User:Mike Young/Sandbox12

Libya Decision Workshop: Forecasts from session at conference of Wargamers 09/07/2011

Future politics of Libya: Forecast of what will happen in the next few weeks (before Sept 2011)

• Gaddafi does not leave the country
• Gaddafi offers to go into internal exile
  • Gaddafi goes to goto south of the country / around his home town
  • Gaddaffi stays in luxurious surroundings rather than in prison
  • Option of internal exile accepted by the NTC
  • Gaddafi to have no political power
• Fewer demands that Gaddafi go to the Hague
• Berbers gain control of Zuwarah
• Cease fire declared
  • Gaddafi loses effective control of Tripoli with minimal fighting
  • NTC eastern forces do not "capture Tripoli"
  • Berber forces do not "capture Tripoli"
  • Power vacuum in Tripolitania immediately after cease fire.
  • Allies cease to supply the Berbers militarily
• Demands by Berbers and Tripoli for more regional autonomy
• No ground intervention by UN forces
• Demand by Fezzan for more regional autonomy
  • Some demands met by NTC, but not others
• UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
  • These peackeepers from Muslim or African Nations
  • First deployed to Tripoli
  • Then deployed to Misrata
    • Misrata distances itself from IRC once under UN control
• Oil to be treated as a national rather than regional asset.
• Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
• NCT become less Cyrancinia focussed
  • Powerful Representative from Fezzan Area invited onto NTC
  • Powerful Representative of Berbers invited onto NTC
  • Powerful Representative of Tripoli Liberals invited onto NTC
  • General Abdul Fatah Younis removed from NTC
• Jamaal remains in NTC
• Jabil remains in NTC
• Separate Political Party formed by Tripoli Liberals
• Separate Political Party formed by Berbers
  • Berber and Tripoli Liberal parties form coalition
  • Berber war hero leads his party
• Freedom of press announced by National Transitional Council
• NTC attempts to control administration of Tripoli (eg pay teachers, doctors)
• NTC becomes de facto government in Tripoli despite some internal opposition
• Government based on Islamic Principles remains.

(This is NOT our forecast of the outcome, but rather the "Null case" which the accuracy of our forecasts should be compared to. It assumes nothing happens)

• Gaddafi does not leave the country
• Gaddafi does not go into internal exile
  • If he does go then he is not accepted by the NTC
• Demands that Gaddafi goto the Hague for war crimes remain
• Berbers do not goin control of Zewarah
• No cease fire
  • Allies continue to provide air support
  • Allies continue to fly in supply to Berbers
• Gaddafi remains in control of Tripoli
• No UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
  • if deployed not from anywhere in particular
• Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
• NCT remains just as Cyrancinia focussed as it is now
• Power in NCT remains effectively unchanged
• Jamaal remains in NTC
• Jabil remains in NTC
• No new political parties formed by Tripoli Liberals
• No new political parties formed by Berbers
• No freedom of press announcement by NTC
• NCT does nothing about control of administration of Tripoli
• Government based on Islamic Principles remains