Opinion polling on Scottish independence

This page lists public opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the issue of Scottish independence. A referendum on the subject was held on 18 September 2014.

2014 referendumEdit

Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign. This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007.The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined. Professor John Curtice [1]stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion. Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum, on 18 September 2014, Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.6%.

Post-referendum pollingEdit

Since the referendum in September 2014, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a hypothetical second referendum. These polls have been carried out since six weeks after the referendum.

Sentiment in favour of independence was high immediately following the referendum, with the majority of polls published in the next six months showing a plurality in favour of 'Yes'. Over the next two years support for 'No' rose and support for 'Yes' fell, apart from a temporary surge in favour of 'Yes' after the June 2016 Brexit referendum.

A Survation poll carried out just before the UK general election on 8 June 2017 showed a 20 point margin in favour of 'No', 56% to 36%. By September 2017 five consecutive polls had shown a margin for 'No' greater than the 2014 referendum result. To date this has proven to be a peak for 'No'. Support for 'No' declined slowly until the end of 2018, and more quickly from the spring of 2019, during a period of parliamentary gridlock over Brexit. Professor John Curtice said in mid-2019 that the recent swing towards 'Yes' was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

With Nicola Sturgeon having a high public profile during the COVID-19 pandemic, the 'Yes' margin rose to a peak to date in October 2020 when an Ipsos MORI poll for STV News showed a margin in favour of 'Yes' of 52% to 39%. Sentiment then swung back in favour of 'No', coinciding with the period when a Brexit trade deal was completed and the COVID-19 vaccination program was rolled out. Polls began to again generally show a plurality against independence in the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.

Polls using 2014 Referendum QuestionEdit

The following tables give the results of opinion polls conducted since the 2014 referendum, with most recent polls first in the tables.

There are several tables reflecting the different ways the question can be asked, producing different results. The main table, containing the large majority of polls, includes primarily those which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". The use of a slightly different question is noted in the table. The second table lists polls which use the question "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?". Subsequent tables deal with multi-option polling.

Most of the polls sample 16-17 year-olds, who were entitled to vote in the 2014 referendum. Some do not, again as noted.

Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors.

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
1–8 Dec 2022 FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus TBA 51% 43% 6% 8%
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,065 53% 42% 4% 11%
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 49% 45% 5% 4%
23 Nov 2022 The UK Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate a second independence referendum
25 Oct 2022 Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
20 Oct 2022 Liz Truss announces her intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
13–19 Oct 2022 Ipsos MORI 2,086 50% 43% 4% 7% [a]
7–10 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Alba Party 1,018 46% 49% 5% 3%
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,017 47% 47% 6% Tied
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,067 43% 45% 7% 2%
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 45% 46% 8% 1%
14–16 Sep 2022 Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland 659 42% 47% 7% 5% [b]
8 Sep 2022 Queen Elizabeth II dies at Balmoral Castle in Scotland and is succeeded by her son, King Charles III
6 Sep 2022 Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,133 46% 48% 6% 2%
7 July 2022 Boris Johnson announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
29 Jun–1 Jul 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,010 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Jun 2022 Techne UK 501 39% 45% 15% 6% [c]
28 Jun 2022 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,000 44% 46% 10% 2%
23–29 May 2022 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 45% 46% 8% 1%
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 38% 46% 11% 8%
5 May 2022 2022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr–3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,010 45% 47% 7% 2%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 47% 49% 5% 2%
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG/Herald 1,012 43% 49% 8% 6%
25–31 Mar 2022 Yougov/TheseIslands 519 39% 44% 13% 5% [d]
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation/Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 42% 47% 11% 5%
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,008 44% 49% 7% 5%
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Economist 1,651 45% 46% 9% 1%
24 Feb 2022 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
3–9 Feb 2022 Ipsos MORI 1,163 50% 43% 6% 7% [e]
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,004 46% 46% 8% Tied
15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium/Daily Record 1,328 44% 44% 12% Tied [f]
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,107 52% 43% 4% 9%
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,060 40% 46% 14% 6%
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,781 45% 47% 8% 2%
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 45% 48% 7% 3%
20–26 Oct 2021 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,001 44% 50% 5% 6%
18 Sep 2021 Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 2,003 45% 49% 6% 4%
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes Sunday Times 1,016 45% 48% 7% 3%
1–8 Sep 2021 Stack Data Strategy/UKonward 1,007 45% 49% 6% 4%
3–8 Sep 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,014 44% 43% 13% 1%
4–5 Aug 2021 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,287 45% 48% 7% 3%
11–14 May 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotland on Sunday 1,003 43% 49% 8% 6%
7–8 May 2021 Stack Data/Our Scottish Future 1,000 48% 48% 4% Tied [g]
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election
30 Apr–4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 42% 50% 8% 8%
2–4 May 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,144 41% 46% 13% 5%
30 Apr–4 May 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,008 43% 47% 10% 4%
28 Apr–3 May 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,015 45% 45% 8% Tied
30 Apr–3 May 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,502 47% 47% 6% Tied
28–30 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,096 48% 45% 6% 3%
27–30 Apr 2021 BMG/Herald 1,023 47% 47% 7% Tied
23–27 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 42% 49% 8% 7%
23–26 Apr 2021 Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,008 42% 47% 11% 5%
21–26 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,075 47% 48% 6% 1%
21–23 Apr 2021 Survation/These Islands 1,006 44% 46% 10% 2%
20–22 Apr 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,037 44% 45% 11% 1%
16–20 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 44% 48% 8% 4%
16–20 Apr 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,204 39% 45% 16% 6%
7–19 Apr 2021 Lord Ashcroft 2,017 44% 45% 11% 1% [h]
9–12 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Believe in Scotland 1,002 48% 46% 6% 2%
2–7 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,007 45% 45% 9% Tied
1–6 Apr 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,023 47% 45% 6% 2%
29 Mar–4 Apr 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,038 49% 45% 6% 4%
30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Mar 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,021 45% 44% 11% 1%
23–26 Mar 2021 Find Out Now/Daily Express 1,022 48% 44% 8% 4%
16–19 Mar 2021 BMG/Herald 1,021 49% 46% 5% 3%
11–18 Mar 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 2,047 43% 45% 12% 2%
11–16 Mar 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,096 45% 43% 8% 2%
5–10 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,009 45% 47% 8% 2%
5–9 Mar 2021 Hanbury Strategy 1,502 50% 43% 8% 6%
4–8 Mar 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,100 41% 43% 14% 2%
4–5 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,015 43% 46% 10% 3% [i]
3–5 Mar 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,013 46% 47% 7% 1%
26 Feb–4 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/Daily Express 1,004 43% 45% 12% 2%
12 Feb–1 Mar 2021 Hanbury Strategy 3,946 52% 41% 7% 11%
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar becomes leader of Scottish Labour
25–26 Feb 2021 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 43% 44% 13% 1%
18–22 Feb 2021 Savanta ComRes/ITV News 1,008 48% 44% 8% 4%
15–21 Feb 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,031 48% 44% 7% 4%
4–9 Feb 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,002 43% 46% 11% 3% [j]
19–22 Jan 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,206 49% 44% 7% 5%
14 Jan 2021 Richard Leonard resigns as leader of Scottish Labour
11–13 Jan 2021 Survation/Scot Goes Pop 1,020 45% 43% 12% 2%
8–13 Jan 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,016 47% 43% 10% 4% [j]
31 Dec 2020 The post-Brexit transition period ends
11–15 Dec 2020 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,013 49% 39% 12% 10% [j]
8 Dec 2020 COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom commences
2–7 Dec 2020 Survation 1,018 44% 42% 14% 2%
20–26 Nov 2020 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,006 51% 41% 8% 10%
5–11 Nov 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,020 51% 40% 8% 11%
6–10 Nov 2020 YouGov 1,089 43% 42% 10% 1%
28 Oct–3 Nov 2020 Survation 1,071 47% 40% 13% 7%
2–9 Oct 2020 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,045 52% 39% 9% 13%
9 Oct 2020 Savanta ComRes 1,003 47% 42% 11% 5%
25 Sep–5 Oct 2020 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,093 49% 42% 9% 7% [k]
17–21 Sep 2020 JL Partners 1,016 51% 40% 7% 11% [l]
2–7 Sep 2020 Survation 1,018 46% 40% 13% 6%
12–18 Aug 2020 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,011 51% 42% 7% 9%
6–13 Aug 2020 Savanta ComRes 1,008 49% 42% 9% 7%
6–10 Aug 2020 YouGov/The Times 1,142 45% 40% 9% 5%
5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jul 2020 Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,026 50% 43% 7% 7%
15–19 Jun 2020 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,070 50% 43% 7% 7%
1–5 Jun 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,022 48% 45% 8% 3%
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,086 46% 46% 7% Tied
24–26 Mar 2020 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,023 46% 47% 7% 1%
1 March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
7–14 Feb 2020 YouGov/Hanbury Strategy 2,587 45% 46% 8% 1% [m][n]
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union
28–31 Jan 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,016 49% 46% 6% 3%
22–27 Jan 2020 YouGov 1,039 43% 42% 10% 1%
20–22 Jan 2020 Survation/Progress Scotland 1,019 45% 45% 10% Tied
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
10–11 Dec 2019 Survation/The Courier 1,012 46% 47% 7% 1%
3–6 Dec 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,020 44% 50% 6% 6%
3–6 Dec 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,008 38% 48% 12% 10%
19–25 Nov 2019 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,046 48% 48% 4% Tied
20–22 Nov 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 45% 47% 7% 2%
9–11 Oct 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,003 46% 47% 7% 1%
30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,032 40% 51% 9% 11% [o]
30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,059 43% 44% 13% 1%
29 Aug 2019 Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 Lord Ashcroft 1,019 46% 43% 12% 3% [h][m]
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
18–20 Jun 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 46% 48% 6% 2%
24 May 2019 Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election
14–17 May 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 45% 49% 6% 4%
24–26 Apr 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,029 44% 45% 11% 1%
18–24 Apr 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,018 44% 49% 7% 5%
15–21 Mar 2019 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,041 35% 56% 8% 21% [p]
30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,028 45% 51% 4% 6%
2–7 Nov 2018 Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 1,050 43% 52% 5% 9%
18–21 Oct 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,017 41% 51% 7% 10%
3–5 Oct 2018 Survation/Scottish National Party 1,013 41% 49% 8% 8%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 41% 52% 7% 11%
28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 Survation/Sunday Post 1,036 43% 49% 8% 6%
24–29 Aug 2018 Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain 1,022 45% 47% 8% 2% [q]
5–10 Jul 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,002 41% 47% 12% 6% [m]
8–13 Jun 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 41% 53% 6% 12%
1–5 Jun 2018 YouGov/The Times 1,075 41% 50% 6% 9%
30 May–5 Jun 2018 YouGov/Future of England 1,052 41% 47% 12% 6% [r][m]
23–28 Mar 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,037 41% 53% 6% 12%
5–11 Mar 2018 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,050 46% 50% 4% 4% [m]
24–28 Jan 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,029 42% 50% 8% 8%
12–16 Jan 2018 YouGov/The Times 1,002 37% 50% 10% 13% [m]
1–5 Dec 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,006 42% 49% 8% 7%
27–30 Nov 2017 Survation/Daily Record 1,017 42% 48% 10% 6%
2–5 Oct 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,135 39% 50% 7% 11% [m]
8–12 Sep 2017 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,016 42% 49% 9% 7%
31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 40% 53% 6% 13%
9–13 Jun 2017 Survation/Daily Record 1,037 39% 53% 7% 14%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
6–7 Jun 2017 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 36% 56% 7% 20%
2–7 Jun 2017 Panelbase 1,106 41% 53% 6% 12%
1–5 Jun 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,093 38% 50% 8% 12% [m]
31 May–2 Jun 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,024 42% 50% 8% 8%
22–27 May 2017 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,016 45% 51% 3% 6% [m]
15–18 May 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,032 39% 49% 8% 10% [m]
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections
24–27 Apr 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,017 40% 49% 8% 9% [m]
18–21 Apr 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,029 43% 52% 5% 9%
18–21 Apr 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,018 43% 48% 9% 5% [m]
7–11 Apr 2017 BMG/Herald 1,041 43% 45% 12% 2%
29 Mar–11 Apr 2017 Kantar 1,060 37% 55% 8% 18%
13–17 Mar 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,008 42% 53% 5% 11%
9–14 Mar 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,028 37% 48% 11% 11% [m]
8–13 Mar 2017 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,019 43% 48% 9% 5%
13 Mar 2017 Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,029 47% 46% 6% 1%
23–27 Feb 2017 BMG/Herald 1,009 41% 44% 15% 3%
7–13 Feb 2017 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,028 44% 51% 6% 7%
26–31 Jan 2017 BMG/Herald 1,067 43% 45% 10% 2%
20–26 Jan 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,020 43% 51% 7% 8%
9–16 Dec 2016 BMG/Herald 1,002 40% 47% 13% 7%
29 Aug–16 Dec 2016 YouGov 3,166 39% 47% 11% 8% [m]
24–29 Nov 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,134 38% 49% 13% 11%
9–15 Sep 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 44% 50% 7% 6%
5–11 Sep 2016 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 45% 50% 5% 5%
5–10 Sep 2016 Survation 1,073 42% 48% 10% 6%
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 TNS 1,047 41% 47% 12% 6%
29–31 Aug 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,039 40% 46% 13% 6% [m]
20–25 Jul 2016 YouGov 1,005 40% 45% 14% 5% [m]
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
24–28 Jun 2016 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 47% 41% 12% 6%
25–26 Jun 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 626 47% 44% 8% 3% [s]
25 Jun 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,002 48% 41% 9% 7%
24 Jun 2016 David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 Jun 2016 2016 EU membership referendum
5 May 2016 2016 Scottish Parliament election
2–4 May 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,445 41% 48% 12% 7%
23–28 Apr 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,074 44% 49% 6% 5%
15–20 Apr 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,005 44% 47% 9% 3%
6–15 Apr 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 45% 51% 5% 6%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,012 41% 49% 10% 8%
10–17 Mar 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,051 44% 47% 9% 3%
7–9 Mar 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,070 40% 47% 12% 7%
25–29 Feb 2016 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,022 44% 49% 7% 5%
11–16 Feb 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 42% 48% 9% 6%
1–7 Feb 2016 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 49% 45% 5% 4%
1–4 Feb 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,022 43% 51% 7% 8%
8–14 Jan 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,053 44% 50% 7% 6%
8–12 Jan 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,029 45% 47% 8% 2%
6–13 Nov 2015 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,074 47% 49% 5% 2%
9–13 Oct 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,026 45% 49% 6% 4%
7–10 Sep 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,010 45% 46% 9% 1%
7–10 Sep 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,110 45% 49% 6% 4%
4–10 Sep 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,005 45% 51% 3% 6%
12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 TNS 1,023 47% 42% 11% 5%
24–30 Aug 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,002 53% 44% 3% 9%
3–7 Jul 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,084 43% 47% 10% 4%
26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 9 July 2015 at the Wayback Machine 1,002 45% 50% 5% 5%
19–21 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Post 1,108 44% 49% 7% 5%
7 May 2015 2015 United Kingdom general election.
3–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 44% 47% 9% 3%
29 Apr–1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 43% 49% 8% 6%
22–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 46% 47% 7% 1%
20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 45% 48% 7% 3%
8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 46% 49% 6% 3%
13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/Guardian 1,002 41% 48% 11% 7%
12–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 45% 43% 11% 2%
10–12 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 45% 48% 8% 3%
12–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 43% 47% 10% 4%
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 49% 44% 7% 5%
9–11 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 48% 48% 4% Tied
9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 48% 45% 6% 3%
27 Nov 2014 Release of Smith Commission report.
19 Nov 2014 Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland.
6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 44% 49% 7% 5%
30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 982 46% 45% 8% 1%
27–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 49% 45% 6% 4%
18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6%

Other polling formatsEdit

Polls using Remain / Leave QuestionEdit

Instead of using the question posed in the 2014 referendum ("Should Scotland be an independent country?"), some polls have adopted the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 Brexit referendum. In the context of Scottish independence, this means that the question would be asked in the fashion of "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?". The use of this format has been criticised by Scottish nationalists; SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom? Lead Notes
Leave Remain Undecided
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,011 36% 51% 13% 15%
29 Apr–3 May 2022 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,050 38% 52% 11% 14%
25–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 510 35% 50% 9% 15% [t]
18–22 Nov 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,045 38% 54% 8% 16%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,040 39% 52% 9% 13%
9–12 Mar 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,011 37% 49% 10% 12%
10–12 Sep 2020 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,008 37% 47% 11% 10%
12–16 Sep 2019 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,003 38% 55% 9% 17%
18–23 Apr 2019 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,012 36% 56% 7% 20%
9–13 Nov 2018 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,013 36% 55% 9% 19%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 BMG/Herald 1,010 39% 47% 15% 8%
18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6%

Multi-option pollingEdit

Prior to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, some three option opinion polls were conducted, giving respondents the option of full independence, some (undefined) form of increased devolution and the status quo. One poll of this type has been conducted since the EU membership referendum.

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Independence Devolution Max Status Quo Undecided Ref.
24-28 Jan 2018 Survation/Scottish Independence Referendum Party 32% 15% 36% 17% [2]

Polls on a "de facto" referendumEdit

On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[3] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum.

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green Other Lead (overall lead) Notes
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,065 53% 24% 13% 6% 2% 2% 29% (6%)
Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead Notes
23 Nov 2022 Find Out Now/Channel 4 News 1,006 50% 33% 16% 17% [u]

Scottish Social Attitudes SurveyEdit

Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.

Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

  1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
  2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
  3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
  4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
  5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.

A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".

Year Polling organisation/client Independence Devolution No Parliament
2021 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 52% 38% 8%
2019 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 51% 36% 7%
2017 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 45% 41% 8%
2016 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 46% 42% 8%
2015 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 39% 49% 6%
2014 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 33% 50% 7%
2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 29% 55% 9%
2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 23% 61% 11%
2011 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 32% 58% 6%
2010 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 23% 61% 10%
2009 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 28% 56% 8%
2007 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 24% 62% 9%
2006 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 30% 54% 14%
2005 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 35% 44% 14%
2004 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 32% 45% 17%
2003 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 26% 56% 13%
2002 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 30% 52% 13%
2001 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 27% 59% 9%
2000 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 30% 55% 12%
1999 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 27% 59% 10%

Polling on a second independence referendumEdit

Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. The first table below lists answers to the question "Do you support or oppose a second referendum on Scottish independence?". The second table lists polls asking "Do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held in the next 12 months, in the next 2–5 years or there should not be another referendum in the next few years?".

Support or oppose a second referendumEdit

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Do you support or oppose a second referendum on Scottish independence? Lead Notes
Support Oppose Undecided
29–25 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 28% 59% 13% 31% [v]
29–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 1,029 36% 53% 12% 17% [w]
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 45% 47% 9% 2%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,040 38% 52% 9% 14%

UK Polling - On Independence ReferendumEdit

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided/Dont Know
29–02 Dec 2022 Omnisis/ByLineTimes 1,1189 42% 35% 23% 7% [x]

Timing of a second referendumEdit

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held in the next 12 months, in the next 2–5 years or there should not be another referendum in the next few years? Lead Notes
12 Months In the next 2–5 years No referendum Don't know
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 - 42% 41% 16% 1%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase 1,009 24% 31% 45% - 10% [4]
22 Nov 2021 YouGov 1,060 - 45% 41% 13% 4%
12 Nov 2021 Panelbase 1,781 19% 34% 46% - 6% [4]
10 Sept 2021 Panelbase 2,003 17% 36% 47% - 5% [4]
24 June 2021 Panelbase 1,287 19% 35% 46% - 7% [4]
4 May 2021 YouGov 1,144 - 44% 41% 15% 3%
30 April 2021 Panelbase 1,096 22% 33% 45% - 10% [4]
20 April 2021 YouGov 1,204 - 44% 40% 16% 4%
1 April 2021 Panelbase 1009 25% 29% 46% - 8% [4]
8 March 2021 YouGov 1,100 - 42% 39% 19% 3%
5 March 2021 Panelbase 1,013 25% 30% 45% - 10% [4]

Within the rest of the United KingdomEdit

EnglandEdit

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
18 June–2 July 2021 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 17% 54% 29% 37%

WalesEdit

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
18 June–2 July 2021 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 195 14% 58% 28% 44%

British Social Attitudes SurveyEdit

The British Social Attitudes Survey has asked voters in England how Scotland should be governed, since the 1997 British Election Study. It has always found a plurality in favour of devolution, with majorities in favour between 1997 and 2003 and again between 2017 and 2021. Since 2011, when the Scottish National Party won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, there has always been one in five people in England in favour of Scottish independence.

Year Polling organisation/client Independence Devolution No Parliament
2021 British Social Attitudes Survey 25% 54% 15%
2020 British Social Attitudes Survey 24% 54% 14%
2017 British Social Attitudes Survey 22% 55% 15%
2015 British Social Attitudes Survey 23% 49% 20%
2013 British Social Attitudes Survey 20% 49% 18%
2012 British Social Attitudes Survey 25% 43% 23%
2011 British Social Attitudes Survey 26% 44% 19%
2007 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 48% 18%
2003 British Social Attitudes Survey 17% 58% 13%
2002 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 52% 15%
2001 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 60% 11%
2000 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 52% 17%
1999 British Social Attitudes Survey 21% 57% 14%
1997 British Election Study 14% 55% 23%

NotesEdit

  1. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  2. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  3. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  4. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  5. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  6. ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  7. ^ Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don’t know, or wouldn’t vote are excluded.
  8. ^ a b Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
  9. ^ The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
  10. ^ a b c Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
  11. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  12. ^ JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  14. ^ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
  15. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  16. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  17. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
  18. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
  19. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  20. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  21. ^ Question asked: “Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?”
  22. ^ Question asked was “Do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence in 2023?”
  23. ^ Question asked was “Do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence in 2023?”
  24. ^ Question asked was “Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?”

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Curtice. {{cite news}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  2. ^ "Poll: Support for Scottish independence at 32%". The Scotsman. 6 February 2018. Archived from the original on 20 January 2021. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
  3. ^ https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf
  4. ^ a b c d e f g Lead combines responses in favour of a referendum within the next 12 months and responses in favour of a referendum within the next 2-5 years.
  5. ^ "Do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held in the next 12 months, in the next 2-5 years or there should not be another referendum in the next few years? - What Scotland Thinks". whatscotlandthinks.org. Archived from the original on 14 November 2021. Retrieved 14 November 2021.

External linksEdit