Nigeria, with the highest average per capita GDP ($1,467 PPP, 1980-2008) in the following group of nine sub-Saharan African nations, is likely in 2015 to have made the poorest performance on achieving the first five United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDG), with an average achievement of 24.5%, while Ethiopia, with the second-lowest per capita income ($560) in the sample is forecast to have the highest MDG achievement rate (95%):


  Predicted % Achievement of MDG Target by 2015
(summary of following tables)
Financial flows per capita
MDG1,
Target 1
(Halve Poverty)
MDG1,
Target 3
(Halve hunger)
MDG2
(100% Primary
School Enrolment)
MDG3
(100% Female
School Enrolment)
MDG4
(2/3 decrease
in U5MR)
MDG5
(3/4 decrease
Mat.Mort.)
Average, MDG 1-5 Average annual ODA
+ FDI +
Remittances
per capita,
1980-2008 (1)
(constant 2004 US$)
(World Bank)
Annual Capital
Flight per capita,
1980-2008,
2004 $
(2)
(ODA+FDI+Remitt.)
- Capital Flight
(const. 2004$)
Average GDP
per cap., PPP,
1980-2008,
constant 2005 $
(1)
Burkina Faso 94.2% 109.0% 76.6% 77.4% 61.9% 55.2% 74.5% $67.61 $4.33 $63.28 $830.94
Ethiopia 132.5% 114.7% 100.0% 100.0% 86.9% 66.3% 95.4% $23.23 $10.13 $13.10 $560.46
Ghana 103.9% 184.6% 59.2% 68.2% 65.1% 44.7% 76.3% $53.59 $9.44 $44.15 $989.89
Kenya 144.5% 31.3% 100.0% 100.0% 37.9% 15.7% 68.3% $48.89 $6.46 $42.43 $1,336.82
Mali 131.1% 90.2% 100.0% 100.0% 65.0% 34.5% 82.0% $77.73 $23.49 $54.24 $773.18
Mozambique 59.8% 112.9% 100.0% 100.0% 72.4% -113.0% 49.2% $79.98 $11.93 $68.05 $472.92
Nigeria 35.1% 134.7% 24.6% 33.5% 34.9% -55.6% 24.5% $31.81 $57.75 -$25.94 $1,466.58
Uganda 72.2% 68.8% 100.0% 100.0% 54.7% 65.2% 78.1% $45.73 $8.65 $37.07 $700.77
Zambia 6.8% -46.9% 100.0% 100.0% 56.1% -2.8% 46.6% $116.89 $31.47 $85.42 $1,199.28
Sources:
(1) World Bank. "World Development Indicators", databank.worldbank.org. Accessed September 2010.
(2) Global Financial Integrity. 2010. "Illicit Financial Flows from Africa: Hidden Resource for Development",
Dev Kar & Devon Cartwright-Smith, pp. 34-36, Real Illicit Financial Flows (CED+GER): 1970-2008 ($US millions 2004 deflated)
http://www.gfip.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=300&Itemid=75


Why the enormous Ethiopia-Nigeria discrepancy when they have nearly equivalent Human Development Index rankings (Nigeria: 0.511 & rank 158th, Ethiopia: 0.411 & rank 171st in 2007)? One possible explanation is the extent of ethnic diversity: according to the Ethnologue database of world languages, there are 521 languages currently spoken in Nigeria (about 3.3 languages per one million inhabitants) compared to Ethiopia's 88 (1.0 language per million Ethiopians); Nigeria is hence three times more culturally diverse than Ethiopia, and thus more challenging to govern (Ethnologue Languages of the World, Statistical Summaries, http://www.ethnologue.com/ethno_docs/distribution.asp?by=country).


Another interpretation is the "resource curse" of oil. Nigeria is the only nation in the above nine-nation set in which, on a per capita basis averaged over the period 1980-2008 in US dollars, the "illicit" outflows of capital ("capital flight", $58) exceed the sum of inflows from foreign aid ($13 per Nigerian), foreign investment ($6), and home remittances by expatriate workers ($11) by nearly double ($58 lost vs. $30 gained per Nigerian). For every dollar of aid money, foreign investment and expatriate Nigerian workers' earnings sent back to Nigeria, two dollars is fleeing the country for foreign bank accounts. Restricting the time window to only the 2000s, the situation is even worse: for every $66 annually entering Nigeria in aid, investment and remittances, $132 has exited via capital flight.


Annual Average Flows per Nigerian (US dollars)
1980-89 1990-99 2000-08 1980-2008
Foreign direct investment,
net (BoP, current US$)
$4.81 $10.71 $24.13 $12.84
Net official development
assistance received
(current US$)
$0.91 $2.05 $17.55 $6.47
Workers' remittances
and compensation of
employees, received
(current US$)
$0.14 $6.98 $27.07 $10.86
Sum of per capita
FDI Net inflows+
Net ODA+
Workers' remittances
(current US$ per capita)
$5.86 $19.74 $69.37 $30.36
Sum of per capita
FDI Net inflows+
Net ODA+
Workers' remittances
(constant 2004 US$ per capita)
$8.76 $23.90 $66.20 $31.81
Real Illicit Financial
Flows:
1980-2008
($US millions 2004 deflated)
$31.37 $17.71 $131.54 $57.75
(Aid, Investment, Remittances)
Inflows minus Illicit Financial Outflows
-$22.61 $6.19 -$65.34 -$25.94
Sources
World Bank, World Development Indicators except for:
Illicit Financial Flows: Global Financial Integrity: Illicit Financial Flows from Africa:
Hidden Resource for Development, Dev Kar & Devon Cartwright-Smith, Global Financial Integrity,

March 2010, http://www.gfip.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=300&Itemid=75



For every dollar of aid money, foreign investment and expatriate Nigerian workers' earnings sent back to Nigeria, two dollars is fleeing the country for foreign bank accounts. By contrast, for the other eight nations, illicit capital flight is one-tenth to one-half the sum of the other three inflows; for every dollar that is stolen out of those countries' economies, between two and ten dollars enters the country in aid, investment and remittances. The temptation for squandering and diversion is simply too great when entry and exit taps are controlled by a tiny minority. This is not to paint all African leaders as corrupt diverters of international development assistance, as is apparently the perception of some readers, based on comments posted to the Globe and Mail article "Stephen Harper does the UN" by Gerald Caplan (September 17, 2010) "Stephen Harper does the UN" (17 September 2010). The economic welfare of Russian, Venezuelan, Algerian, Syrian, Guyanese and Gabonese societies too may be impaired by their extreme dependence on oil exports: "GNI is too low in these countries in the sense that they are achieving extremely low rates of return on their produced, human, and institutional capital. This is a classic symptom of the resource curse..." (World Bank. 2006. "Where Is The Wealth Of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century", p. 29).


Each country's individual performance prediction is tabulated below by each goal.



MDG1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger.
Target 1. Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day
Measurement variable:
World Development Indicators,
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day
(PPP, 2005) (% of population)
  1990
(or actual
measurement
year)
2010
(or actual
measurement
year)
Projected to 2015
at 1990:current
(linear) trend
Millennium
Development
Goal Target
Projected %
Achievement of
Target in 2015
Burkina Faso 71.2% 56.5% 41.6% 39.3% 94.2%
1994 2003  
Ethiopia 60.5% 39.0% 25.2% 37.3% 132.5%
1995 2005  
Ghana 49.4% 30.0% 23.0% 24.0% 103.9%
1989 2006  
Kenya 38.4% 19.7% 11.8% 21.3% 144.5%
1992 2005  
Mali 86.1% 51.4% 35.0% 50.7% 131.1%
1994 2006  
Mozambique 81.3% 74.7% 63.0% 44.9% 59.8%
1997 2003  
Nigeria 68.5% 64.4% 59.2% 35.9% 35.1%
1996 2004  
Uganda 68.7% 51.5% 43.1% 33.7% 72.2%
1989 2005  
Zambia 65.3% 64.3% 63.3% 32.8% 6.8%
1993 2004  



MDG1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger.
Target 3. Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people who suffer from hunger
Measurement variable:
World Development Indicators,
Prevalence of undernourishment
(% of population)
  1990
(or actual
measurement
year)
2010
(or actual
measurement
year)
Projected to 2015
at 1990:current
(linear) trend
Millennium
Development
Goal Target
Projected %
Achievement of
Target in 2015
Burkina Faso 14.0% 9.0% 6.8% 7.4% 109.0%
1992 2006  
Ethiopia 71.0% 44.0% 32.3% 37.9% 114.7%
1992 2006  
Ghana 34.0% 8.0% 3.2% 20.5% 184.6%
1992 2006  
Kenya 33.0% 30.0% 28.2% 16.7% 31.3%
1992 2006  
Mali 14.0% 10.0% 8.1% 7.3% 90.2%
1992 2006  
Mozambique 59.0% 37.0% 27.4% 31.5% 112.9%
1992 2006  
Nigeria 15.0% 8.0% 5.3% 8.2% 134.7%
1992 2006  
Uganda 19.0% 15.0% 12.9% 9.8% 68.8%
1992 2006  
Zambia 40.0% 45.0% 48.5% 19.7% -46.9%
1992 2006  


MDG2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
Ensure all children, girls and boys,
able to complete full primary schooling
Measurement variable:
World Development Indicators,
School enrollment, primary (% net)
  1990
(or actual
measurement
year)
2010
(or actual
measurement
year)
Projected to 2015
at 1990:current
(linear) trend
Millennium
Development
Goal Target
Projected %
Achievement of
Target in 2015
Burkina Faso 27.3% 60.1% 83.3% 100.0% 76.6%
1991 2008  
Ethiopia 24.0% 78.2% 127.2% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Ghana 56.4% 73.9% 82.6% 100.0% 59.2%
1991 2008  
Kenya 56.4% 81.5% 105.5% 100.0% 100.0%
1998 2008  
Mali 23.1% 71.5% 113.8% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Mozambique 42.1% 79.9% 104.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Nigeria 53.8% 61.4% 65.6% 100.0% 24.6%
1991 2007  
Uganda 51.2% 97.1% 126.4% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Zambia 71.4% 95.2% 116.5% 100.0% 100.0%
1998 2008  


MDG3. Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women:
Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education,
preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015
Measurement variable:
World Development Indicators,
School enrollment, primary, female (% net)
  1991
(or actual
measurement
year)
2008
(or actual
measurement
year)
Projected to 2015
at 1990:current
(linear) trend
Millennium
Development
Goal Target
Projected %
Achievement of
Target in 2015
Burkina Faso 21.5% 55.7% 82.5% 100.0% 77.4%
1991 2008  
Ethiopia 20.5% 75.4% 128.8% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Ghana 53.1% 74.4% 85.5% 100.0% 68.2%
1991 2008  
Kenya 56.7% 82.0% 106.3% 100.0% 100.0%
1998 2008  
Mali 17.4% 65.4% 112.9% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Mozambique 37.0% 77.3% 104.8% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  
Nigeria 46.8% 58.3% 65.0% 100.0% 33.5%
1991 2007  
Uganda 46.4% 98.3% 134.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008      
Zambia 78.7% 95.8% 103.9% 100.0% 100.0%
1991 2008  



MDG4. Reduce Child Mortality:
Two-thirds reduction in
Under-five Mortality Rate
Measurement variable:
Number of children under age 5
who die per 1,000 children
(Rajaratnam JK. 2010. Lancet 375: 1988-2008)
  1990 2010 Projected to 2015
at 1990:current
(linear) trend
Millennium
Development
Goal Target
Projected %
Achievement of
Target in 2015
Burkina Faso 204.7 133.7 120.2 68.2 61.9%
Ethiopia 201.9 101.0 84.9 67.3 86.9%
Ghana 122.2 77.5 69.2 40.7 65.1%
Kenya 103.8 82.2 77.5 34.6 37.9%
Mali 254.0 161.2 143.9 84.7 65.0%
Mozambique 226.6 133.7 117.2 75.5 72.4%
Nigeria 194.1 157.0 148.9 64.7 34.9%
Uganda 167.8 116.7 106.6 55.9 54.7%
Zambia 172.8 118.8 108.2 57.6 56.1%


MDG5. Improve Maternal Health
75% reduction Maternal Mortality Rate, MMR
Measurement variable:
Number of women who die
during childbirth per 100,000
live deliveries
(Hogan MC. 2010. Lancet 375: 1609-1623)
  1990 2008 Projected to 2015
at 1990:current
(linear) trend
Millennium
Development
Goal Target
Projected %
Achievement of
Target in 2015
Burkina Faso 488 332 285.8 122.0 55.2%
Ethiopia 968 590 486.7 242.0 66.3%
Ghana 549 409 364.8 137.3 44.7%
Kenya 452 413 398.8 113.0 15.7%
Mali 831 670 616.2 207.8 34.5%
Mozambique 385 599 711.3 96.3 -113.0%
Nigeria 473 608 670.4 118.3 -55.6%
Uganda 571 352 291.6 142.8 65.2%
Zambia 594 603 606.5 148.5 -2.8%
East Africa 690 508 451.0 172.5 46.2%
West Africa 582 629 648.3 145.5 -15.2%


In 2010, the United Nations Development Programme published hybrid Human Development Index (HDI) indicators covering the period from 1970 to 2010. By this measure, Nigeria's development performance was much more typical of its African peers than from the Millennium Development Goals examined above. Within the nine-nation African cohort, Nigeria's hybrid HDI rose from fifth-highest in 1970 (0.297) to fourth-highest in 2010 (0.478). When separated into the three components over these four decades, Nigeria went from a rank of fifth to third for Education (combined primary, secondary and tertiary level enrolment), from second to first for Income (the logarithm of income per capita), while remaining third-lowest for Health (life expectancy).

Plot of United Nations Development Program "Hybrid Human Development Index" values, 1970 to 2010, for Australia, Burkina Faso, Canada, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Data source:[1]


Notes

edit
  1. ^ United Nations Development Programme. Worldwide Trends in the Human Development Index 1970-2010, web page, http://hdr.undp.org/en/data/trends/ (accessed February 26, 2011).