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Thurrock (UK Parliament constituency)

HistoryEdit

History of boundaries

The seat was created from South East Essex as a result of the interim redistribution carried out for the 1945 general election. It remained unchanged until the redistribution following the reorganisation of local authorities under the Local Government Act 1972 (not coming into force until the 1983 general election), when it lost northern parts to the new constituency of Billericay. There was a small change for the 2010 general election, when East Tilbury was included in the new constituency of South Basildon and East Thurrock.

History of results

The result in 2017 was the 26th-closest nationally (of 650 seats).[2]

All campaigns since the seat's 1945 inception have resulted in a minimum of 26.8% of votes at each election for the main two parties, with Labour or the Conservatives alternating between first and second place. The third-placed party's share of the vote has fluctuated between 31.7% and 20.1% of the vote for UKIP and between 8.1% and 21.7 in the case of the Liberal Democrats and that party's predecessors. The seat attracted two candidates in 1959 and seven in 2015.

Thurrock was for 38 years from and including 1945 a large-majority Labour seat in parliamentary elections. The post-Falklands War election in 1983 gave a majority of less than 4% of the vote to a recently-split Labour Party (the breakaway faction, the SDP, came third). A Conservative gained Thurrock in 1987 with a small majority. In 1992, it was regained by a Labour candidate, Andrew MacKinlay. During his tenure as MP, MacKinlay was criticised for his questioning technique used on weapons expert Dr. David Kelly.

In the 2010 general election, a Conservative gained the seat, with Jackie Doyle-Price being elected as the MP on a majority of 92 votes, the third most marginal in that election.[3] The 2015 result gave the seat the 8th most marginal majority of the Conservative Party's 331 seats by percentage of majority.[4] The seat has had bellwether outcome status since 1997.

Prominent frontbenchers

Dr Oonagh McDonald was Opposition Spokesman on Defence from 1981–1983, and then Opposition Spokesman on Treasury and Economic Affairs from 1983–1987.

Boundaries and boundary changesEdit

 
Thurrock in Essex, showing boundaries used from 1945 to 1950.

1945-1983: The Urban District of Thurrock.[5]

The House of Commons (Redistribution of Seats) Act 1944 set up Boundaries Commissions to carry out periodic reviews of the distribution of parliamentary constituencies. It also authorised an initial review to subdivide abnormally large constituencies in time for the 1945 election.[6] This was implemented by the Redistribution of Seats Order 1945 under which South East Essex was divided into two constituencies. As a consequence, the new Thurrock Division of Essex was formed, comprising the Urban District of Thurrock (created largely from amalgamating the Urban Districts of Grays Thurrock and Tilbury and the Rural District of Orsett).

1983-2010: The Borough of Thurrock wards of Aveley, Belhus, Chadwell St Mary, East Tilbury, Grays Thurrock North, Grays Thurrock Town, Little Thurrock, Ockendon, Stifford, Tilbury, and West Thurrock.[7][8]

Northern areas transferred to the new County Constituency of Billericay.

2010–present: The Borough of Thurrock wards of Aveley and Uplands, Belhus, Chadwell St Mary, Chafford and North Stifford, Grays Riverside, Grays Thurrock, Little Thurrock Blackshots, Little Thurrock Rectory, Ockendon, South Chafford, Stifford Clays, Tilbury Riverside and Thurrock Park, Tilbury St Chads, West Thurrock, and South Stifford.[9]

Following a redistribution of local authority wards, East Tilbury was transferred to the new County Constituency of South Basildon and East Thurrock.

Changes proposed for 2022Edit

The Boundary Commission for England submitted their final proposals in respect of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster Constituencies (the 2018 review) in September 2018. If these proposals are approved by Parliament they will reduce the total number of MPs from 650 to 600 and come into effect at the next UK general election which is due to take place in May 2022 under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

The Commission has recommended that no changes be made to the Thurrock constituency.[10]

Constituency profileEdit

Held by the Conservatives with a majority of just over 300 votes, Thurrock is a marginal seat between the Conservatives and Labour. This industrial Essex seat, east of London, includes the towns of Grays, Tilbury and Purfleet and 18 miles of the north bank of the Thames.

Historically known for quarrying and heavy industry, it is now a retail destination thanks to the Lakeside shopping centre. Retail and distribution are big employers, while Tilbury Power Station has closed and Coryton oil refinery is being redeveloped as a business park. Tilbury is also London's major port, handling millions of tonnes of cargo a year and is a major cruise ship terminal.

Workless claimants, registered jobseekers, were in November 2012 higher than the national average of 3.8%, at 4.8% of the population based on a statistical compilation by The Guardian. The regional average for the Eastern England region was considerably lower, at 3.2% of the population.[11]

Members of ParliamentEdit

ElectionsEdit

 
Thurrock election results

Elections in the 2010sEdit

At the 2015 general election Thurrock, presenting as a two-party ultra-marginal (finely balanced) seat, with a 92-vote majority, became a three-party contest: less than 800 votes determined third place from first. The majority of 536 votes between the two frontrunners could have been overturned by that number of voters divided by two plus one.

In 2017 the seat was number 1 on UKIP's 2017 target list, the party only needing a 0.98% swing to win the seat from third place if the previous result were repeated.[13] The constituency was also at number 7 on Labour's target list, with a 0.54% swing needed for their candidate to win the seat.[14] In the event, the swing to Labour was around 0.2% and Doyle-Price held the seat. This was the third consecutive occasion the seat had been held or won very narrowly.

2017 general election: Thurrock [15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 19,880 39.5  5.8
Labour John Kent 19,535 38.8  6.2
UKIP Tim Aker 10,112 20.1  11.6
Liberal Democrat Kevin McNamara 798 1.6  0.3
Majority 345 0.7
Turnout 50,325 64.4
Conservative hold Swing -0.2
General election 2015: Thurrock[16][17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1
Labour Polly Billington[18] 16,156 32.6 −4.0
UKIP Tim Aker[19] 15,718 31.7 +24.3
Liberal Democrat Rhodri Jamieson-Ball 644 1.3 −9.4
CISTA Jamie Barnes 244 0.5 N/A
Independent Daniel Munyambu 79 0.2 N/A
All People's Party Aba Kristilolu 31 0.1 N/A
Majority 536 1.1
Turnout 49,564 63.9
Conservative hold Swing 0.4
General election 2010: Thurrock[20][21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,869 36.8 +3.6
Labour Carl Morris 16,777 36.6 −9.6
Liberal Democrat Carys Davis 4,901 10.7 −0.4
BNP Emma Colgate 3,618 7.9 +2.1
UKIP Clive Broad 3,390 7.4 +4.0
Christian Peoples Arinola Araba 267 0.6 N/A
Majority 92 0.2
Turnout 45,822 59.1 +4.2
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +6.6

Elections in the 2000sEdit

General election 2005: Thurrock[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Andrew MacKinlay 20,636 47.2 −9.3
Conservative Garry Hague 14,261 32.6 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Earnshaw Palmer 4,770 10.9 +0.6
BNP Nick Geri 2,526 5.8 N/A
UKIP Carol Jackson 1,499 3.4 0.0
Majority 6,375 14.6
Turnout 43,692 54.9 5.9
Labour hold Swing −6.1
General election 2001: Thurrock[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Andrew MacKinlay 21,121 56.5 −6.8
Conservative Mike Penning 11,124 29.8 +3.0
Liberal Democrat John Lathan 3,846 10.3 +2.2
UKIP Christopher Sheppard 1,271 3.4 +1.6
Majority 9,997 26.7
Turnout 37,362 49.0 −16.7
Labour hold Swing

Elections in the 1990sEdit

General election 1997: Thurrock[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Andrew MacKinlay 29,896 63.3 +17.8
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 12,640 26.8 −16.9
Liberal Democrat Joe White 3,843 8.1 −1.4
UKIP Peter Compobassi 833 1.8 N/A
Majority 17,256 36.55
Turnout 47,212 65.79
Labour hold Swing +17.2
General election 1992: Thurrock[25][26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Andrew MacKinlay 24,791 45.9 +4.8
Conservative Tim Janman 23,619 43.7 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Alan J. Banton 5,145 9.5 −7.0
Pensioners' Party Charles Rogers 391 0.7 N/A
Anti-Federalist League Peter Compobassi 117 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,172 2.2 +0.7
Turnout 54,063 78.1 +6.6
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +1.8

Elections in the 1980sEdit

General election 1987: Thurrock[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Tim Janman 20,527 42.5
Labour Oonagh McDonald 19,837 41.0
Social Democratic Donald Benson 7,970 16.5
Majority 690 1.43
Turnout 48,334 71.5
Conservative gain from Labour Swing
General election 1983: Thurrock[28][29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Oonagh McDonald 17,600 39.21
Conservative T Jallon 15,878 35.37
Social Democratic Donald Benson 9,761 21.74
Independent M Bibby 1,200 2.67
BNP R Sinclair 252 0.6
Communist J Paul 199 0.4
Majority 1,722 3.8
Turnout 44,891 67.7
Labour hold Swing

Elections in the 1970sEdit

General election 1979: Thurrock[30]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Oonagh McDonald 33,449 48.55
Conservative Tony Baldry 27,030 39.24
Liberal M Crowson 6,445 9.36
National Front E Burdett 1,358 1.97
Independent B Chattaway 365 0.53
Workers Revolutionary M Daly 242 0.35
Majority 6,419 9.32
Turnout 68,884 75.11
Labour hold Swing
1976 by-election: Thurrock
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Oonagh McDonald 22,191 45.27 -10.30
Conservative Percy Lomax 17,352 35.39 +10.95
Liberal Anthony Charlton 5,977 12.19 -7.80
National Front John Roberts 3,255 6.64 N/A
English National Frank Hansford-Miller 187 0.38 N/A
World Grid Sunshine Room Party Peter Bishop 72 0.15 N/A
Majority 4,839 9.88
Turnout 49,034
Labour hold Swing
General election October 1974: Thurrock
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 34,066 55.57
Conservative P Lomax 14,986 24.44
Liberal A Charlton 12,255 19.99
Majority 19,080 31.12
Turnout 68.54
Labour hold Swing
General election February 1974: Thurrock
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 36,217 52.15
Conservative Graham Bright 17,699 25.48
Liberal Kaye Fleetwood 15,534 22.37
Majority 18,518 26.66
Turnout 78.41
Labour hold Swing
General election 1970: Thurrock Electorate 84,337
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 30,874 55.75
Conservative Graham Bright 19,486 35.18
Liberal Kaye Fleetwood 5,024 9.07
Majority 11,388 20.56
Turnout 55,384 65.67
Labour hold Swing

Elections in the 1960sEdit

General election 1966: Thurrock Electorate 72,502
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 31,998 60.67
Conservative Cedric J Hodgson 14,094 26.72
Liberal James C Moran 6,648 12.61
Majority 17,904 33.95
Turnout 72.74
Labour hold Swing
General election 1964: Thurrock Electorate 71,519
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 30,372 57.22
Conservative Robert McCrindle 14,615 27.53
Liberal A Noel H Blackburn 8,094 15.25
Majority 15,757 29.68
Turnout 53,081 74.22
Labour hold Swing

Elections in the 1950sEdit

General election 1959: Thurrock Electorate 67,054
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 32,270 61.52
Conservative William E McNamara 20,188 38.48
Majority 12,082 23.03
Turnout 52,458 78.23
Labour hold Swing
General election 1955: Thurrock Electorate 63,030
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 31,375 66.16
Conservative Gerald A Petty 16,046 33.84
Majority 15,329 32.33
Turnout 75.24
Labour hold Swing
General election 1951: Thurrock Electorate 53,157
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 28,851 65.55
Conservative Godfrey Lagden 15,166 34.45
Majority 13,685 31.09
Turnout 82.81
Labour hold Swing
General election 1950: Thurrock Electorate 50,962
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Hugh Delargy 22,893 52.68
Conservative Airey Neave 13,306 30.62
Independent Labour Leslie Solley 4,250 9.78
Liberal William Harold Henry Siddons 3,010 6.93
Majority 9,587 22.06
Turnout 85.28
Labour hold Swing

Election in the 1940sEdit

General election 1945: Thurrock
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Leslie Solley 23,171 70.05
Conservative T Adam 9,909 29.95
Majority 13,262 40.09
Turnout 76.89
Labour hold Swing

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ A county constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
  2. ^ As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Electorate Figures – Boundary Commission for England". 2011 Electorate Figures. Boundary Commission for England. 4 March 2011. Archived from the original on 6 November 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011. Cite uses deprecated parameter |deadurl= (help)
  2. ^ Library, House of Commons (23 June 2017). "GE2017: Marginal seats and turnout". Commons Library.
  3. ^ The 2010 marginality of the result placed the seat immediately behind the majorities of Dan Byles (Con), 54 votes and Michelle Gildernew (SF), 2 votes
  4. ^ List of Conservative MPs elected in 2015 by % majority UK Political.info. Retrieved 2017-01-29
  5. ^ Craig, Fred W. S. (1972). Boundaries of parliamentary constituencies 1885-1972;. Chichester,: Political Reference Publications. ISBN 0900178094. OCLC 539011.CS1 maint: extra punctuation (link)
  6. ^ Gay, Oonagh (28 July 2010). "The Rules for the Redistribution of Seats- history and reform". Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  7. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1983". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 September 2019.
  8. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1995". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 September 2019.
  9. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 September 2019.
  10. ^ 2018 Review, Associated consultation documents (September 2018). "Final recommendations report". Boundary Commission for England.
  11. ^ Unemployment claimants by constituency The Guardian
  12. ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "T" (part 1)
  13. ^ "UKIP Target Seats 2022 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk.
  14. ^ "Labour Target Seats 2022 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk.
  15. ^ "STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED, NOTICE OF POLL AND SITUATION OF POLLING STATIONS Election of a Member of Parliament for Thurrock" (PDF). Thurrock Council. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  16. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  17. ^ "Thurrock". bbc.co.uk.
  18. ^ "The Labour Party". labour.org.uk. Archived from the original on 5 August 2013. Cite uses deprecated parameter |deadurl= (help)
  19. ^ "Tim Aker announced as UKIP candidate for Thurrock". Your Thurrock. Retrieved 20 February 2014.
  20. ^ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  21. ^ "BBC NEWS – Election 2010 – Thurrock". BBC News.
  22. ^ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  23. ^ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  24. ^ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  25. ^ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  26. ^ "UK General Election results April 1992". Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
  27. ^ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  28. ^ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  29. ^ "UK General Election results: June 1983 [Archive]". politicsresources.net.
  30. ^ "UK General Election results: May 1979 [Archive]". politicsresources.net.

Coordinates: 51°29′N 0°19′E / 51.48°N 0.32°E / 51.48; 0.32