The October 11-13 YouGov Poll shows Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump 52%-42%.[1]
Week 8 Assignment:
For this week's draft I am going to continue with the idea I had last week to add in current polling information to the 2020 Presidential election article. My goal will be to update this information with polling data from FiveThirtyEight.com each week. Updating often will give me a reason to stay on top of my editing and will also be useful for any reader on Wikipedia to get up-to-date information on the election without having to figure out the answers on their own. Because the information will be updated and not permanently on the article, it will be important that I include the date of the poll or prediction each time I update the document.
According to FiveThirtyEight as of October 21, 2020, Joe Biden is likely to win the 2020 presidential election. In the course of thousands of simulations by the polling website, former Vice President Biden defeats President Trump 86 times out of 100, while the President wins 13 out of 100.[2]
Week 10 Assignment: (Decided to write about a different topic as the polling is less relevant to the article after votes were casted. All edits are still contained in this sandbox because the main article is locked until further notice.)
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Despite hundreds of thousands of votes remaining uncounted, President Trump declared victory at 2:30am on November 4, as major networks reported his lead at nearly 625,000 votes[3]. Trump also declared victory in North Carolina and Georgia, despite many ballots being uncounted.[383] Fox News projected Biden would win Arizona at 11:20 p.m. EST on election night, and the Associated Press called the state at 2:50 a.m. EST on November 4;[384][385] however, several other media outlets concluded the state was too close to call.[386][387] By the evening of November 4, the Associated Press reported that Biden had secured 264 electoral votes by winning Michigan and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada remaining uncalled.[388] Biden had a 1% lead in Nevada[389] and a 2.3% lead in Arizona by November 5,[390] needing only to win Nevada and Arizona or win Pennsylvania to obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the election.[388]
Each state has different laws and procedures for counting votes. Pennsylvania and Georgia, two of the main battleground states, count mail-in ballots after completing the count of in-person election day votes. Because the Biden campaign encouraged voters to utilize absentee ballots and avoid risking COVID-19 spread at the polls, and the Trump campaign encouraged in-person voting, these state rules led to a "red mirage". This resulted in President Trump seeming to have large leads on election night. When the mail-in and early votes began to be counted, Joe Biden closed the gaps in most of the major battleground states because the majority of mail-in ballots were Democratic.[4]. While it looked on election night as though President Trump had a lead in several major states, final results indicated that Biden held significant leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
On November 5, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by the Trump campaign to stop vote-counting in Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign had alleged that its observers were not given access to observe the vote, but during the hearing, its lawyers admitted that its observers were already present in the vote-counting room.[391] Also that day, a state judge dismissed another lawsuit by the Trump campaign that alleged that in Georgia, late-arriving ballots were counted. The judge ruled that no evidence had been produced to show that the ballots were late.[392] Meanwhile, in Michigan a state judge dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[393]
The Trump campaign continued to file lawsuits in various states, alleging voter fraud. One lawsuit centered on a Pennsylvania postal worker who claimed that he was told by leaders in the postal service to backdate ballots, thus illegally allowing mail-in votes that arrived more than three days after the election. Days later, the postal worker formally recanted his statements, effectively ending that particular legal action.[5] Of 41 lawsuits with ability to affect Trump's electoral standing in different states, 27 of them were withdrawn, dismissed, settled, or denied as of November 29.[6]
It is highly unlikely that any legal action will change the outcome of the election. While recounts and pending lawsuits can affect vote counts in certain states, Joe Biden's lead in the electoral college is significant enough to hold up to almost any minor changes. In official results, Biden currently holds 306 electoral votes[7]. A candidate needs only 270 electoral votes to win.
- ^ Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (2018-06-28). "Latest Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-10-14.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Silver, Nate (2020-08-12). "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-10-22.
- ^ Burns, Alexander; Martin, Jonathan (2020-11-04). "As America Awaits a Winner, Trump Falsely Claims He Prevailed". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-11-08.
- ^ "Beware the 'blue mirage' and the 'red mirage' on election night". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-11-08.
- ^ Boburg, Shawn; Bogage, Jacob. "Postal worker recanted allegations of ballot tampering, officials say". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2020-11-11.
- ^ "Trump's election fight includes over 40 lawsuits. It's not going well". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-11-29.
- ^ Kommenda, Niko; Voce, Antonio; Hulley-Jones, Frank; Leach, Anna; Clarke, Seán; Kommenda, Niko; Voce, Antonio; Hulley-Jones, Frank; Leach, Anna. "US election results 2020: Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump to win presidency". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2020-11-29.