Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Miscellaneous/2018 October 11

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October 11

Is the Indian Army now the largest in the world?

Based on the Military Balance 2018, the Indian Army with 1.2 million active troops is larger than the People's Liberation Army Ground Force with 1 million active troops, making it the largest ground force in the world. The PLA Ground Force numbers have dropped by 500,000 from recent years after the Chinese government confirmed in March 2018 that the overall reduction in the military by 300,000 was completed. I'm asking this because other than the Military Balance, I see no sources online discussing this apparent milestone. Muzzleflash (talk) 00:07, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

In my time of service in the military i learned all internals are secret and not to reveal to outsiders. Contrary we where instructed to report outsiders who start asking - so i just reported you. Just kidding with the reporting of course tho its actually true. The numbers are always shifting and i fear there is some competition in that field among some superpowers. I would guess mostly between India and China. --Kharon (talk) 13:57, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

29 Largest Armies In The World - China has the largest standing army in the world followed by India and the United States. This is based on figures "provided by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in their 2017 report". Alansplodge (talk) 17:25, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

Note that seems to refer to the People's Liberation Army which includes all branches of the Chinese military/armed forces. That said, there seems to be a conflict within our articles since People's Liberation Army Ground Force estimates an active force of just under 1 million but People's Liberation Army#Ground Force gives 1.6 million out of 2.3 million. The 2.3 million itself conflicts the lead and infobox which say 2 million after a reduction of 300,000. So perhaps the 2.3 million is outdated and predating the reduction but that still gives at least 1.3 million for the Ground Force. 1.3 million out of 2 million seems a bit more plausible to me than under 1 million out of 2 million, assuming the 2 million is correct. While I'm far from a military expert, I'm not sure how likely it is over half the Chinese military is in branches besides their land force. The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, People's Liberation Army Navy and People's Liberation Army Air Force are stated to be 100k, ~250k and ~400k respectively which again seem more likely. I don't see any figures for the People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force, I guess it could eventually be quite large, but it seems too new to be several hundred thousand. That said, it's not impossible that even if the PLA is the military with the most active duty personnel, the PLAGF is smaller than the Indian Army given different allocations of forces. Unfortunately the info we is too contradictory to say for sure.. Nil Einne (talk) 06:56, 12 October 2018 (UTC)Nil Einne (talk) 12:49, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

I thought all men in Switzerland were by de-facto part of their military? Lugnuts ^{Fire Walk with Me} 12:04, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

See Swiss Armed Forces: "The reform "Army XXI" [was adopted in 2003]... reducing manpower from 400,000 to about 200,000 personnel, 120,000 receiving periodic military training and 80,000 reservists who have completed their total military training requirements" 12:17, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

And to be clear, the figures above of mine are all for active personnel. The above article claims 8,235,000 for reservists for the PLA, which is about the size of the entire population of Switzerland (i.e. both male and female and all ages). And that the 2 million active would be in addition. Nil Einne (talk) 12:47, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Mind you, that's another area where our articles are very contradictory, in particular, I'm not sure where you'll get 8 million from Paramilitary forces of China in a way that makes sense. (That article claims 17 million but not only am I not sure how you get 17 million, I'm not sure what sensible combination you can come up with to only get 8 million.) Nil Einne (talk) 12:56, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

BTW the relative numbers for the United States Armed Forces do show that well under half theirs are in the army and China probably wants to head that way. My main doubt is whether China are likely to have such a massive navy or airforce so soon. (I.E. The more likely way they'll achieve such a balance is by continued reductions in the land force.) The typo and ads in this GlobalSecurity.org writeup may not inspire confidence (and that article doesn't either) but it looks like a somewhat decent summary [1]. I would say the answer is may be the PLAGF has fewer active personnel than the Indian Army, but we can't be sure. Nil Einne (talk) 13:18, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

@Nil Einne Thanks for your analysis. I believe it had been previously announced the land branch would drop below 1 million personnel while the overall number of personnel in the armed forces would be reduced by 300,000. I can't find a link. Is it possible that 300,000 personnel were cut (almost entirely from the land branch) and 200,000 were moved from the land branch to other branches? It is hard to believe that the other branches could expand by 200,000 personnel in 3 years. Muzzleflash (talk) 05:43, 13 October 2018 (UTC)

Link here [2]. Muzzleflash (talk) 05:55, 13 October 2018 (UTC)

@Muzzleflash: I agree such an expansion is unlikely. That's why IMO the different data contradict each other.

Also, my understanding is the below 1 million refers to the total forced in the PLA, not just the ground forces see e.g. [3]. The previous figures which suggest they had 850k in their land forces in 2013 (and 1.483 million total). The later details are mentioned in the Global Times source you linked and also the GlobalSecurity site although it's a bit confusing there. Plenty of other sources from 2013 seem to confirm the claim [4] [5] although I think possibly the 1.483 million wasn't a direct claim in the document but totaled by the other sources.

GlobalSecurity also mentions their a possible propose rebalancing composition which is also discussed here [6] including this infographic [7]. Although this is less clear in GlobalSecurity, from what SCMP says I think it was simply one proposal. Since the numbers cut in that proposal would exceed the 300k later announced [8] I guess it wasn't adopted in full. (And definitely it isn't China talking about a space force nowadays.)

But then again we also know per the earlier sources they were saying they would reduce to below 1 million. It's unclear whether this was supposed to happen after the 300k or is a future plan that will require reductions beyond the 300k. If it's the former, there seems to be a contradiction in the Chinese data since their own data suggested as said before 1.483 million before the 300k reduction. If the later, maybe they have adopted the earlier proposal mention in the SCMP or some variant of it and further reductions are coming sometime soon.

Anyway even despite this 1.483 million etc figures from the Chinese government, other sources were still giving 2 million+. This either means they disagree with the official Chinese claims, which wouldn't be particularly surprising since people are always reluctant to trust what countries say of their military, even more so when the government is fairly closed or even secretive like in China. Alternatively it's possible they're referring to some other numbers. E.g. this source [9] I used earlier seems to suggest they are getting the 2 million from 1 million in the national guard. But this is even more confusing since as per my earlier comments, what do they mean by national guard? The People's Armed Police? The PAP and People's Liberation Army militia? Something else? As I sort of mentioned before, if the numbers for the PLA are somewhat confusing, the numbers for the Paramilitary forces of China seem to be extremely so.

P.S. We seem to have what I would call a slightly weird article 2015 People's Republic of China military reform although it's not that useful here.

Nil Einne (talk) 13:30, 17 October 2018 (UTC)