Template talk:2020 NZ election forecasts

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Forecast listing edit

Latest comment: 3 years ago3 comments3 people in discussion

Presently the forecasts section is mostly restating the latest polls in terms of seats instead of the percentages. That seems a bit pointless, and the word "forecast" implies a deeper analysis than just one poll. So I suggest that "forecasts" based on just one poll are removed, and only analyses based on multiple polls such as Stuff's poll of polls, and models such as that run by the Herald in 2017, and the model of Peter's Stats Stuff (see Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017#Forecasts. I'll also disclose a COI as I run the NZ Election Prediction site that is mentioned alongside Peter's Stat's Stuff on that page as source number 151. AV85647 (talk) 02:55, 21 October 2018 (UTC)Reply

I also wondered whether the forecasts presented should be within the range of perhaps the last 3 months, for example the Stuff-YouGov poll seems to be a bit outdated from December 2019, at a time when the mood of the nation in polling seems to differ signficantly from today. I also wondered whether we might be able to use other models, as well, such as those presented on https://politi.kiwi/? Sleepingstar (talk) 20:49, 26 September 2020 (UTC)Reply

The problem with that is that there really hasn't been that much "proper" forecasting done. I would prefer that this section just become the seats equivalent of the party vote, as it's not immediately obvious from the party vote results, and would be a useful supplement to the party vote table: we should have more forecasts on here, not less. Nixinova T C 06:40, 27 September 2020 (UTC)Reply

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