Wikipedia:Analyzing sample size of 1001 as 97 percent

This essay refers to the common method of the polling or sampling of data with sample size as 1,001 cases, to give a margin of error of ±3.1% (97% confidence).[1][2][3] As often seen in political polls, when the size of a survey reaches 1,001 members, then the results for a wide variety of questions, or user preferences (etc.), is mathematically accurate to about a 97% confidence level. For example, in a sample of 1,001 random responses, if 90% of cases refer to e-mail spelled as "email" and only 10% use the standard hyphenated spelling (as "e-mail"), then there is a 97% probability that all cases would have 90% using the word "email".

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When searching for phrases or words in Google Search, the last page of results often covers less than 1,000 of the total webpages which match a search. However, the closer the count, of search-result pages, to being 1,001 webpages, then the closer to having a 97% predictive sample (3% margin of error) for the trends in the total of all webpages related to that search.

References

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  1. ^ "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America", www.nap.edu, 2009, webpage: NAP3 (notes "Gallup poll, August 8-11, 2005, ± 3% margin of error, sample size = 1001").
  2. ^ "Poll Position: With A Few Days to Go, Ford Takes A Lead", regator.com, 2001, webpage: Reg72 (notes "SAMPLE SIZE: 1001. MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 3.1%").
  3. ^ "2001 - Institute for Public Policy and Social Research", www.ippsr.msu.edu, 2001, webpage: MSU-SOSS (has note "Sample Size: 1001. Error: ±3.1%").


[ This essay is a quick draft to be expanded later. ]