List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days

A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. On the scale from 1 to 5, a high risk is a level 5; thus, high risks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of a major severe weather outbreak. This is usually for major tornado outbreaks and occasionally derechos and are typically reserved for the most extreme events.[1] They are generally only issued on the day of the event. However, only 2 occurrences (April 7, 2006 and April 14, 2012) of a day 2 high risk are known. A high risk cannot be issued on day 3.[2]

Progression of a well-anticipated high risk event across the Central Plains on April 14, 2012. This event ultimately produced 85 tornadoes that day, one of which killed six people.

High Risk daysEdit

1982–1989Edit

Thirty-four high risks were issued in the 1980s.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 1982–1989[nb 1]
Date Year Region Tornadoes Max rating Peak gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
April 2 1982 Midwest, Southern U.S. 61
F5
30   Tornado outbreak of April 2–3, 1982 - Sixty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5. The first ever PDS Tornado Watch was issued on this date.
December 24 1982 Southern U.S. 26
F4
3   Twenty-six tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.
April 1 1983 Midwest, Southern U.S. 13
F4
2   Thirteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.
July 2 1983 Midwest[3] 3
F1
0   Only three weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1
March 27 1984 Southern U.S.[4] 11
F1
0   Eleven weak tornadoes touched down; six were rated F1.[5]
March 28 1984 Southern U.S.[6][7] 24
F4
57   1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak – Twenty-four tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F4. In addition to the 57 tornadic deaths, 1,249 people were injured.[8]
April 26 1984 Great Plains[9] 28
F4
8   Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[10]
April 29 1984 Midwest, Southern U.S.[11] 42
F4
1   Forty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[12]
May 3 1984 Southern U.S.[13][14] 38
F3
5 Thirty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[15]
October 18 1984 Midwest, Southern U.S.[16] 8
F3
2 Eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[17]
April 21 1985 Upper Midwest[18] 22
F3
3 Twenty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[19]
April 22 1985 Southern U.S.[20] 11
F2
0 Eleven tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.
May 11 1985 Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma[21] 24
F1
0 Twenty-four weak tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[22]
May 13 1985 Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas[23] 14
F2
0 Fourteen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F2.[24]
May 30 1985 Midwest[25] 17
F3
2   Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[26]
July 4 1985 Midwest[27] 3
F1
0 Mainly a wind and hail event.[28] Three weak tornadoes touched down; two were rated F1.[29]
March 11 1986 Southern U.S.[30] 4
F2
0 Four tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[31]
April 19 1986 Southern U.S.[32] 13
F3
1 Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[33]
March 22 1987 Oklahoma, Texas[34] 9
F3
0 Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[35]
May 28 1987 Texas[36] 7
F2
0 Seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[37]
July 20 1987 Michigan[38] 4
F0
0 Produced a derecho with damaging downburst winds.[39] Four weak tornadoes touched down.[40]
November 16 1987 Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi[41] 28
F2
0 Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; six were rated F2.[42]
December 14 1987 Southern U.S.[43] 5
F3
6 Five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[44] The F3 tornado struck the northern portions of the Memphis metropolitan area.
January 19 1988 Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee[45] 14
F4
5   Earliest date that a high risk was issued. Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[46]
March 24 1988 Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri,

Oklahoma, Wisconsin[47]

10
F2
0 Damaging squall line with tornadoes.[48] Ten tornadoes touched down; three were rated F2.[49]
November 4 1988 Southern U.S.[50] 18
F3
0 Eighteen tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[51]
November 15 1988 Midwest[52] 44
F3
7 Late season tornado outbreak. Forty-four tornadoes touched down; three were rated F3.[53]
November 26 1988 Southern U.S.[54] 8
F2
0   Nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[55]
March 5 1989 Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee[56] 9
F3
1 Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[57]
May 16 1989 Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico[58][59] 20
F4
1   Twenty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[60]
May 17 1989 Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[61] 19
F3
1 Nineteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[62]
May 24 1989 Midwest[63] 31
F4
0   Thirty-one tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[64]
June 13 1989 Louisiana, Texas[65] 1
F1
0 Only one tornado touched down.[66] The high risk was issued in the 1300 UTC outlook and removed from all subsequent outlooks.
November 15 1989 Southern U.S.[67] 17
F4
21   November 1989 tornado outbreak – Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[68]

1990–1999Edit

Sixty-four high risks were issued in the 1990s.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 1990–1999[nb 1]
Date Year Region Tornadoes Max rating Peak gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
February 1 1990 Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[69] 1
F1
0 One weak tornado touched down.[70] Only the 1200 UTC outlook included a high risk.
March 14 1990 Southern U.S.[71] 11
F3
1   Eleven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[72]
May 9 1990 Midwest[73] 4
F2
0 Four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[74] Only the 1200 UTC outlook included a high risk.
May 15 1990 Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma[75] 17
F3
1 Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[76]
May 20 1990 Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma[77] 10
F2
0 Ten tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[78] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
May 29 1990 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[79] 9
F2
0 Mainly a damaging wind threat.[80] Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[81] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
June 1 1990 Great Plains[82] 21
F4
2   Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[83]
June 2 1990 Ohio Valley[67] 68
F4
9   June 1990 Lower Ohio Valley tornado outbreak – Sixty-eight tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F4.[84]
March 22 1991 Midwest, Southern U.S.[85] 23
F3
6 Twenty-three tornadoes touched down; three were rated F3.[85]
March 26 1991 Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma[86] 21
F4
0 Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[87] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
March 27 1991 Midwest[88] 29
F3
2 Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; six were rated F3.[89]
March 28 1991 Indiana, Michigan, Ohio[90] 2
F0
0 Two weak tornadoes touched down. Only the 0100 UTC Outlook had a high risk.[91]
March 29 1991 Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina[92] 21
F3
0 First and only occurrence of four consecutive high risk days. Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[93]
April 11 1991 Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle[94] 7
F3
0 Severe weather outbreak did not consolidate due to a lack of moisture and instability anticipated to develop.[67] Seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[95]
April 12 1991 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[67] 24
F3
0 Twenty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[96]
April 26 1991 Central U.S.[67] 55
F5
21   Tornado outbreak of April 26, 1991 – Fifty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[97]
April 28 1991 Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas[67] 13
F2
0 Thunderstorm complex early in the day prevented significant moisture from moving into the region and ultimately limited severe weather activity.[98] Thirteen tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[99]
April 19 1992 Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[100] 4
F1
0 Four weak tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[101]
June 16 1992 Midwest[102] 65
F5
1   Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak – Sixty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[103]
June 17 1992 Great Lakes[104] 28
F3
0 Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak – Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[105]
June 19 1992 Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas[106] 17
F1
0 Seventeen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[107] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
July 2 1992 Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Wisconsin[108] 16
F3
0 Sixteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[109]
September 9 1992 Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri[110] 4
F1
0 Only high risk ever issued in September. Squall line with damaging winds and some large hail.[111] Four weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1.[112]
April 19 1993 Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee[113] 6
F2
0 Six tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[114]
June 3 1993 Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee[115] 0 N/A 0 A high risk was issued for a derecho. No tornadoes were confirmed. Day 1 of 2 for the derecho.
June 4 1993 Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia[116] 13
F1
80 miles per hour (130 km/h) 0 Major derecho event.[117] The Lynchburg, Virginia area was hit the hardest. The city had a wind gust to 80 mph, with significant damage reported. Power was cut to 95% of the city.[118] Thirteen tornadoes touched down; 6 were rated F1.[119] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook had a high risk.
June 7 1993 Upper Midwest[120] 40
F4
0   Forty tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[121]
June 8 1993 Great Plains, Upper Midwest[122] 58
F3
0 Fifty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[123]
June 23 1993 Kansas, Nebraska[124] 3
F2
0 Only three tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[125]
July 3 1993 Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota[126] 13
F1
0 Thirteen weak tornadoes touched down; four were rated F1.[127]
March 27 1994 Southern U.S.[128] 29
F4
40   1994 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak – Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[129] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
April 25 1994 Central U.S.[130] 28
F4
3   Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[131] In addition, there were numerous large hail reports, with hail reaching 4.50".[132]
June 14 1994 Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin[133] 3
F1
0 Three weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1.[134] Only the 1200 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
August 27 1994 Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin[135] 12
F3
4 Only high risk ever issued in August.[citation needed] Twelve tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[136]
November 27 1994 Southern U.S.[137] 18
F3
6 Eighteen tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[138]
April 17 1995 Oklahoma, Texas 21
F2
0 Primarily a derecho event. Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[139]
May 7 1995 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas 33
F3
6 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995 – Day one of a 5-day event. Thirty-three tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[140]
May 12 1995 Kansas 14
F2
0 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995. Twelve tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[141]
May 13 1995 Ohio Valley 26
F4
3   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995 – Included a major derecho.[citation needed] Twenty-six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[142]
May 17 1995 Kansas 9
F3
0 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 6–27, 1995. Nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[143]
March 18 1996 Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina[144] 21
F3
0 Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[145]
April 19 1996 Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky[146][147] 60
F3
104 mph (167 km/h) 1 Tornado outbreak sequence of April 1996. A total of 60 tornadoes touched down; six were rated F3.[148]
May 26 1996 Kansas, Oklahoma 20
F3
119 mph (192 km/h) 0 Also a derecho event.[citation needed] Twenty tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[149]
March 2 1997 Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi[150] 2
F0
0 Two weak and short lived tornadoes touched down.[151] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
May 2 1997 Mississippi, Alabama 8
F3
92 mph (148 km/h) 1 Also a derecho event.[citation needed] Eight tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[152]
July 1 1997 Upper Mississippi Valley 20
F3
109 mph (175 km/h) 0 Moderate tornado outbreak reorganized into a progressive derecho.[citation needed] Twenty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[153]
October 25 1997 Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas[154] 9
F1
0 Nine tornadoes touched down; four were rated F1.[155] Only the 1900 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
February 10 1998 Texas, Louisiana 11
F1
135 mph (217 km/h) 0 Rare winter serial derecho.[citation needed] Eleven tornadoes touched down; five were rated F1.[156]
April 8 1998 Alabama[157] 14
F5
92 mph (148 km/h) 35   Tornado outbreak of April 6–9, 1998 – F5 damage in suburban Birmingham. Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[158]
April 15 1998 Middle Mississippi Valley 21
F4
75 mph (121 km/h) 2   Tornado outbreak of April 15–16, 1998 – Day 1 of outbreak. Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[citation needed]
April 16 1998 Tennessee 41
F5
98 mph (158 km/h) 10   Tornado outbreak of April 15–16, 1998 – Day 2 of outbreak. Forty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[159]
May 9 1998 Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee[160] 5
F1
0 Five weak tornadoes touched down; one was rated F1.[161] Only the 1930 UTC Outlook included a high risk.
May 31 1998 Northeastern U.S.[162][163][164][165] 42
F3
128 mph (206 km/h) 7   Late-May 1998 tornado outbreak and derecho – Only high risk ever issued in the Northeast.[citation needed] Forty-two tornadoes touched down; six were rated F3.[166]
June 14 1998 Ohio Valley 22
F1
92 mph (148 km/h) 0 Followed by a progressive derecho.[citation needed] Twenty-two tornadoes touched down; six were rated F1.[167]
January 21 1999 Arkansas[168][169] 82
F4
8   Tornado outbreak of January 21–23, 1999; second earliest date that a high risk was issued.[citation needed] Eighty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[170]
March 8 1999 Arkansas, Louisiana 10
F2
0 Few tornadoes with some scattered hail and wind[citation needed]
April 8 1999 Iowa, Missouri, Illinois 47
F4
2   Tornado outbreak of April 8–9, 1999
May 3 1999 Oklahoma, Kansas[171] 73
F5
46   1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Highest winds ever recorded in a tornado, 301 mph (484 km/h)[172]
May 4 1999 Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas[171] 43
F3
1   1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak
May 5 1999 Southern U.S. 15
F4
3   1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Second longest streak of consecutive high risk days. Major derecho event.[citation needed]
June 5 1999 South Dakota, Nebraska[173] 21
F1
0   Event failed to consolidate with only isolated tornadoes and scattered severe wind reported. A shortwave ridge maintained a capping inversion.[174]

2000–2009Edit

There were no high risk days in 2000.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2000–2009[nb 1][nb 2]
Date Year Region Tornadoes Max rating Peak gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
April 6 2001 Texas Panhandle, Western Oklahoma, much of Kansas, and extreme southern Nebraska[175] 6
F2
124 mph (200 km/h) 1   Serial derecho with widespread wind damage[citation needed] One person was killed by lightning in Ohio.[176] Six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[177]
April 11 2001 Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois[178] 40
F3
92 mph (148 km/h) 3   Tornado outbreak of April 10–11, 2001 – Three people were killed by tornadoes.[179] Forty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[180]
June 11 2001 Southern Minnesota, Northeastern Iowa, and West-Central Wisconsin[181] 29
F2
120 mph (190 km/h) 2   Progressive derecho with widespread wind damage. Measured thunderstorm wind gust of 120 miles per hour (193 km/h) near Atwater, Minnesota.[182] Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[183]
October 13 2001 U.S. Gulf Coast[184] 32
F3
112 mph (180 km/h) 1   One person was killed by straight-line winds in Illinois.[185] Thirty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[186]
October 24 2001 Midwest[187] 25
F3
104 mph (167 km/h) 3   North Central Indiana-Michigan tornado outbreak – Plus a major serial derecho.[citation needed] One person was killed by straight-line winds in Michigan.[188] Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[189]
April 16 2002 Upper Midwest[190] 14
F3
85 mph (137 km/h) 1   One person was killed by straight-line winds in Kansas.[191] Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[192] High risk removed at 2000 UTC outlook update, prior to the initiation of the most intense severe weather.
July 31 2002 Minnesota, Wisconsin[193] 3
F0
75 mph (121 km/h) 0   No fatalities took place.[194] Three weak tornadoes touched down.[195] Only the 0600 UTC outlook included a high risk.
November 10 2002 Midwest and Southern U.S.[196] 61
F4
100 mph (160 km/h) 32   2002 Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak – No non-tornadic death took place.[197] Sixty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4 (in Northwest Ohio, outside the high risk area - the strongest tornadoes within the high risk were rated F3). Thirty-two people were killed by the outbreak. Part of a three-day outbreak that resulted in 83 tornadoes and 36 deaths.[198]
December 23 2002 Texas, Louisiana[199] 15
F1
70 mph (110 km/h) 0   One of only two high risk ever issued in December[citation needed] and second latest in the year (first was December 24, 1982). No fatalities took place.[200] Fifteen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[201]
April 6 2003 Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi[202] 18
F3
83 mph (134 km/h) 0   Eighteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[203]
May 4 2003 Central U.S.[204] 85
F4
89 mph (143 km/h) 39   May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty-five tornadoes touched down; four were rated F4.[205]
May 5 2003 Southern U.S.[206] 21
F3
104 mph (167 km/h) 0   May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[207]
May 8 2003 Kansas, Oklahoma[208] 43
F4
104 mph (167 km/h) 0   May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Forty-three tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[209]
May 10 2003 Central U.S.[210] 52
F3
92 mph (148 km/h) 0   May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Fifty-one tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[211] Also included 35% tornado probability area, above the 25% minimum threshold for a high risk.
May 15 2003 Texas, Oklahoma[212] 47
F2
92 mph (148 km/h) 0   Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F2.[213]
March 4 2004 Texas, Oklahoma[214] 25
F2
91 mph (146 km/h) 0   Reorganized into a large serial derecho[citation needed] Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[215]
May 22 2004 Nebraska, Iowa[216] 68
F4
106 mph (171 km/h) 1   May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Sixty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[217] Second of only three known times a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the other two being March 28, 1991 and April 30, 2010).
May 24 2004 Nebraska, Iowa[218] 54
F2
104 mph (167 km/h) 1   May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Also a major derecho event.[citation needed] Fifty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[219]
May 29 2004 Central U.S.[220] 80
F4
90 mph (140 km/h) 3   May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[221]
May 30 2004 Central U.S.[222] 86
F3
120 mph (190 km/h) 2   May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty-six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[223] Included 35% tornado risk area above minimum threshold of 25%.
April 11 2005 Louisiana, Mississippi[224] 3
F0
86 mph (138 km/h) 0   Three weak tornadoes touched down.[225]
June 4 2005 Central U.S.[226] 44
F2
81 mph (130 km/h) 0   Forty-four tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[227]
November 15 2005 Midwest and Southern U.S.[228] 49
F4
98 mph (158 km/h) 1   Mid-November 2005 tornado outbreak – Forty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[229]
March 12 2006 Midwest[230] 59
F4
107 mph (172 km/h) 9   March 2006 tornado outbreak sequence – Fifty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[231] One supercell storm tracked nearly 800 miles from Oklahoma to Michigan, producing many tornadoes along its path.
April 6 2006 Nebraska, Kansas[232] 12
F2
82 mph (132 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak of April 6–8, 2006 – Twelve tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[233]
April 7 2006 Southern U.S.[234] 47
F3
92 mph (148 km/h) 10   Tornado outbreak of April 6–8, 2006 – Only known high risk to include a 60% tornado contour, the highest level issued by the SPC.[235] Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[236] Also is the first of only two known occurrences (the other April 14, 2012) in which a Day 2 high risk outlook was issued.
March 1 2007 Southern U.S.[237] 36
EF4
81 mph (130 km/h) 20   February–March 2007 tornado outbreak – Thirty-six tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4.[238]
April 13 2007 Texas[239] 7
EF1
81 mph (130 km/h) 1   Only seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF1.[240]
April 24 2007 Texas[241] 23
EF3
90 mph (140 km/h) 7   Twenty-three tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[242]
May 5 2007 Nebraska, Kansas[243] 90
EF3
100 mph (160 km/h) 1   May 2007 tornado outbreak – Ninety tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.[244]
June 7 2007 Upper Midwest[245] 12
EF3
81 mph (130 km/h) 0   Reorganized into a moderate wind event[citation needed] Twelve tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[246]
February 5 2008 Middle Mississippi Valley[247] 63
EF4
100 mph (160 km/h) 48   2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak – Sixty-three tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF4.[248] One EF4 tornado in Arkansas tracked over 120 miles. One of only two high risk issued in January or February since January 21, 1999 continuing to present, with the other being January 22, 2017.
March 15 2008 Georgia, South Carolina[249] 44
EF3
100 mph (160 km/h) 2   2008 Atlanta tornado outbreak – Forty-four tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF3.[250]
May 22 2008 Kansas[251] 28
EF3
100 mph (160 km/h) 1   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 22–31, 2008 – Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[252]
May 29 2008 Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota[253] 37
EF3
85 mph (137 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 22–31, 2008 – Thirty-seven tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.[254]
June 5 2008 Midwest[255] 40
EF2
100 mph (160 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak sequence of June 3–11, 2008 – Forty tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF2.[256] Also including a 60% significant severe wind probability which meets high risk standards.
April 10 2009 Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee[257] 62
EF4
96 mph (154 km/h) 2   Tornado outbreak of April 9–11, 2009 – Sixty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4.[258]
April 26 2009 Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[259] 11
EF2
81 mph (130 km/h) 0   Eleven tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF2.[260] Despite the maintenance of the high risk through the day, the outbreak busted as a whole.
† – Value is estimated

2010–2019Edit

There were no high risk days in 2015, 2016, or 2018.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2010-2019[nb 1]
Date Year Region Tornadoes Max rating Peak gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
April 24 2010 Southern U.S.[261] 39
EF4
120 mph (190 km/h) 10[262]   Tornado outbreak of April 22–25, 2010 – 39 tornadoes were confirmed; two were rated EF4. One tornado was the second-widest in Mississippi state history, and the fourth-longest tracked in the state. Discontinued at 01Z.
April 30 2010 Arkansas[263] 27
EF3
75 mph (121 km/h) 1[264]   Tornado outbreak of April 30 – May 2, 2010 – Day 2 of outbreak. For only the third known time a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the first such occurrence was March 28, 1991) and was a slight risk for most of the day. This is the only day in which the area to eventually be in a high risk was not even in a moderate risk until 2000 UTC. 27 tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.
May 1 2010 Middle Mississippi Valley[265] 12
EF1
83 mph (134 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak of April 30 – May 2, 2010 – Only 12 weak tornadoes were confirmed. A major flood disaster also occurred from the same storm.
May 10 2010 Oklahoma, Kansas[266] 70
EF4
100 mph (160 km/h) 3   Tornado outbreak of May 10–13, 2010 – 70 tornadoes were confirmed; two were rated EF4.
May 19 2010 Oklahoma[267] 24
EF1
70 mph (110 km/h) 0   Twenty-four weak tornadoes were confirmed. Significant flooding occurred from the same storm system.
October 26 2010 Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan[268] 43
EF2
85 mph (137 km/h) 0   October 2010 North American storm complex – Event set record for the deepest extratropical low over the continental US, major derecho event.[citation needed] High risk was based on 60% significant severe wind probability, with a tornado probability of 15% falling short of high risk standards. 43 tornadoes were confirmed; five were rated EF2. Discontinued at 2000 UTC as the main activity was in the morning and early afternoon.
April 16 2011 North Carolina, Virginia[269] 53
EF3
81 mph (130 km/h) 26   Tornado outbreak of April 14–16, 2011 – 53 tornadoes touched down; six were rated EF3. Discontinued at 01Z; storms had mostly moved off the East Coast.
April 26 2011 South-Central U.S.[270] 58
EF3
110 mph (180 km/h) 0   2011 Super Outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak. 58 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.
April 27 2011 Southern U.S.[271] 218
EF5
100 mph (160 km/h) 317   2011 Super Outbreak – Day 3 of outbreak; event set record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period.[citation needed] Deadliest high-risk day on record; included a 45% tornado area which is above the minimum threshold for a high risk. Also produced first known watch (PDS tornado watch 235) with a >95% probability for all severe and significant severe hazards.[272] 218 tornadoes touched down; four were rated EF5.
May 24 2011 Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[273] 47
EF5
92 mph (148 km/h)* 14   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 – Day 4 of outbreak. Included a 45% tornado area, above minimum high risk threshold. 47 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF5. Discontinued at 01Z.
May 25 2011 Midwest[274] 94
EF4
100 mph (160 km/h) 4   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 – Day 5 of outbreak. 94 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z.
March 2 2012 Midwest and Southern U.S.[275] 64
EF4
86 mph (138 km/h) 41   Tornado outbreak of March 2–3, 2012 – Sixty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z.
April 14 2012 Central U.S.[276] 83
EF4
97 mph (156 km/h) 6   Tornado outbreak of April 13–16, 2012 – Day 2 of outbreak; Second high risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event; first Day 2 high risk was for April 7, 2006) and the first/only to date ever issued on the initial (0600 UTC) Day 2 outlook.[276][failed verification] Included 45% tornado probability above minimum threshold of 30%. 83 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4. Risk largely busted in most of Oklahoma (except far northern and western); brunt of outbreak was focused in Kansas.
June 12 2013 Midwest[277] 19
EF3
95 mph (153 km/h) 0   June 12–13, 2013 derecho series – High risk driven by 60% significant severe wind probability, with maximum tornado probability of 15%, well short of high risk level. 19 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3. Discontinued at 01Z.
November 17 2013 Midwest[278] 73
EF4
85 mph (137 km/h) 8[279]   Tornado outbreak of November 17, 2013 – An unusually far north tornado outbreak; one of five high risk days during the month of November in recorded history.[280] Third latest date in the year a high risk has been issued since 2000 (the second latest was December 23, 2002 in the Deep South), and latest date a high risk has been issued in the Midwest, surpassing previous latest of November 15, 2005. Also included a high risk level (60% significant severe) wind probability in 2000 UTC outlook. 73 tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z; storms had moved east of areas that had been in a high risk.
April 27 2014 Southwestern Arkansas[281] 16
EF4
90 mph (140 km/h) 19   Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 – Day 1 of outbreak. Small high risk area that included the cities of Little Rock, Camden, and Danville. Only one tornado touched down in the area before the high risk was discontinued in a special outlook update at 0230 UTC; this tornado was rated EF4.[282]
April 28 2014 Alabama, Mississippi[283] 50
EF4
70 mph (110 km/h) 16   Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 – Day 2 of outbreak. Numerous long-tracked and strong to violent tornadoes across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Largest tornado outbreak in central Alabama since April 27, 2011. 50 tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4. Discontinued at 01Z.[284]
June 3 2014 Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri[285] 16
EF3
100 mph (160 km/h) 0   Issued for 60% wind probability and potential derecho; tornado probability was 10%, well short of high risk level. Extreme hail/wind and some tornadoes reported; one tornado was rated EF3. High risk discontinued at 01Z.
January 22 2017 Georgia, Florida[286] 20
EF3
75 mph (121 km/h) 16   Tornado outbreak of January 21–23, 2017 – Day 2 of outbreak; issued for 30% tornado probability as well as 10% probability of EF2 or greater tornado (within 25 miles of a point) primarily in northern Florida and southern Georgia. Only the third known high risk day in January; first January high risk since 1999 (second earliest high risk day on record). The first high risk for Florida since March 1, 2007 20Z outlook, and the first on record for the Florida Peninsula.[287] Also the first high risk issued under the five-category system (which began in October 2014). Twenty tornadoes touched down during the day; two were rated EF3. Sixteen deaths resulted from the tornadoes. High risk discontinued at 01Z.
April 2 2017 Texas, Louisiana[288] 28
EF2
70 mph (110 km/h) 2   Issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. The high risk was eventually discontinued at 01Z, however the storm yielded twenty-eight tornadoes; six of which were rated EF2.[289]
April 5 2017 Georgia, South Carolina[290] 26
EF2
80 mph (130 km/h) 0   Issued for a 30% probability of tornadoes. A total of twenty-six tornadoes were confirmed, four of which were rated EF2. The high risk was discontinued at around 01Z.[291]
May 18 2017 Kansas, Oklahoma[292] 45
EF2
104 mph (167 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 15–20, 2017 – Day 4 of outbreak sequence. Issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. The outbreak was widely anticipated with a Moderate risk originally being issued on Day 2. A total of forty-five tornadoes were confirmed, three of which were rated EF2. The high risk was discontinued at 01Z.[293]
May 20 2019 Oklahoma, Texas[294] 39
EF3
94 mph (151 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 - Day 4 of outbreak. Initially issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes; expanded and upgraded at 1626Z for a 45% probability of significant tornadoes, exceeding the high risk criteria. This high risk produced the second known tornado watch with a >95% chance of all hazards (PDS Tornado Watch 199).[295] Despite the high parameters that were in place for the day, thirty nine tornadoes were confirmed, one of which was rated EF3. The high risk was discontinued at 06z.[296]
† – Value is estimated
* – Peak wind gust of 151 mph (243 km/h) measured during the EF5 El Reno tornado
** – Values are preliminary and subject to change

2020–presentEdit

There were no high risk days in 2020.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2020-2021[nb 1]
Date Year Region Tornadoes Max rating Peak gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
March 17 2021 Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas[297] 39
EF2
64 mph (103 km/h) 0   Tornado outbreak of March 16–18, 2021 – Originally issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes; upgraded to 45% tornado risk at 1606Z. A total of 39 tornadoes were confirmed, four of which were rated EF2, although little tornado activity occurred within the 45% risk area.[298]
March 25 2021 Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee[299] 20
EF4
85 mph (137 km/h) 6   Tornado outbreak sequence of March 24–28, 2021 – Issued for a 30% hatched area for tornadoes. A PDS tornado watch was issued, with a >95% chance for both tornadoes and strong tornadoes, and high probabilities for most other categories. Multiple tornado emergencies were issued for at least three different tornadoes. The high risk was discontinued at 01z and downgraded to an Enhanced risk as the storm system began weakening and the supercells began dying off, although the strongest tornado, which was rated EF4, took place a few hours after that time.[300][301]
† – Value is estimated
* – Values are preliminary and subject to change

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ a b c d e All values include events that took place outside the high risk area. Tornado and fatality totals only include incidents that occurred on the respective high risk days. Fatality totals encompass all storm-related events.
  2. ^ Starting on February 1, 2007, the Fujita Scale was replaced with the Enhanced Fujita Scale for rating tornadoes.

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