User:WAclimate/Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI)

Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI)

What is IOCI?

The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, ‘IOCI’, is a climate research partnership between the West Australian State government, Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

It is a strategic program of research and information transfer aimed at supporting decision-making in climate affected industries in Western Australia.

The vision of IOCI is to empower the State of Western Australia with the best available scientific knowledge for adapting to climate change.

Further information can be found at [1]

Why the title?

It is well-known that the Pacific Ocean plays a strong role in modulating Australia’s climate. To distinguish the fact that IOCI was about Western Australia, and not the east, and also initially because it was believed that the Indian Ocean might play a strong role in driving Western Australia climate, the Indian Ocean was included in the title.

When did IOCI begin?

IOCI began in January 1998, with the first stage (IOCI1) lasting 5 years. The second stage (IOCI2) began in July 2003 and ran for three years until June 2006. The third stage (IOCI3) began in January 2008 and is to run until December 2012.

What were the major research questions?

During the late 1960s early winter rainfall in the south-west of Western Australia declined as did the interannual variability. Surface water supplies also declined as a consequence of this climate change.

IOCI1 was established to pursue the overlapping research and development interests of several economic sectors. It sought to develop an improved understanding of and definition of interannual and interdecadal climate variability . By: Understanding the rainfall decline in the late 1960s - improve datasets - ‘detect’ change – how unusual is it? - behaviour of extremes throughout the decline Understanding climate variability in the Indian Ocean. IOCI1 also aimed to enable operational seasonal outlooks with sufficient skill for effective decision making.

IOCI2 aimed to begin to attribute the climate changes detected in IOCI1 by asking: What drove the late 1960s rainfall decline in SWWA? Was it: anthropogenic climate change, land clearing, multi-decadal natural variability, or Antarctic sea-ice extent? Also: What is the best baseline to use for management decisions?

Other, related questions were also posed and answered through collaborative contributions on topics such as paleoclimate, river flows, groundwater, salinity, sea temperature, sea level, and the Leeuwin current.

IOCI3 expanded beyond the original basic research question posed back in 1998 and extended its focus beyond the rainfall decline in the south-west to include analysis of both rainfall and temperature variability and change across the whole state. IOCI3 also includes analysis of tropical cyclone variability in the region also.

What has been discovered and produced?

High-quality datasets

• New high-quality rainfall, temperature, cloud datasets • New gridded, fine-scale temperature, rainfall and water availability data • Web-based access to these products [2]

Rainfall in the south-west

• The rainfall decline in the late 1960s in south-west Western Australia occurred in early winter, primarily on the west coast. It was a step shift to a new rainfall regime. • Rainfall declines are now evident across all of the south-west. There appears to have been a further downturn in rainfall in the late 1990s. • The large-scale circulation and local weather patterns match this rainfall decline. July storms are less common due to fewer low pressure systems and more high pressure systems. . • These circulation changes we have seen are reflected in climate model projections. • Increasing atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases have contributed to the rainfall decline . Land-clearing may have also played a role. • New, faster downscaling models have been developed allowing rainfall amount and occurrence to be determined. The number of winter rain days will decrease by 17% by 2030 from a 1960-1990 baseline.

Rainfall in the north-west

Our knowledge of the causes of rainfall variability in the north-west has improved during IOCI3, along with our tools (climate models) to explore this. However, there is still a great deal more work to be done in this area.

Tropical cyclones

Researchers have developed two-week lead time forecasts [3] Research suggests that in future we will experience a similar number of tropical cyclones. However, they are likely to be more intense.

Who is involved?

The research partners: Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

During the first stage a key set of stakeholders contributed directly to the project. The project parters were: West Australian Commerce & Trade, Water & Rivers, Agriculture, Water Corporation, Conservation and Land Management, Environmental Protection, State Emergency Services, Bureau of Meteorology Regional Office.

During the second stage the project parters were: West Australian Premier & Cabinet, Environment, Agriculture, Water Corporation, Conservation and Land Management, Fire and Emergency Services, Forest Products, Fisheries, Planning & Infrastructure, Bureau of Meteorology Regional Office.

The third stage is centrally managed by the West Australian state government and the results are thus freely available for all state departments.

External links

• example.com