Macneacail

January 2010

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Your recent edits

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Death toll

Hi, I saw your contributions to Talk:2010 Haiti earthquake and 2010 Haiti earthquake. While I appreciate your efforts, do note wikipedia has a strict policy against WP:Original research. If you are interested in getting your estimates out there, I suggest you contact a media organisation or some other WP:reliable source and if they publish your estimates, we may be able to include them in the article. Obviously, in the long term, higher quality sources such as journal articles will be ideal, but that's a long way off. Nil Einne (talk) 05:42, 14 January 2010 (UTC)

Original Research =

I am a bit bemused to be told that stuff I have been researching in some depth since 1999 and which has been published quite extensively in Journal articles is original. The only original content in the article was taking the standard known published data for rates of death and applying them to the published USGS felt intensity rates. My estimate typical beats the published data in terms of closer reality and accuracy by several days. I have done this for every major earthquake since 2000.

I knew within an hour of the event that the major problem would be hospitalizations and amputations. This is not original is merely the application of known knowledge. However, the people planning the event need to know this fact.

There are only a few people in the world that do this research, I am one of them, none that I am aware of publish in the media, maybe it is an academic thing.

My current estimate for peak century death toll is 600,000. It can occur in one of 125 places. Most are located in the developed world, twenty five in the CEUS. I advised the NHS in August to expect a death toll like 250,000 in a city of 3 million from a close in event every 30 years and that the next one was due.

Good luck with the WP John Nichols