 70.4  4.2 143  5
Electorate 7,685,778 100.00
Source: Landeswahlleiter[6][7]

AftermathEdit

In the prior election of 2011, the Green/SPD coalition obtained a majority (73 of 138) of votes in the Landtag, including two opposition votes;[8] however after the 2016 vote, the coalition fell short of a majority, with a combined total of 66 seats (72 needed for a majority). Kretschmann's popularity propelled the Green Party to a gain of 11 seats, making history as the first time the Green party has been the largest party in State-level election results. However, the Greens' coalition partner, the SPD, lost 16 seats, thus depriving the Greens' of a clear majority of leftists.[9]

There were several possible and probable working majorities among the five parties in the Landtag. Expanding the existing coalition into a three-party "traffic light" coalition (green-red-yellow) by including the FDP would have given the administration a working majority of 6.[10] Coalitions with AfD appeared unlikely: a CDU-AfD coalition would be 7 short of a majority in the Landtag, so would have also needed to include the FDP to make a majority and remove Kretschmann as minister-president. Removal of Kretschmann was unlikely; CDU leader Guido Wolf briefly sought to get the Social Democrats into a right-of-centre coalition with the FDP (with Wolf as state minister-president), but his SPD counterpart Nils Schmid pointed out that such a coalition would frustrate voters due to the personal popularity of Kretschmann.[9] If it were possible to elect the minister-president directly, Kretschmann would have won an outright majority according to polls; he was even favored by 45% of CDU supporters.[11]

In May 2016, the Landtag confirmed Kretschmann's leadership in a secret ballot.[12] He won 82 votes leading a "green-black" coalition with a nominal majority of 89 Landestag members (Green 47, CDU 42). A similar "black-green" coalition headed by the CDU has governed in Hesse since the similarly indecisive 2013 elections, but this is the first time the Green Party is the lead coalition partner in a coalition with the CDU (previously, they led a coalition with the SPD). Kretschmann formed the Cabinet Kretschmann II as the state government.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Der Kampf um die Macht in Baden-Württemberg". Stimme.de. 10 January 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  2. ^ "Wahl in Baden-Württemberg: Kretschmann setzt auf Europa in der Flüchtlingskrise - Wahl in Baden-Württemberg". FAZ. 28 February 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  3. ^ "Winfried Kretschmann im Interview: "Ich bete jeden Tag für Angela Merkel" - Politik - Tagesspiegel". Tagesspiegel.de (in German). Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  4. ^ "Flüchtlingspolitik: CDU-Wahlkämpfer erhöhen Druck auf Merkel". Tagesschau.de. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  5. ^ "Umfragen Baden-Württemberg". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 25 January 2016.
  6. ^ "Landtagswahl 2016 - Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg". statistik-bw.de.
  7. ^ tagesschau.de. "tagesschau.de". wahl.tagesschau.de.
  8. ^ https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13367450/Kretschmann-erhaelt-sogar-zwei-Oppositionsstimmen.html
  9. ^ a b Knight, Ben (15 March 2016). "Greens face rightward shift despite victory". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 8 July 2019.
  10. ^ http://www.merkur.de/politik/live-ticker-landtagswahl-baden-wuerttemberg-2016-ergebnisse-zr-6194314.html
  11. ^ http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2016-03/landtagswahlen-die-gruenen-winfried-kretschmann-umfrage-baden-wuerttemberg
  12. ^ http://www.dw.com/en/baden-w%C3%BCrttemberg-debuts-green-led-coalition-with-merkels-conservative-party/a-19229906

External linksEdit