COVID-19 Origin Scenarios edit
Nature-only scenarios
- A: Natural spillover (bats to humans or bats + intermediate animal to humans)
Lab-research related scenarios
- B: Sampling and sequencing pathogens from animals or people
- C: Culturing and infection assays in cells or animal models
- D: Minor genetic engineering (e.g. passaging for virulence)
- E: Major genetic engineering (e.g. passaging for transmissibility and virulence and antigenicity in same chimera)
Other scenarios
- F: Cold chain trade inside China (not international trade)
- G: Magical Meteorites
| A | B, C, D, E | F | G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Are there reliable sources quoting reputable scientists who think this is a plausible hypothesis to be investigated? | Yes | Yes | Yes. Mainly the WHO-convened expert team, which is half international experts and half Chinese, and therefore may not be considered reliable as per WP policy. | No |
| Is there a well-documented precedent of a coronavirus infection being acquired this way? | Yes, several times in different countries. Close relatives to SARS2 have been found in nature. | Yes, in different labs in different countries. Close relatives to SARS2 have been collectioned and studies in labs in China. | Yes | No |
| Is there direct evidence of this being how Covid/SARS2 emerged? | No. No original animal source of SARS2 progenitor or siblings reported by China or any other country. | No. No SARS2 precursor reported in the labs in China or any other country. | No. No original source of frozen foods reported to have SARS2 precursor. | No |
| Does the location of Wuhan make sense as the first detected site of SARS2 emergence? | Possibly, if the spillover occurred where the SARS2-like viruses are found hundreds of miles away and the original virus transmitted to and resulted in in an outbreak only in WUhan. Wuhan was not a SARS spillover zone. | Yes, there are at least 2 labs in Wuhan collecting and studying bat coronaviruses collected across China. One hosts presumably the largest collection of SARS-like virus sequences in the world. | Possibly, if transmission of the original virus from the frozen food, leading to an outbreak, only occured in Wuhan and not in any other city including the original source of the frozen food. | - |
| Do any reliable sources, scholarly or otherwise rule out out the hypothesis? | No | No but WHO-convened study, when released, is expected to say that it does not have the mandate to investigate the hypothesis further. | No | - |
| Are all available data consistent with the hypothesis? | Yes. Furin cleavage site could have arisen naturally. | Yes. Furin cleavage site could have been engineered. | Yes | - |
| Is the hypothesis been investigated in an open and transparent way? | Yes | No | Yes | - |