Wikipedia

Draft:Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis'


Clinical prediction models (or clinical prediction rules) are tools used to that use medical signs, symptoms and other patient information to estimate the probability of a specific undiagnosed disease or clinical outcome (to aid diagnosis) or to estimate the probability that specific disease or clinical outcome will occur in the future (to aid prognosis)[1]. Examples of prediction models include QRISK[2] that predicts the probability of cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years, or EuroSCORE for predicting the risk of death after a heart operation[3].

To be used in clinical practice, health technology assessment groups, policy makers and regulators need to understand how a prediction model was developed and the accuracy of the model in predicting the clinical outcome. However, numerous studies investigating the completeness of information that medical researchers include in their studies describing the development and validation of a clinical prediction model have shown that important details needed to understand why a clinical prediction model was developed, how it was developed and validated (i.e., it's predictive performance evaluated), the clinical decision it is intended to support are often missing[4][5][6]. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) encompasses various initiatives developed by the TRIPOD Group to alleviate the problems arising from inadequate reporting of Clinical prediction rules in the published medical research literature.

The TRIPOD guidelines are part of the larger international EQUATOR Network initiative to enhance the transparency and accuracy of reporting in research, and are widely endorsed by medical journals.

TRIPOD Statement edit

The main product of the TRIPOD Group is the TRIPOD Statement[7], which is an evidence-based, minimum set of recommendations for reporting Clinical prediction rules in the form of a checklist. Authors complete the checklist indicating the page of the manuscript where they have addressed and reported each details requested in the checklist. The completed checklist is then submitted with the manuscript when the authors publish the research.

TRIPOD offers a standardised way for authors to prepare reports of clinical prediction models, facilitating their complete and transparent reporting, reducing the influence of bias on their results, and aiding their critical appraisal and interpretation. The checklist of reporting recommendations were published in 11 leading medical journals including Annals of Internal Medicine[8], British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology[9], BMC Medicine, BMJ[10], British Journal of Cancer[11], British Journal of Surgery[12], Circulation[13], Diabetic Medicine[14], European Journal of Clinical Investigation[15], European Urology[16] and the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology[17].

The TRIPOD "Explanation and Elaboration" document[18] explains and illustrates the principles underlying the TRIPOD Statement, it also gives authors examples of good reporting to help them write their own research article. It is strongly recommended that it be used in conjunction with the TRIPOD Statement.[7]

Considered an evolving document[18], the TRIPOD Statement is subject to periodic changes as new evidence emerges; the most recent update was published in April 2024[19]. The most recent version of the TRIPOD statement, now includes evidence-based recommendations for reporting prediction models that have been developing using artificial intelligence powered by machine learning methods and published in the BMJ[20]

Extensions edit

Extensions of the TRIPOD Statement have been developed to give additional guidance for prediction model studies that have accounted for clustering such has accounting for data from different hospitals or countries[21]. Other TRIPOD guidance includes guidance for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of clinical prediction models[22], and TRIPOD for Abstracts for providing recommendations for reporting journal and conference abstracts[23].

Similar initiatives to improve the reporting of other types of research have arisen after the introduction of CONSORT. They include: Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE),[24] Standards for the Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (STARD),[25] Strengthening the Reporting of Genetic Association studies (STREGA),[26] Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA),[27], Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence (SQUIRE),[28] among others. These reporting guidelines have been incorporated into the EQUATOR Network initiative to enhance the transparent and accurate reporting of research studies.[29]. These reporting guidelines have been incorporated into the EQUATOR Network initiative to enhance the transparent and accurate reporting of research studies.[30]

References edit

  1. ^ Steyerberg, Ewout W. (2019). Clinical Prediction Models: A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating. Statistics for Biology and Health. Cham: Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-16399-0. ISBN 978-3-030-16398-3.
  2. ^ Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol; Vinogradova, Yana; Robson, John; May, Margaret; Brindle, Peter (2007-07-21). "Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study". BMJ. 335 (7611): 136. doi:10.1136/bmj.39261.471806.55. ISSN 0959-8138. PMC 1925200. PMID 17615182.
  3. ^ Nashef, S.A.M.; Roques, F.; Michel, P.; Gauducheau, E.; Lemeshow, S.; Salamon, R. (July 1999). "European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE)". European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. 16 (1): 9–13. doi:10.1016/S1010-7940(99)00134-7. ISSN 1873-734X. PMID 10456395.
  4. ^ Bouwmeester, Walter; Zuithoff, Nicolaas P. A.; Mallett, Susan; Geerlings, Mirjam I.; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G. M. (2012-05-22). Macleod, Malcolm R. (ed.). "Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review". PLOS Medicine. 9 (5): e1001221. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001221. ISSN 1549-1676. PMC 3358324. PMID 22629234.
  5. ^ Andaur Navarro, Constanza L.; Damen, Johanna A. A.; Takada, Toshihiko; Nijman, Steven W. J.; Dhiman, Paula; Ma, Jie; Collins, Gary S.; Bajpai, Ram; Riley, Richard D.; Moons, Karel G. M.; Hooft, Lotty (December 2022). "Completeness of reporting of clinical prediction models developed using supervised machine learning: a systematic review". BMC Medical Research Methodology. 22 (1): 12. doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01469-6. ISSN 1471-2288. PMC 8759172. PMID 35026997.
  6. ^ Dhiman, Paula; Ma, Jie; Navarro, Constanza Andaur; Speich, Benjamin; Bullock, Garrett; Damen, Johanna AA; Kirtley, Shona; Hooft, Lotty; Riley, Richard D; Van Calster, Ben; Moons, Karel G.M.; Collins, Gary S. (October 2021). "Reporting of prognostic clinical prediction models based on machine learning methods in oncology needs to be improved". Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 138: 60–72. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.06.024. PMC 8592577. PMID 34214626.
  7. ^ a b Collins GS, Reitsma HB, Altman DG, Moons KGM. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement. Ann Intern Med. 2015;162:55-63
  8. ^ Collins, G S; Reitsma, J B; Altman, D G; Moons, K G M (2015-01-27). "Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD Statement". British Journal of Surgery. 102 (3): 148–158. doi:10.1002/bjs.9736. ISSN 0007-1323. PMID 25627261.
  9. ^ Collins, Gs; Reitsma, Jb; Altman, Dg; Moons, Kgm (2015). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis ( TRIPOD ): the TRIPOD statement". BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology. 122 (3): 434–443. doi:10.1111/1471-0528.13244. ISSN 1470-0328. PMID 25623578.
  10. ^ Collins, G. S.; Reitsma, J. B.; Altman, D. G.; Moons, K. G. M. (2015). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis ( TRIPOD ): the TRIPOD Statement". Diabetic Medicine. 32 (2): 146–154. doi:10.1111/dme.12654. ISSN 0742-3071. PMID 25600898.
  11. ^ Collins, G S; Reitsma, J B; Altman, D G; Moons, K G M (2015). "Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD statement". British Journal of Cancer. 112 (2): 251–259. doi:10.1038/bjc.2014.639. ISSN 0007-0920. PMC 4454817. PMID 25562432.
  12. ^ Collins, Gary S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G.M. (2015-01-13). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement". Circulation. 131 (2): 211–219. doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.014508. ISSN 0009-7322. PMC 4297220. PMID 25561516.
  13. ^ Collins, Gary S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G.M. (2015-01-13). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement". Circulation. 131 (2): 211–219. doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.014508. ISSN 0009-7322. PMC 4297220. PMID 25561516.
  14. ^ Collins, G. S.; Reitsma, J. B.; Altman, D. G.; Moons, K. G. M. (2015). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis ( TRIPOD ): the TRIPOD Statement". Diabetic Medicine. 32 (2): 146–154. doi:10.1111/dme.12654. ISSN 0742-3071. PMID 25600898.
  15. ^ Collins, Gary S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G.M. (February 2015). "Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis ( TRIPOD ): the TRIPOD S tatement". European Journal of Clinical Investigation. 45 (2): 204–214. doi:10.1111/eci.12376. ISSN 0014-2972. PMID 25623047.
  16. ^ Collins, Gary S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G.M. (June 2015). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement". European Urology. 67 (6): 1142–1151. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2014.11.025. PMID 25572824.
  17. ^ Collins, G. S.; Reitsma, J. B.; Altman, D. G.; Moons, K. G. M. (February 2015). "Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis ( TRIPOD ): the TRIPOD Statement". Diabetic Medicine. 32 (2): 146–154. doi:10.1111/dme.12654. ISSN 0742-3071. PMID 25600898.
  18. ^ a b Moons KGM, Altman DG, Reitsma JB, Ioannidis JPA, Macaskill P, Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ, Ransohoff DF, Collins GS. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): Explanation and Elaboration. Ann Intern Med. 2015;:162: W1-W73
  19. ^ Collins, Gary S; Moons, Karel G M; Dhiman, Paula; Riley, Richard D; Beam, Andrew L; Van Calster, Ben; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Liu, Xiaoxuan; Reitsma, Johannes B; van Smeden, Maarten; Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Camaradou, Jennifer Catherine; Celi, Leo Anthony; Denaxas, Spiros; Denniston, Alastair K (2024-04-16). "TRIPOD+AI statement: updated guidance for reporting clinical prediction models that use regression or machine learning methods". BMJ. 385: e078378. doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-078378. ISSN 1756-1833. PMC 11019967. PMID 38626948.
  20. ^ Collins GS, Moons KGM, Dhiman P, Riley RD, et al. TRIPOD+AI statement: updated guidance for reporting clinical prediction models that use regression or machine learning methods. BMJ. 2024;385: e078378
  21. ^ Debray TP, Collins GS, Snell KIE, Van Calster B, Reitsma JB, Moons KG. Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data: TRIPOD-Cluster checklist. BMJ 2023; 380:e07018.
  22. ^ Snell KIE, Levis B, Damen JAA, Dhiman P, Moons KGM, Collins GS, Riley RD. Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models for individual prognosis or diagnosis: checklist for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (TRIPOD-SRMA). BMJ 2023; 381:e073538.
  23. ^ Heus, Pauline; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Collins, Gary S.; Damen, Johanna A.A.G.; Scholten, Rob J.P.M.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G.M.; Hooft, Lotty (2020-07-07). "Transparent Reporting of Multivariable Prediction Models in Journal and Conference Abstracts: TRIPOD for Abstracts". Annals of Internal Medicine. 173 (1): 42–47. doi:10.7326/M20-0193. ISSN 0003-4819. PMID 32479165.
  24. ^ Vandenbroucke JP. The making of STROBE. Epidemiology 2007;18: 797e9.
  25. ^ Knottnerus JA, Tugwell P. The standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy. J Clin Epidemiol 2003;56:1118e27
  26. ^ Little J, Higgins JPT, Ioannidis JPA, Moher D, Gagnon F, Von Elm E, et al. STrengthening the REporting of Genetic Association studies (STREGA)-an extension of the STROBE Statement. J Clin Epidemiol 2009;62:597e608
  27. ^ Liberati A, Altman DG, Tetzlaff J, Mulrow C, Gøtzsche P, et al. and the PRISMA Group (2009) The PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies that evaluate health care interventions: Explanation and elaboration. PLoS Med 6: e1000100. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000100
  28. ^ Davidoff F, Batalden P, Stevens D, Ogrinc G, Mooney S, SQUIRE Development Group. Publication guidelines for improvement studies in health care: evolution of the SQUIRE Project. Ann Intern Med 2008;149:670e6
  29. ^ Simera I, Altman DG, Moher D, Schulz K, Hoey J. The EQUATOR Network: facilitating transparent and accurate reporting of health research. Serials 2008 Nov 21 (3): 183-87
  30. ^ Simera I, Altman DG, Moher D, Schulz K, Hoey J. The EQUATOR Network: facilitating transparent and accurate reporting of health research. Serials 2008 Nov 21 (3): 183-87
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