Graham T. Allison
Graham Tillett Allison, Jr. (born March 23, 1940) is an American political scientist and professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. He is renowned for his contribution in the late 1960s and early 1970s to the bureaucratic analysis of decision making, especially during times of crisis. His book Remaking Foreign Policy: The Organizational Connection, co-written with Peter Szanton, was published in 1976 and had some influence on the foreign policy of the administration of President Jimmy Carter who took office in early 1977. Since the 1970s, Allison has also been a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy, with a special interest in nuclear weapons and terrorism.
|Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs|
June 1, 1995 – July 1, 2017
|Succeeded by||Ash Carter|
|Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans|
August 6, 1993 – March 15, 1994
|Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government|
June 1, 1977 – May 30, 1989
|Preceded by||Don K. Price|
|Succeeded by||Robert D. Putnam|
Graham Tillett Allison, Jr.
March 23, 1940
Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.
Harvard University (BA)
Hertford College, Oxford (BA, MA)
Harvard University (PhD)
Allison is from Charlotte, North Carolina. He attended Davidson College for two years, then graduated from Harvard University in 1962 with an A.B. degree. Allison then completed a two-year B.A. degree at Oxford University as a Marshall Scholar in 1964 and returned to Harvard to earn a Ph.D. degree in political science in 1968. In 1979 Allison received an honorary doctorate from the Faculty of Social Sciences at Uppsala University, Sweden.
Allison has spent his entire academic career at Harvard, as an assistant professor (1968), associate professor (1970), then full professor (1972) in the department of government. He was dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government from 1977 to 1989 while the School increased in size by 400% and its endowment increased by 700%. He was Director for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs from 1995 until 2017, when he was succeeded by former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. Allison remains Douglas Dillon Professor of Government.
Allison has also been a fellow of the Center for Advanced Studies (1973–74); consultant for the RAND Corporation; member of the Council on Foreign Relations; member of the visiting committee on foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution (1972–77); and a member of the Trilateral Commission (1974–84 and 2018). He was among those mentioned to succeed David Rockefeller as President of the Council on Foreign Relations. In 2009 he was awarded the NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War from the National Academy of Sciences.
Allison has been heavily involved in U.S. defense policy since working as an advisor and consultant to the Pentagon in the 1960s. He has been a member of the Secretary of Defense's Defense Policy Board from 1985. He was a special advisor to the Secretary of Defense (1985–87) and the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans (1993–1994), where he coordinated strategy and policy towards the states of the former Soviet Union. President Bill Clinton awarded Allison the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, for "reshaping relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal". He was also an informal advisor to Michael Dukakis's 1988 presidential campaign.
Allison is best known as a political scientist for his book Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971), in which he developed two new theoretical paradigms – an organizational process model and a bureaucratic politics model – to compete with the then-prevalent approach of understanding foreign policy decision-making using a rational actor model. Essence of Decision swiftly revolutionized the study of decision-making in political science and beyond.
Allison coined the phrase Thucydides's Trap to refer to the situation that when a rising power causes fear in an established power, it escalates toward war. Thucydides wrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta." The term appeared in a full-page ad in The New York Times on April 6, 2017, the day of U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping: "Both major players in the region share a moral obligation to steer away from Thucydides's Trap." Other past examples of Thucydides's Trap include the start of World War I, due to British fears about Germany; and the War of the Spanish Succession, and the Thirty Years War, both due to French insecurity about the Hapsburg empires of Spain and Austria.
Sinologist Arthur Waldron has criticized the concept of Thucydides's Trap and Allison's application of it to US–China relations, while others have argued that Allison's interpretation ignores many Asian precedents with quite differing implications.
From 2012 to 2013, the Belfer Center (through the Wikimedia Foundation) paid an editor to cite Allison's scholarly writings in various articles. Funding for the position came from the Stanton Foundation, for which Graham Allison's wife, Liz Allison, was one of two trustees. The editor also made "supposedly problematic edits" based heavily on work of other scholars affiliated with the Belfer Center.
- "Graham Allison". www.hks.harvard.edu. Retrieved 2018-05-23.
- Stewart, Martha (March 28, 2017). "Ash Carter to head Belfer Center". The Harvard Gazette. Retrieved 6 April 2018.
- "Membership – The Trilateral Commission". trilateral.org. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
- "NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War". National Academy of Sciences. Archived from the original on 4 June 2011. Retrieved 16 February 2011.
- Gold, Allan R.; Times, Special to The New York (1988-08-31). "Dukakis Learned Lesson as Teacher". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
- "Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed". Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
- Ben Schott (January 31, 2011). "The Thucydides Trap". New York Times. Retrieved 2013-06-07.
- Zhu Dongyang (Xinhua News Agency) (April 6, 2017). "Advertisement". New York Times.
- Allison, Graham. "The Thucydides Trap". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
- "There is no Thucydides Trap". SupChina. 2017-06-12. Retrieved 2017-06-14.
- "Thucydides Trap vs Ghengis Khan". African Century Journal. Retrieved 2018-11-07.
- Tim, Sampson. "One of Wikimedia's largest donors accused in paid editing scandal". The Daily Dot. Retrieved April 2, 2017.
- Allison, Graham (2015-09-24). "The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?", The Atlantic.
- Welch, David (1993). "Graham Allison". In American Political Scientists: A Dictionary, eds G. Utter and C. Lockhart. Greenwood Press.
- 1969: "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis". American Political Science Review. 63(3): 689-718.
- 1971: Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Little, Brown.
- 1972: "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications." World Politics. 24:40-79 (with Morton H. Halperin).
- 1976: Remaking Foreign Policy: The Organizational Connection. Basic Books (with Peter Szanton).
- 1983: Sharing International Responsibility Among the Trilateral Countries. Trilateral Commission (with Nobuhiko Ushiba and Thierry de Montbrial).
- 1985: Hawks, Doves and Owls: An Agenda for Avoiding Nuclear War. W.W. Norton. (edited with Albert Carnesale and Joseph Nye Jr).
- 1989: Windows of Opportunity: From Cold War to Peaceful Competition. Ballinger (edited with William Ury).
- 1992: Rethinking America's Security: Beyond Cold War to New World Order. W.W. Norton (edited with Gregory Treverton).
- 1996: Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material. MIT Press.
- 2004: Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. Henry Holt.
- 2013: Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World. MIT Press (with Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne, and a foreword by Henry A. Kissinger).
- 2017: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.