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Interprovincial migration in Canada

Net cumulative interprovincial migration for each province and territory (1997–2017), as a share of population.

Interprovincial migration in Canada is the movement by people from one Canadian province to another with the intention of settling, permanently or temporarily in the new province; it is more or less stable over time.[1] In fiscal year 2016–17, 286,932 Canadians migrated province, representing 0,82% of the population.[2]

The Interprovincial migration levels of each province can be constructed as a way to measure the success of each jurisdiction. The main measurement used is net interprovincial migration, which is simply the difference between residents moving out of a province (out-migration) and the number of residents from other provinces moving into that province (in-migration). Since 1971, the provinces who received the most net cumulative interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Alberta and British Columbia, while the provinces who had the largest net loss of interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.[3]

Contents

HistoryEdit

 
Pamphlet advertising for immigration to Western Canada

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, Canadians who left their home province to settle elsewhere usually went to the United States rather than to other Canadian provinces. In fact, from the early years of confederation to the 1930s, Quebec and the maritimes provinces experienced a period of mass-emigration to the United States. From 1860 to 1920, half a million people left the maritimes,[4] and between 1840 and 1930, about 900,000 French Canadians left Quebec in order to immigrate to the United States, mainly in New England.[5][6]

However, some French Canadians and Maritimers were also drawn to Ontario, where the development of mining and forestry resources in the northeastern and eastern regions of this at the end of the 19th century and early 20th century attracted a large workforce from these region. This migration significantly increased the proportion of francophones in Ontario.[7] Even today, the Francophone population of Ontario is still concentrated mainly in the northeastern and eastern parts of the province, close to the border with Quebec, although smaller pockets of Francophone settlement exist throughout the province.

After Manitoba joined Confederation in 1870, the new provincial government was controlled by Anglo Canadians. The agreement for the establishment of the Province had included guarantees that the Métis would receive grants of land and that their existing unofficial landholdings would be recognized. These guarantees were largely ignored. New anglophone migrants coming from Ontario were instead given most of the land. Facing this discrimination, the Métis moved in large numbers to what would become Saskatchewan and Alberta.[8]

Starting in 1871, the Canadian government entered multiple treaties with indigenous nations to get their consent to take their lands "for immigration and settlement" in the area of the former Rupert's Land (although many of the treaty terms made to get this consent were subsequently violated by Canada).[9] The Dominion government then passed the Dominion Lands Act in 1872 to encourage the settlement of the Canadian Prairies, and to help prevent the area being claimed by the United States.[10] The act gave a claimant 160 acres (or 65 hectares) for free, the only cost to the farmer being a $10 administration fee. Any male farmer who was at least 21 years of age and agreed to cultivate at least 40 acres (16 ha) of the land and build a permanent dwelling on it (within three years) qualified.[11] The Population of the Canadian prairies started growing rapidly in the last decade of the XIX century. As per example, the population of Saskatchewan quintupled from 91,000 in 1901 to 492,000 to 1911.[12] However, while some on these people came from other Canadian province, the vast majority of them were immigrants from Europe.[11] Interprovincial migration in Canada was at its highest in the first 20 years of the XXth century, and started to decrease in the 1920s.[13]

Out-emigration from Quebec dramatically spiked in 1977, one year after the Parti Québécois won the 1976 Quebec general elections. It spiked again in 1996, one year after the 1995 Quebec referendum. This second spike was, however, 37.5% the size of the 1977 spike.[3]

InfluencesEdit

A number of factors have been identified by academic research in influencing interprovincial migration.

Demographic factorsEdit

The odds of a Canadian moving from one province to another is inversely related to the migrant's home province's population size: the larger the province, the less someone is likely to move out of province. Interprovincial migration is negatively related to marriage, and the presence of children for both men and women. Younger people also tend to move more around provinces than their older counterparts. Men are more likely to move than women, although men’s rates of interprovincial migration are declining slightly and women’s are holding steadier or rising slightly.[1]

Interprovincial migration is also more common among residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas than those in larger cities. The largest Canadian population centers (Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal and Calgary) also tend to attract the largest amount of interprovincial migrants, and there is a lot of flow between these cities.[14]

Economic factorsEdit

The economic situation of each provinces is an important indicator of internal migration within Canada. People moving out is more likely in provinces with higher unemployment rate. Interprovincial migration is also positively related to the individuals’ receipt of unemployment insurance, having no market income, and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men).[1] Canadian provinces also tend to lose more people than they gain when their province is in recession. Alberta, per example, experienced a net loss of people to interprovincial migration from September 2015 to December 2017.[15]

LanguageEdit

Language spoken is a strong predictor of interprovincial migration. Francophone quebeckers are one of the groups of people which is the least likely to move across province.[16] Francophones in New Brunswick are also much less likely to move out of province than their anglophone counterparts.[13]

The only group least likely to do so that Francophone quebeckers and francophone immigrants living in Quebec. Inversely, francophone immigrants living outside Quebec is the group most prone to interprovincial migration, as 9.2% of them move across province. Over half of Francophones outside Quebec (immigrant and Canada-born) who migrate across provinces choose Quebec as their destination.[16]

LiteracyEdit

Literacy used to be a significant indicator of interprovincial migration in Canada in the late XIX and early XX century. Anglophone Canadians who could read were more likely to move than their illiterate counterparts. For francophone Quebeckers, however, this was the opposite, as literate unilingual francophones were more likely to stay in Quebec than illiterate unilingual francophones. Literacy had, however, no effet on the likelihood of migration of bilingual quebeckers.[13]

Provincial levelEdit

 
Number of years each province and territory had positive interprovincial immigration (1971–).

AlbertaEdit

Over the past five decades, Alberta has had the highest net gain of people from interprovincial migration for any provinces. However, they typically lose population to this during economic downturns, such as during the 1980s[3]. Oil is the main industry driving interprovincial migration to Alberta, as many Canadians move to Alberta to work on the oil fields. Interprovincial migration to Alberta rises and drops dependent of the price of oil. As such, it reduced dramatically after the 2014 drop in oil prices.[17][15]

Interprovincial migration in Alberta
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 84,437 69,120 15,317
2008 / 2009 75,238 62,054 13,184
2009 / 2010 57,958 61,229 -3,271
2010 / 2011 63,975 55,532 8,443
2011 / 2012 80,837 53,185 27,652
2012 / 2013 84,602 46,004 38,598
2013 / 2014 87,307 51,925 35,382
2014 / 2015 81,540 59,946 21,594
2015 / 2016 56,978 72,086 -15,108
2016 / 2017 55,661 70,792 -15,10

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

British ColumbiaEdit

British Columbia has also traditionally been gaining from interprovincial migration. Over the last 50 years, British Columbia only had 12 years of negative interprovincial immigration: the lowest in the country. The only time they significantly lost population to this phenomenon was during the 1990s, when they were in the negatives for 5 consecutive years.[3]

Interprovincial migration in British Columbia
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 57,396 42,753 14,643
2008 / 2009 51,061 41,066 9,995
2009 / 2010 49,469 40,741 8,728
2010 / 2011 47,854 44,433 3,421
2011 / 2012 48,593 51,304 -2,711
2012 / 2013 43,830 45,698 -1,868
2013 / 2014 52,281 42,806 9,475
2014 / 2015 61,026 40,647 20,379
2015 / 2016 63,788 37,215 26,573
2016 / 2017 59,583 43,420 16,163

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

ManitobaEdit

Manitoba is one of the provinces most affected by Interprovincial migration, having had a negative mobility ratio for 42 out of 46 years from 1971 to 2017. This is the second worst record for years of negative interprovincial migration, followed only by Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Manitoba
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 12,711 16,414 -3,703
2008 / 2009 11,916 15,027 -3,111
2009 / 2010 11,786 14,198 -2,412
2010 / 2011 11,085 14,602 -3,517
2011 / 2012 11,443 15,655 -4,212
2012 / 2013 9,988 14,994 -5,006
2013 / 2014 9,452 16,303 -6,851
2014 / 2015 10,022 16,700 -6,678
2015 / 2016 10,994 15,875 -4,881
2016 / 2017 10,336 17,242 -6,906

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

New BrunswickEdit

New Brunswick has typically experienced less emigration than its size and economic situation would suggest, probably because of the low rate of emigration of its francophone population.[1] However, New Brunswick is predicted to continue low or negative population growth in the long term due to interprovincial migration and a low birth rate.[18]

Interprovincial migration in New Brunswick
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 11,677 12,585 -908
2008 / 2009 11,268 11,505 -237
2009 / 2010 10,883 10,312 571
2010 / 2011 10,167 10,325 -158
2011 / 2012 10,044 11,850 -1,806
2012 / 2013 8,517 11,807 -3,290
2013 / 2014 9,055 12,572 -3,517
2014 / 2015 9,184 11,974 -2,790
2015 / 2016 10,248 11,361 -1,113
2016 / 2017 11,105 11,954 -849

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Newfoundland and LabradorEdit

Since it started being recorded in 1971, Newfoundland and Labrador is the province who lost the biggest share of its population to interprovincial migration. Especially high in the 1990s, out-migration from the province was finally curtailed in 2008 and stayed positive through 2014, until the province's bleak finances and rising unemployment (caused by falling oil prices) made it return.[3] Following the 2016 provincial budget, St. John's Telegram columnist Russell Wangersky published a column called "Get out if you Can", urging you Newfoundlanders not tied to a mortgage to leave the provinces to avoid future hardships.[19]

Interprovincial migration in Newfoundland and Labrador
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 9,759 10,287 -528
2008 / 2009 10,262 8,385 1,877
2009 / 2010 8,998 7,440 1,558
2010 / 2011 7,785 7,755 30
2011 / 2012 8,173 7,628 545
2012 / 2013 7,283 6,788 495
2013 / 2014 6,994 6,760 234
2014 / 2015 7,012 6,851 161
2015 / 2016 6,600 6,368 232
2016 / 2017 5,755 7,709 -1,954

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Nova ScotiaEdit

From 1971 to 2012, Nova Scotia had a persistent negative trend in net interprovincial out-migration. Combined with a declining birth rate, this poses a significant demographic challenge for the province, as its population is projected to reduce from 948,000 people in 2011 to 926,000 people in 2038. The destinations for Nova Scotia migrants was most often Ontario, but Alberta became more important by the turn of the XXI century, and New Brunswick ranks as a distant third.[20]

Interprovincial migration in Nova Scotia
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 15,990 17,784 -1,794
2008 / 2009 15,467 16,218 -751
2009 / 2010 15,172 14,560 612
2010 / 2011 14,553 14,594 -41
2011 / 2012 14,410 17,276 -2,866
2012 / 2013 12,630 16,147 -3,517
2013 / 2014 13,402 15,973 -2,571
2014 / 2015 13,854 16,165 -2,311
2015 / 2016 15,107 14,353 754
2016 / 2017 15,616 14,971 645

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

OntarioEdit

Ontario's interprovincial migrations have shifted over they years. It was negative in the 1970s, positive in the 1980s, but then negative again in the 1990s. It went back to the positive in around the time of the turn of the millenium for a few years, but has been in the negatives constantly from 2003 to 2015, and has been in the positives since then. Over the period from 1971 to 2015, Ontario was the province who experience the second lowest levels of interprovincial in-migration and out-migration, second only to Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Ontario
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 61,718 76,468 -14,750
2008 / 2009 57,458 73,059 -15,601
2009 / 2010 59,741 64,403 -4,662
2010 / 2011 58,317 62,324 -4,007
2011 / 2012 60,459 71,070 -10,611
2012 / 2013 54,678 68,579 -13,901
2013 / 2014 57,415 71,979 -14,564
2014 / 2015 62,874 71,569 -8,695
2015 / 2016 71,790 62,713 9,077
2016 / 2017 83,913 58,224 25,689

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Prince Edward IslandEdit

Since 1971, Prince Edward Island mostly had years of positive interprovincial migration. However, in the 2010s, it turned to the negative. Interprovincial migration is now draining more people out of the province than they can be replenished, as interprovincial migration exceeded net immigration to the province in 2015.[21]

Interprovincial migration in Prince Edward Island
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 2,821 3,112 -291
2008 / 2009 2,522 3,058 -536
2009 / 2010 2,709 2,649 60
2010 / 2011 2,494 2,704 -210
2011 / 2012 2,620 3,238 -618
2012 / 2013 2,294 3,195 -901
2013 / 2014 2,198 3,139 -941
2014 / 2015 2,367 3,049 -682
2015 / 2016 2,874 2,844 30
2016 / 2017 3,268 3,704 -436

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

QuebecEdit

Since it started being recorded in 1971, Quebec has had negative interprovincial migration every year, and Quebec has seen the largest net loss of people due to interprovincial migration during this time (without adjusting for population).[3] Between 1981 and 2017, Quebec lost 229,700 people below the age of 45 to interprovincial migration.[22] However, if we adjust for population, Quebec has lost significantly less people as a share of their population than other provinces. This is due to the very low migration rate of francophone quebeckers, and anglophone quebeckers are much more likely to leaver Quebec than francophones.[1] However, Quebec receives much less in-migrants from other provinces than average.[3]

In Quebec, Allophones are more likely to migrate out of the province than average: between 1996 and 2001, over 19,170 migrated to other provinces; 18,810 of whom migrated to Ontario.[23]

Interprovincial Migration Between Quebec and Other Provinces and Territories by Mother Tongue Source: Statistics Canada[24]
Mother Tongue / Year 1971–1976 1976–1981 1981–1986 1986–1991 1991–1996 1996–2001 Total
French -4,100 -18,000 -12,900 5,200 1,200 -8,900 -37,500
English -52,200 -106,300 -41,600 -22,200 -24,500 -29,200 -276,000
Other -5,700 -17,400 -8,700 -8,600 -14,100 -19,100 -73,600
Interprovincial migration in Quebec
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 20,102 31,784 -11,682
2008 / 2009 20,307 27,726 -7,419
2009 / 2010 21,048 24,306 -3,258
2010 / 2011 19,884 24,647 -4,763
2011 / 2012 20,179 27,094 -6,915
2012 / 2013 16,879 27,310 -10,431
2013 / 2014 16,536 30,848 -14,312
2014 / 2015 16,611 32,753 -16,142
2015 / 2016 19,259 30,377 -11,118
2016 / 2017 22,007 32,766 -10,759

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

SaskatchewanEdit

Interprovincial migration has long been a demographic challenge for Saskatchewan, and it was often said that "Saskatchewan's most valuable export [was] its young people".[25] The trend reversed in 2006 as the nascent oil fracking industry started growing in the province, but went back to the negatives starting in 2013. Most people migrating from Saskatchewan are moving to Alberta or British Columbia.[26]

Interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan
In-migrants Out-migrants Net migration
2007 / 2008 20,197 16,026 4,171
2008 / 2009 18,127 15,144 2,983
2009 / 2010 17,237 15,084 2,153
2010 / 2011 16,602 16,057 545
2011 / 2012 19,386 17,508 1,878
2012 / 2013 16,982 16,590 392
2013 / 2014 16,371 18,210 -1,839
2014 / 2015 15,346 19,874 -4,528
2015 / 2016 15,260 19,532 -4,272
2016 / 2017 15,065 20,680 -5,615
2017 / 2018 13,556 22,639 -9,083

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b c d e Finnie, Ross (2004). School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University and Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada. "Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada". Applied Economics. 36: 1759–1779.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Statistics Canada, table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, annual.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Interprovincial Migration in Canada: Quebeckers Vote with Their Feet" (PDF). www.fraserinstitute.org. Retrieved 2018-12-26.
  4. ^ Thornton, Patricia A. (Autumn 1985). "The Problem of Out-Migration from Atlantic Canada, 1871-1921: A New Look". Acadiensis. XV (1): 3–34. ISSN 0044-5851. JSTOR 30302704.
  5. ^ Bélanger, Damien-Claude (23 August 2000). "French Canadian Emigration to the United States, 1840–1930". Québec History, Claude Bélanger, Marianopolis College. Archived from the original on 25 January 2007. Retrieved 2007-01-31.
  6. ^ Bélanger, Claude. "Emigration to the United States from Canada and Quebec, 1840–1940". Quebec History. Marianopolis College. Retrieved 24 July 2013.
  7. ^ Robert Craig Brown, and Ramsay Cook, Canada, 1896-1921: A nation transformed (1974) pp 253-62
  8. ^ Sprague, DN. Canada and the Métis, 1869–1885. Waterloo, ON: Wilfrid Laurier University Press; 1988. ISBN 0-88920-964-2. p. 33–67, 89–129.
  9. ^ Carr-Steward, Sheila (2001). "A Treaty Right to Education" (PDF). Canadian Journal of Education.
  10. ^ Lambrecht, Kirk N (1991). The Administration of Dominion Lands, 1870-1930.
  11. ^ a b "Dominion Lands Act | The Canadian Encyclopedia". www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  12. ^ The history of Saskatchewan's population from Statistics Canada
  13. ^ a b c Lew, Byron; Cater, Bruce (May 2011). "Interprovincial Migration in Canada, 1911–1951 and Beyond" (PDF). people.trentu.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  14. ^ Amirault, David; de Munnik, Daniel; Miller, Sarah (Spring 2013). "Explaining Canada's regional Migration Patterns" (PDF). www.bankofcanada.ca. Bank of Canada Review. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  15. ^ a b December 21, Jonny Wakefield Updated:; 2017 (2017-12-21). "Alberta no longer a loser on interprovincial migration | Edmonton Journal". Retrieved 2018-12-26.
  16. ^ a b Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada; Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2017-02-06). "Interprovincial migration of French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec". aem. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  17. ^ "The death of the Alberta dream - Macleans.ca". www.macleans.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  18. ^ "The Implications of New Brunswick's Population Forecasts" (PDF). www.nbjobs.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  19. ^ Apr 19, Sue Bailey · The Canadian Press · Posted:; April 19, 2016 4:24 PM NT | Last Updated:; 2016. "Exodus? Newfoundland and Labrador's bleak finances fuel angst for the future | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  20. ^ Rashti, Amir Ahmadi; Koops, Adrian; Covey, Spencer (Spring 2015). "The Effects of Capital on Interprovincial Migration: A Nova Scotia Focused Assessment". Dalhousie Journal of Interdisciplinary Management. 11: 28.
  21. ^ Aug 16, Kevin Yarr · CBC News · Posted:; August 16, 2016 11:00 AM AT | Last Updated:; 2016. "Immigration not keeping pace with people leaving P.E.I. | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  22. ^ Serebrin, Jacob; July 26, Montreal Gazette Updated:; 2018 (2018-07-26). "Quebec losing young people to interprovincial migration, report shows | Montreal Gazette". Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  23. ^ Net population gains or losses from interprovincial migration by language group, provinces and territories, 1991-1996 and 1996-2001
  24. ^ "Factors Affecting the Evolution of Language Groups". Statistics Canada. Archived from the original on 2008-06-12. Retrieved 2006-10-27.
  25. ^ Elliot, Doug (2005). Interprovincial Migration - in the Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. Regina: Canadian Plains Research Center, University of Regina. pp. 483–484.
  26. ^ "Exodus of Saskatchewan residents to Alberta, British Columbia, continues to plague province | Globalnews.ca". globalnews.ca. 2018-06-06. Retrieved 2018-12-28.

External linksEdit