Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Mathematics/2018 October 2

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October 2

Perfect games

When perfect games in major league baseball will ever be thrown again??? There were no perfect games for six consecutive years, the longest drought since the 1970s. After six perfect games were thrown during four year span between 2009 and 2012. Since the last perfecto, 21 straight no-hitters were non-perfect, the longest such streak since 1968 to 1981 in which 43 consecutive no-hitters were non-perfect. How did that big turnaround occurred that no perfect games were thrown for six years after six were thrown in little over three years? From 2009 to 2012, 6 out of 16 no-hitters were perfect games, that's 37.5%. But since then, 0 out of 21 no-hitters were perfect, dropping from 37.5% to 16.2% since Mark Buehrle's perfect game. PlanetStar 05:38, 2 October 2018 (UTC)

We can't predict the future. You could perhaps move this question to the maths desk and one of boffins can probably calculate some sort of statistical probability based on past trends. 196.213.35.147 (talk) 06:05, 2 October 2018 (UTC)

There will be one when someone pitches one. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 12:08, 2 October 2018 (UTC)

Come on Bugs, you can do better than that – this question is made for you! Is there any aspect of the modern game which makes perfect games less likely than they used to be? --Viennese Waltz 12:28, 2 October 2018 (UTC)

Statcast (2015-2018) has made offense more scientific which hinders perfect games while "bowlers" have had pitchf/x since the mid-2000s. Recently there's been emphasis on the power pitching style of "bowling", i.e. throwing the ball really fast and getting more outs from strikeouts instead of things like caught and run out. This is because powerful athletic players figured out this was the easiest way to get into the top league in the world. Less needing to learn about "bowling" finesse/strategy like more slightly built men have to do. Also easier than learning how to hit tricky balls, especially 164+ kph balls. Average and top miles an hour went up at the expense of a ligament in the arm breaking every few years and having to be surgically stitched back together. Then in the ~early 2010s the Boston Red Sox devised a strategy of tiring the "bowler" out by intentionally trying to foul. This is because while 2 fouls is 67% of the way to being out it's easier than putting the ball into play and only the first 2 fouls each players' "innings" are punished by the rules. Minimum 81 deliveries per team is needed just to end the game by strikouts so it's not too hard to get above the average deliveries per game (~150) and tire the "bowler" to the point that the substitute "bowler" would be more effective (there's no overs in baseball remember, or rather you get exactly 1 over/game but you can raise the number from 6 to whatever the coach wants). This would take some of the bite out of strong power pitchers. Peeples where were taking steroids in the early 2000s and 90s and before which explains why hitting dominated in the late 90s. Shifts are getting extremer, see the Ortiz Shift (invented 2006) or THIS!. If they shift strongly during potential perfect games (I don't know) it must be very tempting to try to put it where they ain't and make the game imperfect. Also some people think the balls are juiced - secretly made bouncier by Major League Baseball to counter the improving "bowling" effectiveness and keep easily bored Americans from losing interest. (Americans love "sixes", to tell the truth I do too) Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 21:45, 2 October 2018 (UTC)