In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by a particular belligerent, or to casualties in the conflict as a whole.
A low ratio is generally perceived as desirable. Some commentators regard a low ratio among casualties inflicted by a particular belligerent as evidence for that belligerent's efforts to minimize enemy civilian casualties, which may indicate its morality and adherence to the laws of armed conflict. Others stress that factors independent of a belligerent's efforts, such as the conflict involving urban warfare, can raise the ratio. A further argument is that militants can manipulate their enemies' ratio by deliberately mixing with civilians, and are motivated to do so to gain public sympathy. Calculation of the ratio may be complicated by uncertainty regarding the total number of people killed, the proper classification of people as civilians or combatants, or both.
In 2007, Israel achieved a ratio of 1:30, or one civilian casualty for every thirty combatant casualties, in its airstrikes on militants in the Gaza Strip.[1] According to Professor Alan Dershowitz of Harvard Law School, "No army in history has ever had a better ratio of combatants to civilians killed in a comparable setting".[2]
Overview edit
According to a 2001 study by the International Committee of the Red Cross, the civilian-to-soldier death ratio in wars fought since the mid-20th century has been 10:1, meaning ten civilian deaths for every soldier death.[3]
Mary Kaldor writes that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio was 8:1 in wars in the 1990s, meaning eight civilian deaths for every combatant death. This constitutes a reversal of the ratio at the turn of the 20th Century, which stood at 1:8, meaning only one civilian death for every eight combatant deaths.[4][dubious ]
Mexican Revolution (1910–20) edit
Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.[5][6]
Korean War edit
The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10. [7]
Chechen wars edit
During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 43:10. The combined ratio for both wars is 76:10. The casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unrealiable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unrealiable. [8]
NATO in Yugoslavia edit
According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, for every Serbian soldier killed by NATO in 1999 (the period in which Operation Allied Force took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".[9]
Coalition forces in the Iraq War edit
According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces had killed at least 22,668 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating an essential civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 1:2.[10]
US drone strikes in Pakistan edit
According to a report by Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution, United States drone strikes in Pakistan kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that this ratio constitutes a humanitarian tragedy and creates dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.[11]
Israel in the Israel-Gaza conflict edit
Israel's military activities in the Israel-Gaza conflict have included a campaign of targeted assassinations of militants in the Gaza Strip since 2000, as well as several concentrated operations, the most severe of which was Operation Cast Lead during the 2008–2009 Gaza War.
Targeted assassinations edit
The civilian casualty rate of the targeted assassinations was surveyed by Haaretz military journalist Amos Harel. In 2002 and 2003, the ratio was 1:1, meaning one civilian killed for every militant killed. Harel called this period "the dark days" because of the relatively high civilian death toll as compared to later years. He attributed this to an Israeli Air Force (IAF) practice of attacking militants even when they were located in densely populated areas. While there were always safety rules, argued Harel, these were "bent" at times in view of the target's importance.[1]
The civilian casualty ratio dropped steeply to 1:28 in late 2005, meaning one civilian killed for every 28 militants killed. Harel credited this drop to the new IAF chief Eliezer Shkedi's policies. The ratio rose again in 2006 to 1:10, a fact that Harel blamed on "several IAF mishaps". However, in 2007 and 2008 the ratio dropped to an unprecedented level of less than 1:30, or 2–3 percent of the total casualties being civilian.[1] Figures showing an improvement from 1:1 in 2002 to 1:30 in 2008 were also cited by Jerusalem Post journalist Yaakov Katz.[10]
Professor Alan Dershowitz of Harvard Law School stated that the 2008 figure of 1:30 represents the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio in history in the setting of combating terrorism. Dershowitz criticized the international media and human rights organizations for not taking sufficient note of it. He also argued that even this figure may be misleading because not all civilians are innocent bystanders.[2]
In October 2009, Dershowitz stated that the ratio for Israel's campaign of targeted assassinations stood at 1 civilian for every 28 terrorists. He argued that "this is the best ratio of any country in the world that is fighting asymmetrical warfare against terrorists who hide behind civilians. It is far better than the ratio achieved by Great Britain and the United States in Iraq or Afghanistan, where both nations employ targeted killings of terrorist leaders." Regarding the practices which might have led to this record and the reasons the civilan death rate nevertheless remained above zero, Dershowitz cited Col. Richard Kemp's statements on the Gaza War:[12]
[f]rom my knowledge of the IDF and from the extent to which I have been following the current operation, I don’t think there has ever been a time in the history of warfare when any army has made more efforts to reduce civilian casualties and deaths of innocent people than the IDF is doing today in Gaza... Hamas, the enemy they have been fighting, has been trained extensively by Iran and by Hezbollah, to fight among the people, to use the civilian population in Gaza as a human shield... Hamas factor in the uses of the population as a major part of their defensive plan. So even though as I say, Israel, the IDF, has taken enormous steps...to reduce civilian casualties, it is impossible, it is impossible to stop that happening when the enemy has been using civilians as human shields.
Gaza War edit
Several analysts have attempted to calculate the Israel Defense Force's cvilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead during the Gaza War. All have noted that the ratio differs significantly depending on which figures are used regarding the total number of casualties and their identity. The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.
Journalist Yaakov Katz states in The Jerusalem Post that the ratio is 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures. Katz attributes the IDF's low ratio in the Gaza War and in the year preceding it to Israel's investment in special weapons systems, including small smart bombs that minimize collateral damage, and to an upscaled Israeli effort to warn civilians to flee areas and to divert missiles at the last moment if civilians entered a planned strike zone. Katz notes that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he states is unprecedented in modern warfare.[10]
Journalist and commentator Evelyn Gordon writes in Commentary that the civilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead was 39 percent (2:3) according to Israeli figures; 56 or 74 percent according to B'Tselem's figures, depending on whether 248 Hamas policemen are considered combatants or civilians; and 65 or 83 percent according to the figures of the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights. Gordon notes that all of these ratios are lower than the normal civilian-to-combatant wartime fatality ratio as given by the Red Cross, and states that the comparison shows that the IDF was unusually successful at minimizing civilian casualty rates. She concludes by charging that terrorists fight from among civilians because they know that the inevitable civilian casualties will result in opprobrium for their victims who dare to fight back, and that this norm will not change as long as this modus operandi remains profitable.[13]
See also edit
References edit
- ^ a b c Amos Harel, Pinpoint attacks on Gaza more precise, Haaretz (unknown date)
- ^ a b Dershowitz, Alan (January 3, 2008). "Targeted Killing Is Working, So Why Is The Press Not Reporting It?". The Huffington Post.
- ^ Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew W. Lehren, A Grim Portrait of Civilian Deaths in Iraq, New York Times 22-10-2010
- ^ Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars, Stanford University Press 1998, p. 9
- ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
- ^ Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
- ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.
- ^ Zürcher, Christoph. The post-Soviet wars: rebellion, ethnic conflict, and nationhood in the Caucasus. p. 100.
- ^ Michael Oren, UN report a victory for terror, Boston Globe 24-09-2009
- ^ a b c Yaakov Katz, Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics, Jerusalem Post 29-10-2010
- ^ Daniel L. Byman, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Brookings 14-07-2009
- ^ Alan Dershowitz, The Hypocrisy of "Universal Jurisdiction", Hudson Institute 06-10-2009
- ^ Evelyn Gordon, WikiLeaks and the Gaza War, Commentary 25-10-2010