2018 Hessian state election

A state election was held in Hesse on 28 October 2018.

2018 Hesse state election

28 October 2018
All 137 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, including 27 overhang and leveling seats 69 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Volker Bouffier Tarek Al-Wazir Priska Hinz Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel Party CDU Green SPD Last election 47 seats, 38.3% 14 seats, 11.1% 37 seats, 30.7% Seats before 47 13 37 Seats won 40 29 29 Seat change 7 16 8 Popular vote 776,254 570,260 570,166 Percentage 27.0% 19.8% 19.8% Swing 11.3% 8.7% 10.9%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Rainer Rahn René Rock Janine Wissler Jan Schalauske Party AfD FDP Left Last election 4.1% 6 seats, 5.0% 6 seats, 5.2% Seats before - 6 6 Seats won 19 11 9 Seat change 19 5 3 Popular vote 378,376 215,642 181,263 Percentage 13.1% 7.5% 6.3% Swing 9.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Minister-President before election Volker Bouffier CDU Elected Minister-President Volker Bouffier CDU

It followed the vote in Bavaria two weeks earlier. Like in Bavaria, the parties of Chancellor Angela Merkel's federal government coalition − CDU and SPD − lost more than 20 percentage points combined (CDU -11.3%, SPD -10.9%), while the Hessian CDU's coalition partner The Greens and the opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the biggest increases in votes compared to the last election in 2013. The AfD's gains (+9%) were slightly larger than those of The Greens (+8.7%), making it the greatest net winner by additional votes and seats. Smaller parties also made gains. Turn-out decreased by 5.9 points to 67.3%.

Despite suffering the biggest net loss of votes, the Christian Democratic Union maintained its leading position. The Greens and the Social Democrats finished with equal numbers of seats, although the Greens beat the Social Democrats by 66 votes. AfD, which ran for the first time for a state legislature in Hesse in 2013 and failed to win any seats, was the only new addition to the Hessian Landtag, and, by entering it, became present in all German state legislatures, a trait shared only by SPD and CDU/CSU, though the latter are technically two separate parties.

Like the preceding Bavarian election, the election in Hesse was overshadowed by federal politics and the poor condition of the German coalition government after two government crises, the "asylum quarrel" in June/July and the crisis around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September. As a consequence of the severe losses, the day after the election, chancellor Angela Merkel announced that that she will not seek re-election as party head at the party convention in Hamburg in early December and as German chancellor in 2021.

Background

The incumbent Hesse government coalition consisted of CDU and the Greens.

The regional election for Hesse, along with the Bavarian state election held just two weeks before, was widely seen as a test for the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition of Angela Merkel's fourth federal cabinet.

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	Linke	FDP	AfD	Others	Lead
2018 state election	28 Oct 2018	–	27.0	19.8	19.8	6.3	7.5	13.1	6.5	7.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24–25 Oct 2018	1,025	28	20	20	8	8	12	4	8
Civey	18–24 Oct 2018	4,467	27.0	22.0	18.5	7.5	8.0	13.0	4.0	5.0
INSA	18–22 Oct 2018	1,004	26	21	21	8	7	13	4	5
Infratest dimap	16–17 Oct 2018	1,002	26	21	20	8	9	12	4	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15–17 Oct 2018	1,035	26	20	22	8	8	12	4	4
Civey	2–12 Oct 2018	4,549	28.5	24.9	18.2	7.5	5.6	11.8	3.5	3.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24 Sep–1 Oct 2018	1,038	29	23	18	8	6	13	3	6
Civey	19–26 Sep 2018	4,509	28.6	23.0	15.8	8.8	7.6	12.4	3.8	5.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Sep 2018	1,039	32	25	15	8	6	11	3	7
Infratest dimap	13–19 Sep 2018	1,000	28	23	17	8	7	14	3	5
INSA	3–6 Sep 2018	1,039	29	24	14	8	7	14	4	5
Civey	14–30 Aug 2018	4,532	31.1	23.9	13.4	7.9	7.1	12.7	3.9	7.2
Infratest dimap	14–19 Jun 2018	1,003	31	22	14	7	7	15	4	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–11 Jun 2018	1,049	31	25	13	8	8	11	4	6
INSA	9–16 May 2018	1,067	33	24	13	8	7	11	4	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–21 Mar 2018	1,011	31	26	13	8	7	10	5	5
Allensbach	19 Dec 2017–31 Jan 2018	760	31	26	12	7	9	11	?	5
Forsa	8–22 Feb 2018	1,035	33	23	14	7	8	10	5	10
Infratest dimap	9–16 Jan 2018	1,006	31	25	13	8	8	12	3	6
2017 federal election	24 Sep 2017	–	30.9	23.5	9.7	8.1	11.5	11.9	4.4	7.3
Infratest dimap	5–10 Jan 2017	1,003	32	24	14	8	6	14	2	8
dimap	15–22 Aug 2016	1,000	36	27	13	6	4	9	5	9
Forsa	1–8 Apr 2016	1,004	33	27	11	6	7	10	6	6
Infratest dimap	12–16 Jan 2016	1,000	34	26	11	8	5	12	4	8
Forsa	17–26 Aug 2015	1,009	38	28	13	5	5	4	7	14
dimap	6–13 Jul 2015	1,003	41	27	14	6	6	2	4	14
dimap	10–14 Dec 2014	1,000	38	27	16	7	2	5	5	11
2014 European election	25 May 2014	–	30.6	30.3	12.9	5.6	4.1	9.1	7.3	0.3
Forsa	18–27 Feb 2014	1,002	39	27	12	7	5	5	5	12
2013 federal election	22 Sep 2013	–	39.2	28.8	9.9	6.0	5.6	5.6	4.9	10.4
2013 state election	22 Sep 2013	–	38.3	30.7	11.1	5.2	5.0	4.1	5.6	7.6

Results

Summary of the 28 October 2018 final election results for the Hessian Landtag

Party		Constituency					Party list					Total seats
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Seats	+/−	%
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	843,068	29.3%	−13.4	40	−1	776,910	27.0%	−11.3	0	−6	40	−7	29.2%
	Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen)	517,904	18.0%	+8.7	5	+5	570,512	19.8%	+8.7	24	+10	29	+15	21.2%
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	670,637	23.3%	−11.8	10	−4	570,446	19.8%	−10.9	19	−4	29	−8	21.2%
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	362,210	12.6%	+11.2	0		378,692	13.1%	+9.0	19	+19	19	+9	13.9%
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	205,384	7.1%	+4.1	0		215,946	7.5%	+2.5	11	+5	11	+5	8.0%
	The Left (Die Linke)	164,535	5.7%	+0.5	0		181,332	6.3%	+1.1	9	+3	9	+3	6.6%
	Others	109,332	4.0%	±0	0	±0	187,423	6.5%	±0	0	±0	0	±0	0%
Total		2,873,070	100.0%		55		2,881,261	100.0%		82		137	+27	100%

State government formation

Despite heavy losses inflicted on the party, the CDU returned to government after negotiating a coalition agreement with the Greens, the second consecutive such arrangement between the two parties. The two parties formed the narrowest possible majority in the Landtag, occupying 69 seats. As part of the agreement, the Greens increased their representation in the Cabinet, holding four of the eleven portfolios. The returned coalition only became possible after a recount of votes took place several weeks after the election, due to computer glitches which affected some election night results. Following the recount, the state election commissioner announced that compared to the provisional figures, there were no significant shifts in the percentages, and the distribution of seats in the state parliament had not changed.

External links

Media related to Hesse state election 2018 at Wikimedia Commons

• Hessischer Landeswahlleiter (Official website, German language)
• Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl in Hessen (wahlrecht.de)
• KOALITIONSVERTRAG (Text of the CDU/Greens Coalition Agreement, German)