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2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona.

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2020 (special) November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic



Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election with 51.2% of the vote and is running for reelection to a full term. Republican John McCain was reelected to his seat in 2016. McCain died on August 25, 2018; former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of the year and was replaced by former U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost to Kelly in a special election in 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Democratic candidates[a]

Endorsements

Mark Kelly
Executive Branch officals
Organizations

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Republican candidates[a]

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Blake Masters
Federal Officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Brnovich 		Jim
Lamon 		Blake
Masters 		Michael
McGuire 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 311 (RV) ± 5.6% 27% 3% 6% 14% – 51%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[A] September 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 5% 7% 4% – 43%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) May 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 28% – 1% 1% – 61%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kirk
Adams 		Andy
Biggs 		Doug
Ducey 		Jim
Lehman 		Blake
Masters 		Michael
McGuire 		Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] April 5–6, 2021 505 (LV) ± 4.4% – 46% 45% – – – – 9%
OH Predictive Insights March 8–12, 2021 690 (RV) ± 3.7% 2%[c] 27% – – 2% 3% – 67%
6%[d] 26% – – 2% 10% – 56%
Data Orbital (R)[C] February 17–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 36% – 1% 1% 3% 4% 53%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Lean D July 16, 2021
Inside Elections[28] Battleground October 8, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] Lean D March 11, 2021

Polling

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Mark
Brnovich (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 39% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Jim
Lamon (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 36% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Blake
Masters (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 35% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Michael
McGuire (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 19%
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 35% 21%
Hypothetical polling
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Andy
Biggs (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Kelli
Ward (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 35% 19%
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Jack
McCain (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 29% 28%
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Kimberly
Yee (R) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 35% 19%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  4. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee

References

  1. ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  2. ^ "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021. He's [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
  3. ^ a b "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.
  4. ^ "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.
  5. ^ a b Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021. The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
  6. ^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
  7. ^ "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.
  8. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the 1st Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  9. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". FOX Business. Retrieved July 10, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  10. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
  11. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  12. ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  13. ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  14. ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.
  15. ^ Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  16. ^ Moon, Duncan. "Gov. Ducey says he will not run for senate seat in 2022". Arizona Public Media. Retrieved January 24, 2021.
  17. ^ Gosar, Paul. "Gosar announces re-election". Twitter. Retrieved June 1, 2021.
  18. ^ Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.
  19. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  20. ^ Daniel McCarthy [@DemandDanielAZ] (December 8, 2020). "Jim, thank you! I am not a state Rep. State Reps have signed it, but I am setting up a run for Governor of Arizona. The source you republished got it wrong. I'll be on the War Room with Owen Shroyer around 4:30 ET to give the latest" (Tweet). Retrieved January 15, 2020 – via Twitter.
  21. ^ Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
  22. ^ "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
  23. ^ Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
  24. ^ Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
  25. ^ Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "POLITICO Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.
  26. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  27. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  28. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  29. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
Official campaign websites
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